• Different methodologies indicate good navigation conditions for the year 2024. This was particularly the case for the Rhine, where no single low water day was observed in 2024 at the different Rhine gauge stations.
• For the Upper and Middle Danube, navigating conditions were also favourable, while they were more critical on the Lower Danube in Romania and Bulgaria.
• Although there were no low water periods in 2024 in western Europe, the level of freight rates for different cargo types remained rather high, as can be seen from a comparison with freight rates in earlier years. Freight rates were especially higher than the levels before the low water periods of 2022.
• Reasons for high freight rates can be found in the upward pressure for operating costs, due to the shortage of personnel, which leads to rising personnel costs.
WATER LEVELS, AVAILABLE DRAUGHTS AND NAVIGATION CONDITIONS
- The overall performance of inland waterway transport is linked to – among other factors – water levels, which determine the amount of cargo that a vessel can load and transport under safe navigation conditions. High water depths and the resulting high load factors lead to lower fuel consumption per unit of output. Indeed, on the one hand, the more water there is under the keel, the lower the required power and the lower the fuel consumption, on the other hand, the less water there is under the keel, the faster the required power and the fuel consumption increase.
- Although the reduction of the load factor during a low water period could be compensated by putting more vessels into operation, there are obvious limitations to this.28 In addition, other reasons besides vessel availability play an important role. For instance, higher costs during such periods lead to some operators delaying the transport of some of their cargo, especially the less urgent or less profitable ones. In addition, some clients also look for other modal alternatives where available. An example is the low water period experienced in both autumn 2018 and summer 2022 on the Rhine. These two periods inflicted a reduction of the entire cargo transport. Hence, the lower load factors per vessel could not be compensated for by putting more vessels into operation.
- The amount of cargo that a vessel can load at a certain water level is determined by the available draught, as can be seen in the next figure.
- One way of observing hydraulicity and navigating conditions is to calculate available draught figures based on water levels. The available draught is the depth by which a vessel can sink into the water under safe conditions. This depth is calculated based on water levels and parameters such as the equivalent water level and the minimum navigational channel depth.29
- The following figure shows the number of days during which a certain available draught was present for the gauge station of Kaub. It shows that the year 2024 was characterised by good navigating conditions as the number of days during which the available draught was low was smaller than in previous years. For example, in 2024, there were 0 days at the gauge station Kaub when the available draught was in the interval between 131 cm and 180 cm. In 2018, this category counted 84 days, 52 days in 2022 and 24 days in 2023.
- In addition to low water, high-water episodes can take place on the Rhine. In this case, if the water rises above a given level, navigation can be banned.
- Such high-water episodes are not unusual, and the sector is accustomed to such occasional navigation bans. It is however important to note that the impact of such high-water episodes on IWT volumes cannot be compared with the impact of low water periods, which are much more severe. There are several reasons for this:
– Low water periods may last longer than high-water periods. Low waters may indeed last one or two months which is never the case for high water episodes which usually last a few days.
– Before reaching critical low water levels, the navigable channel depth for the vessels is progressively decreasing, thereby reducing the loading capacity of vessels already at the start of low water periods. However, in the case of high waters and before a navigation ban is issued, the navigable channel depth is very high (at least until closure) and vessels can operate with full load.
FIGURE 1: ACTUAL WATER LEVEL, ACTUAL DRAUGHT, EQUIVALENT WATER LEVEL, MINIMUM NAVIGATION CHANNEL DEPTH AND POSSIBLE OR AVAILABLE DRAUGHT AT KAUB/MIDDLE RHINE *
Sources: CCNR based on the German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) (2015)
* The distances in this drawing are not at scale. In this illustration, the date chosen to determine the available or possible draught is 3 September 2020, when the actual water level was 239 cm on average. For a sailing vessel, the actual draught also contains the squat effect. The latter results from hydrodynamic effects and leads to a higher draught compared to a vessel at rest. The squat effect is stronger the less water present under the keel, and the faster the vessel is sailing.
FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR FOR AVAILABLE DRAUGHT INTERVALS AT KAUB
Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), provided by the German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG)
NUMBER OF CRITICAL LOW WATER DAYS FOR RHINE AND DANUBE GAUGE STATIONS
- Another method for assessing the quality of navigating conditions over an entire year is based on the concept of counting the number of days when water levels are below a certain reference low water level, known as Equivalent Water Level (EWL) for the free-flowing sections of the Rhine and Low Navigable Water Level (LNWL) for the Danube. If water levels drop below this reference low-water level, this indicates a critically low navigation situation.
- The EWL is determined by the Central Commission for the Navigation of the Rhine (CCNR) for several gauge stations along the Rhine. The values are adapted every ten years, to take account of natural and anthropogenic changes.
- The equivalent water level 2012 came into force in 2014 and remained valid until the end of 2022. A new equivalent water level was introduced on 1 January 2023 (known as EWL 2022) and will be applicable until the end of 2031.
- Although the equivalent water level is measured in centimetres, the starting point of its determination is a flow concept. Indeed, equivalent flow values (indicated in the unit m3/s) measured against the benchmark levels are recalculated every ten years as flows within a 100-year time series. The equivalent flow values are then used to recalculate the corresponding equivalent water level (EWL) values against the benchmark levels every ten years. The EWL consequently includes the following definition: “The equivalent water level (EWL) is the water level occurring along the Rhine at an equivalent water flow falling below the long-term average for 20 days [per year] without ice”.
- For these 11 Rhine gauges, daily water level data were collected and analysed.
- The following figures show the number of days below the equivalent water level for the above-mentioned gauge stations.
- Between 2015 and 2024, the two years with the highest number of low water days were 2018 and 2022. In the year 2024, water level conditions were overall positive, as the number of days below the equivalent water level was 0 for all Rhine gauge stations considered.
- Despite the favourable navigating conditions in 2023 and 2024, the continued efforts to strengthen the resilience and reliability of IWT to low water periods remain necessary. Indeed, under the influence of climate change, longer periods of drought and more extreme events are expected.
- Regarding high waters, navigation was stopped for a few days at some specific sections of the Rhine at the beginning of June 2024. This high-water episode was mainly present on the Upper and on the Middle Rhine, but not on the Lower Rhine. An analysis of transport development in June 2024 does not indicate that transport was affected negatively in this period by high waters. One main reason was that the high-water phenomenon was rather short-lasting which meant that possible cargo losses could be made up within one month.
- The reference low water level of the Danube is known as ‘Low Navigable Water Level (LNWL)’. It is defined as the water level exceeded on 94.0% of days in a year (i.e. on 343 days) during ice-free periods over a reference of several decades.30
- Based on this definition, the number of days below the Low Navigable Water Level (LNWL) can be calculated for the Danube.
- For 11 important gauge stations on the Danube, daily water level data were collected and analysed by the Danube Commission. The figures below show the number of days per year on which the actual water levels fell below the Low Navigable Water Level.
- Statistics Netherlands (CBS) collects freight rate data from a panel of Dutch IWT companies. The price levels are based on fixed routes for which questionnaires are sent out twice a quarter. They comprise the sailing costs including fuel and low water surcharges and exclude cargo handling costs. Overall, a gradual and steady increase is observed for freight rates, which temporarily spiked in 2022/23 due to low water occurrence.
- The freight rate data show a reduction after the high points that were reached in the low water year of 2022. However, despite water levels in 2023 and 2024 returning to normality, freight rates did not return to the level of the years 2020 and 2021. In the long term, this could lead to a loss of market shares for inland navigation. Despite the contraction in cargo volume, freight rates have still been maintained reasonably well. One reason for this is that net vessel capacity overall is barely growing (see chapter 6). A second reason is that costs in inland navigation are rising. This is in particular the case for personnel costs which are being driven up by the scarcity of personnel. Rates for boatmasters, for instance, have risen sharply.
- Figure 4 illustrates the liquid cargo spot market freight rate index for gasoil for ARA-Rhine transport (yearly averages). To some extent, the series follows a rising trend. The low water periods, which occurred in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022, are clearly visible as positive peaks. In 2024, freight rates were at an average level but much lower than in 2023. The overall rising trend could be due to high operational costs in inland navigation. This is especially due to personnel costs which are rising, due to the scarcity of personnel.
- The observed trends are almost identical for the three different geographical entities shown – two stretches of the Rhine (Lower Rhine, Upper Rhine) and the Main affluent.
- For the liquid cargo transport within the extended ARA region, between Amsterdam, Antwerp, Flushing, Ghent, Rotterdam and Terneuzen, a dataset on spot market freight rates provided by the tanker barge cooperation CITBO31 was analysed. The shares of the different product groups within cargo transported were as follows:
– Gasoil and components: share of 37% in 2024 (41% in 2023 and 38% in 2022)
– Gasoline and components: share of 37% in 2024 (37% in 2023 and 29% in 2022)
– Biodiesel: share of 13% in 2024 (18% in 2023 and 26% in 2022)
– Chemicals: share of 4% in 2024 (2% in 2023 and 6% in 2022)
– Heavy products: share of 8% in 2024 (0.2% in 2023 and 1% in 2022). - Of all liquid cargo transport in 2024, the four ports with the highest shares are represented as follows:
– in loaded cargo, volumes handled in these ports accounted for 84% and,
– in unloaded cargo, volumes handled in these ports accounted for 70%. - Around 2/3 of all cargo loading takes place in the two ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp. Together with the Port of Amsterdam, the share of loaded volumes in these three ports accounts for more than 3/4 (77%) of all liquid cargo transported by CITBO members. These figures reflect a rather high concentration of loaded volumes on the ARA ports.
- Compared to the figures for loading the vessels, the figures for unloading the cargo show a somewhat greater geographical diversity. In 2024, the two ports of Rotterdam and Antwerp accounted for a share of 47% of all cargo unloaded, and the three ARA ports together accounted for 65% (approximately 2/3). This higher geographical diversity reflects the delivery of mineral oil products to a range of depots and customers in different western European regions. Around 11% of all cargo unloading takes place in ports outside Belgium and the Netherlands. For cargo loading, this share is only 4%.
- A freight rate index was calculated for the four main different product segments.32 From these indices, it can be observed that low waters (in 2018 and 2022) had a strong influence on freight rates for all product segments. In 2023 and 2024, freight rates mainly followed a downward trend. In the case of biodiesel and chemicals, this downward trend reached a more or less typical level which was similar to the levels reached between the two low water periods of 2018 and 2022. For gasoil and components, and for gasoline and components, the freight rate level was still higher than before the low water period of 2022.
- Low water periods are an important influencing factor for the level of freight rates, as has been seen previously. Other influencing factors exist:
– The transport demand which is linked to industry production and the overall economic situation.
– The supply/demand relationship. The supply is hereby measured by the available fleet while demand is measured by transport demand.
– Operational costs, which can increase due to higher fuel costs or higher personnel costs.
– The journey time of a trip is another factor that influences costs. A longer journey time leads to higher costs, thereby contributing to higher transport prices. - With an average of 28 hours per trip, biodiesel had the longest journey time in 2024. The second longest journey time was observed for gasoline and components (25 hours). Chemicals followed, ranking third (20 hours), and gasoil and components ranked fourth (18 hours). The following figure shows the correlation between journey time and the freight rate index for gasoil and components as well as for gasoline and components.
- Additional influencing factors for freight rates exist. Overall, it can be observed that chemicals have the highest spot market freight rates in absolute terms (€/tonne), followed by gasoline and its components, biodiesel and gasoil and components. The high freight rate levels for chemical transport cannot be explained by journey times, as these are rather short for chemicals (see above). The high freight rates can be attributed primarily to the relatively expensive vessels for chemical transport, often with stainless steel tanks, as well as the high safety standards and high cleaning costs. The significant demand on the shippers’ side to transport their chemicals by IWW also leads to higher freight rate levels for chemical products within the CITBO database.
- As well as the spot market rates, the CITBO data also contain time charter data. These data allow the calculation of an index of average time charter rates, based on the rental prices of vessels per day. The quarterly index of average rental prices per day is shown in the following graph. All product segments are taken into account. The index shows an increase at the end of 2022 due to the low water period. In 2023, time charter rates were lower than in 2022, but remained at a higher level than before the 2022 low water period. In 2024, the average time charter rates were higher than in 2023, but lower than in 2022.
- Based on an annual report by the Dutch research company Panteia on the cost development in inland navigation, an increase can be seen in 2024 for all cost components except fuel costs, which decreased. In recent years, it can be observed that labour costs and repair/maintenance costs have been the main upward drivers of inland navigation costs. Regarding fuel costs, they reached a peak during the energy crisis (2022-2023) and are now declining, even though they remain at a much higher level than before the energy crisis.
RHINE GAUGE STATIONS
TABLE 1: HYDRAULIC PARAMETERS FOR IMPORTANT RHINE GAUGE STATIONS *
| Gauge station | Guaranteed navigation channel depth | Equivalent water level 2022 |
|---|---|---|
| Tiel (Waal, NL) | 280 cm | 255 cm |
| Nijmegen (Waal, NL) | 280 cm | 516 cm |
| IJsselkop (Nederrijn, NL) | 280 cm | 683 cm |
| Lobith (Lower Rhine, NL) | 280 cm | 733 cm |
| Emmerich (Lower Rhine, DE) | 280 cm | 74 cm |
| Duisburg-Ruhrort (Lower Rhine, DE) | 280 cm | 227 cm |
| Cologne (Lower Rhine, DE) | 250 cm | 139 cm |
| Kaub (Middle Rhine, DE) | 190 cm | 77 cm |
| Oestrich (Middle Rhine, DE) | 190 cm | 92 cm |
| Maxau (Upper Rhine, DE) | 210 cm | 372 cm |
| Basel (Upper Rhine, CH) | 300 cm | 501 cm |
Sources: German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), Rijkswaterstaat
* Waal and Nederrijn are two branches of the Rhine delta in the Netherlands.
