• Germany (913), the Netherlands (510), France (365), Italy (352) and Switzerland (255) register the highest number of day trip vessels in Europe.

• Day trip vessels are an important field for the introduction of new clean technologies. For instance, a 38-meter day trip vessel was introduced on the Seine in Paris in 2018, equipped with 100% electric propulsion.

• Overall, the number of day trip vessels in Rhine countries is rather stable. In large cities, the size of the fleet mostly follows an increasing trend.

 

 

INTRODUCTION

 

• Passenger transport on inland waterways has three main segments of activity: river cruises, day trips on rivers/canals (including ferry traffic) and day trips on lakes. According to Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2], the five countries in Europe with the highest turnover in passenger transport are (share of European turnover in percentage points): Switzerland (23.3%), Germany (20.3%), Italy (15.5%), France (13.9%), the Netherlands (8.4%). According to Eurostat definitions, turnover in passenger navigation on inland waterways contains turnover generated by river cruise vessels, day trip vessels on rivers/canals and ferries, and day trip vessels on lakes. Separate turnover figures are not available.
• There are currently no Eurostat data on the number of passenger vessels or on the number of passengers on inland waterways (In 2019, pilot studies were launched by Eurostat in order to develop databases in the future). Therefore, a statistical analysis of the national databases of European countries was undertaken, and revealed that Switzerland, Germany, Italy, France, and the Netherlands not only have the highest turnover of all European countries, but also the highest number of day trip vessels (on rivers/canals and lakes taken together, including ferries).
• For Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, France and Switzerland, separate vessel databases for day trip vessels are available. For other countries, in Central and Eastern Europe, only the total number of passenger vessels is indicated by statistical offices or administrations. Nevertheless, it is possible to determine the number of day trip vessels for these countries as well, in an indirect way, by taking into account the number of river cruise vessels for each European country (see chapter on river cruises).
• By applying this indirect calculation, information on the number of day trip vessels in Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania results as follows: out of 117 passenger vessels in Poland, 116 are day trip vessels. The number of passengers was 1.26 million in 2017, compared to 1.28 million in 2016 and 1.1 million in 2015.
• In the Czech Republic, there were 88 passenger vessels in 2017, compared to 85 in 2016 and 78 in 2015. Out of the 88 passenger vessels in the Czech Republic ‘s register in 2017, 87 are day trip vessels and one is a cruise vessel. In Slovakia, a country with not many lakes, there are currently less than 20 passenger vessels registered.
• The passenger vessels in Hungary, Slovakia and Romania are all day trip vessels, as none of these countries has a river cruise vessel (see chapter on river cruises). Hungary has a rather high number of day trip vessels (132 in 2017), due to the Danube and the Lake Balaton. The number of day trip passengers on the Danube has decreased in recent years from 709, 000 passengers in 2005 to 216,000 passengers in 2016 due to rising ticket prices. However, the number of passengers on Lake Balaton has remained rather constant over the years and counted 531,000 passengers in 2016 (Source: Information provided by the Hungarian Statistical Office). In Romania, 75 passenger vessels were registered in 2017 and 2016, and 65 in 2015 (Source: Romanian Statistical Institute).
• Short profiles of the top five countries for the number of registered day trip vessels in Europe:

 

 

• Germany not only has many rivers, but also many lakes, especially near the Alps and in the north-eastern parts of the country, but less lake vessels registered than in Switzerland or Italy. On the other hand, the number of day trip vessels active on rivers or canals in Germany is the highest in Europe.

 

 

• The country holds an important position in the day trip vessel segment, where its importance is maybe best shown by the famous day trip vessels in Amsterdam. We will see that the age structure of the Dutch day trip vessels is very similar to that of the German day trip vessels on rivers and canals.

 

 

• The three segments of passenger navigation are all present in France, but the river segment is the most important. Day trip vessels in Paris, for example, transport more than 7 million passengers per year. Paris has a share of 70% in terms of passengers transported on French day trip vessels.

 

 

• Switzerland has the highest number of day trip vessels on lakes in Europe. Day trip vessels on rivers, however, play only a very small role. Day trip vessels following a scheduled service on lakes are integrated in the public transport system. More than 11 million passengers are counted each year on these vessels.

 

 

• The strongest focal point of the country in terms of passenger transport is the lake segment, where Italy has the second highest number of day trip vessels navigating on its lakes. The demand analysis shows that the number of passengers is as high as in Switzerland for this segment. Despite the fact that day trip vessels active on rivers only play a minor role, it is worth nothing that passenger transport on the canals in Venice is not negligible for Italy’s economy (161 vessels active in Venice).

 

DAY TRIP VESSELS ON RIVERS AND CANALS

 

 

• The two largest German cities, Berlin and Hamburg, play an important role in this segment, as does the Rhine. In Berlin, 127 day trip vessels were registered in 2017 with a home port in Berlin and thus operating on Havel and Spree as well as on the canals in and around Berlin. Hamburg follows close behind, with 105 vessels on the Alster and Elbe. Berlin and Hamburg are also the two German regions where the number of registered day trip vessels has increased the most during the last 10 years: between 2007 and 2017, the number of day trip vessels increased by 25 in Hamburg, and by 14 in Berlin. In terms of capacity (passenger seats), Hamburg registered the strongest growth (+26%) in Germany between 2007 and 2017.
• In this market segment, the season has been extended from an “Easter to October” scheme by offering boat trips before Christmas. This had not only a positive effect on turnover, but also on the persons working in the sector, who are now mostly hired on a permanent basis, compared to seasonal job contracts in the past.
• In general, day trip vessels are also an important field for the introduction of new clean technologies. Ship owners currently favour the replacement or conversion of existing day trip vessels rather than new construction. It might be explained by the enforcement of new European technical requirements (from 2008 to 2018) but also important uncertainties regarding alternative propulsion systems in the light of environmental regulations in urban centres.

 

NUMBER OF DAY TRIP VESSELS ON RIVERS AND CANALS IN GERMANY PER REGION

Source: CCNR analysis based on German vessel database (ZBBD)

 

• The Rhine accounts for 31,155 passenger places. Hereby, the romantic Middle Rhine (famous for its castles and small towns) holds 55% of these capacities, the lower Rhine (with large cities such as Cologne or Düsseldorf) 40% and the Upper Rhine 5%.
• Comparing these figures with the graph on the number of vessels above, it can be noted that the average number of passenger seats per day trip vessel differs from one region to another. Rhine vessels have a rather large average capacity of 266 seats, similar to vessels on the Moselle & Saar (279). Danube vessels are the largest, with an average of 347 passenger seats in 2017.
• In Berlin (168) and Hamburg (187), the day trip vessels are much smaller, due to the restricted size of waterways, locks and low bridges in cities (for example, the bridges in the Speicherstadt in Hamburg, built in 1888).

 

GERMAN REGIONS WITH HIGHER CAPACITIES OF DAY TRIP VESSELS (PASSENGER SEATS) IN 2017 COMPARED TO 2007, INCLUDING GROWTH RATE (%)

Source: calculation CCNR based on German vessel database (ZBBD)

 

 

 

• In the Netherlands, day trip vessels represent an integral part of tourism, especially in Amsterdam with its small canals (Grachten), an UNESCO world heritage site since 2010. According to the city of Amsterdam (https://amsterdam.org/nl/feiten-en-cijfers.php), 165 of these canals exist in the city, with a total length of 75 km. The oldest Gracht dates from 1385. There are 14 locks in the network and 1,282 bridges and, according to the city’s information, the number of rondvaartboten (day trip vessels) amounts to Amsterdam 110.
• According to the IVR vessel database, more day trip vessels are active in Amsterdam: 143 day trip vessels (The following vessel types of the IVR database were hereby taken into account: day cruise ships, passenger ships Amsterdam type, passenger ferries, passenger ships < 45 m) in the IVR database have Amsterdam as home port, or are owned by companies which have their headquarters in Amsterdam. These 143 vessels represent 28% of the total number of day trip vessels in the country.
• The comparison with the age structure of the German day trip vessels (on rivers/canals) reveals a similarity in the overall picture (see following graph). Data on the years of construction (source: IVR) show that only a very small part of the Dutch day trip vessels were built after 2009, which is explained by ship owners currently favouring the replacement or conversion of existing day-trip vessels rather than new construction.

 

AGE STRUCTURE OF DAY TRIP VESSELS ON RIVERS OR CANALS IN THE NETHERLANDS AND IN GERMANY (%)

Source: CCNR analysis based on IVR database (NL) and ZBBD (DE)

 

• With regard to demand, there are no official data on the passengers transported over the whole country, but figures provided by the city of Amsterdam are available.

 

NUMBER OF PASSENGERS ON DAY TRIP VESSELS IN AMSTERDAM (IN MILLION PERSONS)

Source: City of Amsterdam (Kerncijfers Amsterdam)

 

• An increasing trend is observed for the years since 2010. The peak in the year 2016 correlates with a strong fall in another major European city – Paris. Indeed, passenger transport in Paris and the surrounding Ile-de-France region decreased strongly in 2016, mainly due to the terrorist attacks. The combined results for both cities show that crisis-situations have an impact on tourists’ behaviour, who tend to switch from one destination to another.

 

 

• The average capacity per vessel differs considerably between Paris (233 passenger seats) and all other parts of France (78). On the national level, where the overall average value amounts to 130, the strong differences in the size of vessels and in touristic concepts is therefore hidden.

 

NUMBER OF DAY TRIP VESSELS ON RIVERS AND CANALS IN FRANCE PER REGION

Source : Voies Navigables de France (VNF)

 

• The share of Paris and the surrounding region of Ile-de-France is 34% in terms of number of vessels, 61% in terms of capacity (passenger seats) and 70% in terms of passengers transported. This confirms not only the larger size but also the higher degree of utilisation of the Paris day trip vessels. More than half of all passengers in Paris (61%) were foreign tourists in 2017, while this share was only 54% in 2014.
• The following figure on the passenger demand in Paris shows the strong decrease of passengers in the wake of the terrorist attacks in Paris in 2015 and 2016, as mentioned above. Passengers now seem to have returned after these crisis years. This is also true for river cruise vessels in Paris (see chapter on river cruises).

 

NUMBER OF PASSENGERS ON DAY TRIP VESSELS IN PARIS AND ILE-DE-FRANCE REGION (IN MILLION PERSONS)

Source : Voies Navigables de France (VNF)

 

• In Paris, some new developments of the fleet should be mentioned as well: trimaran vessels are being developed, with an electric propulsion, and equipped with audioguides (instead of loudspeakers) in 14 languages, including the languages of three BRIC countries (Hindi, Russian, Chinese).
• Innovation knows no limits. In 2018, a new, 38-meter-long vessel for the Seine was introduced in Paris, equipped with 100% electric propulsion (no noise, no vibrations), and hosting a Michelin star restaurant. The prices are 100 Euro for a lunch menu with three courses, and up to 500 Euro for dinner, with five courses and wines included (See the article in Le Parisien (August 30th 2018): Alain Ducasse lance son navire ecolo et gastronomique sur la Seine). The rising share of rather wealthy foreign tourists from BRIC countries on the boats in Paris supports the business idea of this company.
• All other French regions taken together hosted 3.2 million tourists on their boats in 2017. Among these, there are also 0.77 million passengers on day trip vessels in Strasbourg (Source: Batorama). The fleet in Strasbourg includes 10 boats in 2019, each with a capacity of 90-100 seats. The company Batorama plans to acquire other small boats, the so-called “river taxis”, for luxury discovery trips in small groups. Among other projects led by the company, since 2014, it has organised a city tour which includes a visit to the European Parliament.

