• Chapter 3 highlights inland waterway transport in Belgium. Both in Flanders and Wallonia, the largest goods segment is sands, stones, gravel and building materials. This goods segment has a share of 37% of the entire transport volume in Flanders and a respective share of 44% in Wallonia.
• In Belgium, most of the container transport occurs in Flanders. Data from the Flemish waterway administration point to a positive trend until the year 2021, but thereafter to a negative trend.
• The explanation for this pattern is the development of maritime container transport. Indeed, for ports in the North Range, including Belgian seaports, maritime container transport decreased between 2021 and 2023. The reason for this decrease is the decline in world trade that stems from the geopolitical crisis.

THE INLAND WATERWAY NETWORK IN BELGIUM

Source: CCNR Market Observation – Annual report 2020, page 42
* North Sea Port consists of the ports of Ghent, Terneuzen, Borsele and Flushing.
 

FIGURE 1: QUARTERLY TRANSPORT DEMAND ON INLAND WATERWAYS IN BELGIUM (IN MILLION TONNES)


Sources: de Vlaamse Waterweg and Service public de Wallonie, CCNR analysis
 
• According to data from the two main Belgian waterway administrations,⁴ the northern part of Belgium (the region of Flanders) has a higher transport activity on inland waterways than the southern part of Belgium (the region of Wallonia). With a transport volume of 68 million tonnes in 2022, transport demand on inland waterways in Flanders was twice as high as in Wallonia, where 34 million tonnes were registered. The quarterly transport volumes in Flanders lay in the range between 16 and 18 million tonnes per quarter, compared to a range between eight and ten million tonnes per quarter in Wallonia.
• Both in Flanders and Wallonia, the largest goods segment is for sands, stones, gravel and building materials, with a share of 37% of the entire transport volume in Flanders and a respective share of 44% in Wallonia.
• In Flanders, the seven largest goods segments account for 79% of the total inland waterway transport in this region. The evolution over time points to a stability orientated trend for most product segments. The only exception might be the segment of sand, stones, gravel and building materials, for which a slightly negative trend has been observed over recent years.

 

FIGURE 2: YEARLY FIGURES FOR THE SEVEN PRODUCT SEGMENTS WITH THE HIGHEST TRANSPORT DEMAND ON INLAND WATERWAYS IN FLANDERS (IN MILLION TONNES)


Sources: de Vlaamse Waterweg, CCNR analysis
 
• In Belgium, most of the container transport takes place in Flanders. Data for container transport in Flanders (source: de Vlaamse Waterweg) point to a positive trend until the year 2021 but afterwards to a negative trend. The explanation for this pattern is the development of maritime container transport. Indeed, for ports in the North Range,⁵ including Belgian seaports, maritime container transport decreased between 2021 and 2023. The reason for this decrease is the decline in world trade that stems from the geopolitical crisis.⁶
• In Wallonia, the seven largest product segments account for 89% of the entire transport on inland waterways in this province. The data show a reduction for the amounts of sands, stones, gravel and building materials between 2016 and 2022. Also, several other product segments reveal a slightly declining trend in Wallonia. Examples are petroleum products, fertilisers and iron ores.

 

FIGURE 3: YEARLY FIGURES FOR THE SEVEN PRODUCT SEGMENTS WITH THE HIGHEST TRANSPORT DEMAND ON INLAND WATERWAYS IN WALLONIA (IN MILLION TONNES)


Sources: Service public de Wallonie, CCNR analysis
 
 

FACT SHEET IWT IN BELGIUM – ANNUAL FIGURES

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Eurostat data [sbs_sc_ovw], [iww_go_qnave], [iww_eq_loadcap], [iww_eq_power_ag], [iww_go_atygo]
 
Notes on the factsheet: #) in contrast with transport performance, a country-specific share cannot be calculated for transport volume.
The modal split share is defined as the percentage of inland waterway freight transport performance (in TKM) within total land-based transport performance. Land-based freight transport modes include road, rail and inland waterways. The road freight activity is reported according to the territoriality principle, where international road freight transport data are redistributed according to the national territories of where the transport actually takes place. These principles are implemented in the Eurostat series [tran_hv_frmod].

• Freight rates in cargo transport showed a decline in the first half year 2023. A main reason is the normalisation of water levels. Dry bulk spot market prices in particular experienced a downward trend, reflecting the end of the coal boom in dry cargo transport and the end of the low-water period.
• Fuel prices in IWT also declined, following the decrease in oil prices. The reasons were mainly demand-driven, as the disruptions in trade and transport created a downward movement in oil and fuel demand. The outlook for fuel prices for the year 2024 points to a level of around 80 Euro per 100 litres.

WATERSIDE GOODS HANDLING IN MAIN UPPER RHINE PORTS

• Monthly data for waterside goods handling in Upper Rhine ports show that cargo handling and related transport demand on the Rhine saw a downward trend in the first half year of 2023.
• This downward trend reflects the overall deterioration of economic conditions in 2023. The Russian war against Ukraine led to shortages in energy supply, strong price increases in the economy, logistical disturbances and a decline in industrial production, trade and overall transport demand. In the wake of this, cargo handling in inland ports and transport activity on inland waterways were reduced (see also Chapter 1).

 

FIGURE 1: MONTHLY WATERSIDE GOODS HANDLING IN MAIN UPPER RHINE PORTS (IN MILLION TONNES)


Source: CCNR analysis based on data provided by the ports
 
 

FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION³

• In the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) Rhine traffic of liquid goods, spot market freight rates experienced a high degree of volatility between mid-2022 and mid-2023. The main reason was the low water period in summer 2022. In the first half of 2023, freight rates normalised in parallel with the normalisation of navigation conditions.

 

FIGURE 2: SPOT MARKET FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION FOR GASOIL FROM THE ARA REGION TO RHINE DESTINATIONS (INDEX 2015 = 100)


Source: CCNR calculation based on Insights Global
* Insights Global collects spot market freight rates (in Euro per tonne) for ARA-Rhine trade of liquid bulk. The CCNR transforms these values into an index with base year 2015.
Lower Rhine: Duisburg, Cologne. Upper Rhine: Karlsruhe, Basel. Main: Frankfurt/Main.

 
• Statistics Netherlands (CBS) collects freight rate data from a panel of Dutch IWT companies. These data are studied twice a quarter and include fuel and low water surcharges.

 

FIGURE 3: FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION PER QUARTER FOR DUTCH IWT COMPANIES ACCORDING TO MARKET SEGMENT (INDEX 2015 = 100, QUARTERLY DATA)


Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (Binnenvaartdiensten; prijsindex)
 
• The dry bulk spot market index rose steeply in summer 2022 but then decreased continuously in the following quarters. The normalisation of water levels, the end of the boom in coal transport and the general economic recession can all explain this development (see Chapter 1).
• Hence, by the second quarter of 2023, the gap between dry bulk spot market and dry bulk contract prices, that had opened in 2021 and in 2022, was closed.
• The decline in the container freight rate index in 2023 reflects the deterioration in containerised trade, maritime container transport and in inland waterway container transport (see Chapter 1, figure 4).
• In addition, lower coal volumes also result in more vessels available for container transport. This rise in fleet capacity leads to lower freight rates in container transport.

