9. OUTLOOK FOR INLAND WATERWAY FREIGHT TRANSPORT AND RIVER CRUISES

• The year 2023 saw a strong decrease in steel production, but a small increase in iron ore transport, in both Rhine and Danube countries. Steel production is expected to rebound in 2024, although remaining less active than prior to the pandemic. Although the prices of most of the main agricultural goods decreased worldwide, their production in Europe stagnated. The chemicals sector is still suffering from economic and geopolitical uncertainty, but early signs of a recovery from 2025 are visible, though uncertain.
• The last six years have been difficult for container transport in Europe due to the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the low water episodes in 2018 and 2022 and more recently the stagnation of world trade. A recovery may be on the horizon, however, as early 2024 figures suggest an end to this long-lasting decline and the return to growth, however slow it may be.
• The long-term forecasts point to a stagnation or slow rise of the output in almost all main market segments across Rhine and Danube countries. The most notable exception is coal, where the demand will probably continue to decrease, as European countries strive to move towards renewable energy sources.

• Inland waterway transport in its present structure relies on traditional market segments. Examples are the steel, agricultural, chemical and food segments.

 

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR IWT MARKETS IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES

STEEL AND IRON ORE

• On the entire Rhine, around 17% of all cargo transport is related to steel production (iron ore, scrap steel, coking coal, metals, metal products). On the Danube, this share is even higher and amounts to 40% for the Middle Danube.
• Iron ore transport on the Rhine in general follows the same downward trend as steel production, despite a small divergence in 2023, due to a replenishment of stocks for iron ore. Steel production in Rhine countries decreased by -9.4% in 2023 compared to 2022, while transport of iron ore on the entire Rhine increased by +2.5%.

 

FIGURES 1 AND 2: STEEL PRODUCTION IN RHINE COUNTRIES AND TRANSPORT OF IRON ORE ON THE ENTIRE RHINE

Figures for transport of iron ore on the entire Rhine updated in November 2024.
 




 
Sources: World Steel Association, Eurofer, Destatis, Rijkswaterstaat, CCNR analysis
 
• Steel production in Danube countries⁶² amounted to 16.4 million tonnes in 2023, a decrease of -8.2% compared to 2022.

 

FIGURES 3 AND 4: STEEL PRODUCTION IN DANUBE COUNTRIES AND TRANSPORT OF IRON ORE ON THE LOWER DANUBE *



 
Sources: World Steel Association, Eurostat [iww_go_atygo]
* Lower Danube = Romania and Bulgaria
Data for Middle Danube countries were mostly missing.

 
Outlook for the iron ore and steel segment
• According to Eurofer, 2023 was still marked by persistent negative factors such as the conflict in Ukraine or rises in energy prices and production costs, which led to a contraction of steel demand (-9%). Improvements are foreseen for 2024 but volumes are still expected to be below pre-pandemic levels.
• However, despite these persisting adverse factors, steel-using sectors’ output has continued to grow in 2023 (+1.1%). Nevertheless, in 2024, steel-using sectors’ output is projected to drop (-1%), mainly due to the second recession in a row in the construction sector, before picking up again in 2025 (+2%).
• As to developments observed in 2023 and foreseen in 2024-2025 for important steel-using sectors:
  – The construction sector has experienced a negative trend throughout 2023 (-1%) due to multiple factors. This should continue impacting the sector in 2024, with a stronger drop foreseen (-1.9%). A recovery is expected in 2025 (+2.7%).
  – The automotive sector’s output remained below the pre-pandemic levels in 2023 due to rising trade tensions and a downturn in the manufacturing sectors. But there has been a continued output increase since Q2 2022 which was linked to consumer resilience. Indeed, demand for EU passenger car vehicles has improved consistently throughout 2023, supported by easing energy prices. However, the sector is foreseen to experience a marginal contraction in output in 2024 (-0.4%) and a modest growth in 2025 (+0.8%).⁶³
• The World Steel Association points out that the global economy continues to show resilience despite persistent economic downturns such as geopolitical uncertainties, high inflation and high costs. However, in the near future, the negative impacts of these factors are predicted to take their toll on global steel demand growth which should remain weak, as well as on market volatility which should remain high.
• The EU remains the region currently facing the biggest challenges, which resulted in a major drop in the region’s steel demand in 2023. However, the World Steel Association foresees a rebound of demand (+1.7%) in 2024 and a more meaningful recovery in 2025 (+5.3%).⁶⁴

 

AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD PRODUCTS

• Agricultural and food products have a share of around 10% in Rhine navigation and around 23% in Danube navigation. In general, agricultural transport on inland waterways in one specific year is partly determined by harvest results in the previous year. This effect is due to the stockpiling of harvest products.

