1. MACROECONOMIC CONTEXT AND OUTLOOK

• According to the European Commission, economic growth in the European Union reached +1.0% in 2024. Growth in private consumption was a decisive factor here. Private consumption was fuelled by solid increases in disposable income, as nominal wages recovered the purchasing power lost to surging inflation. The GDP forecast for the EU for 2025 points to a growth rate of +1.1%, and +1.5% for 2026. A reduction in EU-US trade tensions, along with renewed momentum in trade negotiations with other countries and regions, would support EU growth.
• Global trade saw a modest recovery in 2024, expanding by +3.3%, yet remained below pre-pandemic levels. New geopolitical tensions and changing trade patterns, such as the shift towards “friendshoring,” have added uncertainty to supply chains. In Europe, container traffic briefly recovered, but persistent disruptions in the Red Sea and new protectionist measures continued to pressure maritime routes and costs.
• Commodity markets largely stabilised, with oil and gas prices falling and offering some relief to inland waterway transport (IWT), while agriculture and metal markets showed volatility due to weather events and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite these mixed developments, Rhine and Danube navigation saw signs of recovery in 2024. Still, the sector faces challenges such as rising operating costs and falling demand in key areas like coal and construction.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

• This chapter draws on recent analyses from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook, the IMF Regional Economic Outlook – Europe, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Economic Outlook, the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) Global Trade Update of December 2024 and the Spring 2025 Economic Forecast of the European Commission (EC) to outline the macroeconomic context and its implications for inland waterway transport.
• The global economy in 2024 presented a mixed picture, balancing signs of stabilisation with new emerging challenges. After two years of elevated inflation and geopolitical disruptions, inflation finally started to fall in many countries, providing some relief to households and allowing policymakers to adjust some of the policies. Labour markets, although still under pressure, started to ease slightly, and wage growth slowed in several advanced economies.¹ Nevertheless, new economic shocks – especially the anticipation of potential new U.S. tariffs in late 2024 – revived uncertainty in trade and financial markets, causing volatility and weakening economic confidence. As a result, investor confidence declined, and economic growth slowed across many regions.
• According to the IMF and the OECD, global GDP growth reached +3.3% in 2024. While this is a solid performance given recent challenges, it still falls short when compared to the pre-pandemic trend of around +3.8%. For 2025, the global growth rate is expected to slow down to +2.8%, as higher interest rates, limited government expenditure, and the ongoing trade tensions remain a challenge. A modest rebound to +3.0% is projected in 2026, but that path remains uncertain and depends on how key risks such as persistent inflation, renewed geopolitical tensions, and policy uncertainty play out.
• According to the EC, economic growth in the European Union reached +1.0% in 2024. Growth in private consumption was hereby a decisive factor. Private consumption was fuelled by solid increases in disposable income, as nominal wages recovered the purchasing power lost to surging inflation. The GDP forecast for the EU for 2025 points to a growth rate of +1.1%, and +1.5% for 2026. A reduction in EU-US trade tensions, along with renewed momentum in trade negotiations with other countries and regions, could support EU growth.
• Tight labour markets and improving productivity are set to drive further wage growth. After increasing by +5.3% in 2024, growth in nominal compensation per employee is expected to slow down to +3.9% in 2025 and +3.0% in 2026. On all counts, in 2025, real wages in the EU should fully recover the purchasing power losses accrued since mid-2021. The wage growth, combined with the decelerating inflation, supports a further increase in household gross disposable income.
• The reduction in inflation varied across countries. While headline inflation fell in most advanced economies and moved closer to the European Central Bank (ECB) targets, core inflation, particularly in the services sector, remained high due to strong wage pressures. This has made it harder for central banks to fully move away from the tightening monetary cycles of 2022–2023. At the same time, many governments face rising debt service costs (covering debt repayment costs and the interests linked to the debt itself) and reduced fiscal flexibility, as a consequence of higher interest rates and significant public borrowing during the pandemic and subsequent crises.
• According to the EC, the inflation rate in the EU in 2024 was 2.6%. The forecast for 2025 points to 2.3%, and for 2026 a rate of 1.9% is foreseen. There are two main factors which exert a downward pressure on EU inflation. One main factor is significantly lower energy commodity prices, and a second factor is the appreciation of the euro, which makes imports of goods less expensive for EU consumers. However, an escalation of trade tensions between the EU and the US could depress GDP and rekindle inflationary pressures.
• The recovery path differs significantly across regions. The United States exceeded expectations in 2024, supported by strong consumer spending and investment, especially in the technology and transport sectors. However, signs of moderation emerged towards the end of the year, as consumption slowed and business confidence was affected by the uncertainty related to the announcement of new tariffs. In contrast, the euro area showed a more fragile and uneven recovery, with modest growth driven largely by the services sector, while industrial production and private investment remained weak. Countries which have large manufacturing sectors, for example, Germany and Austria, were particularly affected by weak external demand, particularly from China. Meanwhile, China’s economy struggled with internal imbalances, including weak domestic consumption, despite attempts to stimulate growth through public investment. In contrast, India and several ASEAN² countries recorded stronger growth, supported by demographic trends, consumption, and investment in infrastructure.
• Looking at the bigger picture, productivity growth has remained weak in most regions in 2024. Only a few advanced economies – notably the United States – managed to maintain productivity growth, supported by a flexible labour market and higher capital investment. In other regions, however, long-term growth continues to be constrained by slow innovation, ageing populations and a general reluctance to invest. In summary, while 2024 marked a phase of relative stabilisation, the global economy entered 2025 still facing significant vulnerabilities which suggest that economic recovery will remain slow, uneven, and highly sensitive to future shocks.