 

NUMBER OF PASSENGERS ON DAY TRIP VESSELS IN ALL OTHER REGIONS IN FRANCE (IN MILLION PERSONS)

Source : Voies Navigables de France (VNF)

 

DAY TRIP VESSELS ON LAKES

 

 

• In Switzerland, 150 day trip vessels (of which 142 are active on lakes) belong to the category of public transport. This means that these vessels are open to the public, follow a scheduled service, and therefore require a federal licence (Source: Information provided by the Federal Office for Statistics of Switzerland. The large majority of day trip vessels in Switzerland are active on lakes. Eight vessels are active on the Swiss part of the Rhine and two on the Rhone). The companies that own and operate these vessels can be public or private. Due to the scheduled services (regular timetables for the transport service), a certain overlap between touristic and public passenger transport can be assumed for these vessels. Their number has been quite stable since the year 2000 (Source: Federal Office for Statistics of Switzerland).
• The second group of day trip vessels in Switzerland are those which do not follow a scheduled service, but are used for day trip tours, for entirely touristic purposes. According to the Federal Office for Statistics, there are currently 105 of these vessels active on Swiss lakes. These two groups of public and private transport vessels form the entire day trip vessel fleet on lakes in Switzerland (247 vessels in total). The operating area of the 142 vessels that follow a scheduled service (public transport) are shown in the following figure.

 

NUMBER OF VESSELS ON LAKES IN SWITZERLAND FOLLOWING A SCHEDULED SERVICE (2018)

Source : Office fédéral des transports et Office fédéral de la statistique de la Suisse

 

• Among the 142 vessels that follow a scheduled service, there are 16 steam-boats, of which eight are active on Lac Léman, five on the Vierwaldstättersee, and the remaining five operate on Zürichsee, Thunersee, Lac de Neuchâtel and Brienzersee. Three of the eight steam-boats active on Lac Léman are now equipped with dieselelectric propulsion systems driving paddle wheels.
• Regarding the number of passengers, the Federal Office of Statistics produces data for the number of passengers transported by the 142 vessels following scheduled services, but not for the vessels which do not follow a scheduled service. The Office states that the number of passengers transported by the first group of vessels is much higher than the number of passengers transported by the second group of vessels.
• The passenger figures for Switzerland can be compared to the number of passengers transported on lake vessels in Italy (also scheduled service vessels), presented in the next part of this report. The results show a very similar number of passengers in both countries, but for the year 2012, a drop can be observed in Italy, possibly due to the economic crisis.

 

NUMBER OF PASSENGERS TRANSPORTED BY VESSELS ON LAKES (SCHEDULED SERVICES) IN SWITZERLAND (IN MILLION PERSONS)

Source : Federal Office of Statistics of Switzerland

 

 

• According to the Italian Ministry of Transport, in 2016 there were 138 vessels on Italian lakes following a regular liner traffic, which is the equivalent of the scheduled service in Switzerland. Recent figures for vessels not operating on a regular liner service are not available, but the latest available figures point to a number of around 53 for this type of lake vessel (Figure for 2009, source: Italian Ministry of Transport).
• The three lakes Lago Maggiore, Lago di Como and Lago di Garda account together for 71% of all Italian lake vessels operating on a scheduled service. The number of vessels has remained rather constant in recent years.

 

NUMBER OF LAKE VESSELS FOLLOWING A SCHEDULED SERVICE IN ITALY BY REGION (2016)

Source: Italian Ministry of Transport (Conto Nazionale delle Infrastrutture et Trasporto)

 

• The total number of passengers within liner traffic (11.4 million passengers) is distributed according to the capacities on the lakes in a quite logical manner.

 

NUMBER OF PASSENGERS ON LAKE VESSELS FOLLOWING A SCHEDULED SERVICE IN ITALY PER REGION (IN MILLION PERSONS)

Source: Italian Ministry of Transport (Conto Nazionale delle Infrastrutture et Trasporto)

 

• As previously mentioned, the demand on lake vessels in Italy dropped quite significantly in 2012, but regained strength afterwards. This could be explained by the economic crisis in 2011 and 2012, which had a more severe impact on the Italian economy than on the Swiss economy.

 

NUMBER OF PASSENGERS TRANSPORTED BY VESSELS ON LAKES (SCHEDULED SERVICES) IN ITALY (IN MILLION PERSONS)

Source : Italian Ministry of Transport (Conto Nazionale delle Infrastrutture et Trasporto)

 

 

• The hotspots of day trip vessels on lakes in Germany are the regions in the south, with Bavarian lakes (Chiemsee, Starnberger See, Ammersee, Königsee, etc.) and the Bodensee, which is an international lake, shared by Germany, Switzerland and Austria. The lakes in Bavaria had 54 vessels in 2017 with a total capacity of almost 14,000 passenger seats. They represent 45% of the total capacity (passenger seats) in Germany. The average capacity of a lake vessel in Bavaria is of 259 seats.
• The vessels on the Bodensee and other lakes in the south-western state of Baden-Wurttemberg are even larger, with an average capacity of 343 passenger seats. Lake vessels in the north-eastern parts of Germany (Lake district in Brandenburg and Mecklenburg) are much smaller, with an average capacity of only 57 passenger seats.

 

NUMBER OF VESSELS ON LAKES IN GERMANY BY REGION

Source: CCNR analysis based on German vessel database

 

• In Bavaria, some companies have to guarantee regular ferry service to islands located in some lakes. The same goes for lakes, rivers and coastal areas in other German federal states (e.g. Hamburg, Mecklenburg, Berlin). Apart from these services, passenger navigation operations are not viewed as part of public transportation services.

 

 

SURVEY AMONG COMPANIES ACTIVE IN DAY TRIP NAVIGATION

 

Introduction

 

• A questionnaire was developed and sent to 201 day trip navigation companies (Questionnaire available on request). The completed questionnaire was returned by 55 companies (response rate = 27.4 %). The questionnaire contained several questions regarding economic trends in the day trip navigation sector, investment plans, greening activities, short-term and long-term influencing factors for the demand side, etc.
• Companies in Germany had a share of 46% among the 201 companies that were contacted, and a share of 54% of all companies that returned the completed questionnaire. Companies in the Netherlands and in France each had a share of 17.5% of all companies contacted, and both countries had also the same share within all completed questionnaires (14.5% each). Two more Rhine countries (Belgium and Switzerland) each made up 7.3% of all completed questionnaires. Although Rhine countries represented around 98% of all received (completed) questionnaires, the questionnaire had also been sent to companies in Danube countries as well as in countries in Central and eastern Europe. Non-Rhine countries taken together had a share of 12.4% of all companies that were contacted.
• The most important results of the survey are shown in the figures below. The idea is to make similar surveys also for future market observation reports, covering other market segments, for example the liquid cargo or the dry cargo sector.

 

Main results of the survey

 

• It appears that the two most important short- and medium-term factors for passenger demand are the company’s own advertising/marketing activities, followed closely by the weather. The number of visitors in the city or in the region is less important than these two main factors. This might be explained by the fact that in certain regions, passenger demand comes mainly from the population living in the region itself.

 

IMPORTANCE OF INFLUENCING FACTORS FOR PASSENGER DEMAND IN THE SHORT- AND MEDIUM-TERM – CONDENSED SURVEY RESULTS (QUESTION 2)*

Source: CCNR survey
* Figures in the chart show the number of companies that answered the question in the indicated way.

 

• Marketing activities by other organisations were specified in the questionnaire as activities performed by the city, the region, the state, or by tourist associations, professional or trade associations. It shall be seen in the next figure that these ‘external’ marketing activities become more important in the long run.

 

IMPORTANCE OF INFLUENCING FACTORS ON PASSENGER DEMAND IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM – CONDENSED SURVEY RESULTS (QUESTION 3)*

Source: CCNR survey
* Figures in the chart show the number of companies that answered the question in the indicated way.

 

• In the middle and long run, passenger demand for day trip vessels is also strongly influenced by the company’s own marketing activities. However, in contrast to the short run perspective, marketing activities by other organisations play a much greater role in the long run perspective and are in second place.
• New thematic tours and more event trips are factors that seem to bear the same influence. The number of foreign tourists in the city or region is considered to be important but stands behind the afore-mentioned factors.
• In another question (question 5), the companies were asked to indicate the importance of four influencing factors for their investment behaviour. These four influencing factors were taken from different fields: the economic field (demand growth; access to external finance or funding), the technical field (access to onshore electricity) and the regulatory/political field, which also contains many technical aspects.

 

IMPORTANCE OF INFLUENCING FACTORS FOR INVESTMENT BEHAVIOUR – CONDENSED SURVEY RESULTS (QUESTION 5)*

Source: CCNR survey
* Figures in the chart show the number of companies that answered the question in the indicated way.

 

• The graph shows an important tendency: the access to external finance or subsidies is a fundamental precondition for investing.
• This can be explained by the fact that many day trip vessel companies (and many inland navigation companies in general) are rather small companies, which need to rely on external financing or on funding for realising their investment plans. Behind the financial factor, demand growth and the regulatory and political environment are also quite important. On the other hand, access to onshore electricity is clearly the very last factor taken into consideration by a company before investing.
• Another question (question 6) contained three parts on greening:

 

a) ‘Are you already using one of the following alternative propulsion technologies [diesel-electric; all-electric (batteries); Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG); Gas-to-Liquid (GTL); hydrogen] aboard your vessels? If so, which ones?’

The most frequent alternative technology indicated by companies was diesel-electric propulsion (44%), followed by pure electric propulsion (34%), and Gas-to-Liquid (16%). LNG and hydrogen propulsion together had a share of 6%.

 

b) ‘Do you have any future plans to convert your fleet or (any additional) parts of it to alternative propulsion systems?’

The replies to this question showed a certain discrepancy between German companies on the one hand (where the plans for a conversion were often indicated as ‘very probable’ or also ‘definitely’), and French companies on the other hand, where the possible answer ‘highly unlikely’ received the large majority of votes. The results of Dutch, Belgian and Swiss companies showed that they lay somewhere between the French and the German types of answer.

 

c) ‘What are the most important constraints currently deterring your company from a large-scale introduction of alternative types of propulsion?’

Five answers (A1-A5) were possible. The companies mostly indicated the following answers: A2 = insufficiently profitable (share of 30% of all answers), A4 = regulatory environment still too uncertain (share of 26% of all answers) and A1 = start-up finance too expensive / shortage of debt capital (share of 25% of all answers).

• The still ongoing expansion in the construction sector, which started in 2014, benefited the IWW transport of sand, stone, gravel and building materials.

• This correlation can be seen by comparing construction activity to the volumes of sand, stone, gravel and building materials transported via IWW; this phenomenon is best visible in the Netherlands.

• The EUROCONSTRUCT outlook foresees a slowdown in growth for the European construction market in the period 2019-2021. Nevertheless, the building activity should continue to grow in the medium and long-term.

• Other goods segments also have a positive outlook, for example chemicals, due to the evolution of life sciences in modern economies, and metals.