Number of days below Equivalent Water Level (EWL)
Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), provided by the German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG), and from Rijkswaterstaat
DANUBE GAUGE STATIONS
TABLE 2: HYDRAULIC PARAMETERS FOR IMPORTANT DANUBE GAUGE STATIONS
| Gauge station | Minimum draught in cargo transport endeavoured by waterway administration | Low navigable water level |
|---|---|---|
| Pfelling (DE) | 250 cm | 290 cm |
| Hofkirchen (DE) | 250 cm | 207 cm |
| Kienstock (AUT) | 250 cm | 161 cm |
| Wildungsmauer (AUT) | 250 cm | 155 cm |
| Devin (SK) | 250 cm | 144 cm |
| Budapest (HU) | 250 cm | 102 cm |
| Bezdan (RS) | 250 cm | -10 cm |
| Calafat (RO) | 250 cm | -5 cm |
| Calarasi (RO) | 250 cm | -32 cm |
| Lom (BG) | 250 cm | 144 cm |
| Silistra (BG) | 250 cm | 80 cm |
Source: Danube Commission
Number of days below the low navigable water level (LNWL)
Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), provided by the German Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG), data from the Federal State of Lower Austria and the Danube Commission
FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION
CBS FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR THE RHINE REGION
FIGURE 3: CBS FREIGHT RATE INDICES PER QUARTER (2021 = 100) *
Source: CBS (Binnenvaartdiensten; prijsindex), Table 85817 2021=100
* The prices of established routes are observed twice a quarter and include fuel and low water surcharges but exclude loading and unloading. The time of observation is in the middle and at the end of the quarter. All prices are nominal prices.
LIQUID CARGO FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION
FIGURE 4: INSIGHTS GLOBAL FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORT IN THE ARA-RHINE AREA (INDEX 2021 = 100)
Sources: CCNR calculation based on Insights Global
CITBO LIQUID CARGO FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR THE FARAG REGION
-
Geography of the CITBO transport activity and product segment structure
| Port of loading | Cargo volume - share in % | Port of unloading | Cargo volume - share in % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rotterdam | 34% in 2024 (in 2023: 28%) | Rotterdam | 25% in 2024 (in 2023: 21%) |
| Antwerp | 33% in 2024 (in 2023: 34%) | Antwerp | 22% in 2024 (in 2023: 14%) |
| Amsterdam | 10% in 2024 (in 2023: 8%) | Amsterdam | 18% in 2024 (in 2023: 18%) |
| Flushing | 7% in 2024 (in 2023: 5%) | Flushing | 5% in 2024 (in 2023: 0%) |
| All other ports | 16% in 2024 (in 2023: 25%) | All other ports | 30% in 2024 (37% in 2023) |
Results of the calculation of freight rate indices (spot market data)
FIGURES 5, 6, 7 AND 8: CITBO FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR LIQUID CARGO SEGMENTS (INDEX Q3 2017 = 100)
Sources: CCNR analysis based on spot market data provided by CITBO
Other influencing factors for CITBO freight rates
FIGURE 9: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN JOURNEY TIME OF A TRIP AND FREIGHT RATE INDEX VALUE (INDEX Q3 2017 = 100) *
Sources: CCNR analysis based on spot market data provided by CITBO
* The dots in the graphs represent the combination of average journey time and average freight rate index for certain months between July 2017 and December 2024.
CITBO time charter rates
FIGURE 10: CITBO TIME CHARTER RATES (INDEX Q2 2017 = 100)
Source: CCNR analysis based on CITBO data
DEVELOPMENT OF COSTS IN INLAND NAVIGATION
FIGURE 11: DEVELOPMENT OF COSTS IN INLAND NAVIGATION PER YEAR (2009-2025; INDEX 2008 = 100)
Sources: Rijkswaterstaat based on Panteia reports “Kostenontwikkeling binnenvaart”
* Capital costs include interest rates, insured value of the vessels, insurance and other costs.