• According to Eurostat figures, 5,486 IWW freight transport companies were active in Europe (EU-27 plus Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Switzerland) in 2020. Around 88% (4,809 in absolute numbers) are registered in Rhine countries. In 2020 the number of employed persons in freight transport was 22,417. Rhine countries account for 75%, Danube countries for 17% and companies in countries outside the Rhine and Danube regions for 8%.
• The number of IWW passenger companies in Europe (EU-27 plus Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Switzerland) was 4,406 in 2021. The geographical distribution shows that 42% of them are registered in Rhine countries. Southern Europe accounts for 26%, eastern Europe for 17% and Scandinavia for 11%. The total number of persons employed in European IWW passenger transport amounted to 19,908 in 2022.
• In 2022, a turnover of approximately 7.5 billion euro was registered for IWW freight companies in the EU-27 (plus Switzerland and Serbia), which represents an increase of +25% compared to 2021. For IWW passenger companies, approximately 2.8 billion euro was registered in 2022, an increase of +72% compared to 2021.

 
Most data for this chapter are available until 2022.⁵⁵
 

FIGURES 1 AND 2: DEVELOPMENT OF NUMBER OF COMPANIES AND EMPLOYMENT IN FREIGHT AND PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN THE INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT SECTOR IN EUROPE *




Sources: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] until 2020 and [sbs_sc_ovw] from 2021 onwards
* Data for 2021 and 2022 in freight transport are estimated.

 

COMPANIES AND EMPLOYMENT IN FREIGHT TRANSPORT

• According to Eurostat figures, 5,486 IWW freight transport companies were active in Europe (EU-27 plus Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Switzerland) in 2020.⁵⁶ Around 88% (4,809 in absolute numbers) are registered in Rhine countries.⁵⁷ In the Netherlands alone, 3,279 IWW freight companies are counted, which represents 60% of the total number in Europe and 68% of the number in Rhine countries.
• The number of companies in Danube countries is relatively low (201 which is equivalent to a share of 4%), compared to the share that the Danube has within total transport performance on EU-27 inland waterways (18%). It should be mentioned that companies in the Danube region have a far higher number of employed persons on average than companies in the Rhine region. Eastern European countries taken together (including Danube countries) account for 9% of all IWW freight companies in the EU-27, and southern European and Scandinavian countries account for 2% each.

 

FIGURE 3: NUMBER OF COMPANIES IN IWW FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN EUROPE IN 2022 *


Source: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] and [sbs_sc_ovw]
* Data for Belgium and Serbia refer to 2020.

 
• The number of employed persons in freight transport includes self-employed, helping family members and employees. The total number of this variable was at 22,417 in 2020.⁵⁸ Rhine countries account for 75%, Danube countries for 17% and companies in countries outside the Rhine and Danube regions for 8%.

 

FIGURE 4: NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED IN IWW FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN EUROPE IN 2022 *


Source: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] and [sbs_sc_ovw]
* Data for Belgium and Serbia refer to 2020.

 
• It should be noted that figures obtained from national labour market institutions or from other national offices might differ substantially from figures obtained from Eurostat, due to different statistical labour market concepts. For cross-country comparisons, Eurostat is treated as the preferred source because data are harmonised across countries and are thus comparable.

 
 

COMPANIES AND EMPLOYMENT IN PASSENGER TRANSPORT

• The number of IWW passenger companies in Europe (EU-27 plus Bosnia-Herzegovina, Serbia and Switzerland) was 4,406 in 2021.⁵⁹ The geographical distribution shows that 42% of them are registered in Rhine countries. Southern Europe accounts for 26%, eastern Europe for 17% and Scandinavia for 11%. Danube countries are considered in this sense a part of eastern Europe. If they were counted separately, they would represent 12%.

 

FIGURE 5: NUMBER OF IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT COMPANIES IN EUROPE IN 2022


Source: Eurostat [sbs_sc_ovw]

 
• The total number of persons employed in European IWW passenger transport amounted to 19,908 in 2022 and was therefore +8% higher than in the previous year. The explanation for this increase is the recovery from the Covid pandemic, which had led to a sharp decrease in passenger transport and had an impact on employment.

 

FIGURE 6: NUMBER OF PERSONS EMPLOYED IN IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE IN 2022


Source: Eurostat [sbs_sc_ovw]
* Data for Malta refer to 2021.