 

FIGURES 5 AND 6: GRAIN HARVEST PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN RHINE COUNTRIES



Source: Eurostat [apro_cpsh1] and [iww_go_atygo]
 

FIGURES 7 AND 8: GRAIN HARVEST PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN DANUBE COUNTRIES



Source: Eurostat [apro_cpsh1] and [iww_go_atygo]
Missing data for Serbia in 2023

 
Outlook for the agri-food segment
• The war disrupted the Ukrainian and Russian grain exports, mainly due to the closure of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, and sanctions imposed on Russia. The increase in prices for agricultural commodities that followed lasted until the end of July 2022. In August 2022, the Black Sea ports were reopened. The supply shortage disappeared, bringing prices down to their pre-crisis levels. Until the end of 2022, maize and barley prices remained at the pre-crisis level, while wheat prices continued a downward trend.⁶⁵ Between April 2023 and April 2024, prices for barley, maize and soft wheat followed a downward
  trend.⁶⁶

 

• Wheat
  For soft wheat,⁶⁷ an increase is observed on a worldwide scale, as well as for the EU-27 and for France. The situation is very different for hard wheat.⁶⁸ In the harvest season 2023/24, worldwide harvest volumes of hard wheat have reached their lowest level since 2001/02. Smaller harvest volumes are observed for major exporting countries. Also in the European Union, the harvest volume of hard wheat is below the five-year average.

 

• Barley
  Worldwide production is foreseen to decrease in the 2023/24 season, to 146 million tonnes. Also, in the EU-27, barley production is smaller compared to the five-year average. In France however, an increase is observed.

 

• Maize
  Harvest results are expected to increase by +6.1% in the 2023/24 season on a worldwide scale. In the EU-27 and in France in particular, harvest production is smaller than in the 2022/23 season.

 

TABLE 1: HARVEST VOLUMES IN THE SEASON 2023/24 COMPARED TO FIVE-YEAR AVERAGES

Harvest season 2023/24 in million tonnes	World	EU-27	France
Soft wheat	758.4	125.6	35.0
5-year average	750.0	124.1	34.4
Hard wheat	31.4	7.0	1.3
5-year average	34.0	7.6	1.5
Maize	1,227	62.3	11.9
5-year average	1,157	66.4	12.2
Barley	146.0	47.5	12.3
5-year average	154.0	52.4	11.6


Sources: FranceAgriMer April 2024, Banque CIC agriculture, European Commission, Service de la statistique et de la prospective (SSP) du Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire (France)

 

CHEMICALS

• As in 2022, the European chemical sector in 2023 continued to be impacted by the consequences of the war in Ukraine, in particular higher costs of energy and feedstock, the recession in Europe, and inflation – although decreasing – affecting the entire chemical value chain overall. Ultimately, while many in the chemical industry had anticipated a modest rebound in production in 2023, several chemical companies revised their expectations downwards. This phenomenon was worldwide and did not only affect the EU. Chemicals production worldwide grew by +2.3% in 2023, a result mostly attributable to Russia, China, and India while the usually strong USA chemicals sector, for example, has only grown by +1%.⁶⁹
• Within the total transport performance, the share of chemicals amounts approximately to 17% on the Rhine and 11% on the Danube. The transport performance for chemicals in Rhine countries has remained at somewhat stable levels over the last five years, with significant drops in 2018 (low water effect) and 2022 (as a consequence of the war in Ukraine and the low waters).
• In Rhine countries, chemical production came under heavy pressure in 2019 and 2020 from the Covid-19 pandemic, after which it recovered slightly in 2021. However, in 2022, the invasion of Ukraine was followed by important increases in the price of the sector’s petrochemical input factors, causing chemical production to drop sharply in 2022. This phenomenon continued in 2023. Indeed, the chemicals sector is very resource-intensive and the largest energy consumer in Europe, being severely impacted by the repercussions of the war.
  In Danube countries, the decreasing trend which had already started in 2022 for chemical production continued in 2023.
  For both rivers, the trend in transport demand roughly followed the trend in production.