FUEL COST EVOLUTION

• In the second quarter of 2020 fuel prices were at their lowest level since 2009 due to Covid-19. During the recovery from Covid-19, as well as during the on-going Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, they rose to their highest level since the beginning of 2006 over the course of two years. Between mid-2021 and mid-2022, crude oil prices, together with fuel prices in inland navigation, roughly doubled. Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, oil prices and fuel prices in IWT subsided. The reasons were mainly demand-driven, as the disruptions in trade and transport created a downward movement in oil and fuel demand.
• In the following graph, the curves for the oil price and for the fuel or gasoil price are roughly at the same level, but it should be noted that the oil price is given in Euro per barrel (= 159 litres), while the fuel prices are given in Euro per 100 litres. Fuel prices are thus higher than crude oil prices in absolute terms.

 

FIGURE 4: AVERAGE FUEL PRICES IN IWT AND BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICES INCLUDING FORECAST


Sources: Insights Global (fuel price based on gasoil bunker prices observed on a daily basis in Northwest Europe), US Energy Information Administration (oil price), Federal Reserve Economic Data (historical exchange rate US-dollar/Euro)
1 barrel (bbl) = 159 litres
 

• The graph shows a very close correlation between fuel prices in inland navigation (gas oil prices) and oil prices, which serves as a basis for forecasting fuel prices (using oil price forecasts).
• The IMF oil price outlook indicates a stable oil price in 2024. This outlook would imply that fuel prices will settle on a level of around 80 Euro per 100 litres in 2024. The further geopolitical course will be decisive for the forecast horizon, especially with regard to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and the war in the Near East. Escalations and de-escalations of these conflicts would have an influence on the price development of crude oil and fuels.

• Transport demand saw a downward trend in the first half of 2023. In the two countries with the highest transport performance, Germany and the Netherlands, there was a decline in transport performance by 8.5% and 7.7% respectively.
• With regard to the different types of cargo, the strongest decrease in percentage terms was observed for container transport, followed by dry cargo transport. This is a consequence of the decline in world trade and industry production.
• Cargo transport on the entire Rhine reached 131.7 million tonnes in the first half year of 2023 (-10.8%). Also, as far as the Rhine is concerned, container transport and dry bulk transport were the hardest hit by the recession and the slowdown in world trade. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine continued to impact considerably freight transport on inland waterways in the first semester of 2023.

FREIGHT TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON BETWEEN Q1+Q2 2022 AND Q1+Q2 2023 (IN MILLION TKM) *


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD (Switzerland, Lithuania and Republic of Moldova). For Belgium, estimation based on data from De Vlaamse Waterweg and SPW Service public de Wallonie.
* For the UK and Italy, data are not available on a quarterly basis.
For Ukraine, data were not available. The Danube Commission reported an increase of 297% in terms of waterside cargo transported in Ukrainian ports in Q1+Q2 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. This increase is linked to the ‘Solidarity Lanes’ initiative.


 

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES

FIGURE 1a: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERORMANCE IN MAIN WESTERN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TKM, QUARTERLY DATA OF TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY)


Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave] and own calculation for Belgium, based on data from De Vlaamse Waterweg and SPW Service public de Wallonie
Due to a structural break in the data from the Belgian statistical office between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018, data for Belgium from this quarter onwards were recalculated. This was done by applying the rates of change present in the data from the Flemish and the Wallonian waterway administrations.¹
 

FIGURE 1b: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MAIN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TKM, QUARTERLY DATA OF TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY)


Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave]

 
 

DRY BULK, LIQUID BULK AND CONTAINER TRANSPORT IN MAIN IWT COUNTRIES AND REGIONS *

FIGURE 2: DRY CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)




 

FIGURE 3: LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)




 

FIGURE 4: CONTAINER TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)




Sources: Eurostat [IWW_GO_QCNAVE], Destatis, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, De Vlaamse Waterweg, SPW Service public de Wallonie, Voies navigables de France, Romanian Institute of Statistics
Notes: for Belgium-Wallonia, quarterly container statistics in tonnes are not available. The product group “machines/other goods” was assumed to consist mainly of container transport. The data include total IWT on the territory of the country/region. In earlier reports, only the volumes transported on the Traditional Rhine, namely the Rhine from Basel to the German-Dutch border, were reported. From now onwards, it will become possible to report on transport volumes on the entire Rhine from Basel to the North Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link). When calculating the total volume of goods transported on the entire Rhine, all steps were taken to avoid double counting. To learn more about the methodology used to calculate traffic on the entire Rhine please refer to the methodology section.
 
 

RHINE AND DANUBE NAVIGATION

FIGURE 5: TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE ENTIRE RHINE AND THE DANUBE PER QUARTER (IN MILLION TKM)


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], Destatis (Rhine and affluents)
* Entire Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the North-Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)
** Danube = TKM in all Danube countries but without Ukraine

 

TABLE 1: FREIGHT TRANSPORT ON THE ENTIRE RHINE IN THE FIRST HALF OF 2022 AND 2023, BY MAIN FREIGHT SEGMENTS *

	1st half 2021 in million t	1st half 2022 in million t	1st half 2023 in million t	Variation 2023/2022 in %
Petroleum products	33.23	30.68	30.78	+0.3
Sand, stones, gravel and building materials	23.18	25.92	23.41	-9.7
Chemical products	25.36	26.13	22.21	-15.0
Solid fuels (coal)	11.45	14.34	11.62	-19.0
Iron ore	11.85	11.00	11.17	+1.5
Agricultural products, foodstuffs and fodder	19.00	14.83	12.01	-19.0
Metals and metal products	7.79	8.28	6.81	-17.8


Source: Destatis, Rijkswaterstaat, CCNR analysis
* The sum of the freight segments selected does not correspond to total transport.
Entire Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the North-Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)
 

FIGURES 6 AND 7: TRADITIONAL RHINE * TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR Q1-Q2 OF 2022 AND 2023)




Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis – statistics for the entire Rhine according to upstream or downstream direction not available
* Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the German-Dutch border
 
