• The year 2020 offered rather positive navigation conditions on the Rhine. At Kaub (Middle Rhine), the available draught was at least 1.90 m or higher on 87.3% of all days per year, compared to 98.3% in 2019 and only 63.5% in 2018.
• Fuel prices (gasoil/diesel) fell by 32 % between Q1 2020 and Q2 2020. Between Q2 and Q3 they rose again (by 17%) but dropped by 3 % between Q3 and Q4.
• For 2021, fuel prices are expected to experience a limited increase by 5-7%, based on oil price forecasts.

 
 

IMPACT OF WATER LEVEL CONDITIONS

• The Waterway and Shipping Administration endeavours to achieve a minimum navigation channel depth for each gauge station, also under critical low water conditions. This minimum depth is represented by the vertical distance below a critical low water level. The critical low water level is known as equivalent water level. It is normally exceeded on at least 95% of all days per year. The following table shows these parameters, which are specific for each gauge station, for Kaub (Middle Rhine) and Duisburg-Ruhrort (Lower Rhine).

 

TABLE 1: NAVIGATIONAL PARAMETERS FOR IMPORTANT RHINE GAUGE STATIONS

Gauge station	Area	Equivalent water level (EWL)	Minimum navigation channel depth under the EWL	Under keel clearance
Duisburg-Ruhrort	Lower Rhine	233 cm	280 cm	27 cm
Kaub	Middle Rhine	78 cm	190 cm	32 cm


Source: German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration
 
• The available draught for a vessel at a certain gauge station is calculated with the formula (Regarding the formula, see: SVS Aktuell, Dec. 2018/Jan. 2019, pages 7 and 8, available at: http://www.svs-ch.ch/sites/default/files/svs-aktuell/winter_2018.pdf):
  possible or available draught = minimum navigation channel depth + (actual water level – equivalent water level) – under keel clearance.
• If the actual water level equals the equivalent water level (indicating that the water level is very low), the difference (actual water level – equivalent water level) will be zero. In this case, the possible draught of a vessel should still be equal to the minimum channel depth minus the under-keel clearance (see formula and drawing).

 

FIGURE 1: ACTUAL WATER LEVEL, ACTUAL DRAUGHT, EQUIVALENT WATER LEVEL, MINIMUM NAVIGATION CHANNEL DEPTH AND POSSIBLE OR AVAILABLE DRAUGHT AT KAUB/ MIDDLE RHIN *


Source: CCNR based on German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG, 2015)
* The distances in this drawing are not at scale.
In this illustration, the date chosen to determine the available or possible draught is 3 September 2020, when the actual water level was 239 cm on average).
 

• For the following figures, daily water level data for Kaub and Ruhrort were collected in order to verify to which extent the minimum navigation channel depth was actually achieved (at which percentage of all days per year).

 

FIGURE 2: AVAILABILITY OF DRAUGHT VALUES FOR THE MIDDLE RHINE AT KAUB (IN %)


Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration, provided by the German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG).
 
• The minimum navigation channel depth of 1.90 m was achieved at Kaub:
  – In 2018: on 63.5% of all days per year
  – In 2019: on 98.3% of all days per year
  – In 2020: on 87.3% of all days per year
• The fact that the ‘achievement rate’ in 2018 and 2020 was lower than the target rate of 95% reflects the occurrence of strong low water periods in both years.
• Duisburg-Ruhrort at the Lower Rhine offers higher water levels, channel depths and possible draughts in general, due to different morphological characteristics of the Rhine at this point. This is reflected by a higher target depth (2.80 m), but it was only in 2019 that this target could be reached at a rate of at least 95%.

 

FIGURE 3: AVAILABILITY OF DRAUGHT VALUES FOR THE LOWER RHINE AT DUISBURG-RUHRORT (IN %)


Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration, provided by the German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG).
 
• Equivalent calculations can be carried out for the Danube. Two gauge stations on the Upper Danube in Austria are considered: Kienstock (122 km east of Linz and 90 km west of Vienna) and Wildungsmauer (250 km east of Linz and 38 km east of Vienna). The target depth for both stations is 2.50 m. The results of the data analysis show that Kienstock offered better navigational conditions than Wildungsmauer in 2018-2020.

 

TABLE 2: NAVIGATIONAL PARAMETERS FOR IMPORTANT UPPER DANUBE GAUGE STATIONS

Gauge station	Area	Equivalent water level (EWL)	Minimum navigation channel depth under the EWL	Under keel clearance
Kienstock	Upper Danube	164 cm	250 cm	40 cm
Wildungsmauer	Upper Danube	162 cm	250 cm	40 cm


Source: Via Donau and Federal State of Lower Austria
 

FIGURE 4: AVAILABILITY OF DRAUGHT VALUES FOR THE UPPER DANUBE AT KIENSTOCK (IN %)


 

FIGURE 5: AVAILABILITY OF DRAUGHT VALUES FOR THE UPPER DANUBE AT WILDUNGSMAUER (IN %)


Source: CCNR calculation based on data from the Federal State of Lower Austria (https://www.noel.gv.at/wasserstand/#/de/Messstellen/Map/Wasserstand)
 
 

FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION

• Until October, gasoil and gasoline spot market freight rates on the Rhine remained rather low. In particular, full tanks and limited downstream refining activities – especially for motor fuels due to “lockdowns” – caused a significant drop of transport activity. Towards November and December 2020, higher seasonal demand for liquid cargo pushed freight rates up and this was supported by rapidly falling water levels.
• In October, November and December 2020, gasoil freight rates were much lower than in the same months one year earlier. For the Lower Rhine, the average difference in Q4 2020 compared to Q4 2019 was -31%, and for the Upper Rhine even -33% and -29% for the Main. The percentage differences for gasoline were of the same order (-29%, -32%, -28%) (The figure for gasoline freight rates is not shown in the report, as it appears very similar to the graph for gasoil freight rates).

 

FIGURE 6: FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION FOR GASOIL FROM THE ARA REGION TO RHINE DESTINATIONS (INDEX 2015 = 100)


Source: CCNR calculation based on PJK International
* PJK collects freight rates (in Euro per tonne) for ARA-Rhine trade of liquid bulk. The CCNR transforms these values into an index with base year 2015. Lower Rhine: Duisburg, Cologne. Upper Rhine: Karlsruhe, Basel. Main: Frankfurt/M.
 
• While the freight rates presented in the above figure relate to spot market rates for ARA-Rhine traffic, the IWT market also experiences more long-term transport prices, which are quite frequently observed in the market segments of chemicals and container transport. Such data are collected by the statistical office of the Netherlands (CBS) from a panel of Dutch IWT companies, together with spot market rates. The prices of established routes within the panel are observed twice a quarter and include fuel and low water surcharges.
• Regarding the overall development of these data, a smaller ‘low water elasticity’ – or reactivity of transport prices toward low waters – is present (This can be verified by taking quarterly averages of the monthly ARA-Rhine index and comparing them with the quarterly index data from CBS. The average of the spot market rates for the ARA-Rhine index was around 300 in Q4 2018, while the highest value in the CBS index in this quarter was around 200). This is explained by the fact that the sailing regions of the barging companies in this CBS panel contain also regions other than the Rhine itself. In parts of the Netherlands, water level fluctuations are less pronounced than on the Rhine in Germany.

 

FIGURE 7: FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION PER QUARTER FOR DUTCH IWT COMPANIES ACCORDING TO MARKET SEGMENT (INDEX 2015 = 100)


Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (Binnenvaartdiensten; prijsindex)
 
• For Q3 2020, the data show a decline of 12% of the overall index, compared to Q3 2019. The decrease was strongest for liquid bulk (-18%), although this was still a smaller decrease than the one observed for ARA-Rhine trade (see figures above). A different regional scope of the CBS index, as explained above, can be regarded as the underlaying cause. In Q1 2020 and Q2 2020, the drop of the liquid bulk index was only 7%.
• In the first half year 2020, the strongest fall of the index can be observed for dry bulk spot market freight rates. The drop was thus -17% in Q1 2020 and -14% in Q2 2020 (compared to Q1 2019 and Q2 2019 respectively). In Q3 2020, dry bulk spot market rates fell by 10%.

 
 

COST EVOLUTION

FUEL COSTS
• Fuel costs are analysed on the basis of gasoil/diesel prices published by the energy price monitoring system of the Belgian Ministry of Economic Affairs (The data are received from ITB in Belgium. The prices are maximum prices and valid for a purchase volume of at least 2.000 litres of gasoil.). A comparison with oil prices reveals a very close correlation which serves as a basis for an outlook on fuel prices.
• In the course of 2020, positive news about vaccines and their approaching availability brought oil prices back to higher levels. In December 2020, the Brent Spot market price once more reached a level of 50 US-dollars per barrel (= 41.1 euro, as the exchange rate USD/EUR was 1.217).

 

FIGURE 8: AVERAGE FUEL PRICES ACCORDING TO THE BELGIAN MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS AND BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICES INCLUDING FORECAST *


Sources: ITB and SPF Economie (fuel price). US Energy Information Administration (oil price). Federal Reserve Economic Data (historical exchange rate US-dollar/euro). 1 barrel (bbl) = 159 litres
* IMF = International Monetary Fund; EIA = US Energy Information Administration. The forecast assumes a nominal exchange rate of 1.22 US-$ per euro throughout 2021 and 2022.
 