 

FIGURES 9, 10, 11 AND 12: INDEX OF CHEMICAL PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORT OF CHEMICAL PRODUCTS IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES








Source: Eurostat [sts_inpr_a], [iww_go_atygo]
Missing data for France for chemical products transport in 2023.

 
Outlook for the chemical segment
• Given that 88% of all chemical products in the EU are produced in only eight countries, of which four are Rhine countries (Germany, the largest producer, followed by France, the Netherlands and Belgium), the development of the chemical sector in Rhine countries strongly influences the EU chemical sector. Overall, in 2023, chemical production in the EU fell by -8% compared to 2022, an even larger decline than in 2022 compared to 2021 (-6.2%).⁷⁰
• Any precise forecast is difficult to establish as the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, creating much uncertainty in the price and availability of energy (mainly gas) and feedstock. Moreover, the main drivers of the chemical sector, such as the automotive industry and the construction sector, have risen slightly or remained stagnant since October 2023 and May 2023 respectively. Despite this mixed outlook, confidence in the chemicals sector started to rise again in February 2024 as the trade balance is slowly recovering, and destocking seems to be coming to an end.⁷¹ Confidence is still low however and remains well below its pre-war Ukraine levels, with 45% of companies not expecting any improvement until 2025 at the earliest, and 15% of these being unprofitable.⁷² Indeed, energy prices remain high, with gas prices in Europe having stabilised at 50% over their pre-war levels despite a year-long fall that started in August 2022. The American and Chinese competition is strong, as energy prices are much lower (3.9x lower in the USA than in Europe,⁷³) creating an additional hurdle on the way to recovery. Moreover, a rebound of chemical production is expected for the American chemical industry, which should grow even stronger in 2025 and 2026 as some materials and chemicals are needed to support the energy transition, from battery materials and refrigerants to solvents and lubricants.⁷⁴

 

CONTAINERS

• Container transport in inland navigation has been declining for several years. The years 2018 and 2022 witnessed two extended periods of low water levels that restricted navigating the Rhine more in terms of volumes and led to a certain reverse modal shift regarding container transport. Moreover, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 had a significant impact on trade either directly – by hindering Ukraine’s capability to trade – or indirectly – by causing a cascade of geopolitical fragmentations that weakened trade between countries which sided with Russia and those that opposed it.⁷⁵ Finally, in the aftermath of the pandemic, the consumption of goods has slowed down, while the consumption of services has increased, which also contributed to a negative impact on container transport.

 

FIGURES 13 AND 14: INDEX OF CONTAINER THROUGHPUT IN THE WORLD AND IN THE NORTHERN RANGE (2015= 100) AND IWW CONTAINER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE (IN TEU)




RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index, Eurostat [iww_go_actygo]
 
• Despite these difficult circumstances, a recovery might be on the horizon as container transport in Northern Range ports,⁷⁶ witnessed significant increases in container throughput: +3 percentage points in February and +11.2 percentage points in March 2024⁷⁷ (compared to January and February 2024 respectively). These figures point to an end of the long-lasting decline in container throughput in these European maritime ports that started in November 2023, after the first attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo ships in the Red Sea. Furthermore, maritime transport growth is expected to grow in line with trade, stabilising at around +3% per year from 2024 onwards in the short term. However, this growth for container transport remains low compared to the pre-pandemic average of +4.9%⁷⁸ and, regarding Europe, might also be partly due to the arrival of vessels avoiding the Red Sea and to the economic recovery in the Eurozone.
• The outlook for container transport in inland navigation is thus mixed, as geopolitical tensions remain high, and Europe is still recovering from a difficult macroeconomic context. While a short-term recovery appears possible, expectations should be moderated, with growth expected to remain lower than previously predicted as well as lingering uncertainty.

 

OUTLOOK FOR RIVER CRUISES

• The new building activity for river cruises in Europe remained low in 2023, and the active fleet shrank from 410 vessels in 2022 to 408 in 2023. Order books are however filling up, with an increasing number of cruise vessels being planned to be put in circulation in 2024 and 2025; this may mark the beginning of a reversal of the downward trend in the construction of new river cruise vessels observed since 2019.
  At the European level, business expectations for the upcoming season are positive as an increase in the number of river cruises is foreseen for the 2024 season. In addition, in line with the increase in passenger numbers, higher revenue is also expected for the 2024 season.⁷⁹
• Concerning projections for 2024 in France, on the one hand, the river cruise branch is optimistic as to the development of their activity, on the other hand, half of the operators feel worried about a decrease of reservations during the Olympic Games, a deterioration of margins due to higher operating costs and staff shortage. Nevertheless, these obstacles should not hinder investment, as 78% of the managers who took part in the survey expressed their will to invest in modernising or renewing boat installations and equipment.⁸⁰