 

 

TRANSPORT OF SAND, STONES, GRAVEL AND BUILDING MATERIALS

 

• The transport of sand, stones, gravel and building materials is quite important in inland waterway transport, especially in western Europe. The volumes and shares of this segment in important IWT countries are given below (There are indeed statistical problems for this segment. Within the NST 2007 goods classification, a distinction between sand, stones, gravel and building materials from ores is not possible anymore. (It was possible under the previous goods classification NST/R). Due to this change in the goods classification, a split between the two product segments is only possible on the basis of very detailed data, which are unfortunately not available for many European countries. The data for Rhine countries and for Romania were produced by analysing detailed data from national statistical offices (for Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands, Romania), and VNF (France). In this instance, the following NST 2007 Codes are taken into account: 035 (sands, stones, gravel, tone), 092 (cement, chalk, burnt plaster), 093 (other construction materials)):
  • 74.0 million t in the Netherlands in 2018 (20% of total IWT)
  • 50.0 million t in Belgium in 2017 (25% of total IWT)
  • 26.7 million t in Germany in 2018 (14% of total IWT)
  • 21.9 million t in France in 2018 (37% of total IWT)
  • 6.1 million t in Romania in 2018 (21% of total IWT)
• The construction sector, which is the underlying sector of activity for this goods segment, expanded its activity in large parts of western Europe in recent years, especially in Germany, the Netherlands and in Belgium. The reasons for this expansion are analysed by economic research institutes, such as the Ifo Institute for Economic Research which has a longstanding tradition of research in the construction sector.

 

PRODUCTION VALUE OF THE TOTAL CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN EUROPEAN IWW COUNTRIES (IN BILLION EURO)

Source: Eurostat [sbs_na_con_r2]

 

• The Ifo Institute for Economic Research is a Munich-based research institution and one of Germany’s largest economic think-tanks. According to its assessment, a cyclical upward movement started in 2014 in the European construction sector, caused by several economic and demographic factors (See: Dorffmeister, Ludwig (2019a), Europäische Bauwirtschaft bleibt bis 2021 auf Expansionskurs (European Construction sector stays on expansion path until 2021), in: ifo Schnelldienst 2/2019, p. 47-54; and: Dorffmeister, Ludwig (2018), Europäischer Bausektor: Aufschwung verliert bis 2020 spürbar an Kraft (European Construction sector: upward movement loses momentum until 2020), in: ifo Schnelldienst 13/2018, p. 61-68):
  • The recovery of European macroeconomic framework conditions after the financial crisis
  • Persistently low interest rates in Europe
  • High demand for residential building construction
  • Internal migration towards urban regions and immigration from abroad
  • Higher public investment in the construction of new transport infrastructure
• The overall level and evolution of the transport of sand, stones, gravel and building materials on inland waterways in Western Europe is shown in the following figure on a quarterly basis:

 

QUARTERLY IWW TRANSPORT VOLUME OF SAND, STONES, GRAVEL AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL (MILLION TONNES)

Source: CBS, Stat.Bel, Destatis, VNF

 

• These quarterly data show seasonal variations in this sector which follow a similar movement between the countries under analysis (see 2013-1, 2015-2, 2016-2, 2018-1, 2018-2, 2018-3) and a rising tendency in Belgium and the Netherlands.
• Using monthly data for Germany allows tracing the link between the construction activity and the IWW transport of sand, stones, gravel, etc. The correlation is quite intense, but the low water levels disturbed this correlation (in autumn 2015 and 2016, and in the second half of 2018). Large volumes of sand, stones and gravel were lost for German waterway transport due to these low water periods, at least temporarily.

 

MONTHLY PRODUCTION LEVEL IN THE GERMAN CONSTRUCTION SECTOR AND IWW TRANSPORT OF SAND, STONES, GRAVEL AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL IN GERMANY (INDEX 1/2011 = 100)

Source: CCNR based on Eurostat [sts_copr_m] and Destatis

 

• In order to answer the question regarding the impact of the upswing that started in 2014, it is necessary to compare the (seasonally adjusted) figures for the activity in the transport sector with seasonally adjusted data for IWW transport on a country level. The seasonal adjustment makes apparent the business cycle and trend components of the series which is crucial for detecting upswing or downswing patterns.

 

QUARTERLY PRODUCTION LEVEL IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR AND IWW TRANSPORT OF SAND, STONES, GRAVEL AND CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL (INDICE 2015 = 100)*

Source: CCNR based on data from Eurostat [sts_copr_m], CBS, VNF, Destatis, Statbel
* Seasonally adjusted data

France

Germany

Belgium

Netherlands

 

• The upswing in the construction sector from 2014 onwards is best visible in the Netherlands. In the three other countries, it came with a delay. There is a certain correlation between the activity in the construction sector and the transport of related goods, but this correlation is not perfect, due to quite different additional influencing factors which are at play.
• For Belgium, France and Germany, the recovery of construction activity that occurred in 2015 and at the beginning of 2016 seems to have produced an impulse for the IWW transport of sands, stones, gravel and building materials. For the Netherlands, this impulse came earlier.
• The Ifo Institute for Economic Research is also a member of a European network of economic research institutes (EUROCONSTRUCT), that conducts forecasts for the whole European construction sector twice a year. At its latest meeting in late November 2018, this consortium made an assessment on the economic outlook for the construction sector during the period 2019-2021. According to this outlook, the growth of the European construction market should slow down in the forecast period (2019-2021), as shown by falling growth rates in the following figure.

 

FORECAST ON YEARLY GROWTH RATE OF TOTAL CONSTRUCTION OUTPUT PER COUNTRY (IN %)

Source: EUROCONSTRUCT

 

• There are several reasons for easing growth rates, but capacity problems in the building industry seem to play one major role. A shortage of labour, and rising costs, as a result of the strong expansion of building activity in recent years, represent a bottleneck for further development at the same pace as previous years. Secondly, bottlenecks are also present when it comes to zones and areas for newbuilding which have become scarce (See: Dorffmeister, Ludwig (2019b), Zu den Kapazitätsengpässen in der Bauwirtschaft (capacity bottlenecks in the construction sector), in: ifo Schnelldienst, p.50-54).
• Nevertheless, the building activity will continue to grow, although at a slower pace than in recent years. For inland waterway transport of sand, stones, gravel and building materials, a forecast was established which is based on the expected growth rates of the building sector according to EUROCONSTRUCT.
• The following figure shows the evolution including the forecast values. The volumes in the Netherlands are expected to grow further until 2021 to a value of more than 80 million tonnes per year. Absolute growth is also foreseen for Belgium. For Germany, the results were corrected for the low water effects in 2018. The outlook for France and Germany points to a more stagnant evolution over the foreseeable horizon.

 

EVOLUTION OF YEARLY VOLUME OF SAND, STONES, GRAVEL AND BUILDING MATERIALS TRANSPORTED BY IWT AND FORECAST FOR 2019, 2020 AND 2021 (IN MILLION T)

Source: CCNR

 

TRENDS FOR IWT MARKETS

 

• Long-lasting push factors for the construction sector are, as mentioned in the previous part, demographic growth in urban areas and also immigration. The more short- and medium-term factors (macroeconomic climate, interest rates) can change in a cyclical way.
• For chemicals, the outlook is also positive, and the evolution of life science segments in modern economies can be a push factor for growth in the future. Regarding metals, the outlook is positive as well, although the growth potential is not as strong as for the construction sector and for chemicals.

 

GROSS REAL OUTPUT IN DIFFERENT ECONOMIC SECTORS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION *

Source: Oxford Economics
* in billion US-$, 2010 prices

 

• Coal demand in the energy sector (steam coal) is decreasing, but for coal used in the steel industry, (coke), the outlook is far better. The transport of mineral oil products has a quite positive underlaying trend, and besides, IWT can gain further market shares in this segment due to its high safety level. The production of fertilizers is also expected to increase until 2050, as it is the case for the agricultural production and for food production.

 

GROSS REAL OUTPUT IN DIFFERENT ECONOMIC SECTORS IN THE EUROPEAN UNION *

Source: Oxford Economics
* in billion US-$, 2010 prices

• In 2016, there were 5,753 IWW goods transport companies in Europe. Almost 90% of them were registered in Rhine countries. These countries accounted for 74% of the 22,087 employees active in IWW goods transport in 2017, and the Danube countries for 13%.

•There are 4,000 IWW passenger transport companies in Europe, and 18,645 employees. 44% of the European IWW passenger companies are registered in Rhine countries. Regarding employment, the share of Rhine countries is even higher: 63% of all employees in IWW passenger transport are employed in companies in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Belgium (data for Switzerland are missing).

•The age structure of persons active in goods and passenger transport taken together is currently dominated by persons aged between 25 and 55. They have a share of 58% in Germany and 61% in Belgium. The share of persons younger than 25 is 10% in Germany and 5% in Belgium.

 

GOODS TRANSPORT COMPANIES

 

NUMBER OF IWT COMPANIES IN GOODS TRANSPORT IN EUROPE*

Source: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] and Eidgenössische Steuerverwaltung (CH)
* Data for 2016

 

• In 2016 (The year 2016 was the most recent year for Eurostat statistics on companies) there were 5,753 IWW goods transport companies in Europe (EU plus Switzerland), of which 87.5% were registered in Rhine countries (the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, France, Switzerland).
• The evolution of the total number of European goods transport companies followed a slight downward orientation in recent years. The number of companies has also been falling slightly in the Netherlands since the year 2010.

 

NUMBER OF IWT COMPANIES IN GOODS TRANSPORT IN EUROPE

Source : Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2], Eidgenössische Steuerverwaltung (CH)

 

NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN IWT GOODS TRANSPORT IN EUROPE*

Source : Source: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2]
* Data for 2017

 

• The number of employees (persons working in the IWW sector) in IWW goods transport was 22,087 in 2017, and 74% of these employees were working for companies in Rhine countries. The Danube countries account for 13% of all employees.

 

NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN IWT GOODS TRANSPORT IN EUROPE

Source : Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2]

 

• If the number of employees in goods transport in 2017 are compared with the numbers in the previous five years (in 2012), a decrease can be observed for Europe as a whole, and also for large IWW countries such as the Netherlands, Romania, France and Bulgaria. Very few countries had more employees in IWW goods transport in 2017 than in 2012 (Germany, Poland, Italy, Switzerland and some smaller ones).

 

DIFFERENCE IN THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN IWW GOODS TRANSPORT IN 2017 COMPARED TO 2012

Source : Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2]

 

• When analysing the decrease in employees in the Netherlands, it is necessary to take into account that the majority of Dutch IWW companies are very small, with only one or two employees. The decline in the number of active persons mirrors the decrease in the Dutch companies in the same time period.
• The reasons for this evolution can be due to problems of companies’ successions in small single vessel owner companies, but also due to specific economic problems which small companies are often facing (difficult access to external financing, high financial burden of necessary investments).

 

NUMBER OF IWT COMPANIES PER SIZE CLASS (NUMBER OF PERSONS IN THE COMPANY) IN THE NETHERLANDS IN Q1 2019

Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistik (Netherlands). Data refer to the situation in Q1 2019

 

Dry cargo transport

Liquid cargo transport

Push & Tug boat navigation

 

• The share of the companies with only one person active is 41% in the Dutch dry cargo segment, 51% in tanker shipping, and 58% in the push & tug segment. The situation in the Netherlands is not exceptional when compared to many other countries. According to data for France (from INSEE), only 2% of all French IWW freight transport companies have 10 employees or more. For French passenger transport companies, this share is 10%.

 

Quarterly turnover development in goods transport

• Despite an overall drop in goods transport in the Netherlands in 2018, turnover rose. The reason was the increase in freight rates, due to the low water levels (see chapter 5). Since 2012, the turnover in rail and road freight transport evolved more evenly than in maritime and inland waterway transport.

 

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NETHERLANDS IN GOODS TRANSPORT, PER MODE (INDEX 2015=100)

Source : Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS)

 

• The turnover of the German IWW goods transport companies (see following figure) also increased due to rising transport prices in 2018. However, its level was still well below the turnover level of other transport modes.
• Both in Germany and in the Netherlands, IWT turnover dropped strongly after Q4 2015, and remained on a lower level for some time afterwards. In Q4 2015, there was a low water period on the Rhine, resulting in a strong reduction of cargo traffic. Although transport prices increased over a short period of time (boosting turnover temporarily in Q4 2015), the years 2016 and 2017 saw a much lower average turnover level in both countries.