 
• In the order of 74% of all persons employed in EU inland waterway passenger transport are employed in Rhine countries. The share of Danube countries amounts to 12%.

 

TURNOVER

TURNOVER IN IWW FREIGHT TRANSPORT

• In 2022, for IWW freight companies in the EU-27 (plus Switzerland and Serbia), a turnover of approximately 7.5 billion Euro was registered, an increase of +25% compared to 2021 (6.0 billion in 2021). Rhine countries⁶⁰ accounted for approximately 6.9 billion Euro (92% of the turnover in the EU-27, plus Switzerland and Serbia), an increase of +18% compared to 2021.

 

FIGURE 7: ANNUAL TURNOVER IN IWW FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES
(IN MILLION EURO) *




Sources: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2], [sbs_sc_ovw], Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS-NL) for data before 2021, Swiss Federal Tax Administration (FTA-CH) for data before 2021, CCNR estimation based on data from Eurostat for France for the year 2019.
For Switzerland and the Netherlands, a break in the data can be observed from 2021 onwards. This is due to the use of Eurostat figures from 2021 onwards derived form a new database [sbs_sc_ovw]. Turnover data were missing in the former Eurostat database [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] for these two countries, leading to the use of national databases from CBS and FTA for years before 2021. Therefore, for these two countries, data available up until 2020 cannot be compared with data from 2021 onwards.
* The value for Dutch companies for data until 2020 are an estimation based on net turnover data for the entire inland navigation sector in the Netherlands. Therefore, the statistical office CBS estimates that 92% of total turnover is related to freight transport. Value for Swiss companies for data until 2020 was converted into Euro according to the yearly average exchange rate.

 

TABLE 1: TURNOVER IN IWW FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN RHINE COUNTRIES (IN MILLION EURO)

	2021	2022
Dutch companies	3,202	4,017
German companies	1,910	2,019
French companies	364	406
Belgian companies	222	259
Swiss companies	174	220
Rhine countries *	5,872	6,921


Source: Eurostat [sbs_sc_ovw]
* Values for Belgium were estimated.

 
• Turnover generated in inland waterway freight transport companies registered in Danube countries amounted to 570 million Euro in 2022, an increase of +51% compared to 2021.

 

TABLE 2: TURNOVER IN IWW FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (IN MILLION EURO)

	2021	2022
Serbian companies	109	109
Romanian companies	118	238
Hungarian companies	50	69
Slovakian companies	37	49
Bulgarian companies	33	60
Austrian companies	27	43
Croatian companies	2	2
Danube countries *	376	570


Source: Eurostat [sbs_sc_ovw]
* Values for Serbia were estimated.

 
• Within European regions outside of the Rhine and Danube area, the countries with the highest turnover (all values for 2022) are Italy (59 million Euro), Sweden (52 million Euro), Poland (52 million Euro) and the Czech Republic (36 million Euro).

 

 

TURNOVER IN IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT

• Regarding the turnover in EU (plus Switzerland and Serbia) for IWW passenger companies in 2022, approximately 2.8 billion Euro was registered, an increase of +72% compared to 2021 (1.6 billion in 2021).
• Rhine countries accounted for approximately 2.3 billion Euro, an increase of +58% compared to 2021 and a share of 83% within total IWW passenger turnover in Europe.
• It is important to note that the following turnover figures include those generated by all passenger market segments (day trips, river cruises or ferries). For some countries, the turnover figures are based almost entirely on river cruise activities or day trip activities.

 

FIGURE 8: ANNUAL TURNOVER IN IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN MOST RELEVANT COUNTRIES
(IN MILLION EURO) *


Sources: Eurostat [sbs_na_1a_se_r2] until 2020, [sbs_sc_ovw] from 2021 onwards, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (CBS-NL) for data before 2021, Swiss Federal Tax Administration (FTA-CH) for data before 2021 and CCNR estimation based on data from Eurostat only for France for the year 2019.
For Switzerland and the Netherlands, a break in the data can be observed from 2021 onwards. This is due to the use of Eurostat figures from 2021 onwards derived form a new database [sbs_sc_ovw]. Turnover data for these two countries were missing in the former Eurostat database [sbs_na_1a_se_r2], leading to the use of national databases from CBS and FTA for years before 2021. Therefore, for these two countries, data until 2020 cannot be compared with data from 2021 onwards.
* The values for Dutch companies for years until 2020 are an estimation based on net turnover data for the entire inland navigation sector in the Netherlands. In this instance, the statistical office CBS estimates that 8% of total turnover is related to passenger transport. Value for Swiss companies until 2020 was converted to Euro according to the yearly average exchange rate. Data unavailable for many countries until 2020.