 
 

LONG RUN OUTLOOK FOR IWT MARKETS IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES

• Transport demand in IWT is derived from the development of underlying economic sectors and branches such as the construction and the energy sectors, the steel industry, the petrochemical and chemical industry, etc. In order to analyse the long- term development of transport demand according to goods segments, it is therefore crucial to look at long-term trends for the production of the respective goods.
• The forecasts below were established on the basis of data from Oxford Economics from January 2024. These forecasts do not therefore take into account events which took place after this date.

 

TABLE 2: SHARE OF MAJOR GOODS SEGMENTS WITHIN RHINE TRANSPORT

Product segment	Share in % in 2022	Share in % in 2023	Average share 2014-2023 in %
Mineral oil products	20.4	22.1	20.6
Chemicals	16.8	16.2	15.2
Sands, stones, gravel	16.4	17.2	17.3
Container	11.2	10.2	10.9
Coal	9.5	7.3	9.0
Agribulk and food products	9.4	9.4	9.2
Iron ore	7.3	7.9	7.6
Metals	5.0	5.0	4.8


Source: CCNR calculation based on Destatis and Rijkswaterstaat
 
• For the Danube, the major goods segments with the highest shares are agricultural products, food products and iron ores. Due to a great deal of missing data, it is not possible to indicate the exact shares per goods segment for the Danube.

 

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES

• A strong correlation between harvest results and inland waterway transport of agricultural products has been found. As an example, Germany witnessed the rise in both these variables between 2008 and 2014 before falling, then somewhat stabilising in 2019. The same kind of correlation has been observed in France between 2014 and 2019.
• While IWT is the preferred mode of transport for long-distance shipping of agricultural and food products according to large shipping companies interrogated as part of a Royal HaskoningDHV study, the 2020 decade is likely to witness a decline in its use. Indeed, the period 2020-2030 is seen as a transition period for agriculture, with a trend towards smaller scale, more localised production. This tendency, coupled with a reduction in the number of small vessels (in which grain is most often carried), could negatively affect the volumes of agricultural products travelling on inland waterways.
• Long-term forecasts for the production of agricultural products foresee a decreasing trend in Germany, but an increasing trend in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland. The gross real output in this sector is foreseen to decrease by -10% between 2023 and 2050 in Germany. For France, a growth of +11% is expected, +28% for the Netherlands, +7% for Belgium and +8% for Switzerland.

 

FIGURE 15: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY AND FISHERY PRODUCTS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• The output of the sector is forecast to fall by -24% in Bulgaria and by -15% in Croatia between 2023 and 2050. It is however expected to increase in Austria (+38%), Slovakia (+25%), Hungary (+6%) and Romania (+2%) in the same time period.

 

FIGURE 16: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY AND FISHERY PRODUCTS IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLAR)


Source: Oxford Economics
 

COAL

• The volume of coal transported on inland waterways is expected to decrease strongly in the next two decades, as European countries progress further in their energy transition. Germany, for example, has planned to close all of its coal power plants by 2038; as a result, the country’s coal imports fell significantly in 2019 (-15%), despite a slight increase in global trade of coal (+0.7%). The same dynamic has been observed in France, as well as in all Danube countries, where coal consumption is forecast to fall to historically low levels in the long run, even for major consumers such as Bulgaria and Romania. In western Europe, Germany has the largest coal consumption and is dependent on coal imports, which are, to a large extent, transported on the Rhine. Despite a short run boom in coal consumption in 2022, the long run outlook for coal demand is negative. Until the year 2050, the outlook for domestic coal demand points to a -89% decrease in Germany. For France, the expected decrease is -82%. For the Netherlands, the reduction is -86%, -73% for Belgium and -68% for Switzerland.