• Fuel prices in European IWT are not only influenced by oil prices but also by the exchange rate between US-dollar and euro. The depreciation of the US-dollar towards the euro, which started in March 2020, continued throughout the year 2020. This dampened fuel prices in European IWT (In December 2020, the exchange rate was 1.217 US-dollar per euro, compared to 1.126 US-dollar per euro in June 2020, and 1.110 US-dollar per euro in January 2020).
• Arguments for a further depreciation of the dollar are put forward by some organisations, which see the US twin deficits as a striking argument for a further devaluation of the dollar (QCAM Monthly. 2021. Available at: (https://q-cam.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/QCAM-MONTHLY-February-2021.pdf) Last consulted 5.02.2021). Other observers (including OECD) put forward the very small interest differential between the two currency zones and therefore foresee a constant exchange rate in 2021 and 2022 (Raiffeisen Währungsupdate 2021. Available at: https://www.raiffeisen.ch/content/dam/www/rch/pdf/publikationen/waehrungsupdate/de/2021/waehrungsupdate-01-2021.pdf Last consulted 5.02.2021)(OECD. Nominal exchange rates against US dollar, average of daily rates. 2021. Available at: https://stats.oecd.org/Index.aspx?QueryId=51653# Last consulted 5.02.2021). For the present forecast, an exchange rate USD/EUR of 1.22 is assumed for the forecast horizon (2021 and 2022).
• Regarding oil prices, in its latest short-term outlook from January 2021, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices to average around 52.7 US-dollars per barrel in 2021, and around 53.4 US-dollars per barrel in 2022, compared with an average of 41.8 US-dollars in 2020 (Source: https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/. These values are transformed to values in euro and depicted in the figure. The assumed exchange rate for this transformation is 1.22 US-dollar per euro). The IMF oil price outlook points to similar values.
• Based on the data and the reasoning explained, an increase in fuel costs of 7.2% is expected for 2021. This is slightly higher than the forecast within the Panteia cost monitoring (+4.7% in 2021).

 
CAPITAL COSTS

• Capital costs are dependent upon interest rates for long-term loans and the insured values of vessels. Interest rates decreased in 2020, as – in the wake of the economic crisis in the last years – short-term interest rates were consequently cut by the European Central Bank. In the medium and long term, lower short-term interest rates are passed on to lower long-term interest rates.
• The development of interest rates in the recently published Panteia cost report (Source: Panteia (2021), Kostenontwikkeling binnenvaart 2020 en raming 2021, edited in January 2021) shows a decline over the last years. For 2021, capital costs are expected to decrease further, as interest rates will be kept very low, and insurance values of ships will decrease due to the crisis in the inland waterway transport sector. It should be noted that available interest rates do not include individual risk premiums, that could be added on top of the interest rates by banks, in order to cover higher individual risks of companies.

 
LABOUR COSTS

• An analysis of labour costs was carried out in the Panteia cost report, published in January 2021. Due to a deviation of actual wages from official wages, interviews amongst IWT companies were necessary. According to these interviews, labour costs increased in 2020 by 2.8% compared to 2019. Other sources used for the labour costs assessment were official salary tables published by the ‘Centraal Bureau voor de Rijn- en Binnenvaart’ (CBRB) in the Netherlands. For 2021, labour costs are assumed to increase further, as the Covid-19 crisis leads to higher burdens for manning vessels.

 
INSURANCE COSTS

• In 2020, insurance companies have increased insurance premiums by 3.3%. As the value of the insured vessels dropped by 0.4%, insurance costs increased by 2.9%. For 2021, insurance premiums are expected to continue their increase by 2.9%. A limited drop in the values of vessels by 0.4% will again lead to higher insurance costs for companies. The sources of these estimations are consultations with insurance companies and barging companies.

 
REPAIR AND MAINTENANCE COSTS

• On the basis of interviews with a panel of inland barging entrepreneurs, it is estimated that these types of costs increased in 2020 by 2.3% and will increase in 2021 by 2.0%.

 

TABLE 3: DEVELOPMENT OF COSTS IN INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT (2020/2019) AND OUTLOOK FOR 2021

Cost component	Index 2020 (2019=100)	Index 2021 (2020=100)
Labour costs	102.8	102.3
Capital costs
- interest rates	92.3	96.0
- insured value of vessel	99.6	99.6
Fuel costs	83.3	104.7
Repair and maintenance	102.3	102.0
Insurance costs	102.9	102.4
Other costs	101.2	101.3


Source: Panteia (2021)
 
SHARE OF LABOUR COSTS IN TOTAL COSTS AND IN TURNOVER
• According to data from the statistical office of the Netherlands (CBS), the share of personnel costs within total costs in the Dutch IWT sector (freight and passenger transport) was 18.0% in 2018, 21.8% in 2017, and 23.0% in 2016. In the years 2009-2015, the share was 22.0% on average.
• The share of personnel costs within net turnover was 15.3% in 2018, 18.3% in 2017 and 18.7% in 2016. In the years 2009-2015, the share was 18.8% on average.

• Transport performance (TKM) on inland waterways in the EU decreased by 8.1% in the first three quarters of 2020, compared to the same period in 2019.
• In the two largest IWT countries the decrease was -11.9% (Germany) and -6.8% (the Netherlands). In Danube countries, transport performance was 9% lower.
• Passenger transport (river cruises) recorded a reduction of passengers by 90-95%.

 
 

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON BETWEEN Q1-Q3 2019 AND Q1-Q3 2020 (IN MILLION TKM)


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD (Switzerland)
 

FIGURE 1: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT (IWT) PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE BY REGION (IN MILLION TKM)


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], Destatis
* Danube = TKM in all Danube countries
 
• Cargo related to steel production accounts for 25% of total Rhine transport. The decrease of steel production (Steel production in Germany amounted to 43.3 mio. tonnes in 2017, 42.4 million tonnes in 2018, 39.6 mio. tonnes in 2019 and 36.0 mio. tonnes in 2020. Source: World Steel Association and German ‘Wirtschaftsvereinigung Stahl’) due to a slowdown of the world economy in 2018-2019 and the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 resulted in less iron ore, coking coal and metal transport. This produces a considerable ‘downward momentum’ for the trend on the Rhine as well as on Dutch and German waterways. Coal that is used for energy generation (steam coal) accounts for 7%. By 2029, almost the entirety of steam coal transport will be phased out, due to the closure of coal fired power plants in Germany. For the Danube, a growth-orientated trend can be observed, which rests on a growing transport activity for agricultural products.

 
RHINE AND AFFLUENTS

FIGURES 2 AND 3: RHINE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2019 AND 2020)




Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis
 
• Cargo transport on the traditional Rhine was 11% lower in the first nine months of 2020, compared to the same period in 2019. Within upstream transport, the figures show a decrease in the two-digit range for iron ore (-21%) and chemicals (-14%). Losses in both segments were due to a reduction in industry production. The upstream transport of petroleum products fell by 12% due to lockdowns and the related drop in demand for liquid fuels (gasoline, gasoil, kerosene, etc.). The reduction in coal transport (-30%) was partly caused by less steel production and partly by energy transition.
• Downstream transport of sands, stones, gravel and building materials was reduced by 10%. Grain transport, with its relatively small share in total Rhine transport, increased its volume by 3%.

 

FIGURE 4: TRANSPORT VOLUME ON RHINE AFFLUENTS


Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis
 
• Cargo transport on the Main amounted to 11.7 million tonnes in Q1-Q3 2020 (-9% compared to Q1-Q3 2019). The overall trend on the Main fluctuates at around 4 million tonnes of cargo per quarter. Liquid cargo, foodstuffs, sands, stones and gravel are core segments in Main navigation.
• The phasing out of coal weighs heavily on Moselle traffic and is the main reason for a decreasing trend.

 
DANUBE

• Between the Rhine and Danube, parallels emerge with respect to the development of industrial and non-industrial goods. Iron ore (-25%), coal (-30%) and metals (-17%) suffered with less production of steel.
• For all cargo related to the agricultural sector, an increase was observed. The strength of this increase was most clearly visible for grain, where transport volumes more than tripled, and for food products and foodstuffs, where volumes more than doubled. Fertilizers registered more upstream (+17%) as well as more downstream (+50%) transport.
• These data refer to the measurement point of Mohacs on the Middle Danube in southern Hungary, near the border with Croatia and Serbia. In total, 4.648 million tonnes of cargo crossed this border point in the first nine months of 2020. This was an increase of 7% compared to the same time period in 2019.

 

FIGURES 5 AND 6: MIDDLE DANUBE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR THE MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF 2020 AND 2019)*




Source: Danube Commission Market Observation report
* On the Middle Danube at Mohacs
 
• Cargo transport on the Upper Danube in Germany, Austria and Slovakia decreased by 27% at the Austrian-German border and by 15% at the Slovakian-Hungarian border. The Lower Danube region (Romania, Bulgaria), which is presented by figures for the Danube-Black Sea Canal, lost only 5% in the first nine months. The Danube-Black Sea-Canal is the waterway connection between the port of Constanţa and the Black Sea.

 

FIGURE 7: CARGO TRANSPORT ON THE DANUBE PER RIVER STRETCH *


Source: Danube Commission Market Observation reports
* DE/AT = German-Austrian border; SK/HU = Slovakian-Hungarian border; HU/CRO/SRB = border between Hungary. Croatia and Serbia (Mohacs)

 
 

PASSENGER TRANSPORT

• Passenger transport on cruise ships on the Danube (At the time of writing, quarterly data on passenger transport were only available for the Danube) had reached record levels in 2019 but was interrupted completely in March 2020. Only in June did isolated trips resume both on the Upper and the Middle Danube. This revival took place on a very limited basis, in compliance with the restrictions on the number of passengers per voyage.
• Passenger transport on day trip vessels – both regular liner services as well as non-scheduled excursion vessels – in the main tourist centres took place on a limited basis.

 

FIGURE 8: PASSENGER TRANSPORT (RIVER CRUISE VESSELS) ON THE UPPER DANUBE (IN 1,000 PASSENGERS) *




Source: Danube Commission Market Observation reports
* Upper Danube = lock of Gabčikovo (border between Hungary and Slovakia)
 

FIGURE 9: PASSENGER TRANSPORT (RIVER CRUISE VESSELS) ON THE MIDDLE DANUBE (IN 1,000 PASSENGERS)*




Source: Danube Commission Market Observation reports
* Middle Danube = measurement point of Mohacs in Hungary (border region with Croatia and Serbia). Figures indicate downstream traffic of passengers (in the direction of the Black Sea).

 
 

TRANSPORT VOLUME IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES

FIGURE 10: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT VOLUME IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (QUARTERLY DATA OF TRANSPORT VOLUME ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY – IN MILLION TONNES)


Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave]
Due to a lack of plausibility of Stat.Bel data from Q1 2018 onwards, the data for Belgium from this quarter onwards were recalculated. This was done by applying the rate of change that is present in the more plausible data from the Flemish waterway administration (De Vlaamse Waterweg). The series for Belgium then follows the trend for Flanders, but is located on a higher level.