• In the first half of 2023, economic conditions evolved slowly. High inflation had a negative impact on household purchasing power. As a result of this high inflation, the European Central Bank raised its key interest rates sharply and the consumer and construction sectors suffered, as financing costs rose. The general economic slowdown also had a negative impact on the industrial sector. In addition, a considerable number of inland (dry cargo) vessels were exported to eastern Europe to handle the alternative route for grain transport from Ukraine, leading to serious shortages of fleet capacity on certain trades in western Europe, which probably contributed to the reduction of transport performance in those areas.
• The effects on the entire Rhine traffic were reflected by a 10.8% decline in freight transport in the first semester of 2023. Cargo transport on the entire Rhine reached 131.7 million tonnes in the first half year of 2023. As many industrial sectors are dependent on inland waterway transport, most inland waterway freight segments have seen a decline in their transport volume. Container transport and dry bulk transport were the hardest hit by the recession and the slowdown in world trade.
• While taking into consideration the traditional Rhine only during the first semester of 2023, it can be observed that cargo transport amounted to 77.4 million tonnes, compared to 84.7 million tonnes in the first semester 2022. This represents a decrease of 8.6%.
• Despite the overall reduction in transport volume, the trends vary greatly depending on the type of goods involved. In the case of chemical products, a fall of 15% was observed. The chemical industry is currently suffering from an economic slowdown due to the rise in the price of chemical raw materials (for example natural gas prices) which can explain the rise in the cost of manufacturing chemical products and the fall in demand. This conclusion also holds when looking specifically at the traditional Rhine, for which downstream and upstream data are also available. Downstream transport of chemicals decreased by around 17% on the traditional Rhine in the first half year of 2023 while upstream transport of chemicals, which has a share of 57% of all chemicals on the traditional Rhine, decreased by around 10%.
• It is also worth noting that the 9.7% decrease in demand for sand, stones, gravel and construction materials is linked to interruptions and delays in the supply chain and the shortage of personnel in the construction sector. The nitrogen crisis in the Netherlands is also having a negative impact in several ways. For instance, construction stagnates when permits are lacking which leads to less demand for building materials and their transport. Another major factor likely to have an impact on transport demand for sand, stones, gravel and building materials is the rise in interest rates by the European Central Bank. This has led to a sharp fall in the number of applications for construction loans. The resulting slowdown in construction activity is also weighing on transport demand for this type of goods. For this segment, it is also worth noting the specific figures for the traditional Rhine as around 76% of all sand, stones, gravel and building materials transported on the traditional Rhine are transported in the downstream direction. This reflects the abundance of these materials in the Upper Rhine region and their exportation towards the Lower Rhine region. In the first half year 2023, the downstream transport of sand, stones, gravel and building materials was approximately at the same level as it was during the same period the previous year. Exports were therefore resilient in view of the deterioration of economic framework conditions.
• On the entire Rhine, while coal transport was still enjoying an upward trend in 2022, these effects fell sharply in 2023. As a result, coal transport declined in 2023. In the first half of 2023, the level of coal transport was close to that recorded in the first half of 2021.
• For the largest freight segment, petroleum products, transport demand in the first half of 2023 remained close to the level recorded in the same period of the previous year. The fall in oil prices in 2023 is likely to have had an impact, with the result that economic conditions were better for this segment than for most others.
• The downward trend in container traffic (-12.8% in the first half of 2023 compared with 2022) is explained by the disruption to global supply chains and the decline in international trade.

 

FIGURES 8 AND 9: MIDDLE DANUBE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR THE MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR Q1-Q2 OF 2022 AND 2023) *




Source: Danube Commission market observation report
* Detailed data according to goods segment and quarters are only available for the Middle Danube at Mohacs.
 
• The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine considerably impacted freight transport on the Danube in the first semester of 2023.
• In the reporting period, the Danube shipping market was impacted by the decline in steel consumption, particularly in the construction and automotive industries, and the corresponding decline in deliveries of iron ore and coking coal (upstream transport).² In addition, restrictions on exports of grain by individual countries in the Danube region (Hungary, Serbia) weighed heavily on downstream transport of grain. This decrease in goods transport is observed for transport between the Upper and Middle Danube region on the one hand, and the lower Danube region on the other hand.
• In the lower Danube region, however, transport demand was higher due to the EU-Ukraine Solidarity Lanes initiative to facilitate Ukraine’s agricultural export and bilateral trade with the EU. In the first half of 2023, freight traffic on the Danube-Black Sea Canal amounted to 10,528,000 tonnes, which represents an increase of 18% compared to the corresponding figure for 2022.

PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE

• Passenger transport was highly impacted by the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 and only began to recover in the second semester of 2021 for both the Rhine and the Danube. The Danube, as well as the Rhine and its Moselle, Main, Neckar and Saar affluents, are important operating areas for river cruises in Europe, alongside the Seine, Rhône and Douro.
• A statistical measurement point for cruise vessels on the Rhine is the lock of Iffezheim on the Upper Rhine.

 

FIGURE 10: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THE LOCK OF IFFEZHEIM ON THE UPPER RHINE IN THE FIRST HALF YEAR PER MONTH


Source: German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 
• With 1,117 cruise vessels passing through the lock of Iffezheim in the first half year of 2023, pre-pandemic levels were reached. In comparison, during the same period in 2019 and 2021, there were respectively 1,078 and 55 cruise vessels which passed through this lock. The figures in 2023 were also slightly higher than in the previous year 2022 (1,089).
• However, no data on the number of passengers are available for this lock, which makes it difficult to evaluate the degree of capacity utilisation of river cruise vessels that pass through it.
• For the Danube, data are available for the lock of Jochenstein near Passau. Alongside Vienna and Budapest, Passau is an important place where cruise vessels both start and finish their journey.

 

FIGURE 11: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THROUGH THE LOCK OF JOCHENSTEIN NEAR PASSAU ON THE UPPER DANUBE IN THE FIRST HALF YEAR PER MONTH


Source: German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 
• Data for the first half year of 2023 confirmed the strong recovery which had been observed for 2022. Indeed, 1,332 river cruise vessels passed through the lock of Jochenstein between January and June 2023 (1,355 during the same period in 2022), which illustrates a rather stable demand for passenger transport on the Upper Danube, as illustrated in figure 11.
• In both cases, it is important to note that the utilisation rate of the river cruise vessels passing the locks is also a key indicator when assessing the recovery of the river cruise sector. For the first half-year 2023, the data for the Danube point to slightly lower utilisation rates of cruise vessels compared to the same period in 2022 (38.2% in 2023 compared to 42.0% in 2022). Capacity utilisation was still below the pre-pandemic levels (first half year 2019: 56.1%).

 

• The first half of 2022 registered a 2.8% decrease in European inland waterway freight transport performance, compared to the same period in 2021.
• After the modest recovery registered at the beginning of 2022, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine caused a decline in cargo transport on the Rhine for almost all cargo segments, especially for the transport of sand, stones and gravel. The exception was coal transport, which increased by 25.7%. The war also considerably impacted freight transport on the Danube, especially grain transport on the Middle Danube.
• Passenger transport on the Rhine and the Danube showed a strong recovery in the first semester of 2022, which led the sector to its pre-pandemic levels, at least for vessel movements.

FREIGHT TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON BETWEEN Q1+Q2 2021 AND Q1+Q2 2022 (IN MILLION TKM)*


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD (Republic of Moldova, Lithuania, Switzerland, Ukraine). For Belgium, own calculation based on data from De Vlaamse Waterweg and Service public de Wallonie.
* For the UK and Italy, data are not available on a quarterly basis. For Ukraine, data for Q1+Q2 2022 were not available. The Danube Commission reported an increase of 234% in terms of waterside cargo transported in Ukrainian ports in Q1+Q2 2022 compared to same period in 2021. It is assumed that this increase is linked with the ‘Solidarity Lanes’ initiative. For Sweden, data are available only from Q1 2022 onwards. Therefore, a rate of change could not be calculated. Only the transport performance could be shown.
 

