• On the Rhine, the year 2023 was characterised by good navigating conditions with very few and short low water periods. The Danube had more critical navigating conditions, with a rather high number of low water days (= days when water levels were below the critical threshold ‘Low navigable water level’). The freight rates for dry cargo transport on the Rhine mostly recorded a decrease in 2023 compared to 2022. The strongest drop was observed for dry bulk spot market rates. This decrease in dry cargo freight rates can be explained by the decrease in dry bulk transport in 2023 compared to 2022 and the driving effect of extra coal demand observed in 2022 coming to an end in 2023. For containers, freight rates have on a yearly average been increasing since 2021.
• For liquid cargo, freight rates were on a rather high level in 2023. Although they were partly lower than in 2022, the freight rates level for liquid cargo was still higher than during the time before the low water period of 2022.

 

WATER LEVELS, AVAILABLE DRAUGHTS AND NAVIGATION CONDITIONS

  • The overall performance of inland waterway transport is linked to – among other factors – water levels, which determine the amount of cargo that a vessel can load and transport under safe navigation conditions. The load factor (ratio of cargo loaded to loading capacity of the vessel) influences the unit costs of inland waterway transport. A high load factor represents a high volume of cargo transported per trip, and therefore lower costs per TKM. In addition, high water depths and the resulting high load factors enable inland waterway transport to reach a high degree of energy efficiency.
  • Low water periods therefore reduce not only the load factor and overall cargo transport on inland waterways but lead also to higher costs. Although the reduction of the load factor could be compensated by putting more vessels into operation, there are obvious limitations to this.21 An example is the low water period experienced in both autumn 2018 and summer 2022 on the Rhine. The amount of cargo that a vessel can load at a certain water level, while keeping safe navigation conditions, is determined by the available draught, as can be seen in the next figure.
  •  

    FIGURE 1: ACTUAL WATER LEVEL, ACTUAL DRAUGHT, EQUIVALENT WATER LEVEL, MINIMUM NAVIGATION CHANNEL DEPTH AND POSSIBLE OR AVAILABLE DRAUGHT AT KAUB/MIDDLE RHINE *


    Source: CCNR based on the German Federal Institute for Hydrology (BfG) (2015)
    * The distances in this drawing are not at scale. In this illustration, the date chosen to determine the available or possible draught is 3 September 2020, when the actual water level was 239 cm on average. For a sailing vessel, the actual draught also contains the squat effect. The latter results from hydrodynamic effects and leads to a higher draught compared to a vessel at rest. The squat effect is stronger the less water present under the keel, and the faster the vessel is sailing.

     

  • One way of observing low water periods is to calculate the statistical frequencies of available draught22 values for different years. The frequency distribution shows that the year 2023 was characterised by a smaller frequency of low water days compared to the year 2022. For example, in 2023, there were 24 days at the gauge station Kaub when the available draught was in the interval between 1.31 m and 1.80 m. In 2022, this category counted 52 days.
  •  

    FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR FOR AVAILABLE DRAUGHT INTERVALS AT KAUB


    Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), provided by the German Federal Office for Hydrology (BfG)
     

  • Another method for assessing the quality of navigating conditions over an entire year is based on the concept of counting the number of days when water levels are below a certain reference low water level, known as Equivalent Water Level (EWL) for the free-flowing sections of the Rhine and Low Navigable Water Level (LNWL) for the Danube. If water levels drop below this reference low water level, this indicates a situation of critical navigation.

 

NUMBER OF CRITICAL LOW WATER DAYS FOR RHINE AND DANUBE GAUGE STATIONS

    RHINE GAUGE STATIONS

    • The EWL is determined by the Central Commission for the Navigation of the Rhine (CCNR) for several gauge stations along the Rhine. The values are adapted every ten years, to take account of natural and anthropogenic changes.
    • The equivalent water level 2012 came into force in 2014 and remained valid until the end of 2022. A new equivalent water level was introduced on 1 January 2023 (known as EWL 2022) and is applicable until the end of 2031.
    • Although the equivalent water level is measured in centimetres, the starting point of its determination is a flow concept. Indeed, equivalent flow values (indicated in the unit m3/s) measured against the benchmark levels are recalculated every ten years as flows within a 100-year time series. The equivalent flow values are then used to recalculate the corresponding equivalent water level (EWL) values against the benchmark levels every ten years. The EWL consequently contains the following definition: “The equivalent water level (EWL) is the water level occurring along the Rhine at an equivalent water flow falling below the long-term average for 20 days [per year]”.
    •  

      TABLE 1: HYDRAULIC PARAMETERS FOR IMPORTANT RHINE GAUGE STATIONS *

      Gauge stationGuaranteed navigation channel depth Equivalent water level 2022
      Tiel (Waal, NL)280 cm255 cm
      Nijmegen (Waal, NL)280 cm516 cm
      IJsselkop (Nederrijn, NL)280 cm683 cm
      Lobith (Lower Rhine, NL)280 cm733 cm
      Emmerich (Lower Rhine, DE)280 cm74 cm
      Duisburg-Ruhrort (Lower Rhine, DE)280 cm227 cm
      Cologne (Lower Rhine, DE)250 cm139 cm
      Kaub (Middle Rhine, DE)190 cm77 cm
      Oestrich (Middle Rhine, DE)190 cm92 cm
      Maxau (Upper Rhine, DE)210 cm372 cm
      Basel (Upper Rhine, CH)300 cm501 cm

      Sources: German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), Rijkswaterstaat
      * Waal and Nederrijn are two branches of the Rhine delta in the Netherlands.