 

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN GERMANY IN GOODS TRANSPORT, PER MODE (INDEX 2015=100)

Source : Destatis

 

 

PASSENGER TRANSPORT NUMBER OF COMPANIES, EMPLOYMENT AND TURNOVER EVOLUTION

 

• The 4,000 IWW passenger companies in Europe are active in different segments: river cruises, day trip navigation on rivers, canals and lakes. The ferry transport of passengers is also part of the sector. The first position of Italy is due to the many lakes in the country (see chapter on day trip vessels), and due to canal boats in Venice. The Netherlands and Germany have many day trip ferry vessels.

 

NUMBER OF IWW COMPANIES IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE*

Source: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] and Eidgenössische Steuerverwaltung (CH)
* Data for 2016

 

• The evolution of the total number of European passenger transport companies has followed an upward trend since the year 2013.

 

NUMBER OF IWW COMPANIES IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE

Source: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2], Eidgenössische Steuerverwaltung (CH), CBS (NL)

 

• The number of employees in IWW passenger transport amounted to around 18,645 in 2016 and has increased in recent years. Three Rhine countries are in the top three positions (Germany, the Netherlands, France). These three countries are very active in river cruises, and in day trip navigation on rivers and canals.

 

NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE*

Source : Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2]
* Data for 2016, no data for Switzerland

 

• One part of the positive evolution in the number of companies and employees in passenger navigation since the year 2013 is the boom in river cruises that became more and more intense that year, mainly due to the arrival of large numbers of USAmerican tourists from overseas. In addition, passenger navigation is also increasing its economic indicators in countries where not many cruise vessels are registered.

 

NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE

Source : Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2]

 

• Almost all European countries have been able to increase their number of employees in passenger navigation since the year 2012. The strongest increase took place in countries where there were already many persons active in this market segment.

 

DIFFERENCE IN THE NUMBER OF EMPLOYEES IN IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN 2016 COMPARED TO 2012 *

Source : Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2]
* No data for Switzerland

 

Quarterly turnover development in passenger transport

• Quarterly turnover data for IWW passenger transport are available for Germany and France and are compared with data for other transport modes. A very high seasonality of inland waterway passenger transport can be observed, which is a clear feature of the sector, despite recent activities to extend the season to the winter period.

 

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN GERMANY PER MODE OF TRANSPORT (INDEX 2015 = 100)*

Source : Destatis
* Includes a linear trend for IWW passenger transport.

 

• The overall trend of the turnover in IWW passenger transport is positive. For France, it has been noted that even the air passenger traffic has a more stagnant evolution than passenger transport on inland waterways.

 

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN FRANCE PER MODE OF TRANSPORT (INDEX 2015 = 100)*

Source : INSEE
* Includes a linear trend for IWW passenger transport.

 

 

GROSS OPERATING SURPLUS / TURNOVER RATIO

 

Definition and sources

• The gross operating surplus (GOS) of a company or a sector is an indicator for the profitability. When calculating the GOS, only part of the total cost is deducted from the gross production value. The GOS thus corresponds to the gross production value minus the cost of intermediate products (goods and services) and less compensation of employees (personnel costs) (See: Eurostat, Statistics explained (https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Gross_operating_ surplus_(GOS)_-_NA/de)). Data for this ratio (in percentage terms) are available from the Eurostat database on structural business statistics [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] (The Eurostat database does not contain data for this variable for the Netherlands. However, the CBS has data for the total net operating surplus and the total amortization in the Dutch inland navigation industry. Therefore, it was possible to calculate the gross operating surplus for goods transport in the Netherlands by adding amortization to the net operating surplus. As the sum of these two variables gives the gross operating surplus, it can be compared correctly with the data for the other countries taken from the Eurostat database).

 

Data for European countries

• From the following figure that shows the GOS / turnover ratio in goods transport, it is clear that this profitability indicator has similar values in the Belgian and Dutch sectors, which are higher than in German and French industries. This is explained by better natural conditions (infrastructure, water depths) for inland navigation in the ARA region compared to large parts of France and Germany. In addition, an increasing trend for the Rhine countries (including France and Germany), as well as quite mixed results for the other countries under study, can be observed.
• Also, for the Danube countries, it is observed that the lower Danube countries (Romania, Bulgaria) show a more favourable value for the GOS / turnover ratio than the Middle Danube countries (Hungary, Slovakia). It can also be explained by the better natural conditions. Hungary, a country at the Middle Danube, even had a negative value until the year 2015.

 

GROSS OPERATING SURPLUS / TURNOVER RATIO IN THE IWW GOODS TRANSPORT SECTOR

Source: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] and calculation CCNR based on CBS data

 

• In passenger transport, the GOS / turnover ratio is higher than in goods transport for Germany, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Hungary, but lower for France, and at about the same level for Italy.

 

GROSS OPERATING SURPLUS / TURNOVER RATIO IN THE IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT SECTOR

Source : Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2]

 

• Concerning France, its low profitability value is explained by relatively high personnel costs (see next figure).

 

AVERAGE ANNUAL PERSONNEL COSTS PER PERSON ACTIVE IN IWW TRANSPORT (IN 1,000 € / PERSON, 2016) *

Source : Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] and CBS (NL)
* Data are rounded-up for visibility purposes. The value for the Netherlands concerns goods transport and passenger transport taken together, but goods transport has a share of 92%.

 

 

AGE STRUCTURE OF PERSONS ACTIVE IN INLAND NAVIGATION AND NUMBER OF APPRENTICES

 

• The German Federal Employment Agency (Bundesagentur für Arbeit) disposes of a central database of nearly all persons working under a social security regime in Germany. Its databases can be analysed according to age classes of employees and the professions that these employees have learnt.
• The following figure shows the percentage shares of four age classes for German persons with a profession in navigating an inland vessel (both goods and passenger transport).

 

AGE STRUCTURE OF PERSONS WITH THE PROFESSION ‘SKIPPER IN INLAND NAVIGATION’ IN GERMANY

Source: calculation CCNR based on Bundesagentur für Arbeit

 

• In Belgium, the National Social Security Office ( ONSS in French, RSZ in Dutch) is the central body responsible for the collection, management and distribution of social security contributions for employees. The social contributions for self-employed workers in Belgium are collected and managed by the National Social Insurance Institute for the Self-Employed (INASTI in French, NISSE in Dutch).
• In order for the Belgian data to be comparable with the German data, the data for the dependent and independent inland navigation Belgian workers have been added together, and the age structure was calculated for the total number of workers (as well as for the independent and the dependent separately) (The result shows quite strong differences between the independent and dependent workers. The share of people active who are over 65 years is 11% for the independent Belgian persons, compared to only 1% for those who are dependent. The share of persons younger than 25 years is 2% for the independent employees, but 8% for the dependent employees (all values for 2017/2018)).

 

AGE STRUCTURE OF PERSONS WITH THE PROFESSION ‘SKIPPER IN INLAND NAVIGATION’ IN BELGIUM

Source: calculation CCNR based on ONSS/RSZ and INASTI/NISSE

 

• When comparing the results for Belgium and Germany, it is noticed that the share of persons younger than 25 years was 10% in Germany in 2018, compared to 5% in Belgium (2017). The share of persons who are older than 65 years is higher in Belgium than in Germany. [Even if only the Belgian workers who are dependent employees are taken into account, the share of the youngest age group is slightly lower (8% in 2018) than in Germany (10% in 2018)].
• The differences between the two countries should also be seen from the viewpoint of market structure. Indeed, the type of independent vessel owner is more common in Belgium than in Germany. Therefore, the share of independent entrepreneurs is certainly higher in the Belgian sector than in the German sector. This explains to a certain extent the slight differences in the age structure in Belgium.
• Finally, it can be observed that the rising trend in Germany for the number of companies and employees in passenger transport had an influence on the choice of apprentices regarding their field of job training. The figures in passenger transport increased in 2016, 2017 and 2018, while those for goods transport decreased.

 

NUMBER OF APPRENTICES IN THE GERMAN INLAND NAVIGATION SECTOR

Source: CCNR analysis based on data provided by Bundesagentur für Arbeit

 

• European inland navigation in 2018 was strongly impacted by the extreme and extended low water period in the second half of the year 2018.

• The influence of the extreme drought on transport activity varied according to the regions. The impact of low water was particularly pronounced on the Rhine, on its tributaries, on the Upper and Middle Danube, and on the Upper and Middle Elbe.

• The interruption in the logistics chains caused considerable economic losses. For Germany this materialised in a decrease of its industrial production by 5 billion Euros.

• There have been low water periods over the last 200 years and this will continue to occur in the future. How to strengthen the resilience of inland navigation transport in view of this phenomenon will certainly be an important question to be addressed.

 

 

Impact on freight traffic

 

• The following figure shows the monthly goods transport on the Rhine between January 2000 and December 2018 together with a 6-month moving average. Low-water periods are shaded in blue and are recognisable as V-shaped reductions of cargo traffic. The major part of the financial crisis (in 2008, 2009 and 2010) is shaded in yellow.

 

MONTHLY GOODS TRANSPORT ON THE TRADITIONAL RHINE (IN MILLION TONNES, 01/2000 – 12/2018), FINANCIAL CRISIS AND LOW-WATER PERIODS

Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis

 

 

• The low water period in the second half of 2018 had a stronger effect on goods transport than the previous years. For October and November 2018, the impact of the low-water period on goods transport was even stronger than the impact of the financial crisis. Although the major part of the decrease in the second half of 2018 is due to low water levels, there was also a negative influence from the economic contraction that set in in the second half of the year.

 

Impact on industrial production

 

• For the second half of 2018, the reduction of cargo traffic had consequences for the entire German economy. Logistical chains, notably for the delivery of raw materials (iron ore, coal) and for the delivery of final products of the chemical and petrochemical industry, were heavily disturbed.
• According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (See: Ademmer, M.; Jannsen, N.; Kooths, S.; Mösle, S. (2019). Niedrigwasser bremst Produktion (Low water slows production level), in: Wirtschaftsdienst 99 (1), 79-80), the disturbances in logistical chains curbed the growth rate of industrial production in Germany in Q3 2018 and in Q4 2018 significantly. For Q3 2018, the Kiel Institute estimates a decrease of the German industrial production by 1.9 billion Euro due to low-water levels on the Rhine.
• In Q4 2018, the industrial production was impacted by low water periods also with a time lag. This “lag effect” can be explained by the fact that raw materials, such as coal, iron ore, but also petrochemical commodities, are input factors in the entire production process of an economy. The loss of industrial production due to this lag effect amounted to 1 billion Euro in Q4 2018, while the loss due to the low water levels in the fourth quarter of 2018 itself amounted to another 1.9 billion Euro (= 2.9 billion Euro in total for Q4 2018).

 

IMPACT OF THE LOW WATER PERIOD ON THE RHINE IN 2018 ON THE GERMAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (INDEX 2015 = 100)

Source : Kiel Institute for the World Economy

 

Impact on freight rates

 

Rhine basin

• In the Rhine basin, freight rates for the transport of different dry cargo segments increased in October and November 2018 to levels that were around 2.5 times higher than normal. The freight rates for coal, iron ore and containers increased more strongly during the low-water period than for sand, stones, gravel and building materials, as well as Agribulk. The following figure shows this freight rate evolution as an index (2015=100), and the underlying transport relations in the Rhine basin (the Netherlands, Belgium, traditional Rhine).