FIGURE 1: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GDP, CONSTANT PRICES


Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, Outlook from April 2025
 
 

TRADE

• The recovery of global trade in 2024 was modest and uneven. After a difficult year 2023, marked by shipping disruptions and weak demand, trade volumes began to increase in the first half of the year. This rebound was largely driven by a stronger demand for US goods and an increase in technology exports from several Asian economies, such as China and the ASEAN-5. But this recovery was hindered by new geopolitical disruptions, changes in supply chains and the continuation of protectionist trade measures.
• According to the UNCTAD Global Trade Update of December 2024, global trade expanded by around +3.3% in 2024, a slower pace than the pre-pandemic average of +4.9%, and forecasts for 2025 remain similarly modest. EU exports are expected to grow by a modest +0.7% in 2025 and +2.1% in 2026. The pace of recovery has been uneven across different regions and industries. While e-commerce and air freight saw relatively strong growth, traditional goods shipping and industrial cargo flows were more limited, highlighting the challenges some sectors still face.
• One of the key trends of 2024 was the further fragmentation of global trade. More countries are focusing on trading with allies or politically aligned partners, a shift known as “friendshoring.” This was especially clear in the growing divide between the USA and China, with both countries reducing trade with each other, bringing key industries back home, and imposing stricter rules on sensitive exports and investments.³ As a result, businesses are facing more uncertainty, disrupted investment plans, and global supply chains are becoming more vulnerable to sudden policy changes. In the case of Europe, it faced several shocks in 2024. Following the disruption in Red Sea shipping lanes in late 2023, many maritime routes shifted southward around the Cape of Good Hope, increasing delivery times and costs. While container throughput in European ports rebounded in early 2024, this recovery may prove temporary. It coincides with both altered shipping routes and early signs of economic improvement, but the underlying fragility of global trade flows and regional geopolitical tensions persist. Figure 2 illustrates how successive crises since 2000 have impacted trade flows and shows that no major increase in trade volume is expected in the near future.

FIGURE 2: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN VOLUME OF IMPORTS AND EXPORTS





Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, Outlook from April 2025
 
 

COMMODITY PRICES

• In 2024, commodity markets continued to stabilise after the significant disruptions and price volatility that marked the years 2021 and 2022. While the pace of change varied across sectors, a general normalisation trend brought greater predictability to many markets. For IWT, particularly along the Rhine and Danube corridors, this shift offered a mixed but overall positive outlook.

CRUDE OIL

• Crude oil prices saw a notable decline between August 2024 and March 2025, dropping by -9.7%. According to the IMF’s latest projections, prices are expected to continue falling, averaging $66.9 per barrel in 2025, down from $79.17 in 2024, and decreasing further to $62.4 in 2026.⁴ Several factors are behind this trend. On the supply side, there has been strong production growth in countries outside of OPEC+, and earlier supply cuts are slowly being reversed. Together, these factors have pushed oil prices down. At the same time, geopolitical risks – such as sanctions on Russian oil – have had only a limited impact on overall global supply.

 

• Demand side factors have also played a role, particularly weaker consumption in key markets such as China, where the growing adoption of electric vehicles is starting to reduce oil demand. With supply expected to outpace demand, at least until end 2026, the IMF characterises the market outlook as mostly negative. For industries like inland waterway transport, which rely heavily on fuel, this ongoing decline in oil prices offers some relief. After the intense volatility of recent years, the current oil market environment is offering more stability and predictability for industries that highly depend on energy.