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES

FIGURE 1a: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERORMANCE IN MAIN WESTERN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TKM, QUARTERLY DATA OF TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY)


Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave] and own calculation for Belgium, based on data from De Vlaamse Waterweg and SPW Service public de Wallonie
Due to a structural break in the data from the Belgian statistical office between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018, data for Belgium from this quarter onwards were recalculated. This was done by applying the rates of change present in the data from the Flemish and the Wallonian waterway administrations.¹
 

FIGURE 1b: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MAIN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TKM, QUARTERLY DATA OF TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY)


Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave]

 
 

DRY BULK, LIQUID BULK AND CONTAINER TRANSPORT IN MAIN IWT COUNTRIES AND REGIONS

FIGURE 2: DRY CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)




 

FIGURE 3: LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)




 

FIGURE 4: CONTAINER TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)




Sources: Eurostat [IWW_GO_QCNAVE], Destatis, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, De Vlaamse Waterweg, SPW Service public de Wallonie, Voies Navigables de France, Romanian Institute of Statistics
Notes: Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to German-Dutch border. For Belgium-Wallonia, quarterly container statistics in tonnes are not available. The product group “machines/other goods” was assumed to consist mainly of container transport. The data contain total IWT on the territory of the country/region.
 
 

RHINE AND DANUBE NAVIGATION

FIGURE 5: TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE RHINE AND THE DANUBE PER QUARTER (IN MILLION TKM)


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], Destatis (Rhine and affluents)
* Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to German-Dutch border
** Danube = TKM in all Danube countries but without Ukraine
 

FIGURES 6 AND 7: RHINE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR Q1-Q2 OF 2021 AND 2022)




Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis
 
• In the first semester of 2022, cargo transport on the traditional Rhine amounted to 84.7 million tonnes which represented -1.7% compared to the same period in 2021. After the two-year period of Covid-19, cargo transport experienced a small recovery at the very beginning of 2022. Nevertheless, Rhine transport started to decrease again due to the Russian war against Ukraine which began in February 2022. The main reasons were the supply side shortages for commodities, industrial input factors and energy. The only exception was coal transport, which went up by 25.7% due to the need to substitute gas in the energy sector. An example for the impact of shortages in input factors due to the war is the segment of sand, stones and gravel which declined by 12.5% in the first semester of 2022. The increase of the European Central Bank’s short term interest rates should have further negative impacts on this particular market.

 

FIGURES 8 AND 9: MIDDLE DANUBE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR THE MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR Q1-Q2 OF 2021 AND 2022) *




Source: Danube Commission market observation report
* Detailed data according to goods segment and quarters are only available for the Middle Danube at Mohacs.
 
• The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine considerably impacted freight transport on the Danube in the first semester of 2022. Due to the absence of maritime grain exports because of the blockage of the Ukrainian seaports,² grain was partly exported from Ukraine via Lower Danube ports, leading to more grain transport in the Lower Danube section. On the Middle Danube, however, grain and foodstuff particularly suffered from this exceptional situation and diminished respectively by 63% and 75% in comparison with the first semester of 2021. This is because Middle Danube countries, in particular Hungary and Serbia, imposed restrictions on exports of agricultural and food products in order to accumulate national stocks at the very beginning of the war. This phenomenon is known in economics as ‘hoarding effect’³ and explains the low results of the first semester 2022.

PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE

• Passenger transport was highly impacted by the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 and only began to recover in the second semester of 2021 for both the Rhine and the Danube. The Danube, as well as the Rhine and its Moselle, Main, Neckar and Saar affluents, are important operating areas for river cruises in Europe, next to the Seine, Rhône and Douro.
• A statistical measurement point for cruise vessels on the Rhine is the lock of Iffezheim on the Upper Rhine.

 

FIGURE 10: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THE LOCK OF IFFEZHEIM ON THE UPPER RHINE IN THE FIRST HALF YEAR PER MONTH


Source: German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 
• The pre-pandemic levels were recovered in the first semester 2022 with 1,089 cruise vessels which passed through the lock of Iffezheim. In comparison, in the same period in 2019 and 2021, there were respectively 1,078 and 55 cruise vessels which passed through this lock.
  Moreover, the figures of April to June 2019 and 2022 show that passenger transport demand has considerably increased compared to the 2013-2018 period.
• For the Danube, data are available for the lock of Jochenstein near Passau. Alongside Vienna and Budapest, Passau is an important place where cruise vessels both start and finish their journey.

 

FIGURE 11: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THROUGH THE LOCK OF JOCHENSTEIN NEAR PASSAU ON THE UPPER DANUBE IN THE FIRST HALF YEAR PER MONTH


Source: German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 
• The strong recovery of the first half-year of 2022 is also well illustrated for the Upper Danube in Figure 11 and suggests a positive development for the second half-year. Indeed, values similar to pre-pandemic levels can be observed from the very beginning of 2022. A comparison between the 2013-2018 period and the years 2019 and 2022 suggests a constant demand for passenger transport on the Upper Danube.
• In both cases, it is important to note that the utilisation rate of the river cruise vessels passing the locks is also a key indicator when it comes to assessing the recovery of the river cruise sector. For the year 2022, however, the river cruise sector still reported about lower utilisation rates of cruise vessels compared to the pre-pandemic levels.

 

• Oil prices and fuel prices rose to their highest level since January 2006 in the first half of 2022. Freight rates fell slightly during the first half of 2022 but increased consistently due to the low water period of July and August 2022. Dry bulk spot market rates showed the strongest increase amongst the different market segments.
• Due to the low water period in summer 2022, the average loading degree of inland vessels sailing on the Upper Rhine went down from more than 56% in May 2022 to around 31% in August 2022.

WATERSIDE GOODS HANDLING IN MAIN UPPER RHINE PORTS

• Monthly data for waterside goods handling in Upper Rhine ports show that cargo handling was on an upward trend between August 2020 and August 2021, reflecting a recovery from the pandemic. But low waters in late 2021 and in mid 2022, as well as the impact of the war in Ukraine, put a stop to this trend.
• The war led to shortages in energy supply, strong price increases in the economy, and logistical disturbances. In the wake of this, cargo handling in inland ports was reduced.
• The effects of the 2022 low water period were confined to the months of July and August, when they unfolded a V-shaped reduction in cargo handling.

 

FIGURE 1: MONTHLY WATERSIDE GOODS HANDLING IN MAIN UPPER RHINE PORTS (IN MILLION TONNES)


Source: CCNR analysis based on data provided by the ports.
 