 

FIGURE 17: COAL, DOMESTIC DEMAND IN RHINE COUNTRIES, ANNUALISED (IN MILLION TONNES)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• As for the Rhine countries, coal consumption in countries in the Danube region is expected to follow the same downward trend despite a slight uptake during the Covid-19 pandemic. From 2023 to 2050, the domestic demand for coal is forecast to fall by -75% in Austria, -86% in Croatia, -79% in Hungary, and -64% in Slovakia. The two countries where demand is currently the greatest (Romania and Bulgaria) are expected to witness an even more severe downtrend (-95% and -93% respectively).

 

FIGURE 18: COAL, DOMESTIC DEMAND IN DANUBE COUNTRIES, ANNUALISED (IN MILLION TONNES)


Source: Oxford Economics
 

CONTAINERS

• It is estimated that about 75% of traded goods are shipped by sea.⁸¹ Container transport, in turn, is the dominant mode of transport in maritime trade: nearly 66% of goods transported by sea are containerised.⁸² In the absence of more specific data, and because container transport on inland waterways tends to reflect seaborne container transport and world trade, we are thus using the sum of all imports and exports of goods per country as a proxy to analyse the evolution of container transport on the Rhine. Danube countries are excluded, as container transport on the Danube is exceedingly rare. Similarly, we will use information related to world trade for our outlook for container transport in Europe.
• Container transport is likely to experience a steady growth in western Europe. The highest growth rate between 2023 and 2050 is expected to be seen in Switzerland (+109%). Germany should remain the country with the highest trade value, with an increase of almost +65% in the value of both its exports and imports. The growth of trade value in other western European countries is forecast to be similar to Germany’s, with an increase of +60% in Belgium, +63% in the Netherlands, and +75% in France.
• World trade is expected to recover from the current economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions and grow in volume at a steady rate, despite a structural rearrangement of trade flows due to the said tensions. Indeed, recent years have seen a marked interest in friendshoring and onshoring. The underlying reasons behind this are not only linked to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and with the concerns they caused regarding the apparent weakness of supply chains, but also to environmental concerns.
• Whether friendshoring will last and change the face of world trade in the long run is difficult to say. If it does, it will certainly cause an increase in container trade within Europe, as most European countries are geographically close to each other and generally entertain cordial diplomatic relations within the EU, making friendshoring and onshoring in the future likely. According to the IMF, trade growth between blocs – defined as western countries on the one hand and China, Russia, and countries that sided with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine on the other hand – has decreased by -4.9 percentage points on average between two periods: following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (from Q2-2022 to Q3-2023) and the five years leading up to it (from Q1-2017 to Q1-2022).⁸³

 

FIGURE 19: YEARLY SUM OF REAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF GOODS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN EUROS – IN BILLION EUROS)


Source: Oxford Economics
Switzerland’s exports and imports value was converted from 2015 Swiss francs to 2015 euros. France’s exports and imports value was converted from 2014 euros to 2015 euros using the European Central Bank’s reported inflation rate of 0.03%.
 

CHEMICALS

• Inland waterway transportation is likely to remain in a strong position for the transport of chemicals, as other modes of transport are generally not considered viable, with the exception of pipelines. The chemical industry supplies clients from many economic sectors, especially in agriculture (fertilizers), plastics, automotive, construction, and paper and pulp industries. Moreover, the worldwide trend towards reindustrialisation and friendshoring is planned to be encouraged by the European Commission’s Green Deal Industrial Plan, which should ensure consistent outputs for the chemicals industry.
• The transport of chemicals is a growth market in IWT. This is confirmed by the development of chemical production in Europe. It can be expected that the transport of chemicals on inland waterways will grow in line with the growing production of chemicals. Moreover, the chemical industry is estimated to support more than 75% of all emission reduction technologies needed to reach the 2050 net-zero goals, which will likely drive demand and production in the coming decades.⁸⁴
• In Germany and France, real gross output of chemical production is expected to grow by +25% between 2023 and 2050. A growth rate of +42% is foreseen for the Netherlands and of +17% for Belgium. For Switzerland, a decrease of -6% is foreseen.

 

FIGURE 20: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF CHEMICALS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• Bulgaria, currently the biggest chemicals producer in central and eastern Europe, is expected to experience a sharp increase in its sectorial output by 2050, placing it well ahead of the other countries, with a growth rate of +80%. While the other countries are foreseen to witness similar or even greater growth rates, their production is likely to remain far behind Bulgaria’s: +34% for Austria; +76% for Hungary, +92% for Croatia, +98% for Romania, and +113% for Slovakia.