       

    • For these 11 Rhine gauges, daily water level data were collected and analysed.
    •  

       

    • The figures show the number of days below the equivalent water level for the above-mentioned gauge stations.
    •  
      Number of days below Equivalent Water Level (EWL)
       

      Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), provided by the German Federal Office for Hydrology (BfG), and from Rijkswaterstaat
       

    • Between 2015 and 2023, the two years with the highest number of low water days were 2018 and 2022. Although the summer of 2022 experienced days of extreme heat and a period of rapidly decreasing water levels, the 2022 low water period (July to August 2022) did not last as long as it did in 2018 (August to November 2018). This explains the smaller number of days below the equivalent water level in 2022, compared to the year 2018.
    •  
      Low water levels and low flows from a historical perspective
       

    • For Kaub, on the Middle Rhine, data on the number of days with a discharge of less than 783 m3 per second (which is the equivalent flow value, corresponding to the equivalent water level of 78 cm at Kaub) are modelled statistically dating back to the year 1820. The aim of this procedure is to compare today’s flows with the past. The resulting values show that years of severe low water periods also occurred in the past. However, their impact on transport volumes was not as strong as in 2018 and 2022, due to smaller vessels with a lower draught, different logistics (less ‘Just-in-time’) and less competition from other transport modes.
    •  

      FIGURE 3: NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR WITH A DISCHARGE Q < 783 M3/S * AT KAUB, MIDDLE RHINE INCLUDING 30-YEAR-MOVING AVERAGE


      Source: German Federal Office for Hydrology (BfG)
      * Corresponds to a water level of 78 cm (equivalent water level).

       

    DANUBE GAUGE STATIONS

    • The reference low water level of the Danube is known as ‘Low Navigable Water Level (LNWL)’. It is defined as the water level exceeded on 94.0% of days in a year (i.e. on 343 days) during ice-free periods with a reference to a 30-year observation period (1981 – 2010).23
    • Based on this definition, equivalent calculations can be carried out for the Danube.
    •  

       

      • For 11 important gauge stations on the Danube, daily water level data were collected and analysed. The figures below show the number of days per year on which the actual water levels fell below the Low Navigable Water level.
      •  
        Number of days below the Low Navigable Water Level (LNWL)
         

        Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), provided by the German Federal Office for Hydrology (BfG), data from the Federal State of Lower Austria and the Danube Commission
        For Calafat and Calarasi, data for 2023 were not available.

         

      FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION

        CBS FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR THE RHINE REGION

        • Statistics Netherlands (CBS) collects freight rate data from a panel of Dutch IWT companies. The price levels are based on fixed routes for which questionnaires are sent out twice a quarter. They comprise the sailing costs including fuel and low water surcharges and exclude cargo handling costs. In 2023, taking into account all market segments together, freight rates decreased on average by -11.8% compared to 2022 (while they had increased by +42.5% between 2021 and 2022).
        • More specifically, dry bulk and container freight rates had been following an increasing path since the third quarter of 2020, as the underlying transport demand recovered from the pandemic. In 2023, while container freight rates continued overall to follow this upwards trend, yet with less intensity between 2022 and 2023 as a result of a decreasing demand, dry cargo freight rates strongly decreased in 2023 on average (-21.4% in regard to the spot market and -10.6% in regard to contract prices). This decrease in dry cargo freight rates can be explained by the decrease in dry bulk transport in 2023 compared to 2022. More specifically, the temporary driving effect of extra coal demand in inland shipping which was observed in 2022 came to an end in 2023.
        • Liquid cargo freight rates followed a decreasing trend between 2019 and 2021, stemming from a weaker development of transport demand compared to dry cargo24 and a stronger expansion of its supply side, in terms of a higher newbuilding rate and thus more additional cargo carrying capacity. However, liquid cargo freight rates have been increasing overall since Q4 2021 driven by the effects of low waters and an overall increase in demand, despite a difficult year for the chemical sector. On average, liquid cargo freight rates increased in 2023 compared to 2022 (+3.9%).25
        • As for containers, freight rates have been increasing on a yearly average since 2021 (+2.2% between 2023 and 2022; +23.6% between 2022 and 2021).
        •  

          FIGURE 4: CBS FREIGHT RATE INDICES PER QUARTER (2015 = 100) *


          Source: CBS, Table 84050NED
          * The prices of established routes are observed twice a quarter and include fuel and low water surcharges but exclude loading and unloading. The time of observation is in the middle and at the end of the quarter. All prices are nominal prices.

