• The overall trend of all Rhine ports’ cargo turnover was slightly negative between July 2024 and August 2025. A short low water period occurred in April 2025 which was mainly confined to the Upper Rhine region and had a minor impact on cargo turnover.
• After having remained at a multiannual average level in the first quarter of 2025, freight rates experienced an increase in the second quarter which was caused by a tendency towards low waters on the Rhine.
• Oil prices and fuel prices followed a downward trend in the first half of 2025. Fuel prices in inland waterway transport (IWT) are foreseen to decrease further in the second half of 2025 and in 2026, due to an expected decrease in oil prices.
WATERSIDE GOODS HANDLING IN MAIN RHINE PORTS
- Between July 2024 and August 2025, the overall trend for cargo turnover in all Rhine ports was marginally negative. The three largest inland ports on the Rhine (Duisburg, Cologne, Neuss) are all located on the Lower Rhine. On the ranks four to ten, only Upper Rhine ports are found, with the ports of Karlsruhe, Strasbourg and Mannheim being the largest Upper Rhine ports. Between January 2020 and August 2025 (time period of the graph), a major decrease in the waterside cargo traffic occurred in the summer of 2022 (low water period). The short low-water period in April 2025 is not very visible in the graph, as it was mainly confined to the Upper Rhine region and only had a minor impact on cargo turnover.
FIGURE 1: MONTHLY WATERSIDE GOODS HANDLING IN RHINE PORTS (IN MILLION TONNES)
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Sources: CCNR analysis based on data provided by the ports and Destatis.
* Rhine ports mentioned individually are those with an annual waterside cargo turnover of at least three million tonnes. Ports with lower volumes are grouped and analysed jointly: ports with annual waterside cargo turnover between one and three million tonnes, and ports with annual turnover below one million tonnes. Data on German ports are based on the geographical approach, which means that all cargo turnover within a city is taken into account, and not only the cargo handled in a specific port. For French and Swiss Rhine ports, only the cargo traffic of the main ports is counted.
FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION13
- A freight rate index that is entirely linked to Rhine navigation is the spot market index based on liquid cargo transport between the ARA region14 and several destinations along the Rhine. The index is based on surveys of IWT companies which are carried out by the Dutch market research company Insights Global.
- This freight rate index for liquid cargo shows strong variations which can be explained above all by the fluctuations of water levels, and to a lesser extent by the relationship between demand and supply on the liquid cargo market. In the first quarter of 2025, freight rates remained on a multiannual average level. In the second quarter of 2025, freight rates experienced an increase which was caused by a tendency towards low waters (see chapter 1). The trend of the index for the Upper, Middle and Lower Rhine is largely the same although the absolute value of the freight rate is higher, the further away from the ARA region the destination is located. Freight rate increases during low water periods only partially offset higher operational costs and reduced payloads, especially for vessels operating under long-term contracts.
- A second freight rate index is based on data collected by the statistical office of the Netherlands. Statistics Netherlands (CBS) collects data from a panel of Dutch IWT companies. The regional scope of this index is slightly different from the Insights Global index, as it contains not only the Rhine, but also other sailing areas of Dutch IWT companies in Europe. In order to collect the data, CBS carries out surveys twice per quarter. The index covers the following submarkets of the IWT sector: dry cargo, liquid cargo, container transport.
- For dry cargo, two different sub-indices are available: a spot market index and an index based on contract prices. The spot market index has a higher volatility. In 2024 and 2025 it followed a slight upward trend, while the dry cargo contract price sub-index mainly stagnated.
- For the calculation of the liquid cargo index and the container index, both spot market and contract market services are observed.15 This explains their lower volatility when compared with the CBS dry cargo spot market index or the Insights Global liquid cargo index based only on spot market data. The CBS liquid cargo index was on a slight downward trend until the first quarter of 2025. In the second quarter of 2025, it rose slightly due to the tendency towards low waters, but to a lesser degree than the Insights Global index. The container index stagnated in the first half of 2025.
FIGURE 2: SPOT MARKET FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION FOR THE TRANSPORT OF GASOIL FROM THE ARA REGION TO RHINE DESTINATIONS (INDEX 2021 = 100) *
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Sources: CCNR calculation based on Insights Global
* Insights Global collects spot market freight rates (in euro per tonne) for ARA-Rhine trade of liquid bulk. The CCNR transforms these values into an index with base year 2021.
ARA region = region of Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp
Lower Rhine: Duisburg, Cologne. Upper Rhine: Karlsruhe, Basel. Main: Frankfurt/Main
FIGURE 3: DEVELOPMENT OF FREIGHT RATES FOR INLAND SHIPPING COMPANIES IN THE NETHERLANDS BY MARKET SEGMENT (INDEX 2021 = 100, QUARTERLY DATA)
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Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS) (Binnenvaartdiensten; prijsindex), Table 85817 2021=100
FUEL COST EVOLUTION
The following text and figure were written and established before the outbreak of the new war in the Middle East.
- The historical data for fuel prices in inland waterway transport of western Europe are based on data gathered by the market research company Insights Global in the Netherlands. In the following graph, these fuel price data are compared with oil price data, and the close correlation that is observed between the two series is used for establishing an outlook on fuel prices in the near future. In the following graph, the curves for the oil price and for the fuel or gasoil price are roughly at the same level, but it should be noted that the oil price is given in Euro per barrel (= 159 litres), while the fuel prices are given in Euro per 100 litres of gasoil. In the first half of 2025, oil prices and fuel prices followed a similar downward trend.
- In the first half of the year of 2025, crude oil prices declined in response to slowing economic activity, affecting global oil demand negatively, and strong supply growth both in OPEC and in non-OPEC countries. Therefore, supplies in the global crude oil market exceeded demand, putting downward pressure on prices.16
- For the oil price and the fuel price in IWT, a further decrease in 2026 and in 2027 compared to 2025 was expected.
- The main source for this outlook is the economic research company Oxford Economics, which, in its short-run oil outlook from December 2025, was expecting that global oil production exceeds global oil demand in 2026, causing oil inventories to rise throughout 2026 and 2027, putting significant downward pressure on oil prices in 2026 and to a lesser extent in 2027. The same reasons were also put forward by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), which, in its short-term energy outlook from January 2026,17 was also expecting a decrease in oil prices in 2026 and 2027.
- According to the Oxford Economics forecast, the Brent crude oil price was expected to average 58 US dollars per barrel in 2026, a price level which was 16% below the level in 2025. For 2027, an oil price of 55 US dollars was foreseen. The EIA was expecting a similar trend (56 US dollars per barrel in 2026, 19% less than in 2025 and an average of 54 US dollars per barrel in 2027).
- Altogether, based on the Oxford Economics Brent crude oil forecast, fuel prices in IWT were expected to decrease by -16% in 2026 and by -5% in 2027. This means that for 2026 a fuel price level of around 50 Euro per 100 litres was foreseen, and 47 Euro per 100 litres for 2027, compared to 56 Euro per 100 litres in 2025.18 The decrease in fuel prices offers some relief in operational costs for inland waterway operators.
FIGURE 4: AVERAGE FUEL PRICES IN IWT AND BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICES INCLUDING FORECAST *
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Sources: Insights Global (fuel price based on gasoil bunker prices observed on a daily basis in northwest Europe), US Energy Information Administration (historical oil price), Oxford Economics (oil price forecast), European Central Bank (historical exchange rate US dollar/euro), CCNR analysis
1 barrel (bbl) = 159 litres
* The graph and the text were established and written before the outbreak of the new war in the Near East.