• In the first half year of 2022, the freight transport performance on European inland waterways decreased by 2.8% compared to the first half year of 2021. The main reasons are to be found in the economic consequences of the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. This war increased prices in the energy sector and led to shortages and price increases in industrial input factors.
• Transport demand in inland navigation was not spared by these developments. On the Rhine, the only goods segment that achieved an increase in volume was coal transport (+26%). On the lower Danube, an increase in grain transport was observed as this river stretch acted as an alternative route for Ukrainian grain exports. By offering this alternative route, inland navigation helped to compensate for the blockage of Ukrainian seaports. Grain transport from the middle Danube region towards the Black Sea ports decreased, due to middle Danube countries imposing export controls on grain and foodstuff.
• For its part, the activity in the passenger transport sector finally returned to pre-pandemic levels, after huge losses of activity in 2020 and 2021. This recovery can be seen for both the Rhine and the Danube.
• Next to transport demand, the report also analyses operating conditions. Regarding fuel prices in inland navigation, they roughly doubled between mid-2021 and mid-2022, reaching their highest level since the beginning of 2006. The reasons can be found in the rise of energy prices (including crude oil prices), provoked by the war in Ukraine.
• Freight rates followed an upward direction in the first half year of 2022 which was more pronounced for dry bulk than for liquid bulk. Reasons for this trend were the start of a low water period that unfolded its entire magnitude in late summer of 2022 (Q3 2022). For dry bulk, the boom in coal transport also played a role.
• The third chapter of the report assesses the situation of inland navigation in Italy. Freight transport develops almost entirely along the river Po and its adjacent canals. Hydrological conditions are somehow fluctuating, but despite difficult hydrological conditions, the years 2020 and 2021 saw freight transport increase to almost one million tonnes per year.
• Of a high relevance for Italy is passenger transport. The lakes and the Venice lagoon account for more than 99% of all passenger transport on Italian inland waterways.

• In Italy, freight transport develops almost entirely along the river Po and its adjacent canals. Between 2019 and 2021, the sector recorded an increase in the volume of goods transported, passing from 287,517 tonnes to 980,000 tonnes. This increase took place despite rather difficult hydrological conditions on the river Po.
• Passenger transport plays a major role in local public transport and tourism, and is highly developed on lakes in Northern Italy and in the Lagoon of Venice. The sector was severely affected by the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020. Nevertheless, figures for 2021 suggest a recovery to pre-pandemic levels.

INLAND WATERWAY FREIGHT AND PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN ITALY

 
• Italian inland navigation develops almost entirely along the natural course of the river Po in northern Italy. The territory is characterised by a river system combining the river Po and artificial waterways or canals (Padano-Veneto waterway system), used for the transport of freight and passengers. An important artificial waterway is the Fissero–Tartaro–Canalbianco canal, which connects Mantua and the Adriatic Sea as an alternative to the river Po. Another strategic part of the system is the stretch that links the city of Milan, which is a productive economic centre for the country, with Cremona.
• The waterway system of northern Italy and the northern Adriatic represents an interesting opportunity to connect the numerous industrial activities of the Po Valley and the Adriatic Sea, through an east-west connection.

 

FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN ITALY

• Over the last years, freight transport volumes on the Padano-Veneto waterway system followed a decreasing trend until 2019. For instance, in 2019 the volume of goods transported diminished by 19.06%, passing from 355,222 tonnes registered in 2018 to 287,517.
• The decreasing trend came to a halt in 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic. Cross-border road transport was strongly reduced due to lockdowns. This caused a sudden need to increase inland waterway transport. The following strong demand lifted volumes up to 858,884 tonnes in 2020. The gain was confirmed in 2021, when 980,000 tonnes were transported.
• Other stimulating factors are coming from public initiatives. In 2019, the Italian government launched a decree to support inland waterway freight transport, with the aim of improving the modal split share in the future.⁶
• Within the Padano-Veneto waterway system, the Port of Mantua and its adjacent industry berths represent two vital spots for inland waterway freight transport in Italy. The city has a strategic position that connects its port to the Adriatic Sea through the Fissero-Tartaro-Canalbianco canal and the river Po. Moreover, the settlement of the chemical plants nearby the port favours the economic activity of the inland navigation sector in this area. Another relevant segment concerns metals.
• Project cargo has always represented a solid reality for the Padano-Veneto waterways transport sector. An increasing number of platforms and equipment for the transshipment of this cargo segment is available in inland and maritime ports of the Padano-Veneto waterway system.

 

THE HYDRAULICITY CONDITIONS ON THE RIVER PO

• Figure 1 illustrates hydraulicity levels from 2013 to 2021 for five stretches that entirely cover the navigable parts of the river Po from west to east. Hereby, the stretch from Piacenza to Isola Serafini is the most western river stretch (see also the map). The most eastern stretch extends from Pontelagoscuro to the lock of Volta Grimana near the Adriatic Sea.
• The two stretches that connect Cremona with Mantua (Cremona – Estuary Mincio) showed the most favourable navigation conditions, with two metres draught guaranteed for an average of 270.0 days in 2020 and 137.5 in 2021. Conversely, the stretches between Mantua and Ferrara (Estuary Mincio – Pontelagoscuro) and between Piacenza and Isola Serafini presented critical water level conditions compared to the average of the whole river.