         

        LIQUID CARGO FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION

        • Figure 5 illustrates the liquid cargo spot market freight rate index for gasoil for ARA-Rhine transport (yearly averages). Since 2010 an overall positive trend is seen. To some extent, this positive trend was driven by low water periods, which occurred in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022.
        • The observed trends are almost identical for the three different geographical entities shown – two stretches of the Rhine (Lower Rhine, Upper Rhine) and the Main affluent.
        •  

          FIGURE 5: INSIGHTS GLOBAL FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORT IN THE ARA-RHINE AREA (2015 = 100)


          Source: CCNR calculation based on Insights Global
           
           

      CITBO LIQUID CARGO FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR THE FARAG REGION

        Geography of the CITBO transport activity and product segment structure
         

      • For the liquid cargo transport within the extended ARA region, between Amsterdam, Antwerp, Flushing, Ghent, Rotterdam and Terneuzen, a dataset on spot market freight rates provided by the tanker barge cooperation CITBO26 was analysed. The shares of the different product groups within cargo transported were as follows:
        – Gasoil and components: share of 41% in 2023 (38% in 2022)
        – Gasoline and components: share of 37% in 2023 (29% in 2022)
        – Biodiesel: share of 18% in 2023 (26% in 2022)
        – Chemicals: share of 2% in 2023 (6% in 2022)
        – Heavy products: share of 0.2% in 2023 (1% in 2022)
      • Of all liquid cargo transport in 2023, the five ports with the highest shares are represented as follows:
        – in loaded cargo, volumes accounted for 80% and,
        – in unloaded cargo, volumes accounted for 67%.
      •  

        Port of loadingCargo volume - share in %Port of unloadingCargo volume - share in %
        Antwerp34% (in 2022: 35%)Rotterdam21% (in 2022: 28%)
        Rotterdam28% (in 2022: 27%)Amsterdam18% (in 2022: 12%)
        Amsterdam8% (in 2022: 8%)Antwerp14% (in 2022: 17%)
        Flushing5% (in 2022: 6%)Ghent7% (in 2022: 6%)
        Biowanze5% (in 2022: 4%) Wandre7% (in 2022: 4%)
        All other ports20% (in 2022: 19%)All other ports33% (in 2021: 34%)

         

      • The locations of other ports of loading and unloading are mainly found in Belgium and in the Netherlands, but locations in France, Germany and Switzerland also appear.
      •  
        Results of the calculation of freight rate indices (spot market data)
         

      • A freight rate index was calculated for the four main different product segments.27 From these indices, it can be observed that low waters (in 2018 and 2022) had a strong influence on freight rates for all product segments. In the year 2023, spot market freight rates kept a high level, despite the fact that water levels were not as low as in 2022.
      •  

        FIGURES 6, 7, 8 AND 9: CITBO FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR LIQUID CARGO SEGMENTS (INDEX Q3 2017 = 100)





        Source: CCNR analysis based on spot market data provided by CITBO
         
        Influencing factors for CITBO freight rates
         

      • Longer journey time leads to higher costs, thereby contributing to higher freight rates. The longest journey time observed is for the transport of gasoline. In 2023, the average duration of trips was 30 hours for gasoline and components, compared to 19 hours for gasoil and components, 17 hours for chemicals and 22 hours for biodiesel. The strong influence the journey time for trips has on the level of freight rates is confirmed in Figure 10.
      •  

        FIGURE 10: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN JOURNEY TIME OF A TRIP AND FREIGHT RATE INDEX VALUE (INDEX Q3 2017 = 100) *



        Source: CCNR analysis based on spot market data provided by CITBO
        * The dots in the graphs represent the combination of average journey time and average freight rate index for certain months between July 2017 and December 2023.

         

      • Additional influencing factors for freight rates exist. Overall, it can be observed that chemicals have by far the highest spot market freight rates in absolute terms (€/tonne), followed by gasoline and its components. The high freight rate levels for chemical transports cannot be explained by journey times, as these are rather low for chemicals (see above). The high freight rates can be attributed primarily to the relatively expensive vessels for chemical transport, often with stainless steel tanks, as well as the high safety standards and high cleaning costs. The significant demand on the shippers’ side to transport their chemicals by IWW therefore contributes to higher freight rate levels for chemical products within the CITBO database.
      •  
        CITBO time charter rates
         

      • As well as the spot market rates, the CITBO data also contain time charter data. These data allow to calculate an index of average time charter rates, based on the rental prices of vessels per day. The quarterly index of average rental prices per day is shown in the following graph. All product segments are taken into account. The index shows an increase at the end of 2022 due to the low water period. In 2023, time charter rates were lower than in 2022, but remained at a higher level than before the 2022 low water period.
      •  

        FIGURE 11: CITBO TIME CHARTER RATES (INDEX Q2 2017 = 100)


        Source: CCNR analysis based on CITBO data