 

PANTEIA FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR DRY CARGO, METALS AND CONTAINER TRANSPORT (INDEX 2015 = 100)

Source: Panteia

 

• Spot market prices for the transport of liquid cargo (gasoil) from the ARA region to destinations along the Rhine in France, Germany and Switzerland are analysed via regular surveys amongst tanker barge operators by the Dutch company PJK International. The following figure shows the index evolution for these transport prices, together with the loading degree of vessels at Maxau/Rhine.
• It was noted that freight rates in October and November 2018 were around 4.5 times higher than normal. This price increase was stronger than the increase in the Panteia Index. It can be explained by the fact that the Panteia index is related to different sailing areas (intra-ARA-trade, ARA-Rhine), while PJK Index covers only ARA-Rhine trade where the low-water phenomenon was much stronger than for intra-ARA-trade.

 

PJK FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR GASOIL FROM THE ARA REGION TO DESTINATIONS ALONG THE RHINE (INDEX 2015 = 100)*

Source: Calculation CCNR based on PJK International
* Gasoil freight rates including pilotage, harbour and canal dues

 

• For the liquid cargo transport within the extended ARA region (between Antwerp, Rotterdam, Amsterdam, Ghent, Flushing (Vlissingen), Terneuzen and other ports in the region), a dataset provided by the tanker barge corporation CITBO was analysed. The corporation CITBO was created in 2013 and aims to strengthen the market position of tanker barge operators. The members of CITBO transport all kinds of liquid cargo, and these volumes amounted to around 3 million tonnes in 2018. Within total cargo transport by members, Gasoil and components have a share of 48%, Gasoline and components 33%, Biodiesel 11%, Chemicals 7%, heavy and other products 5%. Before showing the freight rate evolution, the regional scope of operation of the corporation shall be described shortly (These results are based on statistical calculations that were performed by the CCNR on data provided by CITBO (data covering the period from August 2017 until February 2019)).
• Gasoline & components: Calculations showed that 92% of all gasoline & components volumes were loaded in Antwerp, Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Flushing. 63% were unloaded in the port of Amsterdam (the rest in Antwerp and Rotterdam). This illustrates the important role of Amsterdam as the world’s largest gasoline port, where blending activities are carried out by trading companies and traders of major oil companies.
• Gasoil & components: 94% of these volumes were loaded either in Antwerp, Rotterdam, Flushing or Amsterdam, but the ports of unloading were regionally more diversified. They were sometimes quite far away from the ARA region (but mostly still in Belgium and the Netherlands, sometimes also in Germany).
• Biodiesel : The ports of loading were regionally diversified for this segment. But the point of unloading was mainly Antwerp and Rotterdam (each had a share of 35% of all cargo unloaded). Ghent had a relatively high share as well, with more than 12%.
• A freight rate index was calculated, per product segment (The graph below contains the freight rate index for the types of liquid cargo, for which a sufficiently high number of data were available). The raw data were freight rates in Euro per tonne, which were realised by CITBO member companies for liquid cargo transports between August 2017 and February 2019 (The data collection of CITBO started in July 2017).

 

CITBO FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORTS IN THE FARAG REGION (FLUSHING-ANTWERP-ROTTERDAM-AMSTERDAM-GHENT)*

Source: calculation CCNR based on data provided by CITBO
* And other ports in the region

 

• During the period when there were low water levels on the Rhine, a general rise of freight rates was observed also in the FARAG region (see figure above). This can be explained by a kind of economic ‘absorption effect’: strongly rising freight rates on the Rhine signified an incentive for operators from the Netherlands and Belgium (especially those with small vessels, which were able to sail under low water conditions) who shifted their region of operation (temporarily and/or partly) to the Rhine.
• In consequence, a supply side contraction in the FARAG area set in where, therefore, the freight rate level also increased. This can be clearly seen from the statistical analysis and from the figure shown above.
• In absolute values, freight rates for Biodiesel transports were the highest during the whole period under study (August 2017 until February 2019), followed by freight rates for chemicals, gasoil and components, and gasoline and components. During the low water period, freight rates for all kinds of liquid cargo went up, but for gasoline and components and gasoil and components the increase was relatively stronger than for chemicals and biodiesel.
• Regarding the transported volumes by CITBO member companies, the data show no reduction in the second half of 2018 but a strong increase, for all product segments. The regional focus of operation continued to be in the FARAG area. This increase of liquid cargo transport by CITBO member companies in the FARAG region is reflected by figures from the Dutch national statistical office (CBS) for the same period of time (According to the CBS, while international cargo transport in the Netherlands decreased in Q3 and Q4 2018, national cargo transport went up. Liquid cargo grew by 2 % in Q3 2018 compared to Q3 2017, and by 19 % in Q4 2018 compared to Q4 2017).

 

TRANSPORT VOLUME EVOLUTION (INDEX) PER PRODUCT SEGMENT OF THE CITBO MEMBER COMPANIES PER QUARTER (Q3 2017 = 100)

Source: CCNR calculation based on data provided by CITBO

 

• The overall results (both for freight rates and for transport volumes) of the CITBO analysis show that the presence of low water periods in certain regions (Rhine, Danube) tends to increase also the freight rate level in other regions where water levels remained normal, in a kind of ‘communicating pipes effect’. This effect is explained by economic incentives for barge operators to shift their regional area of operation to regions with a high freight rates level. This reduces the supply side capacity in the region with normal water levels and therefore the price or freight rate level also increases.

 

Danube basin

• In the Danube basin, low waters had quite a severe impact on vessels’ loading degrees. However, the strength of this impact differed according to different parts of the Danube. The German stretch of the Danube, which is free-flowing in large parts, witnessed a stronger limitation than the Austrian and Hungarian stretches of the Danube. For the lower Danube, hydraulicity data were not made available, but the transport demand figures point to a very limited impact of water levels on transport demand in 2018.
• According to the Danube Commission, freight rates in the Danube region were pushed upwards by rising bunker costs and by the low water levels in parts of the Danube. Freight rates for upstream transport on the Danube (where iron ore and coal transport are transported) were higher than freight rates for downstream traffic.

 

Low water levels from a historical perspective

• Looking back over the last 200 years helps to put the low water period of 2018 into perspective. At Kaub, Middle Rhine, data on the number of days with a discharge of less than 783 m3 per second (which corresponds to the equivalent low water level of 78 cm at Kaub) are available for the last 200 years. They show that years of severe low water periods also occurred in the past. At the beginning of the 20th century, and again in the 1940s, a large number of days over many years saw low water levels on the Rhine. The impact on transport volume was certainly not as strong at that time, due to smaller vessels with a lower draught.
• These historical patterns show that, even without climate change, strong fluctuations of navigation conditions occurred and will occur in the future. They therefore point to the necessity of partly rethinking the logistical concepts (including the size and the design of the vessels), which are in place today, and which tend to make inland navigation very vulnerable towards climate change.

 

NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR WITH A DISCHARGE Q < 783 M3/S AT KAUB, MIDDLE RHINE INCLUDING 30-YEARS-MOVING AVERAGE*

Source: Federal German Office of Hydrology.
* Corresponds to a water level of 78 cm (equivalent water level).

• Cross-border traffic makes up for 53% of all IWT transport in the EU. This type of transport also represents 57% of all IWT traffic in the Rhine basin and 35% in the Danube basin.

• Cross border traffic is particularly important between the Netherlands and Germany, especially due to large volumes of commodities being transported from the Dutch seaports to Germany.

• The EU transport performance on European inland waterways is mainly driven by the performance in Rhine countries, which accounts for 84% of the total IWT performance in the EU plus Switzerland.

• The volume of goods transported on the traditional Rhine decreased by 11% compared to 2017, resulting mainly from the low water period and the cooling down of the business cycle in the second half of 2018.

• Goods transport on the Lower Danube, which accounts for 75% of total transport performance on the Danube, showed resilience to low waters and increased volumes in 2018, while the Upper and Middle Danube were negatively impacted.

• Container transport continued its upward movement in Belgium, France and the Netherlands, while it fell by 10% on the Rhine, as a result of low water levels in autumn 2018.

 

 

Inland navigation goods transport in Europe

SHARE OF THE COUNTRIES’ TONNES-KM (TKM) IN TOTAL TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE (SHARE IN %)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo], OCDE (Switzerland, Serbia)

 

 

IWT TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN 2015, 2016, 2017 AND 2018 IN MAIN EU IWT COUNTRIES (TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MILLION TKM)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo]

 

QUARTERLY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE EVOLUTION IN MAIN IWT EU COUNTRIES (TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MILLION TKM)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave]

 

 

• Rhine countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Switzerland) account for 84% of total inland waterway transport performance in the EU plus Switzerland. Danube countries have a share of 16%, and all other countries taken together have a share of almost zero percent.

 

YEARLY INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EU COUNTRIES (IN BILLION TKM IN 2018)*

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo]
* Data for UK and Italy not yet available for 2018

 

• According to Eurostat figures[iww_go_atygo], ores, sands, stones and building materials account for 26% of total IWW transport performance in the EU plus Switzerland. The energy sector (petroleum products and coal) represents 25%. Agricultural products and food products account for 15%. Goods in containers represent 11%, as is the case for chemicals. The share of metals is 6%, and wastes and secondary raw materials (including scrap steel) account for 3%.

 

Evolution of total IWT and of cross-border traffic in the EU

 

YEARLY INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN THE EU (IN BILLION TKM)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo]

 

• Cross-border transport performance had a share of 52% of all IWW transport performance in the EU in 2018, and this figure has been quite stable since 2007. National traffic represented 27%, and transit traffic 21%.
• In Rhine countries, the different types of transport vary between the countries. In Germany 40% of all transport performance is made up of imports (cross-border transport – import), due to the large volumes of commodities, notably for the steel industry (iron ore, coal), that are imported from seaports in the Netherlands. The Netherlands have a high share of exports (cross-border transport – exports), which mirrors the high imports of Germany.

 

INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN RHINE COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO TYPE OF TRANSPORT IN 2018 (IN MILLION TKM)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo]

 

• In many Danube countries (Croatia, Hungary, Slovakia), transit transport has a very high share in total transport performance, reflecting the long-distance transport between the ports at the Black See and the Danube hinterland. Austria is not so much a transit country, but rather a country of destination of large volumes of Danube transport. In Austria, 49% of transport performance is import traffic, the main reason being the steel industry of the country with its large needs of raw materials such as iron ore and coal, which are transshipped at the Black Sea ports and transported upstream on the Danube.

 

INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT VOLUME IN DANUBE COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO TYPE OF TRANSPORT IN 2018 (IN MILLION TKM)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo]

 

Inland navigation goods transport in main European river basins

 

 

 

• In the following sub-chapter, goods transport on inland waterways with a yearly transport volume of at least 1 million tonnes are presented. The majority of the data was provided by national waterway administrations (for Germany, Belgium and France) For Belgium: De Vlaamse Waterweg for Flanders, and Direction générale opérationnelle de la Mobilité et des Voies hydrauliques for Wallonia; for France: Voies Navigables de France ; for Germany: Generaldirektion Wasserstraßen und Schifffahrt, for the Netherlands: Rijkswaterstaat / Panteia. In these cases, transport data are recorded by the waterway administrations at locks. The locks which served as a basis for the statistical findings were selected in order to provide the most representative picture for IWW goods transport in each basin.
• Data on Danube and Rhine navigation are presented separately. For the Danube, the data come from the market observation of the Danube Commission, which collects them from waterway administrations of Danube countries. The source for the Rhine data is the German Statistical Office (Destatis). For the Netherlands, raw data from Rijkswaterstaat were received via Panteia.
• Apart from the total goods transport volumes per waterway, volumes for major goods segments are also presented. Only the major goods segments per waterway are hereby taken into account in order to focus on the main characteristics of goods transport on each waterway.