 
 

DRY BULK, LIQUID BULK AND CONTAINER TRANSPORT

FIGURE 11: DRY CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)




 

FIGURE 12: LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)




 

FIGURE 13: CONTAINER TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)




Sources: Eurostat [IWW_GO_QCNAVE], Destatis. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, De Vlaamse Waterweg, SPW Service Public de Wallonie, Voies Navigables de France, Romanian Institute of Statistics
Note: for Belgium-Wallonia, infra-annual container statistics in tonnes are not available. The product group “machines/other goods” was assumed to consist mainly of container transport. The data contain total IWT on the territory of the country/region.

• Transport performance on inland waterways in the European Union amounted to 111.2 billion tonne-kilometres (TKM) in the first three quarters of 2019. Rhine countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Switzerland) reaching 91.3 billion TKM, accounted for a share of 82%, compared to 84% over the same period in 2018. Although Rhine countries’ transport performance increased by 2.5% compared to 2018, their share in EU transport performance fell slightly, in light of the stronger growth of transport performance in Danube countries.
• Transport performance in Danube countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia and Slovakia) went up by 18.4% to reach a value of 19.8 billion TKM. Their share in EU transport performance increased from 16 % to 18 %. The recovery from low water periods was one major reason for the increase, but a country-by-country analysis also reveals other influencing factors.
• On a multi-annual basis, a positive trend can be observed for Bulgaria and Romania. The positive multi-annual trend is in particular apparent for iron ores, and is confirmed by data from the World Steel Association, which shows that steel production in Romania was 20% higher in 2018 than in 2013.
• In Rhine countries, the dry cargo segment lost cargo volumes, due to the phasing out of coal in the energy sector, the weakening of automobile and steel production in western Europe, and a decrease in the transport of sands, stones, and building materials in the Netherlands. All of these evolutions are linked with energy transition and the political aim to reduce emissions. That is why inland navigation in western Europe is faced with a challenge of transforming its goods portfolio.
• A positive evolution in 2019 in the Rhine basin was the recovery of water levels from their low points in late 2018. Nevertheless, container transport on the Rhine and in Germany did not reach the levels they had seen in the first half of 2018. A macroeconomic weakening of German exports and imports and a loss of market shares can be regarded as the main reasons.
• The “focus-on” chapter presents key figures for Hungary, a middle Danube country, where iron ores, agricultural products, and metal products are the three largest goods segments. Data on cross-border traffic for Hungary show that exports to Germany and imports from Romania are the two most important export/import flows in Hungarian IWT. The exports to Germany mainly contain oil seeds, forage plants, and related materials.
• Although this market insight covers the first three quarters of 2019 and was completed in March 2020, some remarks regarding the spread of the Covid-19 virus in Europe must be made. On the one hand, inland waterway transport is necessary to maintain the provision of the economy and society with important raw materials and products, such as agricultural and food products, mineral oil products, chemicals and pharmaceuticals and consumer goods.
• On the other hand, the transport of goods is hit from the demand side. Many industries are strongly reducing their activity, with negative effects on IWT. For passenger transport, the effects will be much stronger. In mid-March, most of the river cruises were cancelled or postponed until at least May 2020.
• The Kiel Institute for the World Economy has developed two main scenarios for the impact of the crisis on the economy. A scenario with a recovery from mid-2020 onwards, and another scenario with a recovery only from the beginning of 2021 onwards. If we apply the underlying quantitative assumptions of the scenarios on the whole European inland navigation sector (goods and passenger transport together), the total financial loss due to this crisis could amount to 2.2 billion Euro in 2020 (first scenario), or to 4.4 billion Euro in 2020 (second scenario). It must be emphasized that the possible outcomes described above are scenarios, not predictions. The exact losses for the inland navigation sector are strongly dependent upon the duration of the crisis, which currently cannot be predicted.

• The “focus-on” chapter presents key figures for Hungary, a middle Danube country, where iron ores, agricultural products, and metal products are the three largest goods segments.
• Waterside ports traffic in Hungarian ports reached 6.06 million tonnes in 2019, an increase of 16.6% compared to 2018.
• Data on cross-border traffic for Hungary show that exports to Germany and imports from Romania are the two most important export/import flows in Hungarian IWT. The exports to Germany mainly consist of oil seeds, forage plants, and related materials.

 

HUNGARIAN INLAND PORTS’ WATERSIDE TRAFFIC

*In Budapest there are two ports, one is public, one is private.

TABLE 1: WATERSIDE PORTS TRAFFIC IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019 COMPARED TO (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2018

Country	Waterside transport in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019 in 1000 t	Rate of increase compared to (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2018
Romanian ports	21,724	+17.8%
Serbian ports	7,221	+28.8%
Austrian ports	5,497	+30.6%
Hungarian ports	4,785	+10.7%
Ukrainian ports	4,332	-9.0%
German ports	2,791	+9.5%
Slovakian ports	1,295	+6.2%
Moldavian ports	948	-

Source: Danube Commission (market observation report for the first nine months of 2019)
German ports are the Danube ports in Germany. For Moldavian ports, no data for the rate of change exist.

TABLE 2: WATERSIDE PORTS TRAFFIC IN HUNGARY 2017-2019 (IN TONNES)

Period	Baja National Public Port	Csepel National Public Port	Győr-Gönyű National Public Port	Ports of Dunaújváros	Ports of Komárom	Ports of Mohács	Other Hungarian inland ports	Total
2017	644,304	1,122411	167,431	841,980	237,704	225,088	2,559,926	5,798,845
2018	346,749	918,209	105,647	1,044,702	315,972	189,079	2,279,228	5,199,586
2019	505,138	1,129,625	225,420	1,390,978	262,244	266,819	2,284,087	6,064,312

Source: Hungarian Statistical Office

FIGURE 1: IWT ON THE HUNGARIAN DANUBE BY GOODS SEGMENT (IN 1000 T)

Source: Hungarian Statistical Office, https://www.ksh.hu/stadat_infra_4_6

• According to the Danube Commission, the Hungarian steel plant of Dunaújváros, near Budapest, uses barge traffic for parts of its iron ore provisions. The main Hungarian refinery is located near Budapest and belongs to the MOL Group. This group operates three of its own ports from which depots and customers in the Danube region are supplied by barge, rail and truck, while the crude oil for the refinery comes by pipeline from Russia (See: https://molgroup.info/en/our-business/downstream/logistics).
• The following table shows the most important IWW transport relations between Hungary and foreign countries. Around half of all goods loaded in Hungary and sent to Germany arrive on the German Danube stretch, and the other half goes further to the west, to Main, Main-Danube Canal and Rhine.

 

TABLE 3: MAIN IWW IMPORT AND EXPORT DESTINATIONS BETWEEN HUNGARY AND FOREIGN COUNTRIES (Q1+Q2+Q3 2019)

Transport relation	Million tonnes
Loaded in Hungary → unloaded in Germany	0.724
Loaded in Romania → unloaded in Hungary	0.647
Loaded in Austria → unloaded in Hungary	0.594
Loaded in Hungary → unloaded in Romania	0.560
Loaded in Hungary → unloaded in Austria	0.540
Loaded in Serbia → unloaded in Hungary	0.387
Loaded in Hungary → unloaded in Serbia	0.278

Source: Hungarian Statistical Office, series 4.6.13
The volumes in the table represent 87% of all international freight traffic in Hungarian IWT.

• In considering the river Main as one major entrance channel between the Danube and the Rhine region, the following can be observed: in the first nine months of 2019, 0.47 million tonnes of goods were transported on the Main, with Hungary as country of loading; of this volume, 85% was unloaded in Germany, 11% in the Netherlands, 3% in Belgium, 1% in France; and within the volume unloaded in Germany, 94%, or 0.37 million tonnes, was made up of oil seeds, forage plants, and related materials (Source: CCNR calculation based on detailed data provided by Destatis).

 

FACT SHEET IWT IN HUNGARY – ANNUAL FIGURES

 

 

Notes on the factsheet: 1) “Share in EU total” contains figures for the EU plus Switzerland and Serbia. 2) For container transport, Eurostat publishes no data for Hungary. # In contrast to transport performance, for transport volume, a country-specific share cannot be calculated.
The modal split indicator is defined as the percentage of inland waterway transport in total freight transport performance measured in tonne-kilometres. Inland freight transport modes include road, rail and inland waterways. Road transport takes into account the TKM made by trucks registered in foreign countries on Hungarian territory, according to the new Eurostat methodology in the series [tran_hv_frmod].

 

PASSENGER TRANSPORT: RIVER CRUISE TRAFFIC ON THE HUNGARIAN DANUBE

FIGURES 2 AND 3: TRAFFIC NUMBERS OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS ON THE DANUBE (NUMBER OF VESSELS) PER MONTH IN 2018 AND 2019

     
Source: Danube Commission (market observation report for the first nine months of 2019)
Values from 1 to 12 on the x-axis are over 12 months.

• The traffic of river cruise vessels on the Hungarian Danube increased in the first nine months of 2019: in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019, 4012 cabin vessels passed the lock of Gabčíkovo on the northern border of Hungary (border with Slovakia). This meant an increase of 835 of vessel transits (+26%) compared to the same period in 2018.
• At the border point of Mohacs in southern Hungary (border between Croatia and Serbia), the number of vessel transits was also higher in Q1-Q3 2019 (891 vessels) than in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2018 (682 vessels), representing an increase by 209 transits or 31%.
• The different traffic intensity between northern and southern Hungary is due to the high number of Danube cruises that leave from Passau or go from Vienna to Budapest (and back), and therefore pass the lock of Gabčíkovo in the north, but not the border point of Mohacs in the south.
• There is a tendency for new river cruise vessels with the following dimensions to enter the Danube market: length of 135 m, width of 11.4 m and a maximum draught of 1.8 m. These vessels are well equipped from a nautical point of view to sail on the Danube.

