2. FREIGHT TRANSPORT ON INLAND WATERWAYS - CCNR

• In 2024, 473.3 million tonnes of goods were transported on EU-27 waterways (+1.0% compared to 2023) and the IWT transport performance reached 121.6 billion TKM (+4.5%). In terms of inland navigation for Europe (EU-27 plus Switzerland, Serbia and the Republic of Moldova), freight transport performance increased by +4.3% compared to 2023, reaching 126.0 billion TKM.
• Cargo transport on the entire Rhine (from Basel to the North Sea) amounted to 284.5 million tonnes in 2024, compared to 276.5 million tonnes in 2023 and 292.3 million tonnes in 2022; the result in 2024 was 2.6 % higher than in 2023, even though the overall trend remains downward orientated. The strongest growth was registered for agribulk and food products (+6.8%) and for chemicals (+6.7%). Negative growth rates were observed, particularly for coal (-13.3%) and for sands, stones and gravel (-1.8%). Container transport on the Rhine grew by +2.0% compared to 2023, but its level is still well below the values in the years 2016-2021.
• On the Upper and Middle Danube, transport volumes increased overall in 2024. The Lower Danube region, in particular the two canals connecting the Danube to the Black Sea, recorded a strong decrease in goods transport. The main reason for this decline lies in a shift from grain shipments (wheat, corn, barley) from the Ukrainian Danube ports back to the Ukrainian seaports of Odessa, Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk which have resumed some of their activities.

TRANSPORT IN EUROPE AND BY COUNTRY

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON BETWEEN 2023 AND 2024 (IN MILLION TKM) *

Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo] and [iww_go_qnave], OECD (Switzerland and the Republic of Moldova), UK Department for Transport
* The share of IWT performance in Europe in 2024 for Italy and the UK is not available. For Ukraine, data are only available until 2021.

FIGURE 1: IWT TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE BETWEEN 2017 AND 2024 IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN BILLION TKM) *

Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo] (for most countries) and [iww_go_qnave] (Serbia), OECD (Switzerland, Ukraine and the Republic of Moldova), UK Department for Transport (UK)
* The values for Italy (2024), Finland (2017, 2018), the United Kingdom (2024) and Serbia (2017) are not available. For Ukraine, data are only available until 2021. The Danube Commission reported a decrease of -45.7% in terms of waterside cargo handled in Ukrainian ports in 2024 compared to 2023. The reason is the reopening of the export route by sea for Ukrainian grain.
Note: for the UK, IWT is defined as non-seagoing traffic which takes place entirely within inland waters and river-sea transport (seagoing vessels navigating partly at sea and on inland waterways). In this figure, for the sake of consistency with the methodology used by Eurostat, only the transport performance related to the traffic taking place wholly within inland waters is reported (amounting to 71 million TKM in 2023). However, it is worth noting that most of IWT in the UK consists of river-sea transport (amounting to almost 1.3 billion TKM in 2023). Overall, the IWT performance in the UK is reported to reach almost 1.4 billion TKM in 2023.

In 2024, in terms of inland navigation for Europe (EU-27 plus Switzerland, Serbia and Republic of Moldova, and excluding Ukraine), freight transport performance increased by +4.3% compared to 2023, reaching 126.0 billion TKM. Rhine countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Switzerland) accounted for 78.8% of total inland waterway transport performance in the EU-27, plus Switzerland, Serbia and the Republic of Moldova. The share for Danube countries was 20.9% (excluding Ukraine).

FIGURE 2: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN 2024 (IN BILLION TKM) *

Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo] (for most countries) and [iww_go_qnave] (Serbia), OECD (Switzerland and the Republic of Moldova)
* Data for Ukraine, the UK and Italy were not available for 2024.

In 2024, 473.3 million tonnes of goods were transported on EU-27 waterways (+1.0% compared to 2023). From the total inland waterway transport performance in the EU-27 in 2024, which amounted to around 121.62 billion TKM, an increase of +4.5% compared to 2023 (EU-27 only), 75.7% represented transport that crossed a border in one way or another – whether it be in the form of export, import or transit traffic. Transit traffic taken separately had a share of 20.8% and export and import traffic had a share of 27.9% and 27.0%, respectively.

FIGURE 3: YEARLY INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN THE EU-27 (IN BILLION TKM) *

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo]
* EU-27 according to member countries in 2024

TRANSPORT BY MAIN EUROPEAN RIVER BASINS

Sources: Figures for the Po are from 2022, figures for the Thames are from 2023, the others are from 2024. CCNR analysis based on Destatis, VNF, Eurostat [iww_go_atygo], UK Department for Transport.

RHINE BASIN

Transport volume and transport performance on the entire Rhine (from Basel to the North Sea)

Previously, this chapter focused solely on volumes transported along the Traditional Rhine, namely the Rhine from Basel to the German-Dutch border. From now onwards, reporting includes transport volumes on the entire Rhine from Basel to the North Sea. In addition, in 2024, more refined data provided by the VNF on the parts of the Upper Rhine regarding traffic between French Rhine ports, and between Swiss and French Rhine ports, were incorporated for the years 2014 onwards.⁷ When calculating the total volume of goods transported on the entire Rhine, all steps were taken to avoid duplication in counting.
Cargo transport on the entire Rhine (from Basel to the North Sea) amounted to 284.5 million tonnes in 2024, compared to 276.5 million tonnes in 2023 and 292.3 in 2022. The result in 2024 was 2.6% higher than in 2023, even though the overall trends remain downward orientated.
– The Traditional Rhine (from Basel to the German-Dutch border) amounted to 150.1 million tonnes in 2024, compared to 146.7 million tonnes in 2023 and 156.2 million tonnes in 2022; the result in 2024 was 2.3% above the result of 2023.
– The Lower Rhine in the Netherlands (from the German-Dutch border to the North Sea, including the link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link⁸) amounted to 234.0 million tonnes, compared to 227.2 million tonnes in 2023 and 237.8 million tonnes in 2022; the result in 2024 was 3.0% above the result of 2023.
When calculating the total volume of goods transported on the entire Rhine, all steps were taken to avoid the double counting of volumes transported on both stretches. This is why the volumes on these two stretches cannot simply be added together, as certain volumes are transported on both stretches.

FIGURE 4: FREIGHT TRANSPORT VOLUME (IN MILLION TONNES) ON THE ENTIRE RHINE *

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Destatis, VNF (data for the Traditional Rhine) and Rijkswaterstaat (data for the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands)
* In earlier reports, only the volumes transported on the Traditional Rhine, namely the Rhine from Basel to the German-Dutch border, were reported on. Now, data also cover transport volumes on the entire Rhine from Basel to the North Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link). Note that the traditional Rhine data capture all cargo transport on the Rhine in Germany as well as more refined data for the parts of the Upper Rhine reflecting traffic between French Rhine ports and between Swiss and French Rhine ports. Note that the latter represent less than 1% of all transport volumes on the entire Rhine.

FIGURE 5: TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE (IN MILLION TKM) ON THE ENTIRE RHINE

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Destatis, VNF (data for the Traditional Rhine) and Rijkswaterstaat (data for the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands)

Transport activity at different Rhine stretches, on Rhine affluents and on canals linked to the Rhine

In terms of geographical structure, transport demand is higher on the Lower Rhine compared to the Middle and Upper Rhine, as illustrated in figure 6. This higher transport demand on the Lower Rhine can be explained for several reasons:
– Dense delta network in the Netherlands and inter-port traffic (Rotterdam, Antwerp, Amsterdam, North Sea Port) connecting important petroleum and chemical industrial hubs as well as a high number of container terminals.
– Inter-port traffic between Rotterdam, Antwerp and Amsterdam, Flushing, Gent. This inter-port traffic connects important industrial clusters and container hubs.
– Important steel and petroleum industrial hub in the Lower Rhine region in Germany.
– High fairway depths on the Lower Rhine.

FIGURE 6: FREIGHT TRANSPORT ON THE DIFFERENT STRETCHES OF THE RHINE (IN MILLION TONNES) *

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Destatis (Lower, Middle and Upper Rhine in Germany), VNF (Upper Rhine in France and Switzerland) and Rijkswaterstaat (Lower Rhine delta in the Netherlands)
* To avoid double counting, the volumes on the different Rhine stretches cannot be added together, as certain volumes are present on several Rhine stretches.

Rhine transport by cargo segment

In terms of global cargo transport volumes for the entire Rhine, the segments of mineral oil products, chemicals and sand, stones, gravel, were the top three contributors in 2022, 2023 and 2024.

FIGURE 7: **CARGO TRANSPORT ON THE ENTIRE RHINE * BY TYPE OF GOODS (IN MILLION TONNES)

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Destatis, VNF and Rijkswaterstaat
* Entire Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the North-Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)
** For containers: net-weight of goods in containers

Overall, in the year 2024, transport of goods on the entire Rhine was positively affected by factors such as a recovery of aggregate demand due to declining inflation and an indexation of wages. Both trends stimulated private consumption. The Russian war of aggression against Ukraine and other geopolitical conflicts were still felt, but the impact of these factors was less pronounced than in earlier years.
Liquid bulk showed a transport demand growth of +5.5% for mineral oil products and +6.7% for chemicals. Within the transport of mineral oil products, a structural shift is observed. The transport to the hinterland is stagnating or declining over the long term, due to less demand, while transport towards the ARA ports⁹ is increasing. The reason for this increase is an imbalance between refinery production of fuels and fuel demand in western Europe. Due to the long-term decrease in fuel demand, refinery output is more and more orientated towards exports to overseas destinations via ARA seaports. Indeed, for the refineries in the Dutch and German Rhine region, an increase in transport towards ARA ports can be noticed. From the ARA ports, fuels are exported to overseas destinations.
The transport of chemical products showed a limited recovery compared to the weak year of 2023. However, the level of transport demand in 2024 was still 3% below the multi-annual average of the period 2019-2021 (pre-Ukrainian war period). This difference in transport demand is nonetheless rather small, when compared to the development of chemical production. Indeed, the level of chemical production in Germany in 2024 was -16% lower than the average German chemical production in 2019-2021.¹⁰ For the Netherlands, another important producing country for chemicals, the difference was of -13% and -7% for Belgium. The chemical industry continues to suffer from high energy prices and a deteriorating competitiveness.
The largest dry cargo segment is the transport of sand, stones, gravel and construction material. This segment has shown a rather low level over the last two years (see figure 7). One main reason is the weak development of the construction activity in most Rhine countries. According to Eurostat figures,¹¹ the output of the entire construction sector in Germany was -8.8% lower in 2024 compared to 2020 and since 2020, a negative linear trend has been observed. The trend in France has also been negative and in Belgium, the average production has also been weaker in recent years. Only in the Netherlands has a positive trend in construction activity between 2015 and 2024 been observed (increase of +42% between 2015 and 2024).
Maritime statistics are representative of world trade, as 75% of all world trade is carried out by seaborne trade.¹² From this perspective, it is important to refer to the maritime container transport in the Port of Rotterdam, which showed a +2.5% increase in 2024 compared to 2023 (based on tonnes).¹³ The main reasons for this are higher consumer incomes due to lower inflation and wage indexation. This increase was the first in three years when maritime container transport followed a decreasing trend. The reason for the drop in container throughput before 2024 was the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine, which caused an increase in European energy prices, reducing purchasing power, and consequently, consumption. This drop in volume came to an end in 2024. The main growth drivers were consumer goods and food products. Similarly, barge transport of containers on the Rhine registered a growth rate of +2.0% in 2024, after two years of decreasing container transport.
In order to evaluate the influencing factors for container transport on the Rhine, two calculations are made. The first one compares the development of maritime container transport in the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp with the development of container transport on the Rhine (both series are based on tonnes) since 2019 (Index Container transport). The second calculation establishes the year-on-year growth rate of maritime container transport in Rotterdam and Antwerp and the year-on-year growth rate of container transport on the Rhine.
Looking at the two charts, it is clear that both diagrammes illustrate that Rhine container transport is, to a large extent, dependent upon maritime container throughput in Rotterdam and Antwerp. However, in 2022 and 2023, a certain divergence between the two variables occurred. This can be seen in both graphs. In the left graph, the index of container transport on the Rhine dropped below the index of container transport in the ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp in the years 2023 and 2024. In the right graph, the growth rate of container transport on the Rhine dropped below the growth rate of container transport in the two maritime ports. This divergence can be attributed to the low water period in 2022, which played an important role both in 2022 and in 2023. In 2023, despite normal water levels, a divergence could be observed, due to a loss of market shares of the Rhine within container transport. An additional reason for the drop in container transport on the Rhine in 2022 was the impact of Germany’s economic downturn which certainly also contributed to this negative growth rate. In 2024, the growth rates of container transport on the Rhine caught up again to a large extent in the two maritime ports.
Altogether, the two diagrammes show a combined influence of, on the one hand, maritime container throughput in the seaports of Rotterdam and Antwerp, and on the other hand, water level conditions on the performance of barge transport of containers on the Rhine.

FIGURE 8: COMPARISON BETWEEN CONTAINER TRANSPORT ON THE RHINE AND MARITIME CONTAINER THROUGHPUT IN THE PORT OF ROTTERDAM AND IN THE PORT OF ANTWERP

Sources: CCNR calculation based on Destatis, Rijkswaterstaat, Port of Antwerp and Port of Rotterdam data

The transport of agribulk and food products showed a strong growth rate with an increase of +6.8%, despite rather weak harvest results in France and Germany. The development of this product category is less predictable, as weak harvest results can be compensated by more imports of grain.
While the transport of iron ore stagnated, the transport of metals showed a growth rate of +3.4%. Overall, both product categories show neither an increasing nor a decreasing trend over time, but a stable development. With high tariffs imposed by the United States on steel products, there is a risk of a decrease in European steel production in the near future.
It can also be observed that there was no boom in coal transport in 2024, unlike in 2021 and 2022. The reason was the drop in demand for coal in the energy sector. The decline in coal transport is the main factor of contraction in dry cargo shipping. In 2016, the share of coal transport still represented 10.3% of total Rhine transport, and by 2024, the share of coal had dropped down to 6.2%. The decrease in coal demand is currently mainly in the energy sector, but in the future a decrease is also expected in the steel industry, where coking coal is still used for producing steel. Both in Germany and in France, governments have granted substantial subsidies to enable the transition to steel production using hydrogen, which will also reduce coal demand further.¹⁴
An analysis of cargo segments split between the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands and the Traditional Rhine enables a better understanding of the dynamics regarding transport of goods per type of products along the Rhine. The amount of chemicals transported on the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands is far greater than on the Traditional Rhine. Container transport, as well as transport of sand, stones and gravel are also more intense on the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands. For commodities and final products of the steel industry, agribulk as well as coal for the energy sector, the volumes on the Traditional Rhine and on the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands are rather similar.

FIGURE 9: CARGO TRANSPORT ON THE RHINE BY TYPE OF GOODS – SPLIT BETWEEN THE LOWER RHINE IN THE NETHERLANDS AND THE TRADITIONAL RHINE IN 2024 (IN MILLION TONNES) *

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Destatis, VNF and Rijkswaterstaat
* Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the German-Dutch border; Lower Rhine in the Netherlands = Rhine from the German-Dutch border to the North Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)

Along with the overall cargo transport on the Rhine, cargo transport and vessel movements are registered at specific measurement points (locks or border points). The relevant volumes represent the transport activity only at these points and do not represent total Rhine transport. However, this approach reveals existing differences in transport activity between different Rhine stretches, for example between the Lower and the Upper Rhine.

TABLE 1: MEASUREMENT POINTS FOR FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN THE RHINE BASIN

Rhine stretch or affluent	Measurement point	Name	Volume of transport (in million tonnes)			Number of passing cargo vessels
			2022	2023	2024	2022	2023	2024
Lower Rhine	Border DE/NL	Emmerich	124.9	117.9	119.0	105,886	105,809	104,561
Upper Rhine	Border DE/FR	Iffezheim	16.3	16.0	18.0	21,537	19,325	18,600
Wesel-Datteln Canal	Junction with Rhine	Wesel-Friedrichsfeld	17.9	16.2	13.5	16,520	15,255	16,193
Rhein-Herne Canal	Junction with Rhine	Duisburg-Meiderich	12.4	10.7	8.9	15,400	11,079	10,621
Main	Junction with Rhine	Mainz-Kostheim	11.1	11.5	12.1	14,309	13,707	12,575
Moselle	Junction with Rhine	Koblenz	8.6	7.7	8.7	5,373	4,505	4,638
Neckar	Junction with Rhine	Mannheim-Feudenheim	4.5	3.9	4.4	5,484	4,463	4,561

Sources: Destatis, German Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), Moselle Commission

In 2024, transport on the Moselle (at the lock of Koblenz) was 13.5% higher than in 2023. Large goods segments which registered a strong growth were iron ore and scrap metals (+33.9%), agribulk (+7.0%), as well as sands, stones and gravel (+23.3%). Transport on the Moselle increased also at the lock of Apach, which is located on the border between France, Luxembourg and Germany. Transported volumes were 8.8% higher in 2024 than in 2023. In Apach, transport increased in particular for coal (+60.5%), iron and steel (+19.8%), fertilizers (+55.5%). and sands, stones, gravel (+9.4%). Although transport of goods on the Moselle experienced an overall recovery, there was a strong decline in container transport, which suffered a decrease of -48.1% at the lock of Koblenz. The reason for this sharp decline is a modal shift from waterway to rail transport for container transport. This results from one major shipper deciding to transport furniture in containers by rail which had previously been transported by waterway on the Moselle.

Container transport on the Rhine

Based on the calculations made in this chapter, container transport on the Rhine is impacted by a combination of influencing factors. One important factor is maritime container throughput in the seaports (in particular Rotterdam and Antwerp), and the second influencing factor is the effect of low waters.
Measured in million tonnes, the result for container transport on the entire Rhine (from Basel to the North Sea) in 2024 was 2.0% higher than in the year 2023 (+4.1% for the Traditional Rhine and +0.7% for the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands).
In the TEU unit, the rate of increase was +3.8% for the entire Rhine (+4.2% for the Traditional Rhine and +3.6% for the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands).

FIGURE 10: CONTAINER TRANSPORT ON THE TRADITIONAL RHINE AND THE LOWER RHINE IN THE NETHERLANDS (IN MILLION TONNES, NET WEIGHT OF GOODS IN CONTAINERS), 2016-2024 *

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Destatis, VNF and Rijkswaterstaat
* Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the German-Dutch border; Dutch section of the Rhine = Rhine from the German-Dutch border to the North Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)
Note that the Traditional Rhine data capture all cargo transport on the Rhine in Germany, as well as more refined data for the parts of the Upper Rhine, which reflect traffic between French Rhine ports and between Swiss and French Rhine ports.

FIGURE 11: CONTAINER TRANSPORT ON THE TRADITIONAL RHINE AND THE LOWER RHINE IN THE NETHERLANDS (IN MILLION TEU), 2016-2024 *

Sources: CCNR analysis based on Destatis, VNF (only for the period 2020-2024) and Rijkswaterstaat
* Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the German-Dutch border; Dutch section of the Rhine = Rhine from the German-Dutch border to the North Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)

DANUBE BASIN

Transport volume and transport performance on the Danube

Cargo transport on the entire navigable Danube between Kelheim (Germany) and the Black Sea via the Danube-Black Sea Canal and the Sulina Canal has been increasing since 2020 to reach 55.2 million tonnes in 2023, an increase of +36.1% compared to 2022.¹⁵ This increase was mainly driven by the exceptional growth in IWT volumes recorded in Ukraine, especially exports via Ukrainian Danube ports. Transport performance on the Danube (EU Danube countries plus Serbia) reached 26,32 billion TKM in 2024, an increase of +9.4% compared to 2023.

FIGURE 12: FREIGHT TRANSPORT VOLUME (IN MILLION TONNES) AND TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE (IN MILLION TKM) ON THE DANUBE *

Sources: for transport volumes – viadonau, Annual reports on Danube navigation; for transport performance – Eurostat [iww_go_atygo] and [iww_go_qnave] (Serbia)
* Transport performance in IWT in all EU Danube countries.

In the year 2024, the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine continued to have an influence on goods and passenger transport on the Danube. In 2024, a series of Russian airstrikes also targeted the Ukrainian harbour infrastructure on the Danube. As a result of these attacks, infrastructure objects, granaries, warehouses, administrative buildings and residential properties were destroyed in Ukrainian ports on the Danube. Russia’s aggressive actions on the Danube posed direct security threats not only to the Ukrainian Danube port infrastructure, but to all shipping traffic on the lower Danube, including the safety of vessel crews and personnel.
During the year 2024, the Danube Commission continued its active work to maximise support for the export of Ukrainian agricultural products and the import of goods required by Ukraine as part of the EU-Ukraine Danube Solidarity Lanes initiative, adopted in May 2022 to support the European Union’s solidarity measures with Ukraine. In 2024, a total of 8.3 million tonnes of grain, soybeans, rapeseed, sunflower seeds and oil were exported via the Ukrainian Danube ports. In addition, other goods such as iron ore and imports of petroleum products were also handled via these ports.

Danube transport at specific measurement points

The waterway administrations register data at certain borders or measurement points which are described in the following table.

TABLE 2: MEASUREMENT POINTS FOR DANUBE FREIGHT TRANSPORT

Danube stretch	Measurement point	Name	Volume of transport (in million tonnes)
			2022	2023	2024
Upper Danube	Border Germany/Austria	Lock of Jochenstein	2.2	2.1	2.6
Upper Danube	Border Slovakia/Hungary	Lock of Gabčíkovo	4.3	4.0	4.5
Middle Danube	Border Hungary/Croatia/Serbia	Mohács	4.0	3.4	4.0
Danube-Black Sea Canal	No specific point, total volumes on the canal are taken into account	Canal authority CAN¹⁶	17.3	23.4	18.0
Sulina Canal	No specific point, total volumes on the canal are taken into account	Waterway administration AFDJ¹⁷	10.6	16.4	9.9

Source: Danube Commission market observation report

In 2024, there was a rather sharp decline in transport on the two canals flowing to the Black Sea. The reason for this decline is the increase in the volume of grain shipments (wheat, corn, barley) through the ‘Ukrainian Grain Corridor’ formed in autumn 2023 on the basis of the Ukrainian seaports of Odessa, Pivdennyi and Chornomorsk (the ports of “Greater Odessa”). At the same time, the role of Ukrainian Danube ports is not diminishing and is seen as an additional route to support the transport of Ukrainian agricultural exports. Accordingly, ensuring the sustainable operation of the ports of the Ukrainian Danube cluster is a priority.
For the Upper Danube at the lock of Gabčíkovo, 45% of all cargo was transported in pushed convoys. For the Middle Danube at Mohács, the share of pushed convoys within total transport was 68%.
At the border between Slovakia and Hungary, transport demand in 2024 was characterised by stable figures for the upstream transport of iron ore and the downstream transport of metals. In addition, there was an increase in the upstream transport of grain, foodstuff and animal fodder and in the downstream transport of mineral oil products. Overall, transport demand at this border point was 14% higher in 2024 than in 2023.
At the border between Hungary, Croatia and Serbia, cargo transport was characterised by stable figures for the upstream transport of iron ore and the downstream transport of metals. Furthermore, there was an increase in the downstream transport of grain and mineral oil products. Fertilizer transport increased both for the upstream and the downstream direction. For the downstream transport of food products and foodstuff, a strong decrease was registered. Altogether, cargo transport at the Middle Danube increased by +20% in 2024.

Danube transport by cargo segment

The following figure illustrates the development of cargo transport by goods segment on the Middle Danube.

FIGURE 13: GOODS TRANSPORT ON THE MIDDLE DANUBE (IN MILLIONS TONNES) *

Source: Danube Commission market observation report
* At Mohács (southern Hungary – border area with Croatia and Serbia)

CONTAINER TRANSPORT PER COUNTRY IN EUROPE

THE WHOLE EUROPEAN AND GEOGRAPHICAL STRUCTURE

In 2024, with 11.3 billion TKM (+2.5%), more than 5.7 million TEU (+3.6%) and almost 47 million tonnes of cargo in containers (+2.7%), container transport on EU inland waterways (EU-27) represented 9.3% of the total IWW transport performance of approximately 121.6 billion TKM in the EU. Moreover, 99.3% of the container transport performance (TKM) took place in Rhine countries (the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Switzerland, Luxembourg). Container transport on the Danube accounted for 0.5% and container transport in Sweden accounted for 0.2%.

RHINE COUNTRIES

In 2024, container transport measured in million TEU increased by +3.6% in the Netherlands, by +3.2% in Germany and by +5.5% in France, while it regressed by -0.5% in Belgium. In the Netherlands, 41.0 million tonnes of cargo were transported in containers (+3.4%), making this country the frontrunner in inland waterway container transport in Europe.

FIGURE 14: IWW CONTAINER TRANSPORT PER RHINE COUNTRY (IN MILLION TEU) *

Source: Eurostat [iww_go_actygo]
* In Luxembourg, 9,995; 10,750 and 8,518 TEU were recorded for 2022, 2023 and 2024 respectively.

DANUBE COUNTRIES

The two Danube countries with the highest container transport are currently Romania and Hungary. In 2024, 2,229 TEU (-37.2%) were transported on Hungarian inland waterways. In Romania, container transport amounted to 20,515 TEU in 2024 (-40.7%). Considering the weight of cargo, container transport on Hungarian waterways represented 5,000 tonnes in 2024 (-37.5%). In Romania, 237,000 tonnes of cargo were transported in containers (-50.1%). These values illustrate the immense gap in relation to Rhine countries.

FOCUS ON THE SITUATION IN THE RED SEA: IMPACTS FOR THE WORLD TRADE¹⁸ ¹⁹ ²⁰

Since the beginning of 2024, the security situation in the Red Sea has led to the diversion of a very large part of the world’s fleet, particularly maritime container ships, via the Cape of Good Hope in southern Africa to avoid the Suez Canal. Its revenues plunged by -60% last year, representing a loss of $7 billion for the Egyptian government.
One year after the arrival of international and European naval forces in the region to protect shipping, traffic remained 60-70% below its pre-November 2023 level. In the first 11 months of 2024, 174 container ships crossed the Red Sea, compared with 606 in the same period of 2023. In addition to this, capacity measured in TEUs fell by -91%.
Longer sailing distances resulted in a year-on-year increase of around +16% in the number of twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU-miles). The greatest increase in tonne-miles due to the Red Sea situation has been for container ships (+12%), car carriers (+6.7%) and oil product carriers (+4.6%). This put upward pressure on freight and charter rates.
The attacks on navigation in the Red Sea caused an increase in transit times as the diversion via southern Africa added 10 days to the Far East-Europe voyage and a total of 20 days for a round trip. As a consequence, the average delays of container ships worsened from five days in November 2023 to six days in January 2024. This impacted negatively the reliability of ship schedules which decreased from 62% in November 2023 to 52% in January 2024.
Additional costs related to disrupted navigation in the Red Sea must also be highlighted and are of different kinds:
– for shipping companies, such as fuel or insurance costs,
– for shippers, with an increase of +130% of global container shipping freight rates between November 2023 and March 2024,
– for states, the costs of which relate to naval protection operations,
– for the environment as the diversion of ships via South Africa increased greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.
Given the talks on ceasefire between Israel and the Hamas in 2025, there is hope that the stability of the region could be reached again. This would lead to an increase of traffic in the Suez Canal.
In this case, in the short term, supply chains, particularly from Asia to Europe, should shorten considerably. However, this would lead to temporary port and hinterland congestion problems in Europe as more goods than usual would arrive at the same time, some having taken the long route around Africa and others now taking the usual shortcut via the Suez Canal.
Nevertheless, inconclusive talks for a ceasefire would again raise fears that Yemen’s Houthi militant group could renew its threat against commercial ships crossing the Red Sea. In addition to this, the US president’s tariff threats on several trading partners reignited fears of trade wars and global economic decline that could hit shipowners’ earnings. Finally, the conflict between Iran and Israel could lead to disruptions in maritime shipping routes and world trade.
The effects of President Trump’s trade policy to apply tariffs of a minimum of 10% on imports from China and of 25% on goods from Mexico and Canada, from summer 2025 onwards, could indeed have significant impacts on the world trade economy.
Analysts thus predict an increase in average US tariffs of almost +8% by the end of 2026, which should lead to a significant fall in the US share of trade from 21% to 18%. Within this contraction in US trade with the rest of the world, China is likely to lose up to 83% of its sales.
As a result, there could be a potential of 8-12% reduction in transpacific trade flows, translating into a -1.7% fall in world container trade.
As container transport in IWT is closely tied to the dynamics of global trade, disruptions in the Red Sea could continue to exert indirect pressure on IWT, with impacts that could potentially extend into 2025.

INLAND NAVIGATION AND OTHER MODES OF TRANSPORT

FIGURE 15: MODAL SPLIT SHARE OF INLAND TRANSPORT MODES IN THE EU-27 (IN %) 2009-2023

Source: Eurostat [tran_hv_frmod]

Over the last decade, modal split shares have overall decreased slightly for IWT and rail at the level of the EU-27, while those of road transport have slightly increased. IWT lost 2.4 percentage points in the last 10 years, reaching 5.0% in 2023, its lowest level since 2005. It is well behind road transport (78.1% in 2023, +4.2 percentage points in the last 10 years) and rail transport (16.9%, -1.8 percentage points in the last 10 years). As many EU countries do not have inland waterways, the overall modal split of IWT at the EU level should not be used as a performance indicator for the success of inland waterway transport in the EU. It is best to look at modal split figures per country.

FIGURES 16 AND 17: IWW MODAL SPLIT EVOLUTION IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES (IN %, BASED ON TONNE-KILOMETRES) *

Source: Eurostat [tran_hv_frmod]
* Share of inland waterway transport performance in total (IWT + Road + Rail) transport performance

Modal split shares of inland waterway transport (IWT) in main IWT countries have decreased in the last decade. In the Netherlands, the modal split share of IWT increased up until 2012, reaching a peak at 46.8%. This decreased in the following years, reaching 40.9% in 2023. This decline also took place in Germany, as the IWT modal share fell below the 7.0% mark (6.6%) for the second consecutive year. It is the lowest modal split share ever recorded for inland waterway transport since 2005.²¹ The same observation is true for Belgium, Luxembourg and France. Within Danube countries, Romania and Bulgaria enjoyed record high IWT modal shares. However, after a first decrease in 2021, both sustained another strong decrease in their IWT modal shares in 2022 reaching 20.5% (-4.6 percentage points lost to road) and 16.6% (-7.8 percentage points lost to both road and rail), respectively. The IWT modal share for these two countries returned to growth figures with IWT gaining 1.8 percentage points in Romania between 2022 and 2023, and 1.3 percentage points in Bulgaria. In the four other Danube countries, IWT modal split is either decreasing or stagnating. In all the countries analysed, the IWT modal split share decreased compared to 10 years ago (-4.6 percentage points for the Netherlands, -5.2 for Belgium, -6.7 for Romania and -9.6 for Hungary).