 

LOADING DEGREE OF DRY CARGO VESSELS AND NUMBER OF VOYAGES

• In order to study the effects of the low water period in summer 2022 in more detail, a database provided by the German Waterways and Shipping Administration was analysed. It entails detailed data about all dry cargo vessel voyages on the Upper Rhine (lock of Iffezheim) in the first eight months of 2022. The following variables could be extracted and quantified:
  1) Average freight load per loaded voyage
  2) Average loading capacity of vessels
  3) Average draught of the vessel per voyage
  4) Total number of loaded voyages (by all dry cargo vessels taken together)
  5) Total volume of goods transported (by all dry cargo vessels taken together)
• Combining variables 1) and 2) allows the average loading degree of vessels (in percentage terms) to be determined. For this calculation, empty trips were not taken into account. The following graph shows a comparison of this indicator with the total number of loaded voyages (variable 4).

 

FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF LOADED VOYAGES AND AVERAGE LOADING DEGREE PER VESSEL VOYAGE FOR DRY CARGO VESSELS AT THE IFFEZHEIM LOCK IN THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF 2022


Source: CCNR analysis based on data from the German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 

• With the onset of the low water period in July 2022, the average loading degree of vessels decreased from 53.7% in June to 42.1% in July. At the same time, the number of voyages remained rather constant (836 in June compared to 829 in July).
• In August 2022, water levels went down even further. This is reflected by a further decrease in the average loading degree of vessels (31.3%). Navigating conditions had become more difficult than in July, which is reflected by a reduction in the number of voyages that could be made (615 in August compared to 829 in July).
• As a result of reduced loading degrees in both months, and less voyages in August, the months of July and August saw a strong decline in the total amount of goods transported on the Upper Rhine (variable 5). In July 2022, the number of tonnes passing through the lock of Iffezheim was 49% lower than the figures recorded for July 2021. In August 2022, the reduction reached -77% compared to August 2021.
• It can also be observed that the average loading capacity of the vessels (variable 2) that were active on the Upper Rhine, changed during the low water period. While this average was 2,463 tonnes in the period from January to June, it reduced to 2,386 tonnes in July (-3%) and to 2,278 tonnes in August (-8%). Indeed, during this low water period in 2022, some of the largest vessels could barely use the Middle and Upper Rhine, with the result of a lower average vessel capacity in the observed operational figures.

 
 

FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION⁴

• In the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) Rhine traffic of liquid goods, spot market freight rates fell slightly in the first half of 2022, simultaneously to the rising water levels. In July and August 2022, a pronounced low water phase then caused an extraordinary increase in freight rates (Q3 2022). Apart from these hydrological effects, freight rates have followed a downward trend since the beginning of 2019.

 

FIGURE 3: SPOT MARKET FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION FOR GASOIL FROM THE ARA REGION TO RHINE DESTINATIONS (INDEX 2015 = 100) *


Source: CCNR calculation based on PJK International
* PJK collects spot market freight rates (in Euro per tonne) for ARA-Rhine trade of liquid bulk. The CCNR transforms these values into an index with base year 2015. Lower Rhine: Duisburg, Cologne. Upper Rhine: Karlsruhe, Basel. Main: Frankfurt/Main.
 
• Statistics Netherlands (CBS) collects freight rate data from a panel of Dutch IWT companies. These data are observed twice quarterly and include fuel and low water surcharges.

 

FIGURE 4: FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION PER QUARTER FOR DUTCH IWT COMPANIES ACCORDING TO MARKET SEGMENT (INDEX 2015 = 100, QUARTERLY DATA)


Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (Binnenvaartdiensten; prijsindex)
 
• Since the beginning of 2019, liquid bulk freight rates followed a downward trend, which matches the results from the PJK index.
• Dry bulk indices went up steeply. Booming coal transport is one explanation. Another explanation is the transfer of vessel capacity from the Rhine to the Danube region. According to estimations by brokers, around 3% of the dry cargo Rhine vessel capacity was transferred to the Danube region in 2022, where it was used to export Ukrainian grain (‘Solidarity Lanes’).
• In addition, indices for all market segments were pushed upwards during the low water periods in 2021 and 2022.

FUEL COST EVOLUTION

• In the first half of 2022, prices for crude oil, diesel, gas oil, electricity and natural gas reached their highest level since January 2006. Indeed, air, inland waterway, road and rail freight transport levy energy surcharges in their tariffs. This allows the increase in energy prices to be partially passed on to customers.
• There is a very close correlation between fuel costs in inland navigation (gas oil prices) and oil prices, which serves as a basis for forecasting fuel prices (using oil price forecasts). The curves for the oil price and for the fuel or gasoil price are roughly at the same level, but it should be noted that the oil price is given in Euro per barrel (= 159 litres), while the fuel prices are given in Euro per 100 litres. Fuel prices are thus higher than crude oil prices in absolute terms.
• In the second quarter of 2020 fuel prices were at their lowest level since 2009 due to Covid-19. During the recovery from Covid-19, as well as during the on-going war in Ukraine, they rose to their highest level since the beginning of 2006 over the course of two years. Between mid-2021 and mid-2022, crude oil prices, together with fuel prices in inland navigation, roughly doubled.

 

FIGURE 5: AVERAGE FUEL PRICES ACCORDING TO THE BELGIAN MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS AND BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICES INCLUDING FORECAST *


Sources: ITB and SPF Economie (fuel price), US Energy Information Administration (oil price), Federal Reserve Economic Data (historical exchange rate US-dollar/Euro). 1 barrel (bbl) = 159 litres.
 

• The IMF oil price outlook⁵ indicates a slight decline in oil prices in 2023 and 2024. This would imply that fuel costs would settle in a range between 80 and 100 Euro per 100 litre in 2023 and 2024. But the further geopolitical course will be decisive for the forecast horizon, especially with regard to the war in Ukraine. Escalations and de-escalations of this conflict can have a strong influence on the price development of crude oil and fuels.

• In Italy, freight transport develops almost entirely along the river Po and its adjacent canals. Between 2019 and 2021, the sector recorded an increase in the volume of goods transported, passing from 287,517 tonnes to 980,000 tonnes. This increase took place despite rather difficult hydrological conditions on the river Po.
• Passenger transport plays a major role in local public transport and tourism, and is highly developed on lakes in Northern Italy and in the Lagoon of Venice. The sector was severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Nevertheless, figures for 2021 suggest a recovery to pre-pandemic levels.

INLAND WATERWAY FREIGHT AND PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN ITALY

 
• Italian inland navigation develops almost entirely along the natural course of the river Po in northern Italy. The territory is characterised by a river system combining the river Po and artificial waterways or canals (Padano-Veneto waterway system), used for the transport of freight and passengers. An important artificial waterway is the Fissero–Tartaro–Canalbianco canal, which connects Mantua and the Adriatic Sea as an alternative to the river Po. Another strategic part of the system is the stretch that links the city of Milan, which is a productive economic centre for the country, with Cremona.
• The waterway system of northern Italy and the northern Adriatic represents an interesting opportunity to connect the numerous industrial activities of the Po Valley and the Adriatic Sea, through an east-west connection.