• A positive evolution in 2019 in the Rhine basin was the recovery of water levels from their low points in late 2018. Water levels on the Austrian and German Danube fell during the course of 2019, and the possible draught of vessels dropped below 200 cm at the beginning of 2020.
• Freight rates for dry and liquid cargo on the Rhine, in the Netherlands and in Germany did not show any major increase in 2019 and remained on a level that corresponded to their multi-annual average.
• Freight rates in France, especially in the Seine region, continued to increase and remain on a high level, as already in the year 2018.

 

IMPACT OF HYDRAULICITY CONDITIONS

• Higher loading rates of vessels have economic consequences and consequences on hydraulicity. The economic consequence is a better usage of the vessel, leading to lower transport costs per tonne. The hydraulic consequence is a higher draught of the vessel (Draught = loading depth of the vessel at rest). Therefore, the navigable channel depth is a decisive economic criterium.
• The available draught of a vessel is calculated on the basis of water levels and parameters specific for each gauging station: the equivalent water level, the minimum navigation channel depth that is guaranteed by the waterway administration, and a security margin under the keel (about 20 cm if the river bed is composed of sand and gravel, and up to 40 cm for river beds composed of rock) (See: Swiss Association for Navigation and Port Economics, SVS aktuell, Dec. / January 2019, pages 7-8).
• The following figures show the available draught for several important gauging stations on the Rhine and Danube. In 2019, there was a recovery from the low water period in 2018. However, for the two gauging stations on the German Danube, the available draught dropped to under 2 metres.
• In November 2019, the European Commission gave a positive opinion, subject to a series of conditions (p.11. Commission Opinion issued at the request of Germany pursuant to the second subparagraph of Article 6(4) of Council Directive 92/43/EEC of 21 May 1992 on the conservation of natural habitats and of wild fauna and flora: deepening the Danube waterway between Straubing and Vilshofen; section Straubing-Deggendorf (Germany/Bavaria)), regarding the technical upgrade of the stretch of the Danube between Straubing and Deggendorf, in order to enable a navigable channel depth of at least 2.5 metres for 185 days per year (See: Die Binnenschifffahrt, EU-Kommission macht Weg zum Donauausbau frei, 29 November 2019). This measure should also lead to a higher average draught of vessels over this stretch of the Danube.

 

FIGURES 1 AND 2: IMPACT OF HYDRAULICS: THE POSSIBLE DRAUGHT OF VESSELS AT IMPORTANT GAUGING STATIONS ALONG THE RHINE AND THE DANUBE (IN CM)

Source: CCNR calculation based on data provided by the German Office for Hydrology and the Federal state of Lower Austria

FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION AND IN FRANCE

FIGURES 3 AND 4: FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION FOR DRY CARGO PER SAILING AREA IN THE RHINE REGION (INDEX 2015=100)

Source: Panteia

• The dry cargo freight rate index shows that differences in navigation conditions (available draught) have a significant influence on freight rates. Conditions for domestic transport in the Netherlands and for transport on the lower Rhine are less marked by low waters than navigation on the middle and upper Rhine. In the dry cargo sector, the absence of low water periods in 2019 also meant that there was no upward tendency for the freight rate level.

 

FIGURE 5: FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION FOR LIQUID CARGO* FROM THE ARA REGION TO RHINE DESTINATIONS (INDEX 2015=100)

Source: CCNR calculation based on PJK International
* Gasoil
PJK collects freight rates (in Euro per tonne) for ARA-Rhine trade of liquid bulk. The CCNR transforms these values into an index with base year 2015.
Lower Rhine: Duisburg, Cologne
Upper Rhine: Karlsruhe, Basel
Main: Frankfurt/M

• In the course of 2019, liquid cargo freight rates for deliveries from the ARA region to the Rhine hinterland were stimulated by a refilling of stocks and an increase of imports. In September, two refineries underwent maintenance works (the Swiss refinery of Cressier and the MIRO refinery in Karlsruhe, Germany), so that greater volumes were imported via the Rhine. In October, November and December 2019, rising water levels, the relatively high stocks of oil products in the hinterland, and the absence of cold weather put freight rates under pressure.

 

FIGURE 6: FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR INLAND NAVIGATION IN FRANCE (INDEX 2015=100)

Sources: Ministry for the Ecological and Inclusive Transition / INSEE

• In France, a dynamic increase of freight rates in the Seine basin can be observed in 2018 and 2019, compared to a smaller increase in the Nord-Pas-de-Calais basin (region around Dunkerque and Lille at the border with Belgium). An overall reason for increasing freight rates in France is the general boom of dry cargo transport in the country, especially in Paris and the Seine basin (see chapter 1).

 

QUARTERLY IWT TURNOVER EVOLUTION PER COUNTRY IN EUROPE

FIGURE 7: TURNOVER EVOLUTION OF INLAND NAVIGATION COMPANIES (GOODS TRANSPORT* – INDEX 2015=100)

Sources: CBS and Destatis
* Data for Germany: only goods transport, data for the Netherlands: goods and passenger transport, but goods transport has a share in turnover of 92%.

• In the two largest IWT countries in Europe, turnover decreased with rising water levels. Hereby, turnover of Dutch IWT companies settled on a level that corresponded to their average turnover level in 2015. German IWT companies, however, settled on a turnover level that was 20% lower than their average level in 2015.
• Net turnover generated by Dutch and German inland waterway goods transport companies accounts for around 80% of all net turnover generated by IWW goods transport companies in the EU (see table).

IWW goods transport *	Netherlands	Germany	EU-28
Number of companies	3,295	668	5,600
Net turnover (in mio. Euro)	2,500	1,689	5,271
Persons employed	9,991	4,211	22,000

Sources: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] and CBS
Values are for 2017 (latest data available).

• Comparing the number of companies with the number of persons employed reveals differences in company size. The average number of persons active (employees, self-employed, and unpaid family members) per company is 3.0 for Dutch companies, compared to 6.3 for German companies, reflecting the higher share of smaller companies (self-employed barge owners) in the Netherlands.

 

FIGURE 8: TURNOVER EVOLUTION OF INLAND NAVIGATION COMPANIES (PASSENGER TRANSPORT* – INDEX 2015=100)

Sources: Eurostat [sts_setu_q], Destatis, INSEE
*Data for France and Germany: only passenger transport
Data for Austria contain both goods and passenger transport turnover, but passenger transport has the majority in Austria.

• Turnover in passenger transport is strongly seasonal. Concerning the countries for which quarterly data are available (Austria, France and Germany), the 2019 figures show a higher turnover level compared to one year earlier.
• German companies’ annual turnover is on rank 2 in Europe. In Germany, 58 river cruise vessels are registered, 783 day trip vessels on rivers and canals, and 130 day trip vessels on lakes.
• French companies’ annual turnover is on rank 4 in Europe. In France, 32 river cruise vessels are registered. A specific feature of the country is the segment of small cruise vessels with less than 40 beds (19 small cruise vessels operate on French waterways). And there are 365 day-trip vessels on rivers and canals (Data on the number of day trip vessels on lakes in France are currently not available from VNF).
• Austrian companies’ annual turnover is on rank 7 in Europe. The Austrian Danube stretch is one of the most important operation regions for river cruises in Europe. But in Austria itself, not many river cruise vessels are registered. Austrian companies are more active in day trip navigation. Austrian day trip vessel companies transport around 700,000 passengers in line traffic each year in Austria, and around 100,000 passengers on thematic and charter trips (Source: Via Donau, Annual report 2018).
• More than half of all IWW passenger transport turnover in the EU is generated in Switzerland, Germany and France. This is explained by the presence of many river cruise companies in Switzerland. Indeed, 153 river cruise vessels (= 43% of the total European fleet) are registered in Switzerland.

IWW passenger transport	Austria	Switzerland	France	Germany	EU-28*
Number of companies	83	99	252	434	4,103
Net turnover (in mio. Euro)	90	744	341	545	3,104
Persons employed	547	2,091	2,074	6,103	24,230

Sources: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2], Statistik Austria, Eidgenössische Steuerverwaltung
Values for 2017, except Austria (2018) and Switzerland (2016)
* including Switzerland

Cost evolution

• Fuel costs are analysed on the basis of the CBRB fuel cost index. The Centraal Bureau voor de Rijn- en Binnenvaart (CBRB) in the Netherlands determines a fuel price index for the IWT sector. The purchase price per 100 liters of gasoil, which is regularly determined by the CBRB in a market survey, is the starting point for the determination of fuel surcharges for all companies in the IWT sector.
• CBRB data indicate that fuel costs rose by 2.6% in 2019, compared to 2018. The further outlook points to a slightly falling tendency in the coming years. Declining oil prices are the major reason for this.

 

FIGURE 9: AVERAGE BUNKER PRICES ACCORDING TO CBRB AND OIL PRICES INCLUDING FORECAST*

Sources: CBRB and Oxford Economics. Toe = Tonnes of oil equivalent
* Oil price forecast is based on Oxford Economics (in US-$). The forecast contains the assumption of an appreciation of the Euro from 1.09 US-$ per Euro in Q1 2020 up to 1.16 US-$ per Euro in Q4 2022.

• According to the European Commission’s Economic Forecast from November 2019 (See: https://ec.europa.eu/info/business-economy-euro/economic-performance-and-forecasts/economic-forecasts/autumn-2019-economic-forecast-challenging-road-ahead_en#economic-forecast-documents), the recovery of oil production in Saudi Arabia and the uptake of shale oil production in North America (both developments increase the supply side) are major drivers for the falling tendency of oil prices.
• Labour costs follow an upward trend in inland navigation, due to the increasing shortage of personnel. Regarding insurance costs, an important development is the rising accident rate in the field of groundings and collisions with infrastructure (bridges). There are also differences in the damage rate between particular rivers (The number of accidents per tonne-kilometre of goods transport is higher on the Danube, for example, than on the Rhine and the Main). Nevertheless, information from insurance companies suggests that insurance premiums are not on an overall rising path. This is related to the high degree of competition between the insurance companies that are active in this type of insurance.

• Transport performance on inland waterways in the European Union amounted to 111.2 billion tonne-kilometres (TKM) in the first three quarters of 2019.
• As a result, Rhine countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Switzerland) reached 91.3 billion TKM, which represents a share of 82%, compared to 84% in the same period of 2018.
• Transport in Danube countries (Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Romania, Serbia, Slovakia) went up by 18.4% to reach a value of 19.8 billion TKM. Their share in EU transport performance increased from 16% to 18%.