FIGURE 3: COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (2016 = 100)


Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, Outlook from April 2025
 

GAS AND COAL

• Between August 2024 and March 2025, natural gas prices reversed after six months experiencing price increases. As oil prices started to decline, natural gas prices moved in the same direction. However, prices still saw a rise in Europe, particularly at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF)⁵ trading hub, where prices went up by +7.7%. While this was above the historical average, it remained below the peak in 2022. The rise in prices was caused by various supply disruptions. For instance, in January 2025, gas supplies from Russia to Europe through Ukraine were stopped, lifting prices upwards. Meanwhile, in the USA, Henry Hub (used as the reference for spot and future natural gas prices for the north American market) prices doubled due to a combination of severe weather and increased demand for gas exports. However, in Asia, prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) remained largely stable due to weak demand from China.
• After the USA tariff announcement on 2 April 2025, gas prices began to decline as concerns about the future demand for energy emerged. This outlook carries certain risks, as shifts in geopolitical factors and changes in global energy demand could affect prices, though the overall trend suggests lower prices over the coming years.⁶

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND FOODSTUFF

• Agricultural commodity prices increased between August 2024 and March 2025, mainly due to unfavourable weather conditions that affected crop production in several regions including Brazil, India and other parts of Asia. The IMF’s food and beverages price index increased by +3.6% during this period, with beverage prices – especially coffee – driving much of the increase. Coffee prices surged by +33.8%, reaching record levels in February. In contrast, rice prices dropped by -26% thanks to improved growing conditions in India and other parts of Asia. Cereal prices rose only slightly – by +0.6% – as fears around wheat and corn yields began to ease. Additionally, new trade restrictions introduced in April 2025 had mixed impacts on agricultural prices: prices for crops that are sensitive to income changes and global trade, such as coffee and soybeans, declined sharply, while staple grains like wheat and corn remained more stable. Looking ahead, agricultural markets face risks in both directions, with potential price increases from trade disruptions and extreme weather, and possible declines if harvests are stronger than expected.

METALS

• The IMF’s metals price index increased by +11.2% between August 2024 and March 2025. This growth was largely due to higher prices for key metals such as gold, aluminium, and copper. Aluminium and copper saw the most significant increases among base metals, with prices increasing by +12.7% and +8.4% respectively due to supply disruptions and strong demand, partly driven by buyers rushing purchases ahead of expected tariffs. However, this trend shifted sharply in early April 2025 when escalating trade tensions triggered a broad decline in industrial metal prices. Market forecasts now suggest that prices for aluminium, copper, and iron ore are expected to fall by the end of 2026. On the other hand, gold prices have remained strong and even reached new records – close to $3,000 per ounce – as investors turn to it as a safe option during times of global tension and economic uncertainty.

ECONOMIC SENTIMENT – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

• Consumer confidence provides an indication of developments in households’ consumption and savings. An indicator above 100 in the Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) signals a boost in consumers’ confidence in the future economic situation and points to consumers being more inclined to spend money. Values below 100 indicate a pessimistic attitude towards future developments in the economy, possibly resulting in a tendency to save more and consume less. Consumer confidence has an impact on the transport of containers, with high consumer confidence leading to more container transport.
• In 2024 the ESI remained below its long-term average, reflecting low economic sentiment across the EU. Specifically, in April 2025, the ESI declined by 1.4 points in both the EU and the euro area, reaching 94.4 and 93.6 respectively. This downward trend suggests that consumers are cautious about the economic outlook, potentially leading to reduced spending and investment. The decline in sentiment is attributed to various factors, including geopolitical uncertainties and concerns over future economic developments.

MAIN CONSEQUENCES FOR RHINE AND DANUBE NAVIGATION IN BRIEF

• In 2024 and early 2025, Rhine and Danube navigation showed signs of recovery after the sharp declines of the previous two years. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and structural shifts in global trade, transport volumes picked up slightly, supported by declining inflation. The inland waterway sector also faced persistent challenges from high operating costs, a weak construction sector, and declining coal transport due to a coal phase-out, notably in Germany. Commodity markets showed greater stability overall, with falling crude oil prices offering some relief to fuel-intensive transport modes such as inland navigation. However, persistent volatility in gas and agricultural prices, together with a recent drop in metal prices triggered by new trade tensions, continue to pose risks for cargo demand. There is an effect of gas prices on transport demand in inland navigation due to the impact of gas prices on chemical production. Lower gas prices lead to an improvement of the competitive position of the European chemical industry. This triggers more transport of chemicals.