 

FIGURE 1: NUMBER OF DAYS WITH AVAILABLE DRAUGHT LEVELS HIGHER OR EQUAL TO 2 METRES ON THE DIFFERENT STRETCHES OF THE RIVER PO – FROM 2013 TO 2021

Chart by Visualizer

Source: Agenzia Interregionale per il fiume Po – AIPo
 

PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN ITALY

• Passenger transport in Italy plays an important role for local public transport and tourism, especially for the main lakes of the country and the Venetian Lagoon. Italy, together with Germany, the Netherlands, France and Switzerland, counts the highest turnover in the passenger transport sector and the highest number of day trip vessels in Europe. In 2020, the sector was severely affected by the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic.
• As illustrated in Figure 2, the total number of passengers transported on Italian inland waterways (including lakes) shows an increasing trend rising from 99.4 million passengers in 2002 to 158.5 million in 2019. In 2020, the containment measures of the virus caused a drop of 44% in total passenger transport, down to 88.8 million persons. In 2021, the figures recovered and reached an estimated number of 173.4 million passengers (+9.4% compared to 2019).

 

 

FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF PASSENGERS TRANSPORTED ON MAIN INLAND WATERWAYS IN ITALY – VENETIAN LAGOON, ITALIAN LAKES (SCHEDULED SERVICES), RIVER PO AND CANALS (MILLION PASSENGERS)


Source: Italian Ministry of Sustainable Infrastructure and Mobility (Conto Nazionale delle Infrastrutture e del Trasporto)
* Data on passenger transport on the river Po and its canals are available from 2010 onwards. The total number of passengers in the year 2021 is an estimation. Detailed data for the three categories were not available.
 

• The Venetian Lagoon represents about 92% of Italian passenger transport, accounting for 146 million passengers in 2019 and 84 million in 2020. Except for 2020, passenger numbers followed an increasing trend with a growth of 64% between 2002 and 2019. There are two main reasons behind this growing trend. Firstly, the public transport of citizens in Venice occurs to a large extent via navigation because of the geographical configuration of the city. Secondly, tourism represents the largest share of Venice’s economic activity.
• Scheduled passenger transport services on the main Italian lakes represent around 7% of total passenger transport on Italian inland waterways and is developing in a positive direction.
• The transport of passengers on the Padano-Veneto waterways system (river Po and canals) amounted to 10,473 in 2019, representing only a tiny fraction (<0.1%) of total passenger transport on Italian inland waterways.

 

FIGURE 3: NUMBER OF PASSENGERS ON LAKE VESSELS FOLLOWING A SCHEDULED SERVICE IN ITALY (IN MILLION PASSENGERS)*

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Source: Italian Ministry of Sustainable Infrastructure and Mobility (Conto Nazionale delle Infrastrutture e del Trasporto)
* Other Italian lakes: Lago d’Orta, Lago di Ceresio/Lugano, Lago di Bolsena, Lago di Idro, Lago di Viverone, Lago Trasimeno
 
 

FACT SHEET IWT IN SWITZERLAND – ANNUAL FIGURES

ABSOLUTE VALUE⁷ FOR ITALY VS SHARE IN EU TOTAL

 

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Eurostat data [sbs_na_1a_se_r2]
 
Notes on the factsheet:
#) In contrast with transport performance, for transport volume, a country-specific share cannot be calculated.
The modal split share is defined as the percentage of inland waterway freight transport performance (in TKM) within total land-based transport performance. Land-based freight transport modes include road, rail and inland waterways. The road freight activity is reported according to the territoriality principle, where international road freight transport data are redistributed according to the national territories of where the transport actually takes place. These principles are implemented in the Eurostat series [tran_hv_frmod].

• Oil prices and fuel prices rose to their highest level since January 2006 in the first half of 2022. Freight rates fell slightly during the first half of 2022 but increased consistently due to the low water period of July and August 2022. Dry bulk spot market rates showed the strongest increase amongst the different market segments.
• Due to the low water period in summer 2022, the average loading degree of inland vessels sailing on the Upper Rhine went down from more than 56% in May 2022 to around 31% in August 2022.

WATERSIDE GOODS HANDLING IN MAIN UPPER RHINE PORTS

• Monthly data for waterside goods handling in Upper Rhine ports show that cargo handling was on an upward trend between August 2020 and August 2021, reflecting a recovery from the pandemic. But low waters in late 2021 and in mid 2022, as well as the impact of the war in Ukraine, put a stop to this trend.
• The war led to shortages in energy supply, strong price increases in the economy, and logistical disturbances. In the wake of this, cargo handling in inland ports was reduced.
• The effects of the 2022 low water period were confined to the months of July and August, when they unfolded a V-shaped reduction in cargo handling.

 

FIGURE 1: MONTHLY WATERSIDE GOODS HANDLING IN MAIN UPPER RHINE PORTS (IN MILLION TONNES)


Source: CCNR analysis based on data provided by the ports.
 
 

LOADING DEGREE OF DRY CARGO VESSELS AND NUMBER OF VOYAGES

• In order to study the effects of the low water period in summer 2022 in more detail, a database provided by the German Waterways and Shipping Administration was analysed. It entails detailed data about all dry cargo vessel voyages on the Upper Rhine (lock of Iffezheim) in the first eight months of 2022. The following variables could be extracted and quantified:
  1) Average freight load per loaded voyage
  2) Average loading capacity of vessels
  3) Average draught of the vessel per voyage
  4) Total number of loaded voyages (by all dry cargo vessels taken together)
  5) Total volume of goods transported (by all dry cargo vessels taken together)
• Combining variables 1) and 2) allows the average loading degree of vessels (in percentage terms) to be determined. For this calculation, empty trips were not taken into account. The following graph shows a comparison of this indicator with the total number of loaded voyages (variable 4).

 

FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF LOADED VOYAGES AND AVERAGE LOADING DEGREE PER VESSEL VOYAGE FOR DRY CARGO VESSELS AT THE IFFEZHEIM LOCK IN THE FIRST EIGHT MONTHS OF 2022


Source: CCNR analysis based on data from the German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 

• With the onset of the low water period in July 2022, the average loading degree of vessels decreased from 53.7% in June to 42.1% in July. At the same time, the number of voyages remained rather constant (836 in June compared to 829 in July).
• In August 2022, water levels went down even further. This is reflected by a further decrease in the average loading degree of vessels (31.3%). Navigating conditions had become more difficult than in July, which is reflected by a reduction in the number of voyages that could be made (615 in August compared to 829 in July).
• As a result of reduced loading degrees in both months, and less voyages in August, the months of July and August saw a strong decline in the total amount of goods transported on the Upper Rhine (variable 5). In July 2022, the number of tonnes passing through the lock of Iffezheim was 49% lower than the figures recorded for July 2021. In August 2022, the reduction reached -77% compared to August 2021.
• It can also be observed that the average loading capacity of the vessels (variable 2) that were active on the Upper Rhine, changed during the low water period. While this average was 2,463 tonnes in the period from January to June, it reduced to 2,386 tonnes in July (-3%) and to 2,278 tonnes in August (-8%). Indeed, during this low water period in 2022, some of the largest vessels could barely use the Middle and Upper Rhine, with the result of a lower average vessel capacity in the observed operational figures.

 
 

FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION⁴

• In the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) Rhine traffic of liquid goods, spot market freight rates fell slightly in the first half of 2022, simultaneously to the rising water levels. In July and August 2022, a pronounced low water phase then caused an extraordinary increase in freight rates (Q3 2022). Apart from these hydrological effects, freight rates have followed a downward trend since the beginning of 2019.

 

FIGURE 3: SPOT MARKET FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION FOR GASOIL FROM THE ARA REGION TO RHINE DESTINATIONS (INDEX 2015 = 100) *

Chart by Visualizer

Source: CCNR calculation based on PJK International
* PJK collects spot market freight rates (in Euro per tonne) for ARA-Rhine trade of liquid bulk. The CCNR transforms these values into an index with base year 2015. Lower Rhine: Duisburg, Cologne. Upper Rhine: Karlsruhe, Basel. Main: Frankfurt/Main.
 
• Statistics Netherlands (CBS) collects freight rate data from a panel of Dutch IWT companies. These data are observed twice quarterly and include fuel and low water surcharges.

 

FIGURE 4: FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION PER QUARTER FOR DUTCH IWT COMPANIES ACCORDING TO MARKET SEGMENT (INDEX 2015 = 100, QUARTERLY DATA)

Chart by Visualizer

Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (Binnenvaartdiensten; prijsindex)
 
• Since the beginning of 2019, liquid bulk freight rates followed a downward trend, which matches the results from the PJK index.
• Dry bulk indices went up steeply. Booming coal transport is one explanation. Another explanation is the transfer of vessel capacity from the Rhine to the Danube region. According to estimations by brokers, around 3% of the dry cargo Rhine vessel capacity was transferred to the Danube region in 2022, where it was used to export Ukrainian grain (‘Solidarity Lanes’).
• In addition, indices for all market segments were pushed upwards during the low water periods in 2021 and 2022.

FUEL COST EVOLUTION

• In the first half of 2022, prices for crude oil, diesel, gas oil, electricity and natural gas reached their highest level since January 2006. Indeed, air, inland waterway, road and rail freight transport levy energy surcharges in their tariffs. This allows the increase in energy prices to be partially passed on to customers.
• There is a very close correlation between fuel costs in inland navigation (gas oil prices) and oil prices, which serves as a basis for forecasting fuel prices (using oil price forecasts). The curves for the oil price and for the fuel or gasoil price are roughly at the same level, but it should be noted that the oil price is given in Euro per barrel (= 159 litres), while the fuel prices are given in Euro per 100 litres. Fuel prices are thus higher than crude oil prices in absolute terms.
• In the second quarter of 2020 fuel prices were at their lowest level since 2009 due to Covid-19. During the recovery from Covid-19, as well as during the on-going war in Ukraine, they rose to their highest level since the beginning of 2006 over the course of two years. Between mid-2021 and mid-2022, crude oil prices, together with fuel prices in inland navigation, roughly doubled.

 

FIGURE 5: AVERAGE FUEL PRICES ACCORDING TO THE BELGIAN MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS AND BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICES INCLUDING FORECAST *


Sources: ITB and SPF Economie (fuel price), US Energy Information Administration (oil price), Federal Reserve Economic Data (historical exchange rate US-dollar/Euro). 1 barrel (bbl) = 159 litres.
 

• The IMF oil price outlook⁵ indicates a slight decline in oil prices in 2023 and 2024. This would imply that fuel costs would settle in a range between 80 and 100 Euro per 100 litre in 2023 and 2024. But the further geopolitical course will be decisive for the forecast horizon, especially with regard to the war in Ukraine. Escalations and de-escalations of this conflict can have a strong influence on the price development of crude oil and fuels.

• The first half of 2022 registered a 2.8% decrease in European inland waterway freight transport performance, compared to the same period in 2021.
• After the modest recovery registered at the beginning of 2022, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine caused a decline in cargo transport on the Rhine for almost all cargo segments, especially for the transport of sand, stones and gravel. The exception was coal transport, which increased by 25.7%. The war also considerably impacted freight transport on the Danube, especially grain transport on the Middle Danube.
• Passenger transport on the Rhine and the Danube showed a strong recovery in the first semester of 2022, which led the sector to its pre-pandemic levels, at least for vessel movements.

FREIGHT TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON BETWEEN Q1+Q2 2021 AND Q1+Q2 2022 (IN MILLION TKM)*


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD (Republic of Moldova, Lithuania, Switzerland, Ukraine). For Belgium, own calculation based on data from De Vlaamse Waterweg and Service public de Wallonie.
* For the UK and Italy, data are not available on a quarterly basis. For Ukraine, data for Q1+Q2 2022 were not available. The Danube Commission reported an increase of 234% in terms of waterside cargo transported in Ukrainian ports in Q1+Q2 2022 compared to same period in 2021. It is assumed that this increase is linked with the ‘Solidarity Lanes’ initiative. For Sweden, data are available only from Q1 2022 onwards. Therefore, a rate of change could not be calculated. Only the transport performance could be shown.
 

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES

FIGURE 1a: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERORMANCE IN MAIN WESTERN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TKM, QUARTERLY DATA OF TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY)

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Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave] and own calculation for Belgium, based on data from De Vlaamse Waterweg and SPW Service public de Wallonie
Due to a structural break in the data from the Belgian statistical office between Q4 2017 and Q1 2018, data for Belgium from this quarter onwards were recalculated. This was done by applying the rates of change present in the data from the Flemish and the Wallonian waterway administrations.¹
 

FIGURE 1b: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN MAIN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TKM, QUARTERLY DATA OF TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY)

Chart by Visualizer

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave]

 
 

DRY BULK, LIQUID BULK AND CONTAINER TRANSPORT IN MAIN IWT COUNTRIES AND REGIONS

FIGURE 2: DRY CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)

Chart by Visualizer


Chart by Visualizer

 

FIGURE 3: LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)

Chart by Visualizer


Chart by Visualizer

 

FIGURE 4: CONTAINER TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)

Chart by Visualizer


Chart by Visualizer

Sources: Eurostat [IWW_GO_QCNAVE], Destatis, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, De Vlaamse Waterweg, SPW Service public de Wallonie, Voies Navigables de France, Romanian Institute of Statistics
Notes: Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to German-Dutch border. For Belgium-Wallonia, quarterly container statistics in tonnes are not available. The product group “machines/other goods” was assumed to consist mainly of container transport. The data contain total IWT on the territory of the country/region.
 
 

RHINE AND DANUBE NAVIGATION

FIGURE 5: TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE ON THE RHINE AND THE DANUBE PER QUARTER (IN MILLION TKM)

Chart by Visualizer

Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], Destatis (Rhine and affluents)
* Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to German-Dutch border
** Danube = TKM in all Danube countries but without Ukraine
 

FIGURES 6 AND 7: RHINE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR Q1-Q2 OF 2021 AND 2022)

Chart by Visualizer


Chart by Visualizer

Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis
 
• In the first semester of 2022, cargo transport on the traditional Rhine amounted to 84.7 million tonnes which represented -1.7% compared to the same period in 2021. After the two-year period of Covid-19, cargo transport experienced a small recovery at the very beginning of 2022. Nevertheless, Rhine transport started to decrease again due to the Russian war against Ukraine which began in February 2022. The main reasons were the supply side shortages for commodities, industrial input factors and energy. The only exception was coal transport, which went up by 25.7% due to the need to substitute gas in the energy sector. An example for the impact of shortages in input factors due to the war is the segment of sand, stones and gravel which declined by 12.5% in the first semester of 2022. The increase of the European Central Bank’s short term interest rates should have further negative impacts on this particular market.

 

FIGURES 8 AND 9: MIDDLE DANUBE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR THE MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR Q1-Q2 OF 2021 AND 2022) *

Chart by Visualizer


Chart by Visualizer

Source: Danube Commission market observation report
* Detailed data according to goods segment and quarters are only available for the Middle Danube at Mohacs.
 
• The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine considerably impacted freight transport on the Danube in the first semester of 2022. Due to the absence of maritime grain exports because of the blockage of the Ukrainian seaports,² grain was partly exported from Ukraine via Lower Danube ports, leading to more grain transport in the Lower Danube section. On the Middle Danube, however, grain and foodstuff particularly suffered from this exceptional situation and diminished respectively by 63% and 75% in comparison with the first semester of 2021. This is because Middle Danube countries, in particular Hungary and Serbia, imposed restrictions on exports of agricultural and food products in order to accumulate national stocks at the very beginning of the war. This phenomenon is known in economics as ‘hoarding effect’³ and explains the low results of the first semester 2022.

PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE

• Passenger transport was highly impacted by the Covid-19 crisis in 2020 and only began to recover in the second semester of 2021 for both the Rhine and the Danube. The Danube, as well as the Rhine and its Moselle, Main, Neckar and Saar affluents, are important operating areas for river cruises in Europe, next to the Seine, Rhône and Douro.
• A statistical measurement point for cruise vessels on the Rhine is the lock of Iffezheim on the Upper Rhine.

 

FIGURE 10: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THE LOCK OF IFFEZHEIM ON THE UPPER RHINE IN THE FIRST HALF YEAR PER MONTH

Chart by Visualizer

Source: German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 
• The pre-pandemic levels were recovered in the first semester 2022 with 1,089 cruise vessels which passed through the lock of Iffezheim. In comparison, in the same period in 2019 and 2021, there were respectively 1,078 and 55 cruise vessels which passed through this lock.
  Moreover, the figures of April to June 2019 and 2022 show that passenger transport demand has considerably increased compared to the 2013-2018 period.
• For the Danube, data are available for the lock of Jochenstein near Passau. Alongside Vienna and Budapest, Passau is an important place where cruise vessels both start and finish their journey.

 

FIGURE 11: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THROUGH THE LOCK OF JOCHENSTEIN NEAR PASSAU ON THE UPPER DANUBE IN THE FIRST HALF YEAR PER MONTH

Chart by Visualizer

Source: German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 
• The strong recovery of the first half-year of 2022 is also well illustrated for the Upper Danube in Figure 11 and suggests a positive development for the second half-year. Indeed, values similar to pre-pandemic levels can be observed from the very beginning of 2022. A comparison between the 2013-2018 period and the years 2019 and 2022 suggests a constant demand for passenger transport on the Upper Danube.
• In both cases, it is important to note that the utilisation rate of the river cruise vessels passing the locks is also a key indicator when it comes to assessing the recovery of the river cruise sector. For the year 2022, however, the river cruise sector still reported about lower utilisation rates of cruise vessels compared to the pre-pandemic levels.

 

• Despite the containment measures related to the pandemic at the beginning of 2021, the transport performance (TKM) on inland waterways in the EU increased by 4.3% in the first half year of 2021, compared to the same period the previous year (from 66,021 Mio. TKM to 68,864 Mio. TKM). The Netherlands and Germany, the two countries representing the highest share in inland waterway transport in Europe, both reported a growth in transport performance of 5.5% (the Netherlands) and 4.7% (Germany).
• For the Rhine, an increase of 7.0% is observed for the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020. This positive development derives from both an increase in transport demand for coal (+30%) and iron ore (+18%) in particular. The discussion on the phasing out of coal has been shifted timewise due to soaring gas prices and a sharp rise in demand for coal from the energy sector. While dry cargo saw an increase in volumes overall, liquid cargo remained on a stable path. With regard to container transport, an increase for Rhine countries is observed.
• Passenger transport recorded a partial recovery in the number of river cruise vessels passing certain locks. However, the maximum capacity of the vessels was far from having been reached which represented a burden for the profitability of the sector.
• The forecast of oil prices remains rather uncertain due to current geopolitical circumstances. Oil prices passed the US$100 mark at the beginning of March 2021. Although a reduction is forecast for 2022, no certainty prevails.
• A special chapter of the report is dedicated to Switzerland, where mineral oil products represent the largest cargo segment in IWW freight transport. The Rhine’s modal share within the Swiss imports of mineral oil products adds up to 24% whereas pipelines have the highest modal share with 36% in 2020.
• Switzerland accounts for a high share within IWW Passenger Transport. In this sector, the financial turnover of Swiss companies represents 25.1% of all the turnover that is generated in the EU and in Switzerland. Swiss companies are active in river cruising on European rivers, but also in day trip shipping on Swiss lakes and on the Swiss part of the Rhine.

• Goods transport on the Rhine plays an important role for Switzerland. Around 25% of all mineral oil products imported by Switzerland are delivered on the Rhine.
• Passenger transport on European inland waterways is a sector where Switzerland plays an important role in Europe. This is reflected by high figures for employment and turnover, and by a high number of Swiss river cruise and day trip vessels.

INLAND WATERWAY FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN SWITZERLAND

DEVELOPMENT OF INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT IN THE SWISS RHINE PORTS IN BASEL

• The largest goods segment within waterside freight transport in the Swiss Rhine ports are mineral oil products, with an average share of 45% in the last ten years. Almost all mineral oil products handled in Basel are imports to Switzerland. The import direction accounted for 98.5% in 2021, 99.0% in 2020 and similarly high shares in previous years.

 

FIGURE 1: YEARLY INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT IN SWISS RHINE PORTS (IN MILLION TONNES)

Chart by Visualizer

Source: Swiss Rhine ports
 
• Switzerland relies on several transport modes for importing crude oil and mineral oil products. The Rhine’s modal share within these imports was 24.6% in 2020 and 23.4% within the whole time-period from 2011 to 2020. Pipelines have the highest share with 36.7% in 2020. The reason is that crude oil is entirely imported by pipeline.