 

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON BETWEEN Q3 2018 AND Q3 2019 (IN MILLION TKM)

Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD, Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, De Vlaamse Waterweg, SPW Service Public de Wallonie

FIGURE 1: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT (IWT) PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE BY REGION (IN MILLION TKM)

Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD, Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Destatis, Statbel, De Vlaamse Waterweg, SPW Service Public de Wallonie

• Transport performance on the traditional Rhine was 3% higher in the first three quarters of 2019 than one year previously. The increase reflects the recovery from low water levels, but a closer look reveals that several dry cargo segments are in a difficult situation.
• This is the case for coal, which will be phased out of the energy sector between 2022 and 2038 (see further text in this report). For iron ores, the situation is different. Iron ore transport even increased slightly on the Rhine between 2013 and 2017. However, in 2018, it came under pressure from low water levels, and from the slowdown of the steel and automobile industry. A volume of 16.3 mio. t of iron ores was transported in the first three quarters of 2019, compared to 17.8 mio. t in the same period of 2018, and 19.2 mio. t in 2017. The long- term outlook for steel production and iron ore transport points to a slightly decreasing trend in western Europe.
• Another dry cargo segment with a difficult evolution on the Rhine is that of agricultural products and foodstuff. In the first three quarters of 2019, 7.16 mio. t of agricultural products were transported on the traditional Rhine, 9% less than in the same period of 2018. Food products amounted to 4.4 mio. tonnes (-1%). Since 2013, for the two segments taken together, annual figures (12 months) dropped from 19.6 mio. t in 2013 to 17.3 mio. t in 2017, and 15.1 mio. t in 2018. In the same period, harvest results in western Europe were more or less stable, with the exception of a bad harvest result in 2016.
• The January 2020 forecast for the 2020 grain harvest (European grain trade association COCERAL) points to an increase of 4% for (all types of) grain in Germany, and a 5% decrease in France. For harvest volumes of oilseeds (rape, sunflower, soybeans), an increase of 4% for France and of 12% for Germany are expected.

 

FIGURES 2 AND 3: TRANSPORT VOLUME FOR DRY AND LIQUID MASS CARGO ON THE TRADITIONAL RHINE (IN MILLION TONNES)

Source: Destatis

• For the future of the agricultural and foodstuff segment, there are threats of a delocalization of livestock activities from western Europe (especially from the Netherlands) to Poland, Hungary and Romania. The reasons behind this are increasing problems with emissions related to the livestock activity in densely populated areas (See the study of Royal Haskoning DHV (December 2019), Gevolgen grote Transities en wereldhandel voor de binnenvaart – 2020-2040).
• In contrast to dry bulk, the transport of liquid bulk is on an upward trend on the Rhine, in Belgium and in the Netherlands. In the first three quarters of 2019, liquid bulk volume increased by 5.8% on the traditional Rhine and by 9.4% in the Netherlands. Liquid bulk transport volume amounted to 34.3 million t on the traditional Rhine and to 91.8 million tonnes in the Netherlands. Within liquid bulk on the Rhine, mineral oil products (20.5 million tonnes) had a plus of 10 %.
• Danube transport performance (TKM in all Danube countries added together) was 18.4% higher in the first three quarters of 2019 than one year previously. The Danube recovered not only from low waters but also in economic terms. The steel industry in the Danube region has increased its production level significantly in recent years: Serbia’s steel production has more than tripled between 2014 and 2018, thanks to foreign investment of a large Chinese steel company (Data from the World Steel Association show an increase of Serbian steel production from 0.58 mio. t in 2014 to 1.97 mio. t in 2018. For the Chinese steel investment, see the article in the New York Times “As China Moves In, Serbia Reaps Benefits, With Strings Attached” published on 9 September, 2017).
• Growth in Danube navigation in 2019 is to be seen in the light of these trends but reflects also the recovery from low waters. According to the market observation report of the Danube Commission, 4.3 million tonnes of goods passed the border point of Mohacs in southern Hungary in the first three quarters of 2019 (+16% compared to one year earlier). Iron ore (transported upstream) went up by 18%, and grain (downstream) by 6.1%.
• At the border point between Hungary and Slovakia (lock of Gabčikovo), 4.6 million tonnes were counted (+22.7%). The increase was mainly driven by more upstream transport of iron ores (+21.8%) and food products (+69%). Downstream traffic of mineral oil products had a plus of 74% and fertilizers +58%.
• On the Danube-Black Sea Canal (link between the Danube and the seaport of Constanza), goods traffic reached 12.75 million tonnes in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019, representing an increase of 20.5%.
• The January 2020 forecast for the 2020 grain harvest (European grain trade association COCERAL) points to an increase of 5% for all types of grain in Romania, and a 5% decrease in Hungary. Oilseeds production is expected to remain stable in both countries.

 

TRANSPORT VOLUME IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES

FIGURE 4: INLAND SHIPPING TRANSPORT VOLUME IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (QUARTERLY DATA – IN MILLION TONNES)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave]
For Belgium, Statbel figures for the 2019 quarters were corrected in light of the data available from the waterway administrations in Belgium (De Vlaamse Waterweg and SPW Service Public de Wallonie).

DRY BULK, LIQUID BULK AND CONTAINER TRANSPORT

FIGURE 5: DRY CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)

FIGURE 6: LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)

FIGURE 7: CONTAINER TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)

Sources: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Destatis, De Vlaamse Waterweg, SPW Service Public de Wallonie, Voies Navigables de France, Romanian Institute of Statistics
Note: for Wallonia, no infra-annual container statistics are available. Hence, the product group “other goods / marchandises diverses” was assumed to consist mainly of container transport.

• In the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium and on the Rhine, energy transition from coal to renewables and the reduction of coal transport on inland waterways is a major challenge. According to figures from the German Working Group on Energy Balances, electricity generation from hard coal decreased in Germany from 117.7 TWh in 2015, to 92.9 TWh in 2017, 82.6 TWh in 2018, and 56.9 TWh in 2019 (Source: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen (https://www.ag-energiebilanzen.de/)).
• The mid-term forecasts for inland waterways in Germany point to a further decrease of coal transport (See: Ministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur (2019), Gleitende Mittelfristprognose für den Güter- und Personenverkehr, Februar 2019). According to the national energy transition programme, coal fired power plants (often located in the Rhine and Ruhr area along waterways) will be gradually closed from 2022 onwards, until the closure of all plants by 2038 (See: Bundesverband deutsche Binnenschifffahrt (2020), Pläne zum Ausstieg aus der Kohleverstromung belasten Schifffahrt und Häfen (press release 24 January 2020)).

 

TABLE 1: IWT FOR THE THREE LARGEST GOODS SEGMENTS IN GERMANY (IN THE FIRST NINE MONTHS OF EACH YEAR, IN MILLION TONNES)

Goods segment	2016	2017	2018	2019
Sands, stones, gravel, building materials	23.4	25.0	23.3	26.2
Liquid mineral oil products	21.9	22.2	20.6	24.3
Hard coal and coke coal	30.0	27.3	22.7	21.0

Source: Destatis
Sands, stones, gravel, building material = NST-2007 codes 035, 092, 093; liquid mineral oil products = NST-2007 code 072; hard coal and coking coal = NST-2007 codes 021, 071

• The port of Duisburg is adapting its activities to this energy transition and is currently constructing the largest trimodal container terminal in the European hinterland, on a former coal storage terrain. This new “Duisburg Gateway Terminal” will have a capacity of 850,000 TEU and will serve as destination or starting point for up to 100 trains per week from and to China (New Silk Road), and from and to eastern Europe. The terminal will be operative by 2022. Transports from and to this terminal foresee both rail and barge transport as preferred transport modes. Currently, there are already 30 to 40 trains per week running between China and the port of Duisburg, representing 30% of all trade by rail between China and Europe (Source: Schifffahrt, Hafen, Bahn und Technik (8/2019), Logistik folgt auf Kohle).
• In the Netherlands, the phasing out of coal as an energy resource is particularly relevant as most of the coal used in power plants in the hinterland comes from ARA seaports. Likewise, on an industrial level, the Dutch barging industry is heavily involved in the transport of coal between the Dutch seaports and the Rhine and Ruhr area in Germany (See: Weekblad Schuttevaer (2020): Wegvallen kolen is rampscenario, 29 January 2020).
  In 2019, according to CBS figures, 69.7 million tonnes of sands, stones, gravel, and building materials were transported on Dutch inland waterways, compared to 80.6 million tonnes in 2018. The aim of the Dutch government to reduce different kinds of emissions (nitrogen, CO2, chemical substances such as PFAS) has a negative influence on construction activity for roads and houses, and impacts are also seen for IWW transport.
• In Belgium, sands, stones and building materials are also the largest goods segment. They reached a volume of 12.2 million tonnes in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019 in Wallonia and 20.7 million tonnes in Flanders. This meant a small decrease for these materials (-2.0% in Wallonia and -1.6% in Flanders) compared to the same period in 2018. Coal transport in Belgium declined far more acutely. In Wallonia it amounted to 1.2 million tonnes (-19%), and in Flanders to 1.4 million tonnes (-5.2%).
• In France, dry cargo increased by 6% in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019. The building segment currently benefits from a positive business cycle in France, driven by construction works in Paris and in the Ile-de-France region. For the whole year 2019, the transport of these materials increased by 13.9% up to a level of 25.2 million tonnes (19.1 million tonnes after the first three quarters). Hereby, 15.6 million tonnes (annual value) were allotted to the Seine basin (+14%). Agricultural products in the Seine and the Rhône basin were also on the rise, in the wake of good harvest results.
• In Romania, dry cargo transport recorded a strong increase, and the largest product group, metal ores, sands, stones and building materials (metal ores have the majority within this segment in Romania) reached a level of 12.4 million tonnes in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019, an increase of 13.7% compared to the same period in 2018. The agricultural segment attained 7.1 million tonnes, an increase of 21%.
• Liquid cargo transport increased in all five countries, especially in the Netherlands (+9.4%), France (+13.4%) and Romania (+18.4%). In Germany, refinery production was 3.0% lower than one year previously (see figure), but barge transport of liquid mineral oil products was 18.0% higher (see table above). An explanation for this is the refilling of strategic storage volumes for oil and oil products. Furthermore, oil prices decreased in 2019. Special effects (temporary maintenance works on refineries in the German and Swiss Rhine hinterland) increased further the transport of oil products in the Rhine hinterland (see part on freight rates).