 

IWW transport per type of goods in the Rhine basin and in Western Europe

 

TRADITIONAL RHINE (IN MILLION TONNES)

Source: Destatis, CCNR

 

• Traditional Rhine transport (from Basel to the German-Dutch border) amounted to 165 million tonnes in 2018, 11% less than in 2017. The main reason was the low water levels, while the cooling down of the business cycle in the second half of 2018 played another, although much smaller role. Even for goods segments with an increasing long run trend, such as containers and chemicals, the hydrological conditions in the second half of 2018 were far too difficult, with the result that all goods segments witnessed a decrease compared to 2017.

 

 

• The dry cargo segment with the lowest rate of decrease was sand, stones and building materials (-5%). Liquid cargo registered falling volumes as well (chemicals: -13%, mineral oil products: -14%). Container transport decreased by 13% (net weight in containers), compared to -10% for the TEU.
• Container transport on the middle and upper Rhine (those two Rhine stretches account for 49% of all transport performance of container transport on the traditional Rhine), was severely limited in late autumn 2018. Seen from this perspective, the drop of 10% for the year 2018 can even be regarded as a relatively limited impact.

 

GOODS TRANSPORTED ON THE TRADITIONAL RHINE BY TYPE OF GOODS (IN MILLION TONNES)*

Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis
* for containers: net-weight

 

Inland waterways in the Netherlands

 

 

• For the country with the highest inland waterway goods transport in Europe, a distinction was made between waterways with locks and those without locks. The Amsterdam Rijnkanaal appears within both waterway categories, as one part of it has locks and another part has no locks. This canal is an essential linkage of the seaport of Amsterdam with the Rhine and its hinterland.
• The following figure includes waterways without locks. The Waal is an estuary branch of the Rhine in the Netherlands (part of the southern branch) while the Lek is part of the northern branch. The Hollands Diep is a broad estuary branch of the Rhine-Maas delta near the North Sea with a closure dam at the seaside.
• It is the continuation of the Nieuwe Merwede, itself a continuation of the Waal. The Oude Maas is another distributary of the Rhine. The Ijssel is the only free flowing branch of the Rhine flowing into the Ijsselmeer.

 

THE NETHERLANDS – TRANSPORT VOLUME ON WATERWAYS WITHOUT LOCKS (MILLION TONNES)

Source: Rijkswaterstaat and analysis Panteia

 

• Within the waterways that are equipped with locks, the Schelde-Rijn-Verbinding is an important linkage between Antwerp and the Rhine and Rotterdam. The Gent-Terneuzen-Verbinding is linking the port of Ghent with the Schelde river (with its estuary part near the North Sea).

 

THE NETHERLANDS – TRANSPORT VOLUME ON WATERWAYS WITH LOCKS (MILLION T)

Source: Rijkswaterstaat and analysis Panteia

 

• The following figures contain detailed goods transport statistics for four selected Dutch waterways. In this case, only the four major goods segments are depicted in order to concentrate on the main features of a waterway.
• The river Waal has a high share of commodities related to the steel industry. This is due to the fact that it represents one part of the southern Rhine estuary branch, on which iron ores and coal are delivered from Rotterdam to the Ruhr area in Germany.
• On the Amsterdam Rijnkanaal, sands and mineral oil products play an important role. It may be noted here that Amsterdam is the world’s largest gasoline port, and that the traffic of gasoline and components is very high in the region. (See also the analysis of freight rates and transport volumes for the tanker barge corporation CITBO in chapter 3).

 

INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT ON SELECTED DUTCH WATERWAYS PER GOODS SEGMENT (MILLION T)*

Source: Rijkswaterstaat and analysis Panteia
* Mop = Mineral oil products

 

Waal

Amsterdam Rijnkanaal

Hollands Diep

Maas

 

Inland waterways in Germany

 

 

• The German inland waterways were subdivided into four main geographical regions: West, North, South and East. Even without the Rhine, the West has the highest number of inland waterways with a significant transport volume of more than 1 million tonnes per year.
• A network of four major canals (west German canals) serve as transport routes for distributing final products from refineries, chemicals, and for delivering raw materials to coal fired power plants. One of these canals is the Rhine-Herne-Canal, on which 5 million tonnes of mineral oil products are transported each year. More than 2 million are found on the Dortmund-Ems-Canal. On both canals, this segment registered an increase in recent years. On the Wesel-Datteln-Canal, around 3 million tonnes of mineral oil products are transported each year, and more than 1 million tonnes on the Datteln-Hamm Canal. The Moselle and the Saar are two Rhine affluents in the West where iron ore and coal have the highest share in goods transport, due to the steel industry in the Saar region.
• The northern waterways (Elbe, Elbe-Seiten-Canal, Mittelland Canal, Weser) come in second place in Germany in terms of transported volumes. They are located in the hinterland of the largest German seaport (Hamburg), with mineral oil products being the main cargo segment on the Elbe and the Elbe-Seiten-Canal, and agricultural products on the Mittelland Canal.
• Four waterways are found in the southern part of Germany: the two Rhine affluents Main and Neckar, the Main-Danube Canal and the Danube. The largest goods segment on the Main and Neckar are sand, stones and building materials, which are transported mainly towards the Rhine. On the Main-Danube Canal and the Danube, goods transport is dominated by Agribulk, animal fodder and food products.
• On inland waterways in eastern Germany, sand, stones and building materials play an important role (Lower Havel near Berlin, Spree-Oder-Wasserstraße), and even follow an increasing trend.

 

GERMANY – WATERWAYS IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY (MILLION T)

Source: Generaldirektion Wasserstraßen und Schifffahrt

 

GERMANY – WATERWAYS IN THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY (MILLION T)

Source: Generaldirektion Wasserstraßen und Schifffahrt
* VK = Verbindungskanal (linkage canal), WS = Wasserstraße (waterway)

 

IWT in Germany per waterway and goods segment

 

• In order to give an overview of the main product categories per waterway, only the four largest segments are shown in the following figures.

 

GERMANY – WEST (IN MIO. T)

Source: Generaldirektion Wasserstraßen und Schifffahrt
* MoP: mineral oil products

 

Wesel-Datteln-Kanal

Rhein-Herne-Kanal

Datteln-Hamm-Kanal

Dortmund-Ems-Kanal

Mosel

Saar

• In 2018, economic activity reduced both in the EU and on a global scale, with growth slowing down significantly.

• This decline is supposedly due to a slower global trade growth, high uncertainty regarding trade policies, the upcoming Brexit and an overall weak industrial production in the Euro area.

• With regard to the labour market, there has been an employment increase of 1.6%. Labour costs increased as well but prices remained at the same level.

• All sectors were affected by the declining global trade, except for the booming construction sector – an important segment for inland shipping – which remained resilient.

 

 

General economic conditions and outlook in Europe

 

• In 2018 the economic activity diminished both in the EU and on a global scale after a period of sustained potential growth in many major economies. Following the four quarters of 0.7% (q-o-q) GDP growth in 2017 in the Euro area, the growth slowed down significantly, with a GDP growth of only 0.4% in the first two quarters and further losses in the last two quarters with a GDP growth of only 0.2%. For the year 2018 in general, the GDP grown by 2.1% in the EU-27 and by 1.9% in the Euro area. The main drivers for economic growth in 2018 were domestic consumption and investments. The only European country that defied the economic slowdown in 2018 was Hungary, reaching a GDP growth rate of almost 5% (European Commission, Spring European economic forecast, Spring 2019).
• The main reasons for the decline are supposedly a slower global trade growth, high uncertainty regarding trade policies, the upcoming Brexit and an overall weak industrial production in the Euro area. Services on the other hand seemed to be more resilient to the economic slowdown. The trade tensions between China and the US were the main cause of high uncertainty, leading to high volatility and also to corrections of global financial market prices. These developments are being counteracted by new trade agreements, such as between the EU and Japan, or the CPTPP (Comprehensive and Progressive agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership) which should support global trade (European Commission, Spring European economic forecast, Spring 2019).
• With regard to the labour market, there has been an employment increase of 1.6%. The most notable increase was in the construction sector, while employment growth in manufacturing has come to a standstill. However, the robust labour market was the driver for domestic consumption. In 2018, labour costs grew by 2.4%, but the labour cost pressures were not reflected in higher prices. The pass-through from wages to prices was not as high since companies squeezed their profit margins. This can be mainly explained by two factors: in times of low inflation, price diversion is narrower due to the fact that companies that raise prices attract the attention of the consumer, thereby risking the loss of market shares. The other factor is that costs are often passed on to prices when the demand is high, but with the recent negative demand shock, companies were reluctant to do so (European Central Bank, Mario Draghi speech, March 2019).
• Nevertheless, the worsening corporate earnings reports and trade tensions between the US and China, led to significant corrections of global stock market prices in the second half of 2018. Industrial production was falling further across countries and sectors except for the construction sector (for the construction sector, see also the outlook in chapter 9). In the first months of 2019, stock market prices recovered.
• ECB’s monetary policy has remained highly accommodative. While the ECB decided to end its net asset purchases in December 2018, ECB interest rates will remain at the current level at least through the summer of 2019, due to monetary policy stimulus, such as forward guidance on ECB policy rate and the reinvestments of the sizeable stock of acquired assets. During 2018 the Euro weakened by 1% in nominal effective terms against the Japanese yen and the pound sterling but remained strong against the US dollar.
• Regarding global trade, Euro area export volumes weakened throughout 2018, resulting in a growth rate of only 0.1% in 2018-Q3. Services exports on the other hand remain strong. Imports to the Euro area also slowed, but more gently than exports (European Commission, European economic forecast, February 2019).

 

GDP GROWTH RATES IN THE EU-28, IN THE EURO AREA AND PER COUNTRY(IN %),INCLUDING FORECAST FOR 2019 AND 2020

Sources : Eurostat [tec00115] and European Commission (European Economic forecast, February and Spring 2019) for the years 2019 and 2020

 

• Low waters affected vessels’ loading degrees and cargo transport to a different degree, depending on the regions.
• On the Upper and Middle Rhine (between Basel and Cologne), vessels’ maximum loading degrees fell to levels between 40 % and 50 %, while they remained above 60 % for the Lower Rhine (between Cologne and Duisburg).
• Freight rates on the Rhine and the Danube rose strongly due to the decrease of the available effective transport capacity. However, for vessels operating in the Netherlands, where the low water period was less severe, the price increase was very limited.