 

FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN ITALY

• Over the last years, freight transport volumes on the Padano-Veneto waterway system followed a decreasing trend until 2019. For instance, in 2019 the volume of goods transported diminished by 19.06%, passing from 355,222 tonnes registered in 2018 to 287,517.
• The decreasing trend came to a halt in 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic. Cross-border road transport was strongly reduced due to lockdowns. This caused a sudden need to increase inland waterway transport. The following strong demand lifted volumes up to 858,884 tonnes in 2020. The gain was confirmed in 2021, when 980,000 tonnes were transported.
• Other stimulating factors are coming from public initiatives. In 2019, the Italian government launched a decree to support inland waterway freight transport, with the aim of improving the modal split share in the future.⁶
• Within the Padano-Veneto waterway system, the Port of Mantua and its adjacent industry berths represent two vital spots for inland waterway freight transport in Italy. The city has a strategic position that connects its port to the Adriatic Sea through the Fissero-Tartaro-Canalbianco canal and the river Po. Moreover, the settlement of the chemical plants nearby the port favours the economic activity of the inland navigation sector in this area. Another relevant segment concerns metals.
• Project cargo has always represented a solid reality for the Padano-Veneto waterways transport sector. An increasing number of platforms and equipment for the transshipment of this cargo segment is available in inland and maritime ports of the Padano-Veneto waterway system.

 

THE HYDRAULICITY CONDITIONS ON THE RIVER PO

• Figure 1 illustrates hydraulicity levels from 2013 to 2021 for five stretches that entirely cover the navigable parts of the river Po from west to east. Hereby, the stretch from Piacenza to Isola Serafini is the most western river stretch (see also the map). The most eastern stretch extends from Pontelagoscuro to the lock of Volta Grimana near the Adriatic Sea.
• The two stretches that connect Cremona with Mantua (Cremona – Estuary Mincio) showed the most favourable navigation conditions, with two metres draught guaranteed for an average of 270.0 days in 2020 and 137.5 in 2021. Conversely, the stretches between Mantua and Ferrara (Estuary Mincio – Pontelagoscuro) and between Piacenza and Isola Serafini presented critical water level conditions compared to the average of the whole river.

 

FIGURE 1: NUMBER OF DAYS WITH AVAILABLE DRAUGHT LEVELS HIGHER OR EQUAL TO 2 METRES ON THE DIFFERENT STRETCHES OF THE RIVER PO – FROM 2013 TO 2021


Source: Agenzia Interregionale per il fiume Po – AIPo
 

PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN ITALY

• Passenger transport in Italy plays an important role for local public transport and tourism, especially for the main lakes of the country and the Venetian Lagoon. Italy, together with Germany, the Netherlands, France and Switzerland, counts the highest turnover in the passenger transport sector and the highest number of day trip vessels in Europe. In 2020, the sector was severely affected by the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.
• As illustrated in Figure 2, the total number of passengers transported on Italian inland waterways (including lakes) shows an increasing trend rising from 99.4 million passengers in 2002 to 158.5 million in 2019. In 2020, the containment measures of the virus caused a drop of 44% in total passenger transport, down to 88.8 million persons. In 2021, the figures recovered and reached an estimated number of 173.4 million passengers (+9.4% compared to 2019).

 

 

FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF PASSENGERS TRANSPORTED ON MAIN INLAND WATERWAYS IN ITALY – VENETIAN LAGOON, ITALIAN LAKES (SCHEDULED SERVICES), RIVER PO AND CANALS (MILLION PASSENGERS)


Source: Italian Ministry of Sustainable Infrastructure and Mobility (Conto Nazionale delle Infrastrutture e del Trasporto)
* Data on passenger transport on the river Po and its canals are available from 2010 onwards. The total number of passengers in the year 2021 is an estimation. Detailed data for the three categories were not available.
 

• The Venetian Lagoon represents about 92% of Italian passenger transport, accounting for 146 million passengers in 2019 and 84 million in 2020. Except for 2020, passenger numbers followed an increasing trend with a growth of 64% between 2002 and 2019. There are two main reasons behind this growing trend. Firstly, the public transport of citizens in Venice occurs to a large extent via navigation because of the geographical configuration of the city. Secondly, tourism represents the largest share of Venice’s economic activity.
• Scheduled passenger transport services on the main Italian lakes represent around 7% of total passenger transport on Italian inland waterways and is developing in a positive direction.
• The transport of passengers on the Padano-Veneto waterways system (river Po and canals) amounted to 10,473 in 2019, representing only a tiny fraction (<0.1%) of total passenger transport on Italian inland waterways.

 

FIGURE 3: NUMBER OF PASSENGERS ON LAKE VESSELS FOLLOWING A SCHEDULED SERVICE IN ITALY (IN MILLION PASSENGERS)*


Source: Italian Ministry of Sustainable Infrastructure and Mobility (Conto Nazionale delle Infrastrutture e del Trasporto)
* Other Italian lakes: Lago d’Orta, Lago di Ceresio/Lugano, Lago di Bolsena, Lago di Idro, Lago di Viverone, Lago Trasimeno
 
 

FACT SHEET IWT IN SWITZERLAND – ANNUAL FIGURES

ABSOLUTE VALUE⁷ FOR ITALY VS SHARE IN EU TOTAL

 

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Eurostat data [sbs_na_1a_se_r2]
 
Notes on the factsheet:
#) In contrast with transport performance, for transport volume, a country-specific share cannot be calculated.
The modal split share is defined as the percentage of inland waterway freight transport performance (in TKM) within total land-based transport performance. Land-based freight transport modes include road, rail and inland waterways. The road freight activity is reported according to the territoriality principle, where international road freight transport data are redistributed according to the national territories of where the transport actually takes place. These principles are implemented in the Eurostat series [tran_hv_frmod].

• Der Güterverkehr auf dem Rhein spielt für die Schweiz eine wichtige Rolle. Rund 25% aller von der Schweiz importierten Mineralölprodukte werden über den Rhein geliefert.
• Der Passagierverkehr auf den europäischen Binnenwasserstraßen ist ein Sektor, in dem die Schweiz eine wichtige Rolle in Europa spielt. Dies spiegelt sich in hohen Beschäftigungs- und Umsatzzahlen sowie in einer hohen Anzahl von Schweizer Flusskreuzfahrt- und Ausflugsschiffen wider.

DIE BINNENSCHIFFFAHRT IN DER SCHWEIZ

ENTWICKLUNG DER BINNENSCHIFFFAHRT IN DEN SCHWEIZERISCHEN RHEINHÄFEN IN BASEL

• Das größte Gütersegment innerhalb des wasserseitigen Güterverkehrs in den Schweizerischen Rheinhäfen sind die Mineralölprodukte, mit einem durchschnittlichen Anteil von 45% in den letzten zehn Jahren. Bei fast allen in Basel umgeschlagenen Mineralölprodukten handelt es sich um Einfuhren in die Schweiz. Der Anteil der Importrichtung lag 2021 bei 98,5%, 2020 bei 99,0% und war in den Vorjahren ähnlich hoch.