 

FIGURE 8: REFINERY PRODUCTION IN GERMANY (Q1+Q2+Q3) PER PRODUCT (IN MILLION TONNES)

Source: German Association of the Mineral Oil Industry (Mineralölwirtschaftsverband)

CONTAINER TRANSPORT

• Measured in tonnes, container transport was 3.1% higher in Belgium-Flanders, 1.8% lower in the Netherlands, 4.8% lower in Belgium-Wallonia, 6.9% lower in Germany, 7.1% lower on the traditional Rhine, and 8.4% lower in France.
• The result for France hides some regional differences. Indeed, there was a decrease in the French Rhine basin (-8.2% based on TEU; 77.3 thousand TEU), but an increase in the Seine basin (+15.6% based on TEU; 200.0 thousand TEU) and in the Rhône basin (+12.7% based on TEU; 68.1 thousand TEU). In the Nord-Pas-de-Calais basin, the TEU result was quite stable (+0.6%; 81.0 thousand TEU). These comparisons also show that the volume in tonnes, per container, are higher in the French Rhine basin than in other French river basins.
• In the following figures, container transport on the most important waterway for each of the above-mentioned countries (The only exception is the Netherlands, for which there are currently no quarterly inland waterway data for selected rivers available.) is shown, on a quarterly basis and in the unit TEU. In addition, three German river basins (Elbe, Mittelland Canal, West German Canals) are also integrated in this analysis.

 

FIGURES 9, 10, 11, 12: CONTAINER TRANSPORT ON THE TRADITIONAL RHINE, THE ALBERT CANAL, THE SEINE, THE ELBE, THE MITTELLAND CANAL AND THE WEST GERMAN CANAL NETWORK (IN 1,000 TEU)

• On the traditional Rhine in Germany, container transport suffered under a weaker evolution of German exports and imports in 2018 and 2019, and under lost market shares after the 2018 low water period.
  It reached 1.57 million TEU in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019, i.e. -10.5% compared to the same period in 2018. The volume of goods transported in containers was 14.68 million tonnes (-7.2%).

• On the Albert Canal, container transport followed a growing trend in 2019.
  It reached 433.3 thousand TEU in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019, i.e. + 9.2% compared to the same period in 2018.
  Works to increase the height of the bridges on the canal up to 9.1 meters started in 2017 and are scheduled to finish in 2022. The height of 21 bridges is to be increased and will enable barges with four layers of containers to sail on the canal.

• In the Seine basin, container transport reached 200.0 thousand TEU in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019, an increase of 15.6%.
  The ports of Paris report a river container traffic of 138.5 thousand TEU after 10 months in 2019, an increase of 21%.
  The evolution was driven by all segments of waterside container transport in Paris: fluvio-maritime container transport (+16.5%), urban distribution logistics (+48.6%), and waste (+12.5%).

• Inland waterway container transport on the Elbe and in the port of Hamburg increased in 2018 and 2019, both in terms of TEU but also in terms of volumes (tonnes).
  In (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019, 107.0 thousand TEU were transported in the whole Elbe basin (+3.4%).
  The statistical office of Hamburg reports an increase of barge container traffic in volumes (tonnes) by 14.2% in the first half of 2019 for the port of Hamburg, up to 0.69 million tonnes.

Sources: Destatis, De Vlaamse Waterweg, VNF, Statistical Office for Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein

IMPACTS OF THE COVID-19 CRISIS ON EUROPEAN INLAND NAVIGATION

• The spread of the Coronavirus in Europe has strong impacts on the economy overall, and also on inland navigation. Inland waterway transport is first and foremost helping to maintain the provision of the economy and society with important raw materials and products, such as agricultural products, food products, iron ore, mineral oil products, chemicals and consumer goods.
• On the other hand, transport of goods and passengers on inland waterways is hit from the demand side: many economic sectors, whose functioning depends on inland navigation, are strongly reducing their activity, with negative effects on IWT.
• The sectors of the economy that are particularly affected include hotels and restaurants, retail trade, aviation, and leisure industries (travel, sport, entertainment). The crisis will therefore have strong negative effects on passenger transport (both river cruises and day trips). In mid-March 2020, river cruises suffered from a wave of cancellations and had to postpone the start of the season, at least until early May 2020.
• Not only passenger transport, but also goods transport, is affected by travel restrictions and quarantine regulations: the strict entry and quarantine regulations for nautical personnel in many European countries are causing increasing problems in staffing vessels.
• In mid-March, the German automobile industry decided to temporarily suspend production in its plants for several weeks. A long interruption of car production would affect demand for steel, and therefore also transport demand for iron ore, scrap metal, coke coal and metal products. These materials account for around 25% of all volumes transported on the Rhine.
• For container transport, the full effects of the crisis will probably be felt from April and May onwards, when the imports from the Far East (normally produced and loaded in the first quarter of 2020) will not be arriving in the same volumes in different European seaports (Source: Zentralverband der deutschen Seehafenbetriebe (Central Federation of German Seaport Operators)).
• The Central Federation of German Seaport Operators estimated in mid-March that the declines in maritime cargo traffic are in the double-digit percentage range, depending on the type of cargo and location. The precise effects will only be known when port figures become available for the months of April, May and June.

• Low waters affected vessels’ loading degrees and cargo transport to a different degree, depending on the regions.
• On the Upper and Middle Rhine (between Basel and Cologne), vessels’ maximum loading degrees fell to levels between 40 % and 50 %, while they remained above 60 % for the Lower Rhine (between Cologne and Duisburg).
• Freight rates on the Rhine and the Danube rose strongly due to the decrease of the available effective transport capacity. However, for vessels operating in the Netherlands, where the low water period was less severe, the price increase was very limited.

 

IWT COMPANIES – DISTRIBUTION IN EUROPE

NUMBER OF IWT COMPANIES PER COUNTRY IN EUROPE

Source: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] for all countries, except: StatBel (Belgium), Bundesamt für Statistik (Switzerland)

 

 

 

WATER LEVELS AND VESSELS’ LOADING DEGREES IN THE RHINE BASIN

 

 

MAXIMUM LOADING DEGREE OF VESSELS WITH A DRAUGHT OF 3 M AT GAUGING STATIONS ALONG THE RHINE (%)

Source: Calculation CCNR based on data provided by the Federal German Office of Hydraulicity

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 1 Maximum loading degree of vessels with a draught of 3 m at gauging stations along the Rhine

 

• The maximum loading degrees differ according to vessel type and the location of a river. They are calculated by the CCNR on a monthly basis, based on a formula that takes into account specific waterway parameters and the water level data themselves (for more information on the method, see the journal “SVS aktuell” of the “Schweizerische Vereinigung für Schifffahrt und Hafenwirtschaft” (Swiss Association for Shipping and Ports), edition December 2018 / January 2019, pages 7-8).
• According to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (see: Ademmer, M.; Jannsen, N.; Kooths, S.; Mösle, S. (2019). Niedrigwasser bremst Produktion (Low water slows production level), in: Wirtschaftsdienst 99 (1), 79-80), the low water period on the Rhine curbed the growth rate of industrial production in Germany in Q3 2018 by 0.8 percentage points, equivalent to 1.9 billion euros. Temporary interruptions of logistical chains, notably for the chemical industry and for container traffic, are mainly responsible for this loss.
• The correlation between goods transport on the Rhine and water levels / loading degrees shows that larger vessels are more vulnerable to low water periods. This raises the question of new/updated logistical concepts and low draught ships, including the possible revival of smaller vessels in the future.

 

 

QUARTERLY GOODS TRANSPORT ON THE RHINE AND VESSELS’ LOADING DEGREES AT KAUB/RHINE

Source: Calculation CCNR based on data provided by the Federal German Office of Hydraulicity

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 2 Quarterly goods transport on the Rhine and vessels loading degrees at Kaub Rhine

 

WATER LEVELS AND VESSELS’ LOADING DEGREES IN THE DANUBE BASIN

 

 

 

MAXIMUM LOADING DEGREE OF VESSELS WITH A DRAUGHT OF 3 M AT GAUGING STATIONS ALONG THE DANUBE (IN %)

Source: Calculation CCNR based on data provided by the Federal German Office of Hydraulicity, viadonau and the General Directorate of Water Management in Hungary

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 3 Maximum loading degree of vessels with a draught of 3 m at gauging stations along the Danube

 

• Within the Danube basin, a relatively limited impact of low waters on vessels’ loading degrees in Austria and Hungary can be observed. However, a more pronounced impact on Germany is visible. This can be explained by the fact that the German Danube is a free-flowing river in many parts.

 

 

QUARTERLY GOODS TRANSPORT IN HUNGARY AND VESSELS’ LOADING DEGREES IN BUDAPEST

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave] and calculation CCNR based on data from General Directorate of Water Management in Hungary

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 4 Quarterly goods transport in Hungary and vessel loading degree in Budapest

 

• In Hungary, not only low water periods, but also ice periods (for example in Q1 2017) and the general seasonality of Danube transports – related to the agricultural segment – affect transport activity and operating conditions quite strongly.