 

IWT COMPANIES – DISTRIBUTION IN EUROPE

NUMBER OF IWT COMPANIES PER COUNTRY IN EUROPE

Source: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] for all countries, except: StatBel (Belgium), Bundesamt für Statistik (Switzerland)

 

 

 

WATER LEVELS AND VESSELS’ LOADING DEGREES IN THE RHINE BASIN

 

 

MAXIMUM LOADING DEGREE OF VESSELS WITH A DRAUGHT OF 3 M AT GAUGING STATIONS ALONG THE RHINE (%)

Source: Calculation CCNR based on data provided by the Federal German Office of Hydraulicity

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 1 Maximum loading degree of vessels with a draught of 3 m at gauging stations along the Rhine

 

• The maximum loading degrees differ according to vessel type and the location of a river. They are calculated by the CCNR on a monthly basis, based on a formula that takes into account specific waterway parameters and the water level data themselves (for more information on the method, see the journal “SVS aktuell” of the “Schweizerische Vereinigung für Schifffahrt und Hafenwirtschaft” (Swiss Association for Shipping and Ports), edition December 2018 / January 2019, pages 7-8).
• According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (see: Ademmer, M.; Jannsen, N.; Kooths, S.; Mösle, S. (2019). Niedrigwasser bremst Produktion (Low water slows production level), in: Wirtschaftsdienst 99 (1), 79-80), the low water period on the Rhine curbed the growth rate of industrial production in Germany in Q3 2018 by 0.8 percentage points, equivalent to 1.9 billion euros. Temporary interruptions of logistical chains, notably for the chemical industry and for container traffic, are mainly responsible for this loss.
• The correlation between goods transport on the Rhine and water levels / loading degrees shows that larger vessels are more vulnerable to low water periods. This raises the question of new/updated logistical concepts and low draught ships, including the possible revival of smaller vessels in the future.

 

 

QUARTERLY GOODS TRANSPORT ON THE RHINE AND VESSELS’ LOADING DEGREES AT KAUB/RHINE

Source: Calculation CCNR based on data provided by the Federal German Office of Hydraulicity

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 2 Quarterly goods transport on the Rhine and vessels loading degrees at Kaub Rhine

 

WATER LEVELS AND VESSELS’ LOADING DEGREES IN THE DANUBE BASIN

 

 

 

MAXIMUM LOADING DEGREE OF VESSELS WITH A DRAUGHT OF 3 M AT GAUGING STATIONS ALONG THE DANUBE (IN %)

Source: Calculation CCNR based on data provided by the Federal German Office of Hydraulicity, viadonau and the General Directorate of Water Management in Hungary

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 3 Maximum loading degree of vessels with a draught of 3 m at gauging stations along the Danube

 

• Within the Danube basin, a relatively limited impact of low waters on vessels’ loading degrees in Austria and Hungary can be observed. However, a more pronounced impact on Germany is visible. This can be explained by the fact that the German Danube is a free-flowing river in many parts.

 

 

QUARTERLY GOODS TRANSPORT IN HUNGARY AND VESSELS’ LOADING DEGREES IN BUDAPEST

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave] and calculation CCNR based on data from General Directorate of Water Management in Hungary

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 4 Quarterly goods transport in Hungary and vessel loading degree in Budapest

 

• In Hungary, not only low water periods, but also ice periods (for example in Q1 2017) and the general seasonality of Danube transports – related to the agricultural segment – affect transport activity and operating conditions quite strongly.

 

 

FREIGHT RATES AND BUNKER PRICES IN THE RHINE BASIN

 

CBS FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR THE NETHERLANDS, BUNKER PRICES AND OIL IMPORT COSTS*

Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistik (Netherlands), CBRB and IEA
* Volume-weighted average costs, includes France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Canada and USA, cost of insurance and freight included (cif)

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 5 1 CBS Freight Rate Index for the Netherlands

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 5 2 Bunker prices and oil import costs

 

• The CBS conducts regular surveys among 80 Dutch IWW companies, eight times per year. The prices include fuel and low water surcharges. The revenue of a company determines the influence it has on the price index. According to this index, dry bulk freight rates of companies in the Netherlands increased strongly in Q3 2018, reflecting partly the international traffic towards the Rhine hinterland where low water levels were present.
• The liquid bulk part of the CBS index includes freight traffic in multiple areas, such as the Rhine, but also shorter trips within the ARA area (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) and other locations within the Netherlands where the water level has less impact on the amount of cargo that can be shipped. It contains spot market rates as well as (long-term) contract rates, and the delivery of all types of liquid bulk (chemicals, diesel, fuel oil, methanol, naphta, sunflower oil, etc.)
• The liquid bulk PJK index is a spot market index based on the transport of oil products from the ARA region via the Rhine to destinations in Germany, France and Switzerland. Its spot market character and the fact that it is based purely on the ARA-Rhine trade, where water levels had a stronger impact on the market than in the Netherlands, explain the differences in its evolution compared to the CBS index for liquid cargo.

 

 

PJK FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR LIQUID CARGO FROM THE ARA REGION TO DESTINATIONS ALONG THE RHINE – COMPARED WITH VESSELS’ LOADING DEGREE AT MAXAU/UPPER RHINE*

Source: Calculation CCNR based on PJK International and German Federal Office for Hydrology
* Gasoil freight rates including pilotage, harbour and canal dues
Left figure: average freight rate level, right figure: per destination

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 6 1 Vessels loading degree at Maxau Upper Rhine

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 6 2 PJK Freight Rate Index for liquid cargo from the ARA region to destinations along the Rhine

 

• Freight rates also differ according to vessel classes. Each waterway is limited by the dimensions of the locks and boat lifts. The Classification of European Inland Waterways (CEMT) is a set of standards for navigable waterways and vessel classes.
• The following figure shows that freight rates for larger vessels increased markedly during low water periods. This is because the supply side (loading capacity) of larger vessels is more affected during low water periods than the supply side for smaller vessels.
• The freight rates per CEMT-class include all kinds of dry cargo and all sailing areas in the Rhine basin. However, the smaller vessel classes (CEMT class I & II = Vessel types Spits and Kempenaar with a cargo capacity of up to 650 t) generally transport agricultural products on the spot market and mainly operate on Dutch and Belgian waterways.

 

 

PANTEIA FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR DRY CARGO TRANSPORT PER CEMT WATERWAY CLASSES (2015=100)

Source: Panteia

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 7 Panteia Freight Rate Index for dry cargo transport per CEMT waterway classes

 

FREIGHT RATES AND BUNKER PRICES IN THE DANUBE BASIN

 

• According to the Danube Commission, the average bunker price in the Danube region was 710 to 735 US-$ per tonne in Q1 2018 and Q2 2018, and 755 US-$ per tonne in Q3 2018. This corresponds to 127€ to 132€ per 100 litre in the first half year, and to 136€ per 100 litre in Q3 2018, which is well above the price level in Western Europe (see previous page).
• There has been a strong price increase in bunker costs in recent times: in the first nine months of 2018, the costs were 27 % above the average level of 2017 (source: Danube Commission (2019), Market Observation Danube navigation, first 9 months 2018).
• Freight rates in the Danube region were pushed upwards by rising bunker costs and by the low water levels in parts of the Danube. Freight rates for upstream transport on the Danube (where iron ore and coal are transported) were higher than freight rates for downstream traffic.

 

 

FREIGHT RATE INDEX IN DANUBE SHIPPING

Source: Danube Commission, analysis CCNR

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 8 1 Freight Rate Index in Danube shipping

 

EVOLUTION OF BUNKER PRICES IN THE DANUBE REGION

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 8 2 Evolution of bunker prices in the Danube region

 

QUARTERLY IWT TURNOVER EVOLUTION PER COUNTRY IN EUROPE

Quarterly data on turnover in IWT are at present only available for very few countries, due to statistical limitations. EUROSTAT presents data for the NACE sector H50 (water transport) which covers maritime and IWT transport together. Based on this dataset, it is possible to identify turnover in IWT only for countries with almost no activity in maritime shipping. For France, Germany and the Netherlands, quarterly turnover data are provided by the national statistical offices (INSEE; Destatis, CBS).

 

 

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NETHERLANDS AND IN GERMANY – MAINLY GOODS TRANSPORT*(2015=100)

Source: Source: CBS, Destatis
* For the Netherlands, the series contains turnover from total IWT, but goods transport has a very high share of 92 %; for Germany, the series contains only turnover from goods transport.

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 9 Turnover development in the Netherlands and in Germany

 

• Despite a drop of goods transport in the Netherlands and Germany, turnover picked up. The reason was the increase in freight rates, due to the low water levels (see previous pages).
• Railway and road goods transport in Germany witnessed a somewhat flat turnover evolution during the years 2017 and 2018. But the turnover level in Q3 2018 was 12-13 % higher than in the reference year 2015, whereas turnover in German IWT was – despite the rise in Q3 2018 – still 3 % lower than in 2015.
• In the Netherlands, turnover in railway goods transport in Q3 2018 exceeded the level of 2015 by 9 %. As in Germany, its evolution since 2017 has been rather flat, but on a higher overall level than in inland shipping (source: Destatis (Germany) and CBS (Netherlands)).

 

 

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN AUSTRIA, FRANCE AND GERMANY – MAINLY PASSENGER TRANSPORT*(2015=100)

Source: Eurostat [sts_setu_q] for Austria, Destatis for Germany and INSEE for France
* For Austria, the series contains turnover from total IWT, but the sector activity is dominated by passenger transport; for Germany and France, the data contain only turnover in passenger transport.

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 10 Turnover development in Austria, France and Germany

 

• Turnover of Austrian, French and German passenger shipping companies showed the usual seasonal variations, proving that this segment was not too severely affected by the low water levels. The number of cruise vessels on the Upper Danube at the German-Austrian border was 6 % higher in 2018 than in 2017.
• Passenger shipping was also not severely affected on the Middle Danube. According to the Danube Commission, the number of cruise vessels passing the lock at Mohacs in southern Hungary was only 3 % lower in Q3 2018 than one year previously (Market Observation of the Danube Commission, results of the first nine months of 2018).
• For the interpretation of these figures, it should be said that most of the 228 river cruise vessels active on the Danube are registered and owned by companies in Rhine countries: 54% are registered in Switzerland, 18% in Germany, 5% in the Netherlands and also 5% in France. In addition, 14 % of the Danube cruise vessels are Registered in Malta. Vessels registered in Danube countries have a share of only 3 % of the cruise fleet active on the Danube.

• Yearly goods transport performance on inland waterways in Romania represents 8.5% of the total European inland waterway transport performance (12,517 Million TKM in 2017).
• Behind iron ores, sand and gravel, the agricultural products are the second largest IWT goods segment in Romania, representing 23.1% of the total transport performance of agricultural products in the EU.
• Constanta and Galati are the 1st and 3rd largest seaports in Romania, also registering respectively an inland waterway traffic of 3.91 and 1.65 million tonnes in Q3 2018.

 

PORTS IN ROMANIA

INLAND WATERWAY CARGO TRAFFIC IN Q1-Q3 2018 (IN MILLION TONNES)

Source: National Institute of Statistics (Romania)

 

 

PORT OF CONSTANTA AND PORT OF GALATI

 

• With 29 million tonnes of maritime traffic in Q1-Q3 2018, the port of Constanța is the largest seaport in Romania as well as in the whole Danube region. It is very important for the export of grain and for the import of iron ores and coal.
• The seaport of Constanța is also an important point of loading and unloading of river transport, and the river traffic is fluctuating at around a quarterly amount of 3 million tonnes.
• The port of Galati is a river-sea port and is also the third-largest seaport of Romania. Its seagoing traffic amounted to 0.9 million tonnes in Q1-Q3 2018. On the export side, metals from the local steel industry play the largest role. As in Constanța, grain exports from the Danube hinterland are also very important.
• Inland waterway traffic in the river-sea port of Galati has followed an upward trend in the last years, and the dry weather has not interrupted this trend.

 

 

INLAND WATERWAY TRAFFIC IN THE PORTS OF GALATI AND CONSTANTA (IN MILLION TONNES)

Source: National Institute of Statistics (Romania), CCNR analysis

 

GALATI

CH 3 Figure 3 1 1 Inland waterway traffic in the ports of Galati

 

CONSTANTA

CH 3 Figure 3 1 2 Inland waterway traffic in the ports of Constanza

 

 

 

Source: Analysis CCNR based on Eurostat data [sbs_na_1a_se_r2], [iww_go_atygo], [iww_go_actygo], [tran_hv_frmod], [iww_eq_loadcap], [road_go_ta_tcrg], [rail_go_contwgt], [iww_eq_age], CCNR fleet database
Notes: “Share in EU total” contains figures for the EU plus Switzerland and Serbia.
# In contrast to transport performance, for transport volume a country-specific share cannot be calculated due to double-counting problems (cross-border transport).

 

IWT GOODS TRANSPORT IN ROMANIA BY SEGMENT

 

• The quarterly series show heavy seasonal fluctuations for IWT in Romania, due to the harvest cycle and the winter season. In the third quarter of a year (harvest time), the share of agricultural products rises to 38-40 % of total IWT. The third quarter 2018 showed a resilient transport demand, as the lower Danube region has a riversea-character, with large water depths, so that the dry weather in 2018 could not damage transport evolution.

 

 

QUARTERLY TRANSPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS ON INLAND WATERWAYS IN ROMANIA COMPARED WITH TOTAL QUARTERLY
IWT (IN MILLION TONNES)

Source: National Institute of Statistics (Romania)

 

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

 

CH 3 Figure 3 2 1 Quarterly transport of agricultural products on inland waterways in Romania

 

 

TOTAL IWT

 

CH 3 Figure 3 2 2 Total quarterly IWT in Romania

 

• Within international transport, Serbia and Bulgaria are the most important trading partners for Romania, followed by Hungary. 76 % of all international traffic comes from these three countries or goes to them.

 

COUNTRIES OF LOADING AND UNLOADING WITHIN INTERNATIONAL IWT FOR ROMANIA (1000 TONNES)*

Source: National Institute of Statistics (Romania)
* Q1-Q3 2018

CH 3 Figure 3 3 Countries of loading and unloading within international IWT for Romania

 

• The transport relations of Romania are quite intense with the middle Danube region (Serbia, Hungary) and the lower Danube region (Bulgaria, Ukraine, Moldova), but far less intense with the upper Danube region (Slovakia, Austria, Germany).

• The overall development of IWT in Europe in the third quarter of 2018 was affected by the low water period which occurred in the second half of the year.

• In the third quarter of 2018, transport performance on European inland waterways reached 32.1 billion TKM.

• This transport performance represented a decrease of 14.9 % compared to the third quarter of 2017, including -27% for the traditional Rhine, -36% for its affluents and -10% for the Danube.

 

Transport performance in Europe

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON
BETWEEN Q3 2017 AND Q3 2018 (TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MILLION TKM)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD, National Statistical Offices, CCNR

 

INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE RHINE, RHINE AFFLUENTS*, DANUBE**, BELGIAN AND DUTCH WATERWAYS (TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MILLION TKM)*

Source: Destatis, StatBel, Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD, calculation CCNR
*Rhine affluents: Main, Mosel, Neckar, Saar
**Danube: Transport performance in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria.

CH 1 Figure 1 1 Inland waterway transport on the Rhine Rhine affluents Danube Belgian and Dutch waterways

 

 

• Due to the long-lasting and extreme low water situation in Europe in summer and autumn 2018, transport fell in many parts of Europe in Q3 2018, but there were some exceptions. On the lower Danube, which has a share of 75 % of total Danube transport performance, the result was higher (+2 %). On the Middle (-38 %) and Upper Danube (-48 %), however, the decline was considerable. The lower Danube (Romania, Bulgaria) was able to perform well because the draught of inland vessels was not restricted by the available water depth due to the river-sea-character of the fairway between the port of Braila and the Black Sea. The port of Galati is located in this river-sea-stretch (see section on ports and chapter 3).
• The total transport performance on the Dutch waterways is largely affected by the Rhine performance (due to hinterland traffic from the Dutch and Belgium seaports to Germany and further upstream). The impact of low waters on the national transport performance was less severe than for the Rhine and its IJssel branch, as the water depth on waterways such as in the ARA region (between Antwerp, Rotterdam and Amsterdam) acted as a stabilizer.
• On the traditional Rhine, 38.2 million tonnes were transported in Q3 2018, representing 18 % less cargo transport compared to Q3 2017. Container transport fell by 20 %, liquid cargo by 16 % and dry cargo by 14 %. It must be taken into account that the Middle and Upper Rhine, which were much more affected by low water levels than the Lower Rhine (see also chapter 2), have a share of 42 % of the total liquid cargo transport performance (along the Middle Rhine, large chemical industrial complexes are present) on the traditional Rhine and its affluents.
• Similarly, the Middle and Upper Rhine’s share within total container transport performance on the traditional Rhine and its affluents is 49 %, a much higher deal than for dry cargo, which therefore explains the rather strong decrease of container transport by 20 % on the whole traditional Rhine.
• On the Main, 3.5 million tonnes were transported in Q3 2018, which signifies 1 million tonnes less IWT (-23 %). For the year 2018 in total, figures from the Directorate General for Waterways and Shipping (GDWS) point to a reduction of around 20 %.
• On the Moselle, 1.73 million tonnes in Q3 2018 were registered (1/3 less than in Q3 2017). Figures from the GDWS indicate -16.4 % for the total year 2018.
• The Saar witnessed the strongest decrease of all Rhine tributaries. Its traffic was cut almost by half: 0.58 million tonnes in Q3 2018 compared to 1 million tonnes in Q3 2017. GDWS figures indicate -28 % for the total year 2018.

 

Container transport on the Rhine – An origin-destination analysis

 

• On the traditional Rhine, 1.76 million TEU were transported in the first three quarters of 2018. The intensity of container transport hereby differs according to the stretches of the Rhine. The highest intensity is on the Lower Rhine section, with 1.73 million TEU. On the Upper Rhine, 0.67 million TEU were transported (the TEU values for the Lower and Upper Rhine cannot be summarised as this would lead to double-counting). Where do these containers come from and where do they go? The following figures shed light on this topic.

 

CONTAINER TRANSPORT ON THE UPPER RHINE ACCORDING TO COUNTRY OF LOADING AND UNLOADING

Source: calculation CCNR based on data from Destatis and from Port of Strasbourg, Port of Mulhouse

 

CH 1 Figure 1 2 Container transport on the Upper Rhine according to country of loading and unloading

 

 

• It can be observed that containers are sent from German, Swiss and French Rhine ports to the seaports in Belgium and the Netherlands. For container transport on the Upper Rhine, Belgian seaports receive more TEU from the hinterland than Dutch seaports. On the Lower Rhine, the lead of Belgium is small, but still exists for container export traffic coming from the hinterland.

 

 

CONTAINER TRANSPORT ON THE LOWER RHINE ACCORDING TO COUNTRY OF LOADING AND UNLOADING

Source: calculation CCNR based on data from Destatis and from Port of Strasbourg, Port of Mulhouse

 

CH 1 Figure 1 3 Container transport on the Lower Rhine according to country of loading and unloading

 

• For the import direction (containers coming from the seaports and going to Rhine ports in Germany, France, Switzerland), the seaports in the Netherlands send more TEU to the hinterland than the Belgian ports: for the Lower Rhine, there are twice as many TEU coming from the Netherlands, and arriving in Germany, than TEU coming from Belgium and arriving in Germany. For the Upper Rhine, this ratio is 1.4: 1 in favour of the Netherlands (for 10 TEU coming from Belgium, 14 come from the Netherlands).

 

 

Container transport on the Rhine – Share of filled containers per country of loading

 

• Information about the share of filled and empty containers per country of loading is also available. For the Upper Rhine, the results are shown in the figure below.

 

 

SHARE OF FILLED CONTAINERS ON THE UPPER RHINE ACCORDING TO COUNTRY OF LOADING (IN %)

Source: calculation CCNR based on data from Destatis

 

CH 1 Figure 1 4 Share of filled containers on the Upper Rhine according to country of loading

 

 

• In the first three quarters of 2018, 87.2 % of the containers that were loaded in French Rhine ports were filled with goods, and only 12.8 % were empty. For containers loaded in German and Swiss Rhine ports, the share of filled containers is also above the 80 % level.
• For containers loaded in the Netherlands and in Belgium, less than one half of all containers were filled with goods. For the Upper Rhine, on average, the ratio was 68 % for filled containers against 32 % for empty containers.
• These different values mirror to a large extent the export of goods from the Upper Rhine region to destinations abroad, and the import of empty containers from abroad (back to the ports along the Upper Rhine where they can be re-filled with goods for export purposes).
• The same calculation for the Lower Rhine indicates that the share of filled containers remains high for France, Germany and Switzerland as countries of loading. The share of filled containers that were loaded in Belgium and the Netherlands is however rising.

 

 

SHARE OF FILLED CONTAINERS ON THE LOWER RHINE ACCORDING TO COUNTRY OF LOADING (IN %)

Source: calculation CCNR based on data from Destatis

 

CH 1 Figure 1 5 Share of filled containers on the Lower Rhine according to country of loading

 

 

Transport volume in main IWT countries in Europe

 

 

INLAND SHIPPING TRANSPORT VOLUME IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (QUARTERLY DATA – MILLION TONNES)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave] and National Statistical Offices

CH 1 Figure 1 6 Inland shipping transport volume in main European IWT countries

 

 

Dry bulk, liquid bulk and container transport

 

 

RATE OF CHANGE IN INLAND SHIPPING TRANSPORT VOLUME (TONNES) IN FOUR MAJOR IWT COUNTRIES (Q3 2018 VS Q3 2017 – %)*

Source: Source: CBS, Destatis, StatBel, Romanian Institute of Statistics
* In Romania, container transport is at a very low level and is therefore not depicted in the graph. The container data for Belgium are provisional.

 

CH 1 Figure 1 7 Rate of change in inland shipping transport volume in four major IWT countries

• In Germany, dry cargo’s share is 56 %, liquid cargo represents 25 % and container transport 12 %. Packaged and other cargo accounts for the remaining shares. The variations per goods segments are the following (in Q3 2018 compared to Q3 2017): metals (-22 %), chemicals (-16 %), coal (-8 %), iron ore (-13 %), agricultural products (-14 %), sand & stones (-16 %). Export traffic lost 22 %. Import traffic fell by 14 %, and national traffic by 7 %.
• In the Netherlands, dry cargo’s share is 56 %, liquid cargo represents 30 % and container transport 14 %. In Q3 2018 compared to Q3 2017, export of dry bulk fell by 8 %, export of liquid bulk by 9 % and export of containers by 6 %. National traffic was resilient: dry bulk traffic increased by 4 %, liquid bulk by 2 % and container traffic by 8 %.
• In Romania, dry cargo has a share of 95.1 %, liquid cargo 4.6 % and container transport 0.2 %. Transport activity was very robust, due to specific natural conditions (see chapter 3). The dry cargo sector benefitted from a 28 % increase of iron ore transport. Sands, stones and construction materials increased by 11 %. The largest product segment which is grain remained relatively stable (see chapter 3)(based on transport volumes (in t), grain is the largest segment in Romania, while it is iron ore, based on TKM).

 

 

Waterside transport in European ports

 

 

WATERSIDE TRANSSHIPMENT VOLUME IN Q1-Q3 2017, WATERSIDE TRANSSHIPMENT VOLUME IN Q1-Q3 2018 AND RATE OF CHANGE BETWEEN BOTH

Source: Destatis (German ports), Danube Commission (Austrian, Slovakian and Serbian ports), Hungarian Central Statistical Office (Hungarian ports), Romanian Institute of Statistics (Romanian ports), and ports data (for all other ports)
* Data for the ports of Liège and Metz include the 4 quarters of 2017 and 2018.