• In the first half year of 2024, transport demand in the two largest Rhine countries (the Netherlands and Germany) fell below the results observed one year earlier. This was notably the case for the large dry bulk segment, while the results for liquid cargo were slightly higher than the previous year.
• In most Danube countries, the first half year of 2024 saw a double-digit growth in transport demand. This was above all influenced by higher harvest results compared to 2023. Transport demand in the two largest Danube countries, Romania and Bulgaria, grew by 21.5% and 33.9% respectively.
• In passenger transport, a small increase was observed for cruise vessel traffic on the Rhine, while it decreased on the Danube. Despite the lower number of cruise vessels passing locks on the Danube, the capacity utilization of river cruise vessels was higher than in 2023, and almost as high as in the pre-pandemic year of 2019.
FREIGHT TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE
TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON BETWEEN Q1+Q2 2023 AND Q1+Q2 2024 (IN MILLION TKM) *
Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD (Switzerland, Lithuania and Republic of Moldova). For Belgium, estimation based on data from De Vlaamse Waterweg and SPW Service public de Wallonie.
* For the UK and Italy, data are not available on a quarterly basis.
For Ukraine, data are not available. The Danube Commission reported a decrease by 32.2% in terms of waterside cargo handled in Ukrainian ports in Q1+Q2 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.
TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES
FIGURE 1a: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERORMANCE IN MAIN WESTERN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TKM, QUARTERLY DATA OF TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY)
Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave] and own calculation for Belgium, based on data from De Vlaamse Waterweg and SPW Service public de Wallonie
Due to a structural break in the data from the Belgian statistical office between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018, data for Belgium from this quarter onwards were recalculated. This was done by applying the rates of change present in the data from the Flemish and the Wallonian waterway administrations.1
FIGURE 1b: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MAIN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TKM, QUARTERLY DATA OF TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY)
Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave]
DRY BULK, LIQUID BULK AND CONTAINER TRANSPORT IN MAIN IWT COUNTRIES AND REGIONS IN THE FIRST HALF YEAR *
FIGURE 2: DRY CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)
FIGURE 3: LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)
FIGURE 4: CONTAINER TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)
Sources: Destatis, Rijkswaterstaat, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, De Vlaamse Waterweg, SPW Service public de Wallonie, Voies navigables de France, Romanian Institute of Statistics.
Notes: for Belgium-Wallonia and France, quarterly container statistics in tonnes are not available. The product group “machines/other goods” was assumed to consist mainly of container transport. The data include total IWT on the territory of the country/region. In earlier reports, only the volumes transported on the Traditional Rhine, namely the Rhine from Basel to the German-Dutch border, were communicated. From now onwards, it will become possible to report on transport volumes on the entire Rhine from Basel to the North Sea (including the link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link). When calculating the total volume of goods transported on the entire Rhine, all steps were taken to avoid double counting. For further information see the methodological annex of this report.
RHINE AND DANUBE NAVIGATION
- Transport performance on the entire Rhine amounted to 31,092 billion TKM in the first six months of 2024. This represented a decrease of -2.6%. On the Danube, transport performance reached 13,893 billion TKM in (Q1+Q2) 2024, representing an increase of +18.4% compared to the first half year 2023.
- Regarding transport volume measured in tonnes, freight transport on the entire Rhine (from Basel to the North Sea) amounted to 143.1 million tonnes in the first half year 2024, compared to 145.4 million tonnes in the same period of the previous year. This represented a decrease of -1.5%. The main reason for this decline was the reduction of dry bulk transport by -7.8%, reaching 63.3 million tonnes. Liquid bulk, on the other hand, increased its transport volume by +5.4%, reaching a volume of 55.6 million tonnes. Container transport experienced a small decline of -1.3%, resulting in a transport demand of 14.6 million tonnes. This can be explained by strong sideways fluctuations in container traffic in European ports, even though, overall, container throughput in European ports seemed to be on a recovery path in the 1st half of 2024.2
- As table 1 shows, not all of the goods segments of dry bulk transport experienced a decline. Positive examples for a growing transport demand can be found for agribulk and foodstuff (+2.7%) as well as for iron ore (+1.8%). However, the sharp decline in sand, stones, building materials and coal caused a downward trend in the entire dry bulk goods segment.
- The continuing decline in the transport of coal, sand, stones and building materials had a negative impact on the overall development of dry bulk. While coal transport still followed an upward trend in 2022, mainly due to the high coal demand during the energy crisis, this trend disappeared in 2023 and 2024. Accordingly, the significant downward trend in coal transport, which had already begun in 2013, continued. It had a strong impact on overall development of dry bulk. The main reason for the declining coal transport is the energy transition in Germany.
- Of relevance for the transport of sand, stones and building material is the activity in the construction sector. This sector suffered from disruptions and delays in the supply chain as well as from a shortage of labour force. Another key factor influencing construction activity and thus transport demand for sand, stones and building materials was the lower construction activity in the Netherlands due to the nitrogen crisis. Policies were taken to limit nitrogen emissions by postponing construction activity.
- In the largest goods segment, mineral oil products, demand for transport increased slightly (by +3.5%) in the first half of 2024. The fact that oil prices followed a downward trend in the first half of 2024 is likely to have played a role here. The economic conditions in this goods segment were therefore better than in most other segments. The downward trend in chemical products also came to an end due to falling prices for chemical raw materials.
- While taking into consideration only the traditional Rhine,3 during the first semester of 2024, it can be observed that cargo transport amounted to 74.8 million tonnes, compared to 77.4 million tonnes in the first semester 2023. This represents a decrease by -3.4%.
- The trends per goods segment for the traditional Rhine are the same as for the entire Rhine – a growing transport demand for iron ore, mineral oil products,4 chemicals and grain, and a decreasing transport demand for coal and for sands, stones and gravel.
- When it comes to waterside goods handling in Rhine ports, German, French and Swiss Rhine ports data can be studied. For the largest Upper Rhine ports in Germany,5 the volume of waterside cargo handling in the first six months of 2024 (Q1+Q2 2024) was 6.0% below the result of Q1+Q2 2023. For the largest French Rhine ports,6 the result in (Q1+Q2 2024) was 0.2% higher than one year earlier. And for the Swiss Rhine ports of Basel, waterside cargo handling was 16.9% lower than one year earlier.
- For the Danube, two determining factors for the transport market in 2024 can be highlighted.
- First, the impact of Russia’s large-scale military invasion of Ukraine, which led to the emergence of additional risks and disruptions in certain transport sectors on the Danube navigation market, low growth in steel demand and production, rising prices for energy resources and raw materials, all of which led to a partial reorientation of the market. The war also led to a partial destruction of port infrastructure in the Ukrainian Danube ports. During the first half of 2024, Russia carried out a series of attacks on Ukraine’s port infrastructure on the Danube. However, the damages that were inflicted were repaired. Hence, the port infrastructure was rebuilt and is operating at the same level of efficiency as before.
- The second determining factor was hydrology. The absence of ice phenomena ensured uninterrupted navigation during the first quarter of 2024. In addition, stable water conditions required for efficient navigation throughout the six-month period of 2024 were observed. This enabled vessels to be loaded when travelling upstream on the Middle Danube at the maximum draught of 2.5 to 2.7 metres, and downstream at a draught of 2.3 to 2.4 metres.
- These favourable water conditions were helpful for enabling positive framework conditions for the transport development on the Danube. Transport on the Middle Danube (at Mohács in southern Hungary, the border point with Croatia and Serbia) increased sharply in the first half year of 2024, by +30.3%, reaching 2.109 million tonnes. Above all, this was due to a rise in the downstream transport of grain (see figure 9).
- Not only the Middle Danube, but also the Upper Danube, saw a strong increase in goods transport. For the measurement point at the German-Austrian border (lock of Jochenstein), cargo transport in the first half year 2024 reached 1.5 million tonnes, which was 36.1% above the level of the first half year 2023. For the other measurement point at the Upper Danube, the lock of Gabčíkovo at the Slovakian-Hungarian border, cargo transport reached 2.4 million tonnes, an increase of +15.3% compared to the first half year of 2023.7 The main reason for the uptake of transport through the lock of Gabčíkovo was a rise in the upstream transport of grain, food products and fertilizers.
- For the Lower Danube, it should be mentioned that new logistics systems are being created, based on the export of Ukrainian grain via the Ukrainian, Moldavian and Romanian Danube ports. These new logistics systems are being set up as part of the Danube Solidarity Lanes EU-Ukraine initiative. They ensure primarily the export of Ukrainian grain on a large scale via Lower Danube ports, but also the import of needed goods for Ukraine.8
- Freight transport on the Danube-Black Sea Canal amounted to 10.2 million tonnes, a small decrease of -3.4% compared to the first half year 2023. However, this transport volume was still well above freight transport in earlier years (first half year of 2021: 8.4 million tonnes).
- As was the case for transport volumes, freight transport in Danube ports increased, particularly in the Upper and Middle Danube region: by +18.8% in German Danube ports, by +5.4% in Austrian Danube ports and by +23.9% in Hungarian Danube ports. In the Lower Danube region, a slight increase was registered in Romanian Danube ports (+0.4%) as well as in the Moldavian Danube port (+1.3%).9
FIGURE 5: TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE ENTIRE RHINE AND THE DANUBE PER QUARTER (IN MILLION TKM)
Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], Destatis, Rijkswaterstaat, CCNR analysis
* Entire Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the North-Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)
** Danube = TKM in all Danube countries but without Ukraine
Rhine
TABLE 1: FREIGHT TRANSPORT ON THE ENTIRE RHINE IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2021, 2022, 2023 AND 2024, BY MAIN FREIGHT SEGMENTS *
| First half year 2021 in mio t | First half year 2022 in mio. t | First half year 2023 in mio. t | First half year 2024 in mio.t | Rate of change 2024/2023 in % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total transport | 159.4 | 155.3 | 145.4 | 143.1 | -1.5 |
| Mineral oil products | 33.2 | 30.7 | 31.7 | 32.8 | +3.5 |
| Chemical products | 25.4 | 26.2 | 22.9 | 24.8 | +8.3 |
| Sand, stones, gravel, building materials | 28.5 | 26.2 | 25.7 | 23.3 | -9.4 |
| Container | 19.1 | 17.6 | 14.8 | 14.6 | -1.3 |
| Agribulk and foodstuff | 14.6 | 14.8 | 13.3 | 13.6 | +2.7 |
| Iron ore | 11.6 | 11.0 | 11.3 | 11.5 | +1.8 |
| Solid fuel (Coal) | 11.5 | 14.4 | 11.8 | 8.6 | -27.0 |
| Metals and metal products | 7.8 | 8.3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | -0.1 |
Sources: Destatis, Rijkswaterstaat, CCNR analysis
* The sum of the main freight segments does not correspond to total transport as only the major freight segments were chosen.
Entire Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the North-Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)
FIGURES 6 AND 7: TRADITIONAL RHINE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS * (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR Q1-Q2 OF 2023 AND 2024)
Sources: CCNR analysis based on Destatis – statistics for the entire Rhine according to upstream or downstream direction not available
* Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the German-Dutch border
Danube
FIGURES 8 AND 9: MIDDLE DANUBE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR THE MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR Q1-Q2 2023 AND 2024)
Source: Danube Commission market observation report
PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE
- Passenger transport was highly impacted by the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 and only began to recover in the second semester of 2021. This recovery process has continued ever since. In 2024, passenger transport seems to have fully recovered and is back on the positive trend it had enjoyed before the Covid-19 crisis.
- The Danube, as well as the Rhine and its Moselle, Main, Neckar and Saar affluents, are important operating areas for river cruises in Europe, alongside the Seine, Rhône and Douro. The Rhine and Danube are the most important rivers for cruising. A statistical measurement point for cruise vessels on the Rhine is the lock of Iffezheim on the Upper Rhine, which is representative for Rhine river cruises.
- With 1,131 cruise vessels having passed through the lock of Iffezheim in the first half year 2024, an increase of +1.3% was observed compared to the first half year of 2023 (1,117 cruise vessels).
- The figure of the first half year 2024 was also higher than the figure for the same period in 2019 (by +4.9%). The year 2019 is representative of the pre-pandemic era.
- However, no data on the number of passengers are available for this lock, which makes it impossible to evaluate the degree of capacity utilisation of river cruise vessels that pass through it.
- For the Danube, data are available for the lock of Jochenstein near Passau. Alongside Vienna and Budapest, Passau is an important town where cruise vessels both start and finish their journey.
- 1,139 river cruise vessels passed through the lock of Jochenstein between January and June 2024 (1,332 during the same period in 2023), which illustrates a decline in demand (-14.5%) for passenger transport on the Upper Danube, as illustrated in figure 11. The number of passengers amounted to 149,244, a decrease of -9.8%.
- In the first half of 2024, 149,244 passengers transited through the lock of Jochenstein, compared to 165,407 in the first half year 2023. At Gabčíkovo (border point between Slovakia and Hungary), 208,700 passengers were registered compared to the first half year 2023, when the number had been 290,900 passengers. Both of these measurement points at the Upper Danube indicate river cruises between Passau, Vienna, Bratislava and Budapest or cruises between Vienna, Bratislava and Budapest. These cruises with a duration of five, seven or eight days show higher figures than the measurement point at the Middle Danube (Mohács) which is representative of Danube cruises in the direction of the Lower Danube (with a duration of 14, 15 or 16 days). For this long voyage, only 4,508 passengers were registered in the first half year 2024.
- It is important to note that the utilization rate of the river cruise vessels passing through the locks is also a key indicator when assessing the recovery of the river cruise sector. For the first half-year 2024, the data for the Danube at Jochenstein point to better utilisation rates of cruise vessels compared to the same period in 2023 (75.2% in 2024 compared to 52.1% in 2023). Furthermore, it is important to highlight that capacity utilization was in the range of the pre-pandemic levels for the first time since the pandemic (first half year 2019: 76.0%).
FIGURE 10: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THE LOCK OF IFFEZHEIM ON THE UPPER RHINE IN THE FIRST HALF YEAR PER MONTH
Source: German Waterways and Shipping Administration
FIGURE 11: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THROUGH THE LOCK OF JOCHENSTEIN NEAR PASSAU ON THE UPPER DANUBE IN THE FIRST HALF YEAR PER MONTH
Source: German Waterways and Shipping Administration
TABLE 2: NUMBER OF PASSENGERS WITHIN RIVER CRUISES ON THE DANUBE PER HALF YEAR
| Measurement point | Number of passengers first half year 2023 | Number of passengers first half year 2024 | Rate of change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jochenstein (Upper Danube) | 165,407 | 149,244 | -9.8% |
| Gabcikovo (Upper Danube) | 290,900 | 208,700 | -28.3% |
| Mohacs (Middle Danube) | 17,030 | 4,508 | -73.5% |
Sources: Danube Commission, German Waterways and Shipping Administration
TABLE 3: CAPACITY UTILIZATION* OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS ON THE UPPER DANUBE**
| 1st half year | Capacity utilization |
|---|---|
| 2019 | 76.0% |
| 2020 | 28.0% |
| 2021 | 33.8% |
| 2022 | 61.0% |
| 2023 | 52.1% |
| 2024 | 75.2% |
Sources: German Waterways and Shipping Administration and CCNR analysis
* Number of passengers divided by capacity (passenger places) of cruise vessels passing through the lock
** At the lock of Jochenstein (German-Austrian border)