 

 

FREIGHT RATES AND BUNKER PRICES IN THE RHINE BASIN

 

CBS FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR THE NETHERLANDS, BUNKER PRICES AND OIL IMPORT COSTS*

Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistik (Netherlands), CBRB and IEA
* Volume-weighted average costs, includes France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Canada and USA, cost of insurance and freight included (cif)

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 5 1 CBS Freight Rate Index for the Netherlands

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 5 2 Bunker prices and oil import costs

 

• The CBS conducts regular surveys among 80 Dutch IWW companies, eight times per year. The prices include fuel and low water surcharges. The revenue of a company determines the influence it has on the price index. According to this index, dry bulk freight rates of companies in the Netherlands increased strongly in Q3 2018, reflecting partly the international traffic towards the Rhine hinterland where low water levels were present.
• The liquid bulk part of the CBS index includes freight traffic in multiple areas, such as the Rhine, but also shorter trips within the ARA area (Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp) and other locations within the Netherlands where the water level has less impact on the amount of cargo that can be shipped. It contains spot market rates as well as (long-term) contract rates, and the delivery of all types of liquid bulk (chemicals, diesel, fuel oil, methanol, naphta, sunflower oil, etc.)
• The liquid bulk PJK index is a spot market index based on the transport of oil products from the ARA region via the Rhine to destinations in Germany, France and Switzerland. Its spot market character and the fact that it is based purely on the ARA-Rhine trade, where water levels had a stronger impact on the market than in the Netherlands, explain the differences in its evolution compared to the CBS index for liquid cargo.

 

 

PJK FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR LIQUID CARGO FROM THE ARA REGION TO DESTINATIONS ALONG THE RHINE – COMPARED WITH VESSELS’ LOADING DEGREE AT MAXAU/UPPER RHINE*

Source: Calculation CCNR based on PJK International and German Federal Office for Hydrology
* Gasoil freight rates including pilotage, harbour and canal dues
Left figure: average freight rate level, right figure: per destination

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 6 1 Vessels loading degree at Maxau Upper Rhine

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 6 2 PJK Freight Rate Index for liquid cargo from the ARA region to destinations along the Rhine

 

• Freight rates also differ according to vessel classes. Each waterway is limited by the dimensions of the locks and boat lifts. The Classification of European Inland Waterways (CEMT) is a set of standards for navigable waterways and vessel classes.
• The following figure shows that freight rates for larger vessels increased markedly during low water periods. This is because the supply side (loading capacity) of larger vessels is more affected during low water periods than the supply side for smaller vessels.
• The freight rates per CEMT-class include all kinds of dry cargo and all sailing areas in the Rhine basin. However, the smaller vessel classes (CEMT class I & II = Vessel types Spits and Kempenaar with a cargo capacity of up to 650 t) generally transport agricultural products on the spot market and mainly operate on Dutch and Belgian waterways.

 

 

PANTEIA FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR DRY CARGO TRANSPORT PER CEMT WATERWAY CLASSES (2015=100)

Source: Panteia

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 7 Panteia Freight Rate Index for dry cargo transport per CEMT waterway classes

 

FREIGHT RATES AND BUNKER PRICES IN THE DANUBE BASIN

 

• According to the Danube Commission, the average bunker price in the Danube region was 710 to 735 US-$ per tonne in Q1 2018 and Q2 2018, and 755 US-$ per tonne in Q3 2018. This corresponds to 127€ to 132€ per 100 litre in the first half year, and to 136€ per 100 litre in Q3 2018, which is well above the price level in Western Europe (see previous page).
• There has been a strong price increase in bunker costs in recent times: in the first nine months of 2018, the costs were 27 % above the average level of 2017 (source: Danube Commission (2019), Market Observation Danube navigation, first 9 months 2018).
• Freight rates in the Danube region were pushed upwards by rising bunker costs and by the low water levels in parts of the Danube. Freight rates for upstream transport on the Danube (where iron ore and coal are transported) were higher than freight rates for downstream traffic.

 

 

FREIGHT RATE INDEX IN DANUBE SHIPPING

Source: Danube Commission, analysis CCNR

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 8 1 Freight Rate Index in Danube shipping

 

EVOLUTION OF BUNKER PRICES IN THE DANUBE REGION

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 8 2 Evolution of bunker prices in the Danube region

 

QUARTERLY IWT TURNOVER EVOLUTION PER COUNTRY IN EUROPE

Quarterly data on turnover in IWT are at present only available for very few countries, due to statistical limitations. EUROSTAT presents data for the NACE sector H50 (water transport) which covers maritime and IWT transport together. Based on this dataset, it is possible to identify turnover in IWT only for countries with almost no activity in maritime shipping. For France, Germany and the Netherlands, quarterly turnover data are provided by the national statistical offices (INSEE; Destatis, CBS).

 

 

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN THE NETHERLANDS AND IN GERMANY – MAINLY GOODS TRANSPORT*(2015=100)

Source: Source: CBS, Destatis
* For the Netherlands, the series contains turnover from total IWT, but goods transport has a very high share of 92 %; for Germany, the series contains only turnover from goods transport.

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 9 Turnover development in the Netherlands and in Germany

 

• Despite a drop of goods transport in the Netherlands and Germany, turnover picked up. The reason was the increase in freight rates, due to the low water levels (see previous pages).
• Railway and road goods transport in Germany witnessed a somewhat flat turnover evolution during the years 2017 and 2018. But the turnover level in Q3 2018 was 12-13 % higher than in the reference year 2015, whereas turnover in German IWT was – despite the rise in Q3 2018 – still 3 % lower than in 2015.
• In the Netherlands, turnover in railway goods transport in Q3 2018 exceeded the level of 2015 by 9 %. As in Germany, its evolution since 2017 has been rather flat, but on a higher overall level than in inland shipping (source: Destatis (Germany) and CBS (Netherlands)).

 

 

TURNOVER DEVELOPMENT IN AUSTRIA, FRANCE AND GERMANY – MAINLY PASSENGER TRANSPORT*(2015=100)

Source: Eurostat [sts_setu_q] for Austria, Destatis for Germany and INSEE for France
* For Austria, the series contains turnover from total IWT, but the sector activity is dominated by passenger transport; for Germany and France, the data contain only turnover in passenger transport.

 

 

CH 2 Figure 2 10 Turnover development in Austria, France and Germany

 

• Turnover of Austrian, French and German passenger shipping companies showed the usual seasonal variations, proving that this segment was not too severely affected by the low water levels. The number of cruise vessels on the Upper Danube at the German-Austrian border was 6 % higher in 2018 than in 2017.
• Passenger shipping was also not severely affected on the Middle Danube. According to the Danube Commission, the number of cruise vessels passing the lock at Mohacs in southern Hungary was only 3 % lower in Q3 2018 than one year previously (Market Observation of the Danube Commission, results of the first nine months of 2018).
• For the interpretation of these figures, it should be said that most of the 228 river cruise vessels active on the Danube are registered and owned by companies in Rhine countries: 54% are registered in Switzerland, 18% in Germany, 5% in the Netherlands and also 5% in France. In addition, 14 % of the Danube cruise vessels are Registered in Malta. Vessels registered in Danube countries have a share of only 3 % of the cruise fleet active on the Danube.

• Yearly goods transport performance on inland waterways in Romania represents 8.5% of the total European inland waterway transport performance (12,517 Million TKM in 2017).
• Behind iron ores, sand and gravel, the agricultural products are the second largest IWT goods segment in Romania, representing 23.1% of the total transport performance of agricultural products in the EU.
• Constanta and Galati are the 1st and 3rd largest seaports in Romania, also registering respectively an inland waterway traffic of 3.91 and 1.65 million tonnes in Q3 2018.

 

PORTS IN ROMANIA

INLAND WATERWAY CARGO TRAFFIC IN Q1-Q3 2018 (IN MILLION TONNES)

Source: National Institute of Statistics (Romania)

 

 

PORT OF CONSTANTA AND PORT OF GALATI

 

• With 29 million tonnes of maritime traffic in Q1-Q3 2018, the port of Constanța is the largest seaport in Romania as well as in the whole Danube region. It is very important for the export of grain and for the import of iron ores and coal.
• The seaport of Constanța is also an important point of loading and unloading of river transport, and the river traffic is fluctuating at around a quarterly amount of 3 million tonnes.
• The port of Galati is a river-sea port and is also the third-largest seaport of Romania. Its seagoing traffic amounted to 0.9 million tonnes in Q1-Q3 2018. On the export side, metals from the local steel industry play the largest role. As in Constanța, grain exports from the Danube hinterland are also very important.
• Inland waterway traffic in the river-sea port of Galati has followed an upward trend in the last years, and the dry weather has not interrupted this trend.

 

 

INLAND WATERWAY TRAFFIC IN THE PORTS OF GALATI AND CONSTANTA (IN MILLION TONNES)

Source: National Institute of Statistics (Romania), CCNR analysis

 

GALATI

CH 3 Figure 3 1 1 Inland waterway traffic in the ports of Galati

 

CONSTANTA

CH 3 Figure 3 1 2 Inland waterway traffic in the ports of Constanza

 

 

 

Source: Analysis CCNR based on Eurostat data [sbs_na_1a_se_r2], [iww_go_atygo], [iww_go_actygo], [tran_hv_frmod], [iww_eq_loadcap], [road_go_ta_tcrg], [rail_go_contwgt], [iww_eq_age], CCNR fleet database
Notes: “Share in EU total” contains figures for the EU plus Switzerland and Serbia.
# In contrast to transport performance, for transport volume a country-specific share cannot be calculated due to double-counting problems (cross-border transport).

 

IWT GOODS TRANSPORT IN ROMANIA BY SEGMENT

 

• The quarterly series show heavy seasonal fluctuations for IWT in Romania, due to the harvest cycle and the winter season. In the third quarter of a year (harvest time), the share of agricultural products rises to 38-40 % of total IWT. The third quarter 2018 showed a resilient transport demand, as the lower Danube region has a riversea-character, with large water depths, so that the dry weather in 2018 could not damage transport evolution.

 

 

QUARTERLY TRANSPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS ON INLAND WATERWAYS IN ROMANIA COMPARED WITH TOTAL QUARTERLY
IWT (IN MILLION TONNES)

Source: National Institute of Statistics (Romania)

 

AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS

 

CH 3 Figure 3 2 1 Quarterly transport of agricultural products on inland waterways in Romania

 

 

TOTAL IWT

 

CH 3 Figure 3 2 2 Total quarterly IWT in Romania

 

• Within international transport, Serbia and Bulgaria are the most important trading partners for Romania, followed by Hungary. 76 % of all international traffic comes from these three countries or goes to them.