 

FIGURE 2: IMPORTS OF CRUDE OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS TO SWITZERLAND BY MODE OF TRANSPORT (IN %)

Chart by Visualizer

Source: CCNR analysis based on Avenergy Suisse
 
• In differentiating oil products further, it is seen that the Rhine reaches high modal shares for imports of diesel and heating oil.

 

FIGURE 3: MODAL SHARE OF THE RHINE FOR IMPORTS OF CRUDE OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS TO SWITZERLAND BY TYPE OF PRODUCT (IN %)*

Chart by Visualizer

Source: CCNR analysis based on Avenergy Suisse
* Modal share of Rhine within all modes of transport (Pipeline, Rail, Rhine, Road, Air)
 
• Around one out of two tonnes of diesel and heating oil that are imported by Switzerland cross the country’s borders on the Rhine. For gasoline, this ratio is one out of four tonnes (Rhine transport/total imports). For crude oil and other oil products, the modal share of the Rhine is low.
• The port of Basel is also an important place for waterside container handling. Container transport had reached a first peak in 2019, when more than 120,000 TEU were recorded as waterside container transport. The Covid crisis inflicted only a minor loss of 5% for container transport (level in 2020 compared to the level in 2019). In the year 2021, container transport recovered and attained a new record level with 121,046 TEU (+9.8% compared to 2020). The Swiss Rhine ports are investing in further container handling capacities to be able to handle the growing TEU volumes that are foreseen in the future.

 

FIGURE 4: WATERSIDE CONTAINER TRANSPORT IN THE SWISS RHINE PORTS (IN TEU)*


Source: CCNR analysis based on Swiss Rhine ports
* Note: for the years 2014-2017, figures were corrected in order to take into account 20,000 TEU transshiped from trucks to railways.
 

FACT SHEET IWT IN SWITZERLAND – ANNUAL FIGURES

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Eurostat data [sbs_na_1a_se_r2], [iww_go_qnave], OECD short time indicators, Danube Commission (fleet data)
 
Notes on the factsheet:
‘Share in EU total’ contains figures for the EU plus Switzerland and Serbia.
#) In contrast with transport performance, for transport volume, a country-specific share cannot be calculated.
The modal split share is defined as the percentage of inland waterway freight transport performance (in TKM) within total land-based transport performance. Land-based freight transport modes include road, rail and inland waterways. The road freight activity is reported according to the territoriality principle, where international road freight transport data are redistributed according to the national territories of where the transport actually takes place. These principles are implemented in the Eurostat series [tran_hv_frmod].

• Navigating conditions were more or less normal in the first six months of 2021. In July 2021, the Rhine was subject to floodings. In October and November 2021, both the Rhine and Danube experienced low waters.
• Fuel prices rose due to the steep increase in oil prices. Freight rates increased as well, but the trend was more positive in dry cargo and container transport, compared to liquid bulk transport.

• With regard to port operations, monthly data for waterside goods handling in the largest Upper Rhine ports indicate a small recovery trend that began in the second half of 2020 and continued throughout the year 2021. However, severe low waters in October and November 2021 rather interrupted this recovery.

 

FIGURE 1: WATERSIDE GOODS HANDLING IN MAIN UPPER RHINE PORTS (IN MILLION TONNES)

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Source: CCNR analysis based on ports data
 
• Regarding the hydraulicity aspect, figure 2 shows a scatter plot with data for the available draught at Kaub (x-axis) as well as freight volumes in million tonnes recorded at the lock of Iffezheim (y-axis). The values of available draught were calculated from water levels.²
• When available draughts fall below a certain threshold, navigation conditions become a bottleneck for freight transport. Examples are the low water period in October and November 2018, but also the more recent period in late 2021 (see left part of figure 2). For draught values above a certain threshold, the scatter plot does not show any relationship, except for the right-hand part of the diagramme, where high water levels tend to decrease freight transport.

 

FIGURE 2: AVAILABLE DRAUGHT AT KAUB AND FREIGHT TRANSPORT PASSING THROUGH THE LOCK OF IFFEZHEIM ON THE UPPER RHINE (MONTHLY DATA M1/2004-M12/2021)


Source: CCNR calculation based on data from German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), provided by the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG)
 

• For the Danube, monthly data are available for the lock of Wildungsmauer near Vienna (January 2004 – November 2021). This lock is located in the eastern part of Austria where the country’s highest inland waterway freight transport is observed. A certain relationship between hydraulicity and freight transport can be observed in the scatter plot. Indeed, when the avaible draught is low, it seems that transport volumes are also reduced.

 

FIGURE 3: AVAILABLE DRAUGHT AT WILDUNGSMAUER AND FREIGHT TRANSPORT ON THE DANUBE IN AUSTRIA (MONTHLY DATA M1/2004-M11/2021)


Source: CCNR analysis based on data from viadonau and Statistics Austria
 

• For the Danube, the last quarter of 2021 was characterised by very low water levels and available draught values. The cargo losses in late 2021 can be explained by this. This confirms the information given in chapter 1.