 

ABBILDUNG 1: JÄHRLICHER BINNENSCHIFFSVERKEHR IN DEN SCHWEIZERISCHEN RHEINHÄFEN (IN MILLIONEN TONNEN)


Quelle: Schweizerische Rheinhäfen
 
• Die Schweiz ist bei der Einfuhr von Rohöl und Mineralölprodukten auf mehrere Verkehrsträger angewiesen. Der Modal Split-Anteil des Rheins an diesen Importen betrug 24,6% im Jahr 2020 und 23,4% über den gesamten Zeitraum von 2011 bis 2020. Pipelines hatten mit 36,7% im Jahr 2020 den höchsten Anteil. Der Grund dafür ist, dass Rohöl vollständig über Pipelines importiert wird.

 

ABBILDUNG 2: EINFUHREN VON ROHÖL UND ERDÖLPRODUKTEN IN DIE SCHWEIZ NACH VERKEHRSTRÄGER (IN %)


Quelle: ZKR-Analyse auf der Grundlage von Avenergy Suisse
 
• Bei einer weiteren Differenzierung der Mineralölprodukte zeigt sich, dass der Rhein hohe Modal Split-Anteile bei der Einfuhr von Diesel und Heizöl erreicht.

 

ABBILDUNG 3: MODAL SPLIT-ANTEIL DES RHEINS BEI DER EINFUHR VON ROHÖL UND ERDÖLERZEUGNISSEN IN DIE SCHWEIZ NACH ART DER ERZEUGNISSE (IN %)*


Quelle: ZKR-Analyse auf der Grundlage von Avenergy Suisse. Modal Split-Anteil des Rheins an allen Verkehrsträgern (Pipeline, Schiene, Rhein, Straße, Luftweg)
 
• Der Basler Hafen ist auch ein wichtiger Ort für den wasserseitigen Containerumschlag. Der Containertransport hatte 2019 mit über 120.000 TEU an wasserseitigem Containerumschlag einen ersten Höhepunkt erreicht. Die Covid-Krise brachte dem Containertransport nur einen geringen Verlust von 5% (Stand 2020 gegenüber dem Stand 2019). Im Jahr 2021 erholte sich der Containerverkehr und erreichte mit 121.046 TEU (+9,8% gegenüber 2020) ein neues Rekordniveau. Die Schweizerischen Rheinhäfen investieren in weitere Kapazitäten für den Containerumschlag, um die für die Zukunft prognostizierten steigenden TEU-Mengen bewältigen zu können.

 

ABBILDUNG 4: WASSERSEITIGER CONTAINERTRANSPORT IN DEN SCHWEIZERISCHEN RHEINHÄFEN (IN TEU)*


Quelle: ZKR-Analyse auf Grundlage der Schweizerischen Rheinhäfen
* Hinweis: Für die Jahre 2014-2017 wurden die Zahlen korrigiert, um die 20.000 TEU zu berücksichtigen, die von Lkw auf die Schiene umgeladen wurden.
 

INFORMATIONSBLATT BINNENSCHIFFFAHRT IN DER SCHWEIZ – JÄHRLICHE ZAHLEN

Quellen: ZKR-Analyse auf der Grundlage von Eurostat-Daten [sbs_na_1a_se_r2], [iww_go_qnave], OECD-Kurzzeitindikatoren, Donaukommission (Flottendaten)
 
Anmerkungen zum Informationsblatt:
„Anteil an gesamter EU“ enthält Zahlen für die EU plus Schweiz und Serbien. #) Im Gegensatz zur Verkehrsleistung kann für das Transportvolumen kein länderspezifischer Anteil berechnet werden.
Der Modal Split-Anteil ist definiert als der prozentuale Anteil der Güterverkehrsleistung der Binnenschifffahrt (in TKM) an der gesamten landbasierten Verkehrsleistung. Zu den landbasierten Güterverkehrsträgern gehören Straße, Schiene und Binnenschifffahrt. Der Straßengüterverkehr wird nach dem Territorialitätsprinzip erfasst, d. h. die Daten über den grenzüberschreitenden Straßengüterverkehr werden nach den nationalen Gebieten aufgeteilt, in denen der Verkehr tatsächlich stattfindet. Diese Grundsätze werden in der Eurostat-Reihe [tran_hv_frmod] umgesetzt.

• Die Schifffahrtsbedingungen waren in den ersten sechs Monaten des Jahres 2021 mehr oder weniger normal. Im Juli 2021 war der Rhein von Hochwasser betroffen. Im Oktober und November 2021 gab es sowohl auf dem Rhein als auch auf der Donau Niedrigwasser.
• Die Kraftstoffpreise stiegen aufgrund des starken Anstiegs der Ölpreise. Die Frachtraten stiegen ebenfalls an, wobei der Trend bei Trockengütern und Containern positiver ausfiel als bei Flüssiggütern.

• Was den Hafenbetrieb betrifft, so deuten die monatlichen Daten für den wasserseitigen Güterumschlag in den größten Oberrheinhäfen auf einen leichten Erholungstrend hin, der in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2020 begann und sich im gesamten Jahr 2021 fortsetzte. Allerdings wurde diese Erholung durch das starke Niedrigwasser im Oktober und November 2021 unterbrochen.

 

ABBILDUNG 1: WASSERSEITIGER GÜTERUMSCHLAG IN WICHTIGEN HÄFEN AM OBERRHEIN (IN MILLIONEN TONNEN)


Quelle: ZKR-Auswertung basierend auf Hafendaten
 
• Bezüglich der Wasserführung zeigt Abbildung 2 Daten für den verfügbaren Tiefgang bei Kaub (x-Achse) und die an der Schleuse Iffezheim erfassten Frachtmengen in Millionen Tonnen (y-Achse). Die Werte des verfügbaren Tiefgangs wurden aus den Wasserständen berechnet.²
• Wenn der verfügbare Tiefgang unter eine bestimmte Schwelle fällt, werden die Schifffahrtsbedingungen zu einem Engpass für den Güterverkehr. Beispiele hierfür sind die Niedrigwasserperioden im Oktober und November 2018, aber auch die jüngere Periode Ende 2021 (siehe linker Teil von Abbildung 2). Bei Tiefgangswerten über einem bestimmten Schwellenwert zeigt das Streudiagramm keinen Zusammenhang, außer im rechten Teil des Diagramms, wo hohe Wasserstände den Güterverkehr tendenziell verringern.

 

ABBILDUNG 2: VERFÜGBARER TIEFGANG BEI KAUB UND GÜTERVERKEHR DURCH DIE SCHLEUSE IFFEZHEIM AM OBERRHEIN (MONATLICHE DATEN M1/2004-M12/2021)


Quelle: ZKR-Berechnung auf der Grundlage von Daten der Wasserstraßen- und Schifffahrtsverwaltung des Bundes (WSV), bereitgestellt von der Bundesanstalt für Gewässerkunde (BfG)
 

• Für die Donau sind monatliche Daten für die Schleuse Wildungsmauer bei Wien verfügbar (Januar 2004 – November 2021). Diese Schleuse befindet sich im östlichen Teil Österreichs, wo der höchste Schiffsverkehr in der österreichischen Binnenschifffahrt zu verzeichnen ist. Im Streudiagramm ist ein gewisser Zusammenhang zwischen der Wasserführung und dem Güterverkehr zu erkennen. Wenn der verfügbare Tiefgang gering ist, scheint sich auch das Transportvolumen zu verringern.

 

ABBILDUNG 3: VERFÜGBARER TIEFGANG BEI WILDUNGSMAUER UND GÜTERVERKEHR AUF DER DONAU IN ÖSTERREICH (MONATLICHE DATEN M1/2004-M11/2021)


Quelle: ZKR-Analyse auf der Grundlage von Daten von viadonau und Statistik Austria
 

• Auf der Donau war das vierte Quartal 2021 durch sehr niedrige Wasserstände und entsprechend verfügbare Tiefgangswerte gekennzeichnet. Die Ladungsverluste Ende 2021 können dadurch erklärt werden. Dies bestätigt die in Kapitel 1 gemachten Angaben.

 

FRACHTRATEN IN DER RHEINREGION³

• Im ARA-Rhein-Handel folgen die Spotmarkt-Frachtraten für den Transport von Gasöl einem steigenden Trend, der im dritten Quartal 2021 beginnt und im November 2021 seinen Höhepunkt erreicht. Dies ist hauptsächlich auf die Niedrigwasserperioden im Oktober und November 2021 zurückzuführen.

 

ABBILDUNG 4: ENTWICKLUNG DER FRACHTRATEN FÜR GASÖL AUS DER ARA-REGION ZU ZIELORTEN AM RHEIN (INDEX 2015 = 100)*


Quelle: ZKR-Berechnung auf Grundlage von PJK International
* Die PJK erhebt Frachtraten (in Euro pro Tonne) für den ARA-Rhein-Handel mit flüssigem Massengut. Die ZKR rechnet diese Werte in einen Index mit Basisjahr 2015 um. Niederrhein: Duisburg, Köln. Oberrhein: Karlsruhe, Basel. Main: Frankfurt/M.
 
• Das niederländische Statistikamt (Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, CBS) erhebt Frachtratendaten von einem Panel niederländischer Binnenschifffahrtsunternehmen. Diese Daten werden zweimal im Quartal erhoben und enthalten Treibstoff- und Niedrigwasserzuschläge.

 

ABBILDUNG 5: ENTWICKLUNG DER FRACHTRATEN PRO QUARTAL FÜR NIEDERLÄNDISCHE BINNENSCHIFFFAHRTSUNTERNEHMEN NACH MARKTSEGMENT (INDEX 2015 = 100, VIERTELJÄHRLICHE DATEN)


Quelle: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (Binnenvaartdiensten; prijsindex)
 
• Die Transportpreise für Trockengüter folgten ab dem dritten Quartal 2020 einem Aufwärtstrend. Die Frachtraten im Containerverkehr verzeichneten ab dem zweiten Quartal 2020 ebenfalls positive Zahlen. Bei Flüssiggütern blieben die Transportpreise auf einem niedrigen Niveau, wobei sie im dritten Quartal 2021 weiter sanken.
• Die Transportnachfrage nach flüssigen Produkten stieg in den Niederlanden, nicht aber in den Nachbarländern. Dies erklärt die Situation bei den Frachtraten für Flüssiggüter für niederländische Binnenschifffahrtsunternehmen, da ihre Einsatzgebiete auch andere Länder umfassen.

ENTWICKLUNG DER TREIBSTOFFKOSTEN

• Die Treibstoffkosten werden auf der Grundlage der vom Energiepreisüberwachungssystem des belgischen Wirtschaftsministeriums veröffentlichten Gasöl-/Dieselpreise analysiert.⁴ Ein Vergleich mit den Ölpreisen zeigt eine sehr enge Korrelation, die als Grundlage für einen Ausblick auf die Treibstoffpreise dient.
• In der zweiten Hälfte des Jahres 2021 folgten die Ölpreise – und damit auch die Kraftstoffpreise – weiterhin einem steigenden Trend. Im vierten Quartal 2021 lagen sie bei 79,6 USD (ca. 69,8 Euro, da der Wechselkurs bei 1,17 USD/EUR lag).

 

ABBILDUNG 6: DURCHSCHNITTLICHE TREIBSTOFFPREISE NACH ANGABEN DES BELGISCHEN WIRTSCHAFTSMINISTERIUMS UND PREISE FÜR ROHÖL DER BRENT-ÖL-SORTE EINSCHLIEßLICH PROGNOSE*


Quellen: ITB und SPF Economie (Treibstoffpreis). US Energy Information Administration (Ölpreis). Federal Reserve Economic Data (historischer Wechselkurs US-Dollar/Euro). 1 Barrel (bbl) = 159 Liter.
* EIA = US Energy Information Administration. Die Prognose geht von einem nominalen Wechselkurs von 1,12 US-Dollar pro Euro in den Jahren 2022 und 2023 aus. Diese Prognosen berücksichtigen nicht die Auswirkungen des Krieges in der Ukraine.
 

• In ihrem jüngsten kurzfristigen Ausblick vom Januar 2022 geht die US Energy Information Administration (EIA) davon aus, dass die Spotpreise für Rohöl der Sorte Brent im Jahr 2022 durchschnittlich bei rund 75 US-Dollar pro Barrel und im Jahr 2023 bei rund 67,5 US-Dollar pro Barrel liegen werden. Dies beruht auf Annahmen über die Pandemie und den wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung sowie auf OPEC-Vereinbarungen zur Drosselung der Fördermengen bis September 2022.⁵⁶ Aufgrund der politischen Umstände überschritten sie Anfang März 2022 die Marke von 100 US-Dollar. Sollten sich die politischen Konflikte in der Ukraine fortsetzen, ist mit einem weiteren steilen Anstieg der Öl- und Energiepreise zu rechnen.
• Die Brennstoffpreise in der europäischen Binnenschifffahrt werden sowohl von den Ölpreisen als auch vom Wechselkurs zwischen dem US-Dollar und dem Euro beeinflusst. Der enorme Anstieg der US-Staatsverschuldung begrenzt das Aufwertungspotenzial des US-Dollars gegenüber dem Euro im Jahr 2022.⁷ Die Abwertung des Euro gegenüber dem US-Dollar ab Mai 2021 von 1,22 auf 1,13 im Dezember 2021 führte zu einem Anstieg der Brennstoffpreise in der europäischen Binnenschifffahrt.⁸
• Auf Grundlage dieser Überlegungen wird erwartet, dass die Brennstoffpreise in der Binnenschifffahrt im Jahr 2022 ihren Höchststand erreichen und im Jahr 2023 wieder sinken werden.