 

COUNTRIES OF LOADING AND UNLOADING WITHIN INTERNATIONAL IWT FOR ROMANIA (1000 TONNES)*

Source: National Institute of Statistics (Romania)
* Q1-Q3 2018

CH 3 Figure 3 3 Countries of loading and unloading within international IWT for Romania

 

• The transport relations of Romania are quite intense with the middle Danube region (Serbia, Hungary) and the lower Danube region (Bulgaria, Ukraine, Moldova), but far less intense with the upper Danube region (Slovakia, Austria, Germany).

• The overall development of IWT in Europe in the third quarter of 2018 was affected by the low water period which occurred in the second half of the year.

• In the third quarter of 2018, transport performance on European inland waterways reached 32.1 billion TKM.

• This transport performance represented a decrease of 14.9 % compared to the third quarter of 2017, including -27% for the traditional Rhine, -36% for its affluents and -10% for the Danube.

 

Transport performance in Europe

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON
BETWEEN Q3 2017 AND Q3 2018 (TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MILLION TKM)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD, National Statistical Offices, CCNR

 

INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE RHINE, RHINE AFFLUENTS*, DANUBE**, BELGIAN AND DUTCH WATERWAYS (TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MILLION TKM)*

Source: Destatis, StatBel, Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD, calculation CCNR
*Rhine affluents: Main, Mosel, Neckar, Saar
**Danube: Transport performance in Austria, Slovakia, Hungary, Croatia, Serbia, Romania, Bulgaria.

CH 1 Figure 1 1 Inland waterway transport on the Rhine Rhine affluents Danube Belgian and Dutch waterways

 

 

• Due to the long-lasting and extreme low water situation in Europe in summer and autumn 2018, transport fell in many parts of Europe in Q3 2018, but there were some exceptions. On the lower Danube, which has a share of 75 % of total Danube transport performance, the result was higher (+2 %). On the Middle (-38 %) and Upper Danube (-48 %), however, the decline was considerable. The lower Danube (Romania, Bulgaria) was able to perform well because the draught of inland vessels was not restricted by the available water depth due to the river-sea-character of the fairway between the port of Braila and the Black Sea. The port of Galati is located in this river-sea-stretch (see section on ports and chapter 3).
• The total transport performance on the Dutch waterways is largely affected by the Rhine performance (due to hinterland traffic from the Dutch and Belgium seaports to Germany and further upstream). The impact of low waters on the national transport performance was less severe than for the Rhine and its IJssel branch, as the water depth on waterways such as in the ARA region (between Antwerp, Rotterdam and Amsterdam) acted as a stabilizer.
• On the traditional Rhine, 38.2 million tonnes were transported in Q3 2018, representing 18 % less cargo transport compared to Q3 2017. Container transport fell by 20 %, liquid cargo by 16 % and dry cargo by 14 %. It must be taken into account that the Middle and Upper Rhine, which were much more affected by low water levels than the Lower Rhine (see also chapter 2), have a share of 42 % of the total liquid cargo transport performance (along the Middle Rhine, large chemical industrial complexes are present) on the traditional Rhine and its affluents.
• Similarly, the Middle and Upper Rhine’s share within total container transport performance on the traditional Rhine and its affluents is 49 %, a much higher deal than for dry cargo, which therefore explains the rather strong decrease of container transport by 20 % on the whole traditional Rhine.
• On the Main, 3.5 million tonnes were transported in Q3 2018, which signifies 1 million tonnes less IWT (-23 %). For the year 2018 in total, figures from the Directorate General for Waterways and Shipping (GDWS) point to a reduction of around 20 %.
• On the Moselle, 1.73 million tonnes in Q3 2018 were registered (1/3 less than in Q3 2017). Figures from the GDWS indicate -16.4 % for the total year 2018.
• The Saar witnessed the strongest decrease of all Rhine tributaries. Its traffic was cut almost by half: 0.58 million tonnes in Q3 2018 compared to 1 million tonnes in Q3 2017. GDWS figures indicate -28 % for the total year 2018.

 

Container transport on the Rhine – An origin-destination analysis

 

• On the traditional Rhine, 1.76 million TEU were transported in the first three quarters of 2018. The intensity of container transport hereby differs according to the stretches of the Rhine. The highest intensity is on the Lower Rhine section, with 1.73 million TEU. On the Upper Rhine, 0.67 million TEU were transported (the TEU values for the Lower and Upper Rhine cannot be summarised as this would lead to double-counting). Where do these containers come from and where do they go? The following figures shed light on this topic.

 

CONTAINER TRANSPORT ON THE UPPER RHINE ACCORDING TO COUNTRY OF LOADING AND UNLOADING

Source: calculation CCNR based on data from Destatis and from Port of Strasbourg, Port of Mulhouse

 

CH 1 Figure 1 2 Container transport on the Upper Rhine according to country of loading and unloading

 

 

• It can be observed that containers are sent from German, Swiss and French Rhine ports to the seaports in Belgium and the Netherlands. For container transport on the Upper Rhine, Belgian seaports receive more TEU from the hinterland than Dutch seaports. On the Lower Rhine, the lead of Belgium is small, but still exists for container export traffic coming from the hinterland.

 

 

CONTAINER TRANSPORT ON THE LOWER RHINE ACCORDING TO COUNTRY OF LOADING AND UNLOADING

Source: calculation CCNR based on data from Destatis and from Port of Strasbourg, Port of Mulhouse

 

CH 1 Figure 1 3 Container transport on the Lower Rhine according to country of loading and unloading

 

• For the import direction (containers coming from the seaports and going to Rhine ports in Germany, France, Switzerland), the seaports in the Netherlands send more TEU to the hinterland than the Belgian ports: for the Lower Rhine, there are twice as many TEU coming from the Netherlands, and arriving in Germany, than TEU coming from Belgium and arriving in Germany. For the Upper Rhine, this ratio is 1.4: 1 in favour of the Netherlands (for 10 TEU coming from Belgium, 14 come from the Netherlands).

 

 

Container transport on the Rhine – Share of filled containers per country of loading

 

• Information about the share of filled and empty containers per country of loading is also available. For the Upper Rhine, the results are shown in the figure below.

 

 

SHARE OF FILLED CONTAINERS ON THE UPPER RHINE ACCORDING TO COUNTRY OF LOADING (IN %)

Source: calculation CCNR based on data from Destatis

 

CH 1 Figure 1 4 Share of filled containers on the Upper Rhine according to country of loading

 

 

• In the first three quarters of 2018, 87.2 % of the containers that were loaded in French Rhine ports were filled with goods, and only 12.8 % were empty. For containers loaded in German and Swiss Rhine ports, the share of filled containers is also above the 80 % level.
• For containers loaded in the Netherlands and in Belgium, less than one half of all containers were filled with goods. For the Upper Rhine, on average, the ratio was 68 % for filled containers against 32 % for empty containers.
• These different values mirror to a large extent the export of goods from the Upper Rhine region to destinations abroad, and the import of empty containers from abroad (back to the ports along the Upper Rhine where they can be re-filled with goods for export purposes).
• The same calculation for the Lower Rhine indicates that the share of filled containers remains high for France, Germany and Switzerland as countries of loading. The share of filled containers that were loaded in Belgium and the Netherlands is however rising.

 

 

SHARE OF FILLED CONTAINERS ON THE LOWER RHINE ACCORDING TO COUNTRY OF LOADING (IN %)

Source: calculation CCNR based on data from Destatis

 

CH 1 Figure 1 5 Share of filled containers on the Lower Rhine according to country of loading

 

 

Transport volume in main IWT countries in Europe

 

 

INLAND SHIPPING TRANSPORT VOLUME IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (QUARTERLY DATA – MILLION TONNES)

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave] and National Statistical Offices

CH 1 Figure 1 6 Inland shipping transport volume in main European IWT countries

 

 

Dry bulk, liquid bulk and container transport

 

 

RATE OF CHANGE IN INLAND SHIPPING TRANSPORT VOLUME (TONNES) IN FOUR MAJOR IWT COUNTRIES (Q3 2018 VS Q3 2017 – %)*

Source: Source: CBS, Destatis, StatBel, Romanian Institute of Statistics
* In Romania, container transport is at a very low level and is therefore not depicted in the graph. The container data for Belgium are provisional.

 

CH 1 Figure 1 7 Rate of change in inland shipping transport volume in four major IWT countries

• In Germany, dry cargo’s share is 56 %, liquid cargo represents 25 % and container transport 12 %. Packaged and other cargo accounts for the remaining shares. The variations per goods segments are the following (in Q3 2018 compared to Q3 2017): metals (-22 %), chemicals (-16 %), coal (-8 %), iron ore (-13 %), agricultural products (-14 %), sand & stones (-16 %). Export traffic lost 22 %. Import traffic fell by 14 %, and national traffic by 7 %.
• In the Netherlands, dry cargo’s share is 56 %, liquid cargo represents 30 % and container transport 14 %. In Q3 2018 compared to Q3 2017, export of dry bulk fell by 8 %, export of liquid bulk by 9 % and export of containers by 6 %. National traffic was resilient: dry bulk traffic increased by 4 %, liquid bulk by 2 % and container traffic by 8 %.
• In Romania, dry cargo has a share of 95.1 %, liquid cargo 4.6 % and container transport 0.2 %. Transport activity was very robust, due to specific natural conditions (see chapter 3). The dry cargo sector benefitted from a 28 % increase of iron ore transport. Sands, stones and construction materials increased by 11 %. The largest product segment which is grain remained relatively stable (see chapter 3)(based on transport volumes (in t), grain is the largest segment in Romania, while it is iron ore, based on TKM).

 

 

Waterside transport in European ports

 

 

WATERSIDE TRANSSHIPMENT VOLUME IN Q1-Q3 2017, WATERSIDE TRANSSHIPMENT VOLUME IN Q1-Q3 2018 AND RATE OF CHANGE BETWEEN BOTH

Source: Destatis (German ports), Danube Commission (Austrian, Slovakian and Serbian ports), Hungarian Central Statistical Office (Hungarian ports), Romanian Institute of Statistics (Romanian ports), and ports data (for all other ports)
* Data for the ports of Liège and Metz include the 4 quarters of 2017 and 2018.