 

FIGURE 21: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF CHEMICALS IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 

CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL, SAND, STONES, GRAVEL

• Shippers believe that inland waterway transport will remain the main mode of transport for construction materials such as gravel, sands, stones and others. No major modal shift is expected, but as larger companies are being created by mergers and acquisitions, the number of smaller concrete mortar plants and smaller sand and gravel companies along small waterways is expected to diminish. As larger entities concentrate along the waterways and look for more economies of scale, the demand for smaller vessels should also decrease. The upcoming years anticipate a surge in sand and gravel availability due to dredging efforts to expand rivers, coinciding with a growing demand for materials for dike reinforcement in the face of climate risks.
• The transport demand depends strongly on the activity of the construction sector. According to the outlook of Oxford Economics, the inflation-adjusted real output in Germany will grow by +37% between 2023 and 2050. For France, the expected growth rate of real output in the construction sector is +13%, +27% in the Netherlands, +19% in Belgium and +24% in Switzerland.

 

FIGURE 22: REAL GROSS OUTPUT IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• The construction sector is expected to grow by +56% in Bulgaria, +36% in Croatia, +54% in Hungary, +44% in Romania, and +42% in Slovakia between 2023 and 2050. Austria’s construction sector, currently the biggest in central and eastern Europe, is forecast to catch up and be followed closely by Romania’s, with respective growth rates of +29% and +44% in the same time frame.

 

FIGURE 23: REAL GROSS OUTPUT IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS AND COKING COAL

• As countries progress through their energy transition, the demand for oil products is however expected to continue its current downward trend, leading to a decline in its transport through inland waterways. Even though there are financial and technical barriers to the development of carbon neutral propulsion technologies, it is assumed that oil products will gradually be phased out from the propulsion mix in the next two decades. Data from the port of Antwerp shows that mineral oil products volumes have been declining continuously since 2013, while the volume of transported chemicals has risen greatly.
• For the production of petroleum products (liquid fuels, heating oil) and coking coal or coke, a decrease is foreseen until 2050. This is explained by the gradual transition to alternative energy sources in the transport sector which is expected to lead to a decrease in the demand for petroleum products (refined liquid fuels). Concerning coking coal, a transition towards carbon free steel production is likely, which is also expected to lead to a decrease in the demand for coking coal in the future.
• For Germany, the outlook shows a decrease in the production of both products together of -37% until 2050. For France, a decrease of -49% is foreseen, and a decline of -47% for the Netherlands and for Belgium. Switzerland has a very low production level of petroleum products, which is the reason for rather high imports via the Rhine.

 

FIGURE 24: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF COKE AND REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• A similar outlook is foreseen in eastern Europe and Austria, with a decline in petroleum products and coke production: -2% in Romania, -8% in Slovakia, -26% in Hungary, and -29% in Austria. The only country where these sectors are expected to grow by 2050 is Bulgaria, with a +17% growth rate.

 

FIGURE 25: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF COKE AND REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 

STEEL AND IRON ORE

• As a circular economy is expected to play a more important role in the future, Dutch shipping companies have communicated strong opinions on higher metals recycling rates and a subsequent decline in steel demand and production across western Europe. This could cause a decline in the transportation of steel, but also iron ore, as it will likely be replaced by recycled steel and less emission intensive production technologies. However, the demand for high quality steel is increasing in developing countries, which could make steel remain an important input in European industry.
• In cases where steel production is located along inland waterways, a high waterborne transport of iron ore, coking coal and steel products is observed. Germany is the largest steel producing country in Europe and the Rhine is an important transport route for iron ore and steel products.
• Between 2023 and 2045, the outlook for German steel production points to a slight decline by -6%. For France, an increase of +22% is foreseen but based on a much lower absolute level of steel production. For the transport of iron ore and steel on inland waterways, the Belgian, French and German steel production is of high relevance as the steel industry in these countries is often located along inland waterways. This is not the case for Dutch and Swiss steel industry.

 

FIGURE 26: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF IRON AND STEEL IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• Austria is expected to remain an important player in the steel sector along the Danube, with an +11% growth rate between 2023 and 2050. Romania’s steel production, after two sharp drops in the early 2000s and in 2020, is forecast to recover by 2050, growing by +68%. The forecasts from Oxford Economics point to high growth rates across central and eastern Europe: +47% for Hungary, +67% for Croatia, +47% for Bulgaria, and +44% for Slovakia.

 

FIGURE 27: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF IRON AND STEEL IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics