Market Insight
SPRING 2018

Annual report
Year 2018

Market Insight
FALL 2018

Market Insight
WINTER 2018-2019

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• 2017 has been a record year for the Eurozone, with a GDP growth of 2.4%. Forecasts show a sustained economic growth in Europe over the coming years.
• The activity of certain traditional sectors of IWT such as building materials and steel segment is assumed to expand in the next years.
• The energy sector, a decisive segment for inland shipping, is restructuring progressively towards renewable sources of energy such as biomass. This represents an important potential of growth for the IWT sector.

 

General Economic conditions

And Outlook in Europe

EVOLUTION OF THE TOTAL POPULATION IN THE EUROPEAN UNION – PAST EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK (IN MILLION PERSONS)


Source: Oxford Economics

 

With decreasing fertility rates in developed countries, the expected evolution of the size of the European population is characterised by a saturation curve, which will reach its peak in the 2020s and 2030s. This will also have consequences on economic growth, especially potential growth.

Potential output is, in contrast to GDP, not the actual aggregate production level of an economy, but its potential level. It is determined by the aggregate capital stock, aggregate labour supply and the degree of technological progress. It is therefore also influenced by population growth. Forecasts point to an average yearly growth rate for potential output of around 1% per annum in Germany, France, and the Netherlands. This would mean a lower rate compared to the time period 2000-2017 – which is also explained by the weak demographic evolution of Europe.

 

+1% growth of potential output per year until 2040

 

POTENTIAL OUTPUT – PAST EVOLUTION AND OUTLOOK (BILLION EURO, 2010 PRICES = 100)


Source: Oxford Economics

 

Economic Conditions

of Iwt-related Sectors

EU GROSS OUTPUT OF ACTIVITIES CONTRIBUTING TO INLAND WATERWAYS GOODS TRANSPORT (EU GROSS OUTPUT IN BILLION REAL US$ – 2010 US$)

Source: Oxford Economics, CCNR analysis

 

The construction sector is assumed to expand its activity in Europe, fostered by important trends such as urbanisation, strong demographic growth in certain regions and cities, and immigration. Wood and wood products are promoted by the greening of the energy sector, which increases the demand for biomass. Special attention to biomass and its role in inland waterway transport (IWT) is given in the chapter “Outlook”.

There is a positive outlook for the production of metals, although it varies in strength from one country to another. The country with the highest steel production in Europe is Germany. Its steel production has recovered better from the economic crisis than the steel production in France. Moreover, the outlook for the German steel production is more growth orientated, while it is more stagnation orientated in France.

 

GROSS OUTPUT OF METAL PRODUCTS (IN BILLION REAL US$ – 2010 US$)

Source: Oxford Economics, CCNR analysis

Annual report
Year 2018

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Market Insight
FALL 2018

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Market Insight
WINTER 2018-2019

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