 

TABLE 3: TURNOVER IN IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN RHINE COUNTRIES (IN MILLION EURO)

	2021	2022
Dutch companies	437	773
Swiss companies	507	623
German companies	315	518
French companies	204	387
Belgian companies	11	24
Rhine countries *	1,474	2,325


Source: Eurostat [sbs_sc_ovw]
* The value for Belgium for 2021 was estimated.

 
• Danube countries accounted for approximately 168 million Euro, an increase of +77% compared to 2021.
• For companies in Danube countries, the existing data show significantly lower values than in Rhine countries. This can be explained by lower wage levels in Danube countries. Lower wages and therefore lower personnel costs imply lower total costs, especially in passenger transport which is quite labour-intensive. Lower total costs, in return, imply lower price levels and therefore also lower turnover figures.
• As a second explanation, it should be recalled that large parts of the activities in passenger transport on the Danube, in particular river cruising, is carried out by companies from the Rhine region.

 

TABLE 4: TURNOVER IN IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (IN MILLION EURO)

	2021	2022
Austrian companies	56	104
Hungarian companies	26	31
Romanian companies	11	20
Slovakian companies	n.d.	11
Serbian companies	2	n.d.
Croatian companies	n.d.	2
Danube countries *	95	168


Source: Eurostat [sbs_sc_ovw]
* Without missing values.
 
• Two countries in Europe outside the Rhine and Danube region with a considerable level of turnover in IWW passenger transport are Italy (402 million Euro in 2022) and Sweden (199 million Euro in 2022). It can be noted that for Italy, the turnover is almost entirely generated from day trips activity. Both countries registered a considerable increase in 2022 due to the recovery from the Covid pandemic.

 
 

UNIT LABOUR COSTS PER PERSON EMPLOYED

 

• In inland waterway transport, the level of unit labour costs per person employed depends upon the region in Europe. The highest values in IWW passenger transport are observed in Switzerland and in Norway. For IWW freight transport, the highest values are found in Finland and in Austria. In general terms, unit labour costs per person employed are relatively high in northern and western Europe, and relatively low in eastern Europe.

 

FIGURE 9: UNIT LABOUR COSTS PER PERSON EMPLOYED PER COUNTRY IN IWW PASSENGER TRANSPORT IN 2021 (IN 1,000 EURO)


Source: Eurostat [sbs_sc_ovw]
 

FIGURE 10: NIT LABOUR COSTS PER PERSON EMPLOYED PER COUNTRY IN IWW FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN 2021 (IN 1,000 EURO)


Source: Eurostat [sbs_sc_ovw]

• The number of active river cruise vessels in 2023 reached 408, representing 60,702 beds in total (compared to 410 active vessels for 60,639 beds in 2022). The newbuilding activity has been rather slow since the Covid-19 pandemic, with only four being built in 2023, but it is expected to pick up again in 2024 and 2025.
• In 2022, the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine led to an increase in demand for hotel capacity for war refugees, and to some river cruise vessels being used as floating hotels in parallel to their usual cruising activities. Some older vessels have even been permanently converted. This trend continued in 2023, with 16 vessels having been permanently converted into floating hotels in 2023 compared to only six in 2022.
• The yearly cruise vessel movement figures for the Danube, Rhine and Moselle, as well as the catch-up phenomenon for capacity utilisation on the Danube in 2023, confirmed the general recovery of the river cruise sector in Europe. In addition, 1.22 million passengers from all over the world, notably from USA and Canada, travelled on European rivers in 2023, the Rhine and the Danube being the most frequented rivers in Europe.

FLEET FOR RIVER CRUISES⁴⁵

• The active river cruise fleet in Europe,⁴⁶ which represents more than 40% of the world active river cruise fleet, is mainly concentrated on central European waterways,⁴⁷ accounting for nearly 75% of the total river cruise fleet in Europe. In 2023, the number of active river cruise vessels in Europe reached 408,⁴⁸ representing 60,702 beds in total, compared to 410 active vessels with 60,639 beds in 2022.
• Despite the Covid-19 pandemic coming to an end, the new building activity for river cruises remained rather slow in 2022 and 2023 but is expected to pick up again in 2024 and 2025. Despite a sharp decrease in inflation, the newbuilding activity continued to decline in 2023 due to persistently high shipbuilding costs as well as lower demand caused by geopolitical and economic uncertainty.
• The Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine has spurred an increase in the demand of hotel capacity for war refugees from Ukraine, adding to an already rising number of people asking for asylum in Europe. As a result, some vessels, in parallel to their cruising activities outside the main touristic seasons, are being used as floating hotels. Some vessels, particularly those that are more than 50 years old, have even been permanently converted to floating hotels; this was the case for six vessels in 2022 and 16 in 2023. In early 2024, 18 such vessels were declared; it is unknown whether they will return to the cruise market.

 

FIGURE 1: NUMBER OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS IN THE EU BY REGION OF OPERATION (2004 – 2024) *


Source: A. Hader, The River Cruise Fleet Handbook (May 2024)
* 2024: based on order books as of May 2024, of which 18 are temporarily being used as floating hotels.

 
• During the 2023 season, four new vessels were built (compared to five in 2022), as was planned in the order books and confirming the downward trend observed over the last years. However, seven new vessels are planned to be delivered in 2024, which might mark the start of a return to newbuilding, and this figure is even expected to double in 2025.

  

FIGURE 2: NEW RIVER CRUISE VESSELS FOR THE EUROPEAN MARKET 2004-2025 *


Source: A. Hader, The River Cruise Fleet Handbook (May 2024)
* 2024 and 2025: based on order books as of May 2024

 
• In 2023, the four new vessels brought an additional capacity of 720 beds (compared to 980 beds in 2022) to the river cruise market in Europe. An additional capacity of 1,056 beds is expected for the year 2024.

 

FIGURE 3: NEW CRUISE CAPACITIES FROM 2020 TO 2024 PER REGION OF OPERATION (NUMBER OF BEDS) *


Source: A. Hader, The River Cruise Fleet Handbook (May 2024)
* R-M-D= Rhine/Main/Main-Danube Canal/Danube
2024: based on order books as of May 2024.

 
• After a decrease between 2014 and 2018, the average number of beds in new cruise vessels has since been rising continuously. In 2022, the important increase in this figure is explained by the entry into the market of the A-ROSA SENA which has a capacity of 280 beds. Apart from this unusually large vessel, the average number of beds in new river cruise vessels in 2023 remains consistent with this increase, although the prospects for 2024 point to its first decrease since 2018. This can be explained by the entry on the river cruise market of 3 vessels on the Douro with a rather small number of beds (between 102 and 120 each). The average number of beds in the other regions remains consistent with previous years.

 

FIGURE 4: AVERAGE NUMBER OF BEDS IN NEW RIVER CRUISE VESSELS IN EUROPE BY YEAR OF CONSTRUCTION *


Source: A. Hader, The River Cruise Fleet Handbook (May 2024)
* Figure for 2024: based on order books as of May 2024.

DEMAND FOR RIVER CRUISES

• The year 2023 confirms the recovery of the river cruise sector, with values similar to pre-pandemic levels with regard to vessels’ movements. Figures also confirm the catch-up phenomenon concerning the number of passengers embarking on river cruises and the passenger capacity utilisation rates of vessels.
• Regarding the European travel market, 1.22 million passengers from all over the world travelled on European rivers⁴⁹in 2023, which showed a positive development in comparison with 2022, according to the stakeholders interviewed. In addition to this, the current business expectations have become increasingly positive for land and river stakeholders since 2021.
• With regard to the key figures, the three most important groups of passengers represented were from USA/Canada (515,157), Germany/Austria/Switzerland (450,701) and France (100,100). Passengers from the first two groups mainly travelled on the Rhine (and its tributaries) and the Danube which were the most frequented rivers in Europe. Moreover, higher-priced river cruise voyages were notably sold in overseas markets, USA and Canada being over-represented.⁵⁰⁵¹
• As regards the French national rivers and canals, the level of activity was higher in 2023 than in 2019 and a complete reversal of the trend in terms of attendance (+20.14% compared with 2022) was observed.⁵²In addition to this, small vessels enabling the transport of two to 12 people are developing more and more. Operators offering this type of service are intent on innovating and resolved to protect the environment, using for instance electric propulsion.
• The yearly cruise vessel movement figures for the Danube, Rhine and Moselle confirm the positive tendency which has emerged since 2021. In terms of vessel movements, the cruising activity on the Upper Rhine was +0.6% above the level of 2019. However, the cruising activity on the Upper Danube (at the Austrian-German border) and the Moselle were respectively -6.4% and -1% under the pre-pandemic levels of 2019.
• The utilisation rate of the river cruise vessels passing the locks is also a key indicator in assessing the recovery of the river cruise sector. The year 2023 confirmed the positive evolutions already observed in 2022, as suggested by the data obtained for the Danube river cruise sector (see following box – focus on capacity utilisation in the river cruise sector).

 

FIGURES 5, 6 AND 7: YEARLY NUMBER OF CRUISE VESSEL TRANSITS ON DANUBE, RHINE AND MOSELLE *






Sources: German Waterway and Shipping Administration (WSV) and Moselle Commission
* Danube = Upper Danube, Austrian-German border (lock of Jochenstein)
Rhine = Upper Rhine (lock of Iffezheim)
Moselle = lock of Koblenz

 
• For three geographical points along the Danube (two on the Upper Danube and one on the Middle Danube), data regarding vessel movements and the number of passengers is available from 2015 onwards. This geographical distinction makes it possible to observe differences in cruising intensity on the different stretches of the Danube. The analysis shows that the activity is the highest on the Upper Danube. Cruising activity on the Middle Danube south of Budapest is lower than on the Danube stretches upstream of Budapest.

FIGURES 8, 9 AND 10: EVOLUTION OF VESSEL MOVEMENTS AND PASSENGER NUMBERS PER STRETCHES OF THE DANUBE AND AVERAGE NUMBER OF PASSENGERS PER VESSEL *

 
FOCUS ON CAPACITY UTILISATION IN THE RIVER CRUISE SECTOR

• The analysis of the capacity utilisation of a fleet enables a thorough overview to be carried out of how the supply/demand relationship evolves throughout the years.
• The degree of capacity utilisation of river cruise vessels on the Upper Danube can be calculated on the basis of data provided by the German Waterway Administration on river cruise vessels passing the lock of Jochenstein (German-Austrian border) on the Danube.

 

FIGURE 11: DEGREE OF CAPACITY UTILISATION OF RIVER CRUISE VESSELS ON THE DANUBE (IN %) *


Source: German Waterway Administration
* At the lock of Jochenstein (German-Austrian border)
Capacity utilisation = ratio of number of passengers divided by passenger capacity

 
• This figure brings to light the recovery of the river cruise sector on the Danube.⁵⁴ The catch-up phenomenon for capacity utilisation which had been observed in 2022 was confirmed in 2023. Furthermore, between August 2023 and September 2023, the capacity utilisation experienced a peak leading to higher values than before the pandemic, as illustrated in the figure above.

 
 

AGE STRUCTURE OF THE RHINE PASSENGER FLEET

• Concerning the passenger fleet, it is divided into passenger ferries, river cruise ships, and passenger day-trip vessels. The figure below depicts the current fleet and its evolution over time. However, it is worth noting that inactive vessels may be included in these figures, and some of the newest vessels may not be accounted for. Most passenger ferries and day-trip vessels (which represent 76% of all passenger vessels) were constructed in the 20th century, but there has nevertheless been significant newbuilding activity in the 21st century. The river cruise new build activity remains lower in 2023 compared to the pre-Covid crisis.

 

FIGURE 12: COMMISSIONING YEARS FOR THE RHINE PASSENGER FLEET OVER TIME (NUMBER OF INLAND VESSELS)


Sources: IVR, CCNR analysis
Note that one river cruise vessel and six day-trip vessels have an unknown year of construction. The database of IVR accounts for active vessels but also includes some inactive vessels, in particular those commissioned in earlier years.

• The newbuilding rate for dry and liquid vessels showed an increase in 2023, compared to 2022. Thirty new vessels were added to the dry cargo fleet in western Europe, and 45 new vessels added to the tanker fleet.
• The average loading capacity for newly built dry cargo vessels amounted to 2,664 tonnes in 2023 which was a slight increase compared to the average of 2,499 tonnes in 2022. The average loading capacity of the new tanker vessels increased from 2,868 tonnes in 2022 to 4,022 tonnes in 2023.
• In 2023, the capacity utilisation of the fleet was lower than in 2022. This was due to a reduced transport demand and higher water levels. The strongest reduction in capacity utilisation was recorded for large dry cargo vessels.

SIZE OF FLEETS PER MACRO-REGION AND COUNTRY IN EUROPE

TABLE 1: SIZE OF FLEETS (NUMBER OF INLAND VESSELS) PER MACRO-REGION AND VESSEL TYPE IN EUROPE

	Dry cargo vessels	Liquid cargo vessels	Push & tugs	Total number of vessels
Rhine fleet	6,928	1,398	1,332	9,658
Danube fleet	2,652	204	499	3,355
Other countries *	1,561	26 #	719	2,306
Total number of vessels	11,141	1,628	2,550	15,319


* Other countries = Poland, Czech Republic, Italy, United Kingdom, Finland, Lithuania
# Comprises 9 tanker vessels in Poland, 1 in the Czech Republic and 16 in Lithuania, but an unknown number in the other countries.
Sources: 1) Rhine countries: VNF (France), CBS/Rijkswaterstaat (Netherlands), ITB (Belgium), German Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), inland waterway register of Luxembourg, Swiss Waterway Administration 2) Danube countries: Danube Commission 3) Other countries: Eurostat [iww_eq_loadcap], [iww_eq_age], Ministry of Transport of the Czech Republic, Statistics Poland, Statistics Lithuania
For push boats and tugs: Eurostat [iww_eq_age]

 
• The following figures show the number of dry and liquid cargo vessels taken together (self-propelled vessels and barges) and the number of push and tugboats per country in Europe.

 

FIGURE 1: NUMBER OF DRY AND LIQUID CARGO VESSELS PER COUNTRY IN EUROPE *


Sources: Eurostat [iww_eq_loadcap] and national sources for Rhine countries
* Most data are from 2022 and 2023.

 

FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF PUSH BOATS AND TUGBOATS PER COUNTRY IN EUROPE *


Source: Eurostat [iww_eq_age]
* Most data are from 2022.

 

EVOLUTION OF THE RHINE FLEET

DRY CARGO FLEET IN RHINE COUNTRIES


• Fleet data used for this part are entirely based on national fleet data from waterway administrations. The reason for this is that a distinction between dry and liquid cargo vessels is only available in national fleet databases and in the IVR database, but not in the Eurostat databases.
• Data used for the Dutch fleet contain the inland vessels that are registered in the Netherlands, and which were active (in the Netherlands as well as abroad) in 2023.³³ The total number of dry cargo vessels registered in Rhine countries was, according to these sources, 6,928 in 2023, compared to 7,288 in 2022 and 7,437 in 2021. As these figures show, there has been a clear downward trend, in particular in the most recent past. This downward trend is due to problems of company succession in the dry cargo market segment, but also due to the more recent export of dry cargo vessels from the Rhine to the Danube region within the Solidarity Lanes initiative.

 

FIGURE 3: NUMBER OF DRY CARGO VESSELS IN RHINE COUNTRIES IN 2023 *


Source: CCNR based on national data (see Table 1)
* Data for Germany relate to 2022.

 

FIGURES 4 AND 5: DRY CARGO FLEET IN RHINE COUNTRIES *




Source: CCNR based on national data (see Table 1)
* Data for Germany relate to 2022.

 
• The total loading capacity of the dry cargo Rhine fleet has remained rather constant since 2008 and amounted to 10.0 million tonnes in 2023. The average loading capacity per vessel was 1,447 tonnes in 2023, compared to 1,296 in 2012.
• It is often cited that the number of small vessels in the inland navigation sector is decreasing. Long-term data tend to confirm this hypothesis (see 2022 Annual Report, Chapter 6).

 

LIQUID CARGO FLEET IN RHINE COUNTRIES

• The share of the Dutch fleet within all liquid cargo vessels in Rhine countries is 52%. Switzerland and Luxembourg have relatively high numbers of tanker vessels (share of 4% and 2% respectively). The total number of tanker vessels has decreased since 2012, as the number of vessels being phased out (mostly single hull vessels) was higher than the number of new (double hull) vessels entering the market.

 

FIGURE 6: NUMBER OF LIQUID CARGO VESSELS IN RHINE COUNTRIES IN 2023 *


Source: CCNR based on national data (see Table 1)
* Data for Germany relate to 2022.

 

FIGURES 7 AND 8: LIQUID CARGO FLEET IN RHINE COUNTRIES *




Source: CCNR based on national data (see Table 1)
* Data for Germany relate to 2022.

 
• Despite a decline in the number of tanker vessels, the loading capacity of the entire tanker fleet has increased in recent years. This reflects the growing average size of newly built vessels in the tanker market. Due to this trend, the average loading capacity of a tanker vessel in Rhine countries has risen to 2,510 tonnes in 2023, compared to 1,919 tonnes in 2012.

 

EVOLUTION OF THE DANUBE FLEET

DRY CARGO FLEET IN THE DANUBE REGION

• According to the Danube Commission (DC) statistics (with clarification based on surveys of shipping companies in the DC Member States), by the end of 2017,³⁴ there were around 400 push boats, 242 tugs, 409 self-propelled dry cargo vessels, and circa 2,100 dry cargo barges in the Danube fleet (the German-flagged fleet is counted by port of registry on the Danube). More than 70% of the total transport volume is carried by pushed convoys, whose composition is set out in the table below, depending on the waterway class and shipping conditions.

 

TABLE 2: TYPE OF DRY CARGO TRANSPORT ON THE DANUBE (SHARE OF TOTAL TRANSPORT IN %)

Push boat + 7-9 pushed barges (lighters)	40-42%
Push boat + 6 lighters	20-23%
Push boat + 4 lighters	12-14%


Source: Danube Commission market observation
 
• The total Danube fleet of dry cargo vessels has diminished as from 2005. However, from the year 2014 onwards, this decreasing trend came to a halt, and the fleet size has now stabilised. The Romanian dry cargo fleet is the largest in the Danube area with a share of around 48% of all dry cargo vessels. Its size is increasing.

 

LIQUID CARGO FLEET IN THE DANUBE REGION

• According to the statistics of the Danube Commission (with clarification based on surveys of shipping companies in the DC Member States), by the end of 2017, there were 74 self-propelled tanker vessels and 128 tanker barges, with a total cargo capacity of around 0.22 million tonnes.³⁵

 

NEW VESSEL CONSTRUCTION IN RHINE COUNTRIES³⁶

• In 2023, newbuilding activity has accelerated compared to 2022, a year in which the newbuilding activity had slowed down acutely for several reasons (decline in transport of goods, cost increase in shipbuilding, uncertain macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions). Both the number of new dry cargo vessels and new liquid cargo vessels have increased significantly, with 32 new dry cargo vessels and 47 new liquid cargo vessels having been built, which is respectively 9 and 14 more than in 2022.

 

DRY CARGO

• The majority of the new dry cargo vessels entering the market in 2023 are registered in the Netherlands (23 out of 32), followed by Belgium (5 out of 32), with Germany, France, and Switzerland contributing very little to the total.

 

FIGURE 9: NEW DRY CARGO VESSELS COMING ON THE MARKET PER COUNTRY OF REGISTER (NUMBERS, 2011-2023)


Source: IVR
 
• As often, the most common loading capacity for newly built dry cargo vessels in 2023 was in the 3,000 < 4,000 tonnes range. The average loading capacity amounted to 2,664 tonnes which was a slight increase compared to the average of 2,499 tonnes in 2022.

 

TABLE 3: NEWLY BUILT DRY CARGO VESSELS ACCORDING TO LOADING CAPACITY

Loading capacity	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
0 < 1,000 t	5	4	4	17	5	1	5
1,000 < 2,000 t	6	4	7	7	0	5	6
2,000 < 3,000 t	7	8	12	8	3	8	2
3,000 < 4,000 t	16	6	13	14	11	7	16
> 4,000 t	2	3	6	1	2	0	3
Total	36	25	42	47	21	21	32


Source: IVR
Note that in 2023, for three newly built vessels, the deadweight was partly estimated due to initially missing values. Estimations were also made in the previous years.
 

TABLE 4 : NEWLY BUILT DRY CARGO VESSELS IN 2023 BY LENGTH

Length	Number of vessels
< 55 metres	5
55 to < 70 metres	2
70 to < 86 metres	5
86 to 110 metres	16
> 110 metres	4
Total	32


Sources: IVR, CCNR analysis

 

LIQUID CARGO

• According to the IVR database, 47 new tanker vessels entered the market in 2023, a significant increase compared to 2022, when only 31 were built. This number is closer to the figures of previous years, which were 46 in 2019, 56 in 2020, and 58 in 2021. As usual, most new vessels are registered in the Netherlands (31), followed by Germany (11).

 

FIGURE 10: NEW TANKER VESSELS COMING ON THE MARKET PER COUNTRY OF REGISTER (NUMBERS, 2011-2023)


Source: IVR
Note: two tanker vessels, which were excluded from tables 5 and 6 because of missing data, have nevertheless been included in this figure, explaining the difference in total number of newly built ships in 2023.
 
• The most common loading capacity of the new tanker vessels is in the category 2,000 < 3,000 tonnes, with 26 new tanker vessels in 2023. The overall average loading capacity increased from 2,868 tonnes in 2022 to 4,022 tonnes in 2023. This is solely explained by the high number of newbuilt vessels in the > 4,000 tonnes category in 2023 (15) compared to 2022 when only two such vessels were built. In general, an increasing number of vessels are built to have a loading capacity exceeding 4,000 tonnes, often by several thousand tonnes, confirming the trend towards larger vessels being built in the liquid cargo segment observed in recent years.

 

TABLE 5: NEWLY BUILT TANKER VESSELS ACCORDING TO LOADING CAPACITY

Loading capacity	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023
0 < 1,000 t	1	2	1	0	0	0	0
1,000 < 2,000 t	14	13	16	10	14	4	3
2,000 < 3,000 t	14	12	16	23	19	24	26
3,000 < 4,000 t	2	4	3	9	13	1	1
> 4,000 t	5	3	10	14	12	2	15
Total	36	34	46	54	58	31	45


Sources: IVR, CCNR analysis
Note that in 2023, for six newly built vessels, the deadweight was partly estimated due to initially missing values. Estimations were also made in the previous years. Two additional tanker vessels were excluded from the analysis, as they were not put in service by the time this report was published.

 

TABLE 6: NEWLY BUILT TANKER VESSELS IN 2023 BY LENGTH

Length	Number of vessels
< 55 metres	0
55 to < 70 metres	0
70 to < 86 metres	5
86 to 110 metres	27
> 110 metres	13
Total	45


Sources: IVR, CCNR analysis
Note: two additional tanker vessels were excluded from the analysis, as they were not in service by the time this report was published.
 
• Six new push boats and tugs were built in 2023 (compared to four in 2022), of which four are registered in the Netherlands, one is registered in Germany, and one in Belgium.
• Figure 11 illustrates the new loading capacity for dry and liquid cargo vessels entering the market by year. Following a prolonged slump post-financial crisis, recent years have witnessed a resurgence in new capacity, with liquid cargo vessels experiencing a more substantial increase compared to dry cargo vessels. The years 2021 and 2022 saw a slowdown in newbuilding activity due to the uncertainty in business induced by the pandemic and the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine. However, 2023 witnessed a recovery in newbuilding activity, climbing back to pre-pandemic levels.

 

FIGURE 11: NEW CAPACITY COMING ON THE MARKET FOR DRY AND LIQUID CARGO (LOADING CAPACITY IN 1,000 TONNES)


Source: IVR
Note: two additional tanker vessels were excluded from the analysis, as they were not in service by the time this report was published. In 2023, for three newly built vessels, the deadweight was partly estimated due to initially missing values. Estimations were also made in the previous years.

 

AGE STRUCTURE OF THE RHINE CARGO FLEET

• According to the vessel database of the IVR,³⁷ around 80% of the dry cargo fleet was constructed in the 20th century, whereas this share for the tanker fleet amounts to around 40%. According to this same database, the Netherlands holds the largest number of vessels within the Rhine fleet in almost every vessel category, followed by Germany.

 

FIGURE 12: COMMISSIONING YEARS FOR THE RHINE FLