• In the short term, transport demand for steel and iron ore remained relatively stable in Rhine countries in 2024, even though steel production increased in Rhine countries overall. A negative trend is observed in Danube countries. Long-term forecasts suggest that steel production will stay below pre-pandemic levels due to structural changes in demand, rising energy costs, and decarbonisation trends, with limited growth expected in iron ore transport.
• In 2024, agricultural and food products were the market segment with the highest growth rate in Rhine transport. Transport of agricultural and food products show a positive outlook, particularly in the Danube region, where production and demand are projected to increase.
• Container transport has experienced a prolonged downturn due to multiple overlapping crises, including low water levels, geopolitical tensions, rising energy prices and changes in global trade flows. While figures from early 2024 indicated a modest recovery, long-term prospects remain cautious. Inland container transport is expected to grow slowly in the coming years, closely tied to global trade and maritime throughput, but will likely remain below pre-crisis growth rates.
• The chemical sector continues to face challenges linked to high energy prices and weaker industrial demand. Nevertheless, a limited recovery in transport volumes was observed in 2024. Long-term projections point to a continuation of the growth for chemical transport on inland waterways, despite only modest growth for chemical production, constrained by competitiveness issues and economic uncertainty.
SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR IWT MARKETS IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES
- Inland navigation is an important transport mode for raw materials and end products of the steel industry. In the German steel industry (the largest steel producing country in the EU) for example, inland navigation has a market share of 32% among all logistic activities, according to the German Steel Association. This market share has been fairly constant since 2010.
- On the entire Rhine, more than 16% of all cargo transport is related to steel production (iron ore, coking coal, metals, metal products).84 On the Danube, this share is even higher and amounts to 40% for the Middle Danube.
- Iron ore transport on the Rhine in general follows a similar trend as steel production, despite a small divergence in 2023, due to a replenishment of stocks for iron ore. Steel production in Rhine countries increased by +9.3% in 2024 compared to 2023, while transport of iron ore on the entire Rhine remained constant.
- Steel production in Danube countries85 amounted to 15.4 million tonnes in 2024, a decrease of -6.7% compared to 2023.
- According to Eurofer,86 2024 was still marked by persistent negative factors such as the conflict in Ukraine and related rises in energy prices and production costs, which led to a contraction of steel demand. In 2025, apparent steel consumption is projected to decline again
(-0.9%), due to the anticipated impact of US tariffs and the resulting uncertainty and trade-related disruptions. Although subject to high uncertainty, the outlook should be more optimistic in 2026 as apparent steel consumption is projected to recover (+3.4%). However, this recovery will be conditional on a positive evolution in the industrial outlook and an easing of global tensions. - Steel demand is dependent upon the development in the steel using sectors, which are in particular the construction sector and the automobile industry. In Germany, two-thirds of demand for steel comes from these two sectors, for which the following outlook can be expected according to Eurofer:
– The construction sector should experience flat growth in 2025 (+1.1%) due to persistently weak housing demand, and experience a modest recovery in 2026 (+0.8%), primarily driven by the anticipated effects of the change in monetary policy by the Central Bank (monetary easing, lowering of interest rates).
– For the automotive industry, increasing global uncertainty and low confidence should result in another annual drop (-2.6%) in 2025, before experiencing a moderate increase in 2026 (+1.9%). - Agricultural and food products have a share of around 10% (2024) in Rhine navigation and around 23% in Danube navigation.
- Wheat
For soft wheat,87 harvest volumes for the 2024/25 season in the European Union, including France, are below the 5-year-average. On a worldwide scale, harvest volumes are above the 5-year-average. The situation is similar for hard wheat,88 where harvest volumes are slightly below the 5-year-average in France as well as in the rest of the European Union. On a worldwide scale, they are above the 5-year-average. - Barley
Worldwide production amounts to 144.0 million tonnes for the 2024/25 season. Harvest volumes on a worldwide scale, as well as in the EU-27, including France, are below the 5-year-average. Harvest results are foreseen to increase in the 2025/26 season, to a level of 147.5 million tonnes. - Maize
Harvest results on a worldwide scale are expected to increase to a level of 1,274 million tonnes in the season 2025/26. - Since the Covid-19 pandemic began in 2020, the chemical industry has had to navigate turbulent market conditions. The European chemical industry encountered challenges with economic recession, inflation and high energy prices in 2022 and 2023. This led to reduced demand and put pressure on chemical margins. As a result, several companies across the Netherlands, Germany, and France recently announced plant closures or job cuts.89
- As in the previous years, hopes of an economic recovery did not materialise for the EU chemical sector in 2024, although a slight recovery is observed on a global scale. Under the impulse of the first half year 2024 which seemed to point to a recovery, the production level in the EU increased compared to 2023 (+2.0%). However, production levels remained below the pre-Covid period. In addition, the weak demand combined with declining business confidence and a downward trend on the prices and sales side, negatively weighed on production in the second half of 2024. These trends are observed across both Rhine and Danube countries.
- The reduced demand can be explained by the difficult economic situation which persisted in 2024 and an uncertain outlook. On the production side, energy prices remained high in 2024 (gas prices in the EU in 2024 are still 98% above pre-pandemic level (2014-2019)), even though the price of the chemical industry raw material, mainly naphtha and crude oil, decreased. Higher energy prices in Europe compared to the USA also put Europe at a competitive disadvantage, and this is expected to remain true at least in the short-term.90
- With regard to transport performance, the share of chemicals amounts approximately to 17% on the Rhine and 11% on the Danube. The transport performance for chemicals in Rhine and Danube countries has fluctuated over the last five years, with significant drops in 2018 (low water effect) and 2022 (as a consequence of the war in Ukraine and the low waters). For both rivers, the trend in transport demand roughly followed the trend in production.
- In 2025, the imposition of US tariffs on chemical imports and exports has significantly disrupted the global chemical industry, creating widespread economic, geographical, and business impacts.91 The EU-27 chemical sales is highly generated from exports, and the USA is the first export country for the sector in this region. The announced tariffs expose the EU chemical industry business environment to high risks, however their impact on the chemical industry remains uncertain. With regard to the demand, significant output declines were observed in the automotive industry in 2024, which is among the main drivers of the chemical sector.92 In 2025, the demand increase is expected to be limited due to weak economic conditions, especially in Germany and the USA, structural problems, a low industry and consumers’ confidence, and a high uncertainty in Europe. Consequently, EU-27 chemicals output is projected to grow from 2.5% in 2024, to probably less than 0.5% in 2025. Overall, no sign of improvements was noticeable in the first months of 2025, and the recovery of the chemical industry is still uncertain.93
- Container transport in inland navigation has been declining for several years. The years 2018 and 2022 witnessed two extended periods of low water levels that restricted navigating the Rhine, particularly in terms of volumes, and led to a certain reverse modal shift regarding container transport. Moreover, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 had a significant impact on trade both directly – by hindering Ukraine’s capability to trade – and indirectly – by causing an energy shock leading to higher energy prices and a cascade of geopolitical fragmentations that weakened trade between countries which sided with Russia and those that opposed it.94 Finally, in the aftermath of the pandemic, the consumption of goods has slowed down, while the consumption of services has increased, which also contributed to a negative impact on container transport. However, container transport has shown signs of a recovery in 2024. The total volume of container transport across the entire Rhine in 2024 increased by +2.0% compared to 2023. This shift can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a recovery in maritime container throughput in major ports such as Rotterdam and Antwerp, driven in particular by growth in consumer goods and food products as well as more favourable water levels.
- Despite these difficult circumstances, a recovery might be on the horizon as container transport in Northern Range ports95 witnessed a significant resurgence in container throughput in 2024 and in the first two months of 2025. RWI/ISL index values rose by +6.6 index points in January 202596 compared to December 2024, and by +14.4 index points when compared to January 2024. However, February and March 2025 marked a slight decline compared to the previous months, respectively -1.3 and -0.7 index points, reflecting the first effects of the new US customs policy.
- Overall, these figures suggest a possible end to the long-lasting decline in container throughput in these European maritime ports, which began in 2022, resulting from several factors (including the lack of competitivity of the EU industry, higher gas prices and less intense world trade) and that intensified in November 2023, after the first attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo ships in the Red Sea. Furthermore, on a broader scale, maritime transport is expected to grow in line with global trade, with container trade growth stabilising at around 2.7% per year in the period 2025-2029. While demand for bulk commodities continues to support overall maritime transport, the growth in containerised cargo is being driven more significantly by factors such as economic growth in developing countries. As explained in the UNCTAD 2024 Review of Maritime Transport, developing countries are increasing their demand for manufactured goods, contributing to higher container volumes.97 However, this growth for container transport remains low compared to the pre-pandemic average of +4.9%.98 In Europe, part of the increase in container volumes might also be partly due to the arrival of vessels that are avoiding the Red Sea due to geopolitical tensions, as well as the economic recovery in the Eurozone.
- The outlook for container transport in inland navigation therefore remains mixed. Geopolitical tensions, including trade policy uncertainties, continue to affect trade patterns, and Europe is still recovering from a difficult macroeconomic context. While short-term growth is projected, container trade is expected to grow at a slower pace than before. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook for 2025 has revised its global trade forecasts, projecting a slowdown in container transport.99 Additionally, recent shifts in US customs policy are beginning to disrupt global container flows. While container throughput rose in almost all regions in January and February 2025, this was followed by a decline in March 2025, possibly due to the fact that businesses rushed to ship their goods before the start of the new US tariffs.100 In addition, the extent to which this low growth trend will remain will also depend on the further escalation of conflicts that affect gas and energy prices. Last but not least, the negative impact of inefficient handling of inland container vessels in seaports, both financially and in terms of reliability of IWT, should not be underestimated. The persistence of this phenomenon – together with other factors (i.e. low water events) – could ultimately contribute to reverse the modal shift. As such, expectations should therefore remain moderated.
- The new building activity for river cruises in Europe improved in 2024, and the active fleet remained the same as in 2023, attaining 408 river cruise vessels. Overall, since Covid-19, the new building activity for river cruises remained rather slow between 2022 and 2024. However, it is expected to pick up again in 2025. Newbuilding figures for 2024 are indeed higher than in 2023 and are expected to almost triple in 2025. The order book for 2026 is also promising. As a sign of this positive development, Viking River Cruises alone contracted 11 new vessels for 2025 and 2026 and eight more were ordered for 2027 and 2028. Recently more vessels than ever were ordered for the Rhône, Seine and the Douro.
- The forecast for river cruises’ sales in 2025 is predominantly positive as, in the context of the survey conducted by IG River cruise, 81% of respondents expect an increase in sales figures compared to 2024, particularly regarding passengers from the USA/Canada and Australia/New Zealand. As regards passengers coming from the DACH region and the UK/Ireland, expectations are more cautious, with a higher proportion of companies forecasting stable sales figures.101
- In France, more than half of the companies working in the river tourism sector express concern about 2025, mainly due to increased operating costs, fees and tolls, and recruitment difficulties within the sector. Yet, they are optimistic about the medium-term development of their business as the media exposure of Paris and the waterways during the 2024 Olympic Games point to unprecedented development prospects.102
- Despite this global positive overview, it is also important to underline that the persisting geopolitical tensions might result in smaller European companies being more cautious about expanding their fleet into new markets. Indeed, as highlighted by the shipping company, Navibelle,103 concentrating on the European market and not targeting overseas clients – who are more likely to cancel their cruises in Europe in the event of geopolitical tensions – is a way to mitigate risks. For larger cruise companies however, the growth of the fleet is expected to continue.
STEEL AND IRON ORE
FIGURES 1 AND 2: STEEL PRODUCTION IN RHINE COUNTRIES AND TRANSPORT OF IRON ORE ON THE ENTIRE RHINE
Sources: Eurofer, Destatis, Rijkswaterstaat, CCNR analysis. Switzerland: estimation.
FIGURES 3 AND 4: STEEL PRODUCTION IN DANUBE COUNTRIES AND TRANSPORT OF IRON ORE ON THE LOWER DANUBE *
Sources: Eurofer, Eurostat [iww_go_atygo]
* Lower Danube = Bulgaria; data for 2024 not available
Data for Serbia and Bosnia-Herzegovina for 2024: estimation
Outlook for the iron ore and steel segment
AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD PRODUCTS
FIGURES 5 AND 6: GRAIN HARVEST PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN RHINE COUNTRIES
Sources: Eurostat [apro_cpsh1] and [iww_go_atygo]
Grain = Cereals (excluding rice) for the production of grain (including seed)
FIGURES 7 AND 8: GRAIN HARVEST PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN DANUBE COUNTRIES
Sources: Eurostat [apro_cpsh1] and [iww_go_atygo]
Grain = Cereals (excluding rice) for the production of grain (including seed). For figure 7, missing data for Bosnia and Herzegovina in 2024. For figure 8, data for Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are not available for the transport of agricultural products in Danube countries.
Outlook for the agri-food segment
TABLE 1: HARVEST VOLUMES FOR THE 2024/25 SEASON COMPARED TO FIVE-YEAR- AVERAGE
| Harvest season 2024/25 in million tonnes | World | EU-27 | France |
|---|---|---|---|
| Soft wheat | 762.1 | 111.7 | 25.5 |
| 5-year average | 749.1 | 124.1 | 34.6 |
| Hard wheat | 35.7 | 7.2 | 1.2 |
| 5-year average | 32.5 | 7.4 | 1.4 |
| Maize | 1,218 | 59.1 | 14.9 |
| 5-year average | 1,178 | 65.3 | 13.3 |
| Barley | 144 | 49.1 | 9.8 |
| 5-year average | 152.8 | 51.9 | 11.8 |
Sources: FranceAgriMer April 2025, Banque CIC agriculture, European Commission, Service de la statistique et de la prospective (SSP) du Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire (France)
CHEMICALS
FIGURES 9, 10, 11 AND 12 : INDEX OF CHEMICAL PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORT OF CHEMICAL PRODUCTS IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES
Sources: Eurostat [sts_inpr_a] and [iww_go_atygo]
Outlook for the chemical segment
CONTAINERS
FIGURES 13 AND 14: INDEX OF CONTAINER THROUGHPUT IN THE WORLD AND IN THE NORTHERN RANGE (2015= 100) AND IWW CONTAINER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE (IN TEU)
Sources: RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index, seasonally adjusted series, Eurostat [iww_go_actygo]
Outlook for the container segment
OUTLOOK FOR PASSENGER TRANSPORT
LONG RUN OUTLOOK FOR IWT MARKETS IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES BASED ON PRODUCTION
- Transport demand in IWT is derived from the development of underlying economic sectors and branches such as the construction and energy sectors, the steel industry, petrochemical and chemical industry, etc. To analyse the long-term development of transport demand according to goods segments, it is therefore crucial to look at long-term trends of the production of the respective goods.
- The forecasts shown below were based on data from Oxford Economics from March 2025. These forecasts do not therefore consider events that took place after this date.
- It is acknowledged that besides production levels, several other factors should be considered to develop a comprehensive outlook model for IWT volumes. The level of production is however considered as one of the building blocks towards the development of such a model.
- It is therefore important to consider such long-term outlooks with caution given that these forecasts are mostly based on production, and that many exceptional years have distorted long-term trends in recent years (i.e. low water in 2018 and 2022, Covid in 2020, war in Ukraine from 2022 onwards, US “trade war” with Europe).
- For the Danube, the major goods segments with the highest shares are agricultural products, food products and iron ores. Due to a substantial amount of missing data, it is not possible to indicate the exact shares per goods segment for the Danube.
- A correlation between harvest results and inland waterway transport of agricultural products has been found for France and Germany.
- While IWT is the preferred mode of transport for long-distance shipping of agricultural and food products, according to large shipping companies questioned as part of a Royal HaskoningDHV study,104 the 2020 decade is likely to witness a decline in using the IWW mode of transport. Indeed, the period 2020-2030 is seen as a transition period for agriculture, with a trend towards smaller scale, more localised production. This tendency, coupled with a reduction in the number of small vessels (in which grain is most often carried), could negatively affect the volumes of agricultural products travelling on inland waterways.
- Long-term forecasts of the production of agricultural products foresee an increasing trend in Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland. The gross real output in this sector is foreseen to increase by +4.9% between 2024 and 2050 in Germany. For France, a growth of +8.0% is expected, +46.0% for the Netherlands, +14.4% for Belgium and +25.0% for Switzerland.
- Overall, agricultural production in Rhine countries is expected to experience moderate growth, with the Netherlands and Switzerland showing the strongest upward trend over the decades, while Belgium displays a small negative growth rate in the last period. The data in the tables 3 to 15 indicate the growth rates between 2024 and 2050, between 2020 and 2030, 2030 and 2040 and 2040 and 2050. Hence, for each time frame, a comparison is made between two values. Therefore, the growth rates do not represent annual rates per year.
- Regarding Danube countries, the output of the sector is forecast to fall by -12.1% in Bulgaria, by -4.4% in Hungary and by -10.0% in Slovakia between 2024 and 2050. It is however expected to increase in Austria (+26.5%), Croatia (+29.7%), and Romania (+6.9%) in the same period.
- Danube countries show a mixed pattern, with Austria, Romania, Bulgaria and Croatia experiencing strong growth in the 2020s, but most countries in that region facing a subdued development or slight declines in the following decades.
- The volume of coal transported on inland waterways is expected to decrease strongly in the next two decades, as European countries progress further in their energy transition. Germany, for example, has planned to close all its coal power plants by 2038; as a result, the country’s coal imports have fallen significantly in recent years.105
The same dynamic has been observed in France, as well as in all Danube countries, where coal consumption is forecast to fall to historically low levels in the long run, even for major consumers such as Bulgaria and Romania. In western Europe, Germany has the largest coal consumption and is dependent on coal imports, which are largely transported on the Rhine. Despite a short-run boom in coal consumption in 2022, the long-run outlook for coal demand is negative. Up until the year 2050, the outlook for domestic coal demand (both for energy generation and steel production) points to a -84.0% decrease in Germany. For France, the expected decrease is -77.4%. For the Netherlands, the reduction is -82.1%, -73.9% for Belgium and -100.0% for Switzerland. - Rhine countries show a clear downward trend in coal demand, with all five countries experiencing strong and sustained declines over each decade from 2020 to 2050, particularly in Germany and the Netherlands between 2020 and 2030. This projection for coal demand corroborates the expected negative trend for coal transport on European waterways in the long term.
- Coal consumption in countries in the Danube region is expected to follow a similar downward trend as in Rhine countries despite a slight uptake during the Covid-19 pandemic. From 2024 to 2050, the domestic demand for coal is forecast to fall by -71.4% in Austria, -100.0% in Croatia, -71.4% in Hungary, and -40.0% in Slovakia. The two countries where demand is currently the greatest (Romania and Bulgaria) are expected to witness an even more severe downtrend (-92.3% and -85.7% respectively).
- Based on the available data for coal demand, Danube countries are projected to undergo a sharp and continuous decline in coal transport between 2020 and 2050, with particularly steep reductions in Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and Croatia during the first two decades. Even countries with smaller declines, such as Slovakia, still show a consistent negative trend in coal across all decades.
- It is estimated that about 75-80% of traded goods are shipped by sea.106 Container transport, in turn, is the dominant mode of transport in maritime trade with nearly 66% of goods transported by sea being containerised.107 In the absence of more specific data, and because container transport on inland waterways tends to reflect seaborne container transport and world trade, the sum of all imports and exports of goods per country was thus used as a proxy to analyse the evolution of container transport on the Rhine. Danube countries are excluded, as container transport on the Danube is exceedingly rare. Similarly, information related to world trade was used for the outlook for container transport in Europe.
- Based on long-term forecasts available for international trade, container transport is likely to experience a steady growth in western Europe. Indeed, the highest growth rate in international trade between 2024 and 2050 is expected to be seen in Switzerland (+66.6%). Germany should remain the country with the highest trade value, with an increase of almost +33.3% in the value of both its exports and imports. The growth of trade value in other western European countries is forecast to increase by +14.9% in Belgium, +35.6% in the Netherlands, and +47.0% in France.
- World trade is assumed to recover from the current economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions and grow in volume at a steady rate, despite a structural rearrangement of trade flows due to these tensions. Indeed, recent years have seen a marked interest in friendshoring and onshoring. The underlying reasons behind this are not only linked to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and with the concerns they caused regarding the apparent weakness of supply chains, but also to environmental concerns.
- Whether friendshoring will last and change the face of world trade in the long run is difficult to say. If it does, it will certainly cause an increase in container trade within Europe, as most European countries are geographically close to each other and generally enjoy cordial diplomatic relations within the EU, making friendshoring and onshoring in the future likely.108
- Rhine countries are expected to see moderate to strong growth in the sum of real imports and exports of goods from 2020 to 2050, with Switzerland and France showing the most consistent increases across all decades, while Belgium is projected to experience a slight decline by the 2040s.
- Inland waterway transportation is likely to remain in a strong position for the transport of chemicals, as other modes of transport are generally not considered competitive alternatives, except for pipelines. The chemical industry supplies clients from many economic sectors, especially in agriculture (fertilizers), plastics, automotive, construction, and paper and pulp industries. Moreover, the worldwide trend towards reindustrialisation and friendshoring is planned to be encouraged by the European Commission’s Green Deal Industrial Plan, which should ensure consistent outputs for the chemical industry.
- The transport of chemicals is a growth market in IWT. This is confirmed by forecasts showing increased chemical production in several European countries. It can be expected that the transport of chemicals on inland waterways will grow in line with the growing production of chemicals. Moreover, the chemical industry is estimated to support more than 75% of all emission reduction technologies needed to reach the 2050 net-zero goals, which will likely drive demand and production in the coming decades.109
- Real gross output of chemical production is expected to grow by +35.9% in France, by +33.4% in Switzerland, and by +3.9% in the Netherlands between 2024 and 2050. A rate of decrease of -14.9% is foreseen for Germany and of -3.9% for Belgium.
- Chemical production in Rhine countries is expected to grow strongly in the 2020s, particularly in Switzerland and Germany, but growth is projected to slow down significantly in the decades following, especially in Germany and Belgium.
- Bulgaria, currently the biggest chemicals producer in central and eastern Europe, is expected to experience a sharp increase in its sectorial output by 2050, placing it well ahead of the other countries, with a growth rate of +79.0%.
- In Danube countries, chemical production is forecast to grow strongly across all decades, especially in Hungary, Bulgaria, and Slovakia, with only Austria experiencing a small decline during the period 2030-2040.
- According to a study conducted by Royal HaskoningDHV, the Dutch shippers believe that inland waterway transport will remain the main mode of transport for construction materials such as gravel, sands, stones. No major modal shift is expected, but as larger companies are being created by mergers and acquisitions, the number of smaller concrete mortar plants and smaller sand and gravel companies along small waterways is expected to diminish. As larger entities concentrate along the waterways and look for more economies of scale, the demand for smaller vessels should also decrease. The upcoming years anticipate a surge in sand and gravel availability due to dredging efforts to expand waterways, coinciding with a growing demand for materials for dike reinforcement in the face of climate risks.
- The transport demand depends strongly on the activity of the construction sector. According to the outlook of Oxford Economics, the inflation-adjusted real output in Germany will grow by +36.3% between 2024 and 2050. For France, the expected growth rate of real output in the construction sector is +7.3%, +30.0% in the Netherlands, +14.4% in Belgium and +25.1% in Switzerland.
- The construction sector in Rhine countries is expected to recover after a challenging 2020s for Germany, with steady growth projected across most countries in the 2030s and 2040s.
- The construction sector is expected to grow by +55.7% in Bulgaria, +22.0% in Croatia, +60.7% in Hungary, +37.1% in Romania, and +17.1% in Slovakia between 2024 and 2050. Austria’s construction sector, currently the biggest in central and eastern Europe, is forecast to catch up and be followed closely by Romania’s, with respective growth rates of +33.3% and +37.1% in the same time frame.
- Construction output in Danube countries is forecast to grow robustly, particularly in Romania, Croatia, and Hungary during the 2020s, with slightly slower but still a growth in the following decades.
- As countries progress through their energy transition, the demand for petroleum or mineral oil products is however expected to continue its current downward trend, leading to a decline in its transport through inland waterways. Even though there are financial and technical barriers to the development of carbon neutral propulsion technologies, it is assumed that mineral oil products will gradually be phased out from the propulsion mix in the next two decades, especially under the impulse of the EU legislation ETS2 (Emissions Trading Scheme, the EU trading system for CO2 emissions) which is expected to drive the prices of fossil fuel upwards. Data from the port of Antwerp show that mineral oil products volumes have been declining continuously since 2013, while the volume of transported chemicals has risen greatly.
- For the production of petroleum products (liquid fuels, heating oil) and coking coal or coke, this is foreseen to decrease until 2050. This is explained by the gradual transition to alternative energy sources in the transport sector which is expected to lead to a decrease in the demand for petroleum products (refined liquid fuels). Concerning coking coal, a transition towards carbon free steel production is likely, which is also expected to lead to a decrease in the demand for coking coal in the future.
- For Germany, the outlook shows a decrease in the production of both products together of -39.9% until 2050. For France, a decrease of -54.0% is foreseen, a decline of -66.3% for the Netherlands and a decline of -41.0% for Belgium. Switzerland has a very low production level of petroleum products, which is the reason for rather high imports via the Rhine.
- The production of petroleum products and coke in Rhine countries shows a general decline after initial growth in some countries in the 2020s, reflecting the ongoing energy transition away from fossil fuels.
- A similar outlook is foreseen in eastern Europe and Austria, with a decline in petroleum products and coke production: -68.5% in Romania, -29.1% in Croatia and -5.5% in Austria. The three countries where these sectors are expected to grow by 2050 are Bulgaria, with a +244.5% growth rate, Slovakia (+76.0%) and Hungary (+5.4%).
- In the Danube region, petroleum products and coke production is expected to decline significantly in most countries after 2030, with Bulgaria being a notable exception, maintaining strong growth throughout./li>
TABLE 13: GROWTH RATES OF COKE AND REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTION IN DANUBE COUNTRIES
Countries Growth rate 2024-2050 Growth rate 2020-2030 Growth rate 2030-2040 Growth rate 2040-2050 Romania -68.5% +50.8% -41.1% -24.0% Hungary +5.4% -46.1% +1.5% -4.5% Austria -5.5% +8.9% -0.2% -12.8% Bulgaria +244.5% +24.4% +46.0% +11.3% Croatia -29.1% -52.6% -2.4% -25.6% Slovakia +76.0% +23.4% +16.2% -2.4%
Source: CCNR calculation
- As a circular economy is expected to play a more important role in the future (study conducted by Royal HaskoningDHV), Dutch shipping companies have communicated strong opinions on higher metals recycling rates and a subsequent decline in steel demand and production across western Europe. This could cause a decline in the transportation of steel, but also iron ore, as it will likely be replaced by recycled steel and less emission intensive production technologies. However, the demand for high quality steel is expected to remain high not only in developed countries, but is thought to increase in developing countries, which could make steel remain an important product in European industry.
- In cases where steel production is located along inland waterways, a high waterborne transport of iron ore, coking coal and steel products is observed. Germany is the largest steel producing country in Europe and the Rhine is an important transport route for iron ore and steel products.
- Between 2024 and 2050, the outlook for German steel production points to a decline of -30.7%. For France, an increase of +57.1% is foreseen but based on a much lower absolute level of steel production. For the transport of iron ore and steel on inland waterways, the Belgian, French and German steel production is of high relevance as the steel industry in these countries is often located along inland waterways. This is not the case for Dutch and Swiss steel industry. Dutch steel production is located at the crossing of deep sea and inland waterways. Raw materials enter by sea, while products leave by inland waterways.
- Steel production in Rhine countries shows divergent trends, the Netherlands shows stagnation in the 2020s before declining, while Germany, France, Belgium, and Switzerland are projected to decline across most periods.
- Austria is expected to remain an important player in the steel sector along the Danube, with a +4.8% growth rate between 2024 and 2050. Romania’s steel production, after two sharp drops in the early 2000s and in 2020, will experience a decline of -26.2% by 2050. The forecasts from Oxford Economics point to high growth rates across other regions of central and eastern Europe: +75.0% for Hungary, and +60.0% for Slovakia.
- Danube countries show more dynamic growth prospects for steel production, particularly Hungary, Croatia, and Slovakia, whereas Romania continues to show a significant decline over the decades.
TABLE 2: SHARE OF MAJOR GOODS SEGMENTS WITHIN RHINE TRANSPORT (BASED ON CALCULATION OF SHARE IN TONNES)
| Product segment | Share in % in 2022 | Share in % in 2023 | Share in % in 2024 | Average share 2014-2024 in % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mineral oil products | 20.3 | 22.1 | 22.7 | 20.8 |
| Chemicals | 16.7 | 16.2 | 16.8 | 15.3 |
| Sands, stones, gravel | 16.4 | 17.3 | 16.5 | 17.2 |
| Container | 11.1 | 10.2 | 10.2 | 10.9 |
| Agribulk and food products | 9.7 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.5 |
| Iron ore | 7.3 | 7.9 | 7.7 | 7.6 |
| Coal | 9.5 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 8.7 |
| Metals | 5.0 | 5.0 | 5.1 | 4.8 |
| Other | 3.9 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.4 |
Sources: CCNR calculation based on Destatis, Rijkswaterstaat and VNF
AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES
FIGURE 15: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY AND FISHERY PRODUCTION IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN BILLION DOLLARS)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 3: GROWTH RATES OF AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY AND FISHERY PRODUCTION IN RHINE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | +8.0% | -0.2% | +2.3% | +1.5% |
| Germany | +4.9% | +5.9% | +2.9% | +0.3% |
| Netherlands | +46.0% | +5.0% | +14.9% | +11.0% |
| Belgium | +14.4% | +1.9% | +4.4% | -0.6% |
| Switzerland | +25.0% | +5.2% | +10.6% | +12.5% |
Source: CCNR calculation
FIGURE 16: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY AND FISHERY PRODUCTION IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN BILLION DOLLARS)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 4: GROWTH RATES OF AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY AND FISHERY PRODUCTION IN DANUBE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | +7.1% | +34.4% | +1.9% | -2.4% |
| Austria | +26.6% | +18.0% | +9.0% | +5.3% |
| Hungary | -4.0% | +1.2% | +0.1% | +2.3% |
| Slovakia | -10.1% | -0.2% | -2.3% | -1.5% |
| Bulgaria | -12.7% | +18.6% | -2.0% | -3.2% |
| Croatia | +28.7% | +22.0% | +10.5% | -0.8% |
Source: CCNR calculation
COAL
FIGURE 17: COAL, DOMESTIC DEMAND IN RHINE COUNTRIES, ANNUALISED (IN MILLION TONNES)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 5: GROWTH RATES OF COAL DEMAND IN RHINE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | -77.4% | -7.9% | -49.6% | -21.5% |
| Germany | -84.0% | -61.1% | -48.7% | -32.6% |
| Netherlands | -82.1% | -56.2% | -47.2% | -45.3% |
| Belgium | -73.9% | -47.4% | -39.2% | -18.4% |
| Switzerland | -100.0% | -21.8% | -28.6% | -40.0% |
Source: CCNR calculation
FIGURE 18: COAL, DOMESTIC DEMAND IN DANUBE COUNTRIES, ANNUALISED (IN MILLION TONNES)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 6: GROWTH RATES OF COAL DEMAND IN DANUBE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | -92.3% | -71.9% | -69.4% | -36.7% |
| Hungary | -71.4% | -66.7% | -33.9% | -35.1% |
| Austria | -71.4% | -45.0% | -34.6% | -32.6% |
| Bulgaria | -85.7% | -49.8% | -76.1% | -10.0% |
| Croatia | -100.0% | -58.6% | -66.7% | -20.0% |
| Slovakia | -40.0% | -21.9% | -18.3% | -17.0% |
Source: CCNR calculation
CONTAINERS
FIGURE 19: YEARLY SUM OF REAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF GOODS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN BILLION EUROS)
Source: Oxford Economics
Switzerland’s exports and imports value was converted from 2015 Swiss francs to 2015 euros.
TABLE 7: GROWTH RATES OF THE SUM OF REAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF GOODS IN RHINE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | +47.0% | +29.0% | +13.0% | +15.4% |
| Germany | +33.3% | +1.7% | +11.2% | +12.4% |
| Netherlands | +35.6% | +30.0% | +10.4% | +11.1% |
| Belgium | +14.9% | +17.3% | +6.1% | -0.7% |
| Switzerland | +66.6% | +34.4% | +21.2% | +21.2% |
Source: CCNR calculation
CHEMICALS
FIGURE 20: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF CHEMICALS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN BILLION DOLLARS)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 8: GROWTH RATES OF CHEMICAL PRODUCTION IN RHINE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | +35.9% | +17.9% | +10.6% | +9.9% |
| Germany | -14.9% | +31.1% | -6.7% | +2.3% |
| Netherlands | +3.9% | 24% | -0.5% | +7.5% |
| Belgium | -3.9% | +3.7% | -0.5% | +2.1% |
| Switzerland | +33.4% | +40.9% | +14.8% | +10.6% |
Source: CCNR calculation
FIGURE 21: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF CHEMICALS IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN BILLION DOLLARS)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 9: GROWTH RATES OF CHEMICAL PRODUCTION IN DANUBE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | +72.7% | -10.8% | +22.3% | +19.1% |
| Hungary | +114.6% | +30.8% | +32.9% | +22.3% |
| Austria | -8.1% | +73.8% | -3.0% | +4.2% |
| Bulgaria | +79.0% | +87.1% | +28.0% | +20.7% |
| Croatia | +92.9% | +34.9% | +32.9% | +19.0% |
| Slovakia | +152.9% | +38.8% | +33.3% | +22.1% |
Source: CCNR calculation
CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL, SAND, STONES, GRAVEL
FIGURE 22: REAL GROSS OUTPUT IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN BILLION DOLLARS)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 10: GROWTH RATES IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN RHINE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | +7.3% | +8.3% | 2% | +1.3% |
| Germany | +36.3% | -15.1% | +11.4% | +10.1% |
| Netherlands | +30.0% | +19.9% | +9.1% | +9.5% |
| Belgium | +14.4% | +15.6% | +6.0% | +5.3% |
| Switzerland | +25.1% | +10.8% | +8.7% | +3.4% |
Source: CCNR calculation
FIGURE 23: REAL GROSS OUTPUT IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN BILLION DOLLARS)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 11: GROWTH RATES IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN DANUBE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | +37.1% | +32.1% | +10.1% | +6.4% |
| Hungary | +60.7% | +19.1% | +17.5% | +13.8% |
| Austria | +33.3% | -6.0% | +11.6% | +4.9% |
| Bulgaria | +55.7% | +1.3% | +20.6% | +16.4% |
| Croatia | +22.0% | +43.6% | +11.4% | +6.2% |
| Slovakia | +17.1% | +18.3% | +3.2% | +1.1% |
Source: CCNR calculation
PETROLEUM PRODUCTS AND COKING COAL
FIGURE 24: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF COKE AND REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN BILLION DOLLARS)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 12: GROWTH RATES OF COKE AND REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTION IN RHINE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | -54.0% | +53.2% | -28.8% | -23.5% |
| Germany | -39.9% | -5.5% | -16.8% | -25.8% |
| Netherlands | -66.3% | +61.9% | -34.3% | -26.3% |
| Belgium | -41.0% | -11.5% | -21.3% | -22.3% |
| Switzerland | -18.2% | +25.0% | -5.3% | -2.2% |
Source: CCNR calculation
STEEL AND IRON ORE
FIGURE 25: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF IRON AND STEEL IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN BILLION DOLLARS)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 14: GROWTH RATES OF IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTION IN RHINE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| France | +57.1% | -27.4% | +5.4% | +5.1% |
| Germany | -30.7% | +23.4% | -14.1% | -8.3% |
| Netherlands | -15.9% | +19.3% | -11.1% | -6.2% |
| Belgium | -16.6% | -18.5% | -8.9% | -6.4% |
| Switzerland | -40.7% | -40.0% | -12.6% | -18.6% |
Source: CCNR calculation
FIGURE 26: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF IRON AND STEEL IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (PRICES OF 2015 IN BILLION DOLLARS)
Source: Oxford Economics
TABLE 15: GROWTH RATES OF IRON AND STEEL PRODUCTION IN DANUBE COUNTRIES
| Countries | Growth rate 2024-2050 | Growth rate 2020-2030 | Growth rate 2030-2040 | Growth rate 2040-2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romania | -26.2% | -2.9% | -16.0% | -0.9% |
| Hungary | +75.0% | -29.3% | +24.5% | +1.5% |
| Austria | +4.8% | +6.3% | +2.7% | +1.5% |
| Bulgaria | +/-0.0% | +22.0% | +/-0.0% | +/-0.0% |
| Croatia | +/-0.0% | +46.2% | +1.3% | +5.2% |
| Slovakia | +60.0% | +1.6% | +20.9% | +3.2% |
Source: CCNR calculation