 

FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION³

• Within ARA-Rhine trade, spot market freight rates for transporting gasoil followed an increasing trend starting in the third quarter of 2021 and reaching a peak in November 2021. This is mainly due to the low water periods in October and November 2021.

 

FIGURE 4: FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION FOR GASOIL FROM THE ARA REGION TO RHINE DESTINATIONS (INDEX 2015 = 100)*

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Source: CCNR calculation based on PJK International
* PJK collects freight rates (in Euro per tonne) for ARA-Rhine trade of liquid bulk. The CCNR transforms these values into an index with base year 2015. Lower Rhine: Duisburg, Cologne. Upper Rhine: Karlsruhe, Basel. Main: Frankfurt/M.
 
• Statistics Netherlands (CBS) collects freight rate data from a panel of Dutch IWT companies. These data are observed twice quarterly and include fuel and low water surcharges.

 

FIGURE 5: FREIGHT RATE EVOLUTION PER QUARTER FOR DUTCH IWT COMPANIES ACCORDING TO MARKET SEGMENT (INDEX 2015 = 100, QUARTERLY DATA)

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Source: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (Binnenvaartdiensten; prijsindex)
 
• Transport prices for dry bulk followed an upward trend starting after the third quarter 2020. Container transport freight rates remained on a positive string from the second quarter of 2020 onwards. For liquid cargo, transport prices remained at a low level with a further decline in the third quarter 2021.
• Transport demand for liquid products increased in the Netherlands, but not in neighbouring countries. This explains the situation for liquid cargo freight rates for Dutch barging companies, as their operational areas also include other countries.

FUEL COST EVOLUTION

• Fuel costs are analysed on the basis of gasoil/diesel prices published by the energy price monitoring system of the Belgian Ministry of Economic Affairs.⁴ A comparison with oil prices reveals a very close correlation which serves as a basis for an outlook on fuel prices.
• In the second half of 2021, oil prices – and therefore also fuel prices – continued to follow an increasing trend. In the fourth quarter of 2021 they stood at US$79,6 (approximately 69.8 Euro as the exchange rate was USD/EUR 1.17).

 

FIGURE 6: AVERAGE FUEL PRICES ACCORDING TO THE BELGIAN MINISTRY OF ECONOMIC AFFAIRS AND BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICES INCLUDING FORECAST*


Sources: ITB and SPF Economie (fuel price). US Energy Information Administration (oil price). Federal Reserve Economic Data (historical exchange rate US-dollar/Euro). 1 barrel (bbl) = 159 litres.
* EIA = US Energy Information Administration. The forecast assumes a nominal exchange rate of 1.12 US dollars per Euro throughout 2022 and 2023. The forecast does not consider the impact of the war in Ukraine.
 

• In its latest short-term outlook of January 2022, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts Brent crude oil spot prices to average around 75 US dollars per barrel in 2022, and around 67.5 US dollars per barrel in 2023. This originates in assumptions of the pandemic and economic uptake as well as on OPEC agreements to curb supply caps up to September 2022.⁵⁶ Due to political circumstances, they passed the mark of US$100 by the beginning of March 2022. In case of a prolongation of the political conflict in Ukraine, oil and energy prices are expected to rise further on a steep path.
• Fuel prices in European IWT are impacted by both oil prices and the exchange rate between US dollar and the Euro. The very steep escalation of the US national debt limits any appreciation potential of the US dollar towards the Euro throughout 2022.⁷ The depreciation of the Euro in relation to the US dollar, starting in May 2021 from 1.22 to 1.13 by December 2021, increased fuel prices in European IWT.⁸
• Based on this reasoning, fuel prices in IWT are expected to peak in 2022 and afterwards decline in 2023.

• Transport performance on inland waterways in the EU increased by 4.3% in the first half year of 2021, compared to the same period one year earlier. The recovery was mainly driven by the dry cargo sector.
• Passenger transport started to recover only in the second half of 2021. However, the number of passengers, and therefore the capacity utilisation of the cruise vessels, remained rather low.

FREIGHT TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON BETWEEN Q1+Q2 2020 AND Q1+Q2 2021 (IN MILLION TKM)*


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD (Republic of Moldova, Switzerland, Ukraine)
* For the UK, data were not available.
 

FIGURE 1: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT (IWT) PERFORMANCE IN EUROPE BY REGION AND QUARTER (IN MILLION TKM)

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Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave], OECD (Ukraine), Destatis (Rhine and affluents)
* Danube = TKM in all Danube countries including Ukraine
 
• The transport performance illustrated in figure 1 shows a steady recovery trend for inland waterway freight transport in Europe, starting in Q3 2020. A weakening in this upward trend occurred in Q3 2021, which can be attributed to floodings in the Rhine region. This period of high water was followed by a period of low water in Q4 2021.

 

RHINE AND DANUBE NAVIGATION PER CARGO SEGMENT

FIGURES 2 AND 3: RHINE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR Q1-Q3 OF 2020 AND 2021)

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Chart by Visualizer

Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis
 
• Cargo transport on the traditional Rhine amounted to 126.4 million tonnes in the first nine months of 2021, compared to 118.1 million tonnes in the same period in the previous year. This implies an increase of 7.0%. Dry cargo and container transport recorded higher volumes (+10.4% and +3.7% respectively) while liquid cargo remained rather stable. Coal transport benefited from high gas prices throughout the year 2021. Overall, the demand for dry cargo ship capacity was rather high in the second half of 2021.
• For the lock of Iffezheim on the Upper Rhine, data were already available for the entire year 2021. They also indicate an uptake in the first nine months (by 6.0%), but a ‘melting down’ of the latter due to low waters in Q4 2021. For the entire year 2021, cargo volumes remained stable at this lock, which can be regarded as a likely indication also for the entire traditional Rhine for 2021.

 

FIGURES 4 AND 5: MIDDLE DANUBE TRANSPORT VOLUME UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM FOR THE MAJOR CARGO SEGMENTS (IN MILLION TONNES, FOR Q1-Q3 OF 2020 AND 2021)*

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Chart by Visualizer

Source: Danube Commission market observation report
* Detailed data according to goods segment and quarters are only available for the Middle Danube at Mohács.
 
• On the Danube, iron ore transport also benefited from higher steel production. The increase in the first three quarters of 2021, compared to the same period in 2020, amounts to 6.8%. However, looking at monthly figures for iron ore, it is seen that this commodity lost about 18-20% of transport volume in August and September 2021 due to a lower available draught of pushed convoys.
• The agricultural segment of grain follows a rather volatile transport demand on the Danube in general. Whereas grain transport was boosted by good harvests in 2020, it decreased in 2021. There are two main reasons for this. The primary reason lies in developments on the European grain export market. A secondary reason is the start of the above-mentioned low water period.

 
 

PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE

• The Danube, as well as the Rhine and its Moselle, Main, Neckar and Saar affluents, are important operating areas for river cruises in Europe, next to the Seine, Rhône and Douro. The Danube alone accounted for around 40% of the European market in terms of the number of cruise passengers (without rivers in Russia and Ukraine) in 2019. Together with the Rhine and Moselle, Main, Neckar, Saar, this share amounted to around 80-85%.¹
• A statistical measurement point for cruise vessels on the Rhine is the lock of Iffezheim on the Upper Rhine.

 

FIGURE 6: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THE LOCK OF IFFEZHEIM ON THE UPPER RHINE PER HALF YEAR

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Source: German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 

FIGURE 7: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THE LOCK OF IFFEZHEIM ON THE UPPER RHINE PER MONTH

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Source: German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 
• When analysing monthly and half-year figures for 2020 and 2021, it is seen that the ongoing recovery in the cruise sector is concentrated entirely during the period between July and October. The important spring season could not unfold any activity in 2020 and 2021.
• For the Danube, data are available for the lock of Jochenstein near Passau and the lock of Gabčikovo near Bratislava. The latter is located on the border between Slovakia and Hungary. It is also situated between Vienna and Budapest. Therefore, the passing cruise vessels reflect the cruising activity between two important destinations within the European river cruise sector. Next to Vienna and Budapest, Passau is also an important place where cruise vessels both start and finish their journey.

 

FIGURE 8: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS PASSING THROUGH THE LOCK OF JOCHENSTEIN NEAR PASSAU ON THE UPPER DANUBE PER MONTH

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Source: German Waterway and Shipping Administration
 
• In 2019, 3,668 cruise vessels passed through the lock of Jochenstein, with a total of 512,458 passengers on board. In 2020, the respective numbers were 324 vessel transits and 25,160 passengers.
• In 2021, a recovery was seen, with 1,255 cruise vessels and 107,727 passengers.
• Data for the lock of Gabčikovo show a recovery in the number of passengers for the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020, of 77.4%. However, the activity in 2021 still lies at 63.9% below pre-pandemic levels. In total numbers, 98,000 passengers on cruise vessels were counted at this border point in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2021, compared to 55,000 in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2020, and 568,000 passengers in (Q1+Q2+Q3) 2019. In the whole year of 2019, 720,800 passengers were counted at Gabčikovo.

 
 

TRANSPORT VOLUME IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES

FIGURE 9: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT VOLUME IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TONNES, QUARTERLY DATA OF TRANSPORT VOLUME ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY)

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Source: Eurostat [iww_go_qnave]
Due to a lack of plausibility of Stat.Bel data as from Q1 2018, the data for Belgium from this quarter onwards were recalculated. This was done by applying the rate of change that is present in the more plausible data from the Flemish waterway administration (De Vlaamse Waterweg). The series for Belgium then follows the trend for Flanders, but is located on a higher level. Compared to previous editions, it was decided to add Serbia, due to high IWT volumes in this country in recent times.

DRY BULK, LIQUID BULK AND CONTAINER TRANSPORT IN MAIN IWT COUNTRIES AND REGIONS

FIGURE 10: DRY CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)

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Chart by Visualizer

 

FIGURE 11: LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)

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Chart by Visualizer

 

FIGURE 12: CONTAINER TRANSPORT (IN MILLION TONNES)

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Chart by Visualizer

Sources: Eurostat [IWW_GO_QCNAVE], Destatis. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, De Vlaamse Waterweg, SPW Service Public de Wallonie, Voies Navigables de France, Romanian Institute of Statistics
Note: For Belgium-Wallonia, infra-annual container statistics in tonnes are not available. The product group “machines/other goods” was assumed to consist mainly of container transport. The data contain total IWT on the territory of the country/region.