• In 2021, the market situation was still characterised by a rather low activity on the demand side, as a direct result of the pandemic, which slowed down the shipbuilding activity for river cruises.
• The number of river cruise vessels in Europe reached 405, with nine new vessels commissioned (compared to 19 in 2020). The downward trend in the newbuilding rate is expected to continue in 2022.
• Even though it is possible to observe a recovery of cruise vessel movements in 2021, river cruise transit figures at locks on the Rhine are still 55% below the pre-pandemic level of 2019. The occupancy rate of vessels is also well below the 2019 level.

 

  • The market situation in 2021 was still characterised by a rather low activity on the demand side, which slowed down the shipbuilding activity for river cruises. The recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic led to an increase in the price of raw materials such as steel, necessary for building new vessels, but also to difficulties in obtaining supplies of certain components. Shipyards specialised in cruise vessels count among those who suffered the most from the pandemic. Some examples of recent bankruptcies in this sector exist, such as the shipyard “De Hoop” in the Netherlands or the shipyard “Meuse et Sambre” in Belgium.

 

FLEET FOR RIVER CRUISES55

 

  • The active river cruise fleet in Europe represents more than 40% of the world active river cruise fleet. The fleet for river cruises in the EU is mainly concentrated on central European waterways56 (close to 75% of the total river cruise fleet in the EU).
  • In 2021, the number of river cruise vessels in Europe reached 405, amounting to 59,750 beds (compared to 397 active vessels in 2020 with 57,940 beds).
  •  

    FIGURE 1: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS IN THE EU BY REGION OF OPERATION (2004 – 2022) *


    Source: Hader, A. (March 2022), The River Cruise Fleet *2022: based on order book as of March 2022
     

  • In the 2021 season, nine new vessels were commissioned (compared to 19 in 2020), but not all of them started cruising. Two additional vessels were commissioned in 2021 but their completion was delayed to 2022. The 11 newbuilds which were commissioned in 2021 are expected to operate in the following regions: eight on central European waterways, two on the Danube, and one on the Rhône.
  • The downward trend in new building orders reflects the reduction of passenger demand due to the pandemic. It is expected to continue in 2022, as only three new vessels are to be delivered in 2022, as well as the two others which were postponed from 2021 to 2022.
  •   

    FIGURE 2: NEW RIVER CRUISE VESSELS FOR THE EUROPEAN MARKET 2004-2023 *


    Source: Hader, A. (March 2022), The River Cruise Fleet
    * 2022 and 2023: based on order books as of March 2022. Note that out of the 11 new vessels commissioned in 2021, two will be delivered in 2022.

     

  • In 2021, the 11 new vessels brought an additional capacity of 1,963 beds (compared to 3,155 beds in 2020) to the river cruise market in Europe.
  •  

    FIGURE 3: NEW CRUISE CAPACITIES IN 2020, 2021 AND 2022 PER REGION OF OPERATION (NUMBER OF BEDS) *


    Source: Hader, A. (March 2022), The River Cruise Fleet
    *R-M-D= Rhine/Main/Main-Danube Canal/Danube. 2022: based on order books as of March 2022.

     

  • After a decrease between 2014 and 2018, the average number of beds in new cruise vessels has been rising continuously. Indeed, owners now make use of the extension of the length limit to 135 m, enabling the installation of more cabins on a river cruise vessel.
  •  

    FIGURE 4: AVERAGE NUMBER OF BEDS IN NEW RIVER CRUISE VESSELS IN EUROPE BY YEAR OF CONSTRUCTION *


    Source: Hader, A. (March 2022), The River Cruise Fleet
    * Figure for 2022: forecast

 

DEMAND FOR RIVER CRUISES

 

  • The year 2021, as the year 2020, was again affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Overall, the figures show that the industry was able to withstand the second pandemic year with restraint and that it is on a path, yet difficult, to normality. The statistical collection of the annual figures for the 2021 river cruise season was a difficult exercise as the business activities of the companies were not in normal operation for a long part of the year. At the beginning of the season, only travel within Germany was possible. The Italian and French markets opened up only in June 2021.57 The greatest negative effects of the pandemic for river cruises in Europe was the impossibility for tourists from the United States to book river cruises in Europe in 2021, even if smaller vessels benefited from some exemptions. Instead of travelling to Europe, most US-Americans travelled on US-American waters. As a result, the company American Cruise Lines recently ordered 12 new cruise vessels. In fact, overseas passengers from US- Americans, who account for about 50% of the passenger volume in normal years, found their way to Europe very late and only in small numbers.
  • In light of the above, figures for 2021 could only be collected in detail for the German travel market. Regarding this market specifically, the number of passengers who booked a river cruise in Germany increased by 62.8%, in 2021 to reach 182,844 passengers. Those numbers are however still 66% below the passenger numbers recorded for the year 2019 (with 541,133 passengers). A trend to normalisation is observable and the German industry expects to reach pre-Covid levels within two years. It is worth noting that the industry sees the shift to a more environmentally-friendly fleet as highly relevant for its future.58
  • The yearly vessel movement figures of river cruising on the Danube, Rhine and Moselle show that in 2021, cruising activity on the Upper Danube (at the Austrian-German border) was still 66% below the pre-pandemic level of 2019. On the Rhine, the gap between 2021 and 2019 was 55%, and 35% on the Moselle.
  • In general, it must be noted that the capacity utilisation of cruise vessels is still lower than before the pandemic. This means that the gap in terms of number of passengers is even larger than the gap in terms of vessel movements.
  •  

    FIGURES 5, 6 AND 7: YEARLY NUMBER OF CRUISE VESSEL TRANSITS ON DANUBE, RHINE AND MOSELLE




    Sources: German Waterway and Shipping Administration and Moselle Commission
    * Rhine = Upper Rhine (lock of Iffezheim). Danube = Upper Danube at the Austrian-German border (lock of Jochenstein). Moselle = lock of Koblenz.

     

  • For the Danube, the following tables show figures for vessel movements and for passenger numbers in a higher geographical resolution. Three measurement points along the Danube are hereby distinguished:
    • German-Austrian border (lock of Jochenstein), for which data were shown graphically in Figure 5
    • Slovakian-Hungarian border (lock of Gabčíkovo)
    • Hungarian-Croatian-Serbian border (border point of Mohács in southern Hungary)
  • By this geographical distinction it is possible to observe differences in cruising intensity on the Danube. The distinction shows that the activity is highest between Vienna and Budapest. Cruising activity south of Budapest is lower than on the Danube stretches upstream of Budapest.
  •  

    TABLE 1: CRUISE VESSEL TRAFFIC ON THE DANUBE AT THE GERMAN-AUSTRIAN BORDER (LOCK OF JOCHENSTEIN) AND NUMBER OF PASSENGERS

    Border DE/AT
    YearNumber of vessel transitsNumber of passengersAverage number of passengers per vessel
    20153,456473,800137
    20163,134430,00137
    20173,204414,153129
    20183,625507,665140
    20193,668512,500140
    202032425,16078
    20211,255107,72786

    Sources: German Waterway and Shipping Administration and Danube Commission
     

    TABLE 2: CRUISE VESSEL TRAFFIC ON THE DANUBE AT THE SLOVAKIAN-HUNGARIAN BORDER (LOCK OF GABČÍKOVO) AND NUMBER OF PASSENGERS

    Border SK/HU
    YearNumber of vessel transitsNumber of passengersAverage number of passengers per vessel
    20153,702534,000144
    20163,946564,700143
    20174,210595,500141
    20183,945548,800139
    20195,141720,800140
    202055756,100101
    20211,419149,100105

    Source: Danube Commission
     

    TABLE 3: CRUISE VESSEL TRAFFIC ON THE DANUBE AT THE HUNGARIAN-CROATIAN-SERBIAN BORDER (MOHÁCS) AND NUMBER OF PASSENGERS

    Border HU/HR/RS
    YearNumber of vessel transitsNumber of passengersAverage number of passengers per vessel
    201566783,000124
    201669386,900125
    201770797,700138
    2018754103,600137
    20191,017135,040133
    2020585,14189
    202132834,100104

    Source: Danube Commission
     

  • Regarding passenger traffic in the Sava and Kupa river ports, most of the passenger traffic is recorded at the port of Belgrade, Serbia. Since 2015, the number of river cruise passengers recorded by the port of Belgrade (passenger terminal) has constantly increased, from 60,000 passengers in 2015 to 104,000 in 2019.
  • This reflects the positive evolution of cruising activity observed on the Danube. Indeed, most of the cruise vessels that stop in Belgrade are generally for cruises that take place along the Danube and stop in the main eastern European capitals. As is the case in other regions, passenger traffic suffered from the Covid-19 pandemic. In Belgrade, only 561 passengers were recorded by the port in 2020, and 19,000 in 2021. It is expected that the pandemic will continue to have an impact on passenger traffic in 2022. Navigability conditions on the waterways also remain an obstacle for the further development of passenger transport in this region.59

 

OUTLOOK FOR RIVER CRUISES

 

  • The war in Ukraine came as an additional blow for the river cruise industry. Firstly, because the attractiveness of the lower Danube region might be affected, disturbing the European river cruise market further. Secondly, several river cruising companies report cancellations of previously booked cruises from the US-American client market. The reason is that US-American tourists might perceive the war in Ukraine as a phenomenon linked to Europe in general.
  • In addition to a decrease in demand, there will also be bottlenecks on the supply side, as the crew working on river cruise vessels is directly affected. Indeed, many Ukrainian captains and crew members were active in the European river cruise market. Their numbers have been rising in recent years. Due to the war, they remained in Ukraine in 2022. Also, fuel costs are currently soaring, which may lead to higher travel fares, thereby impacting passenger demand as well.
  • It seems that new orders for river cruise vessels are starting to be placed again, with seven river cruise vessels in the 2022 order books. Specifically, in March 2022, the UK cruise operator SAGA Travel ordered four 135 m vessels for operation on various European rivers (to be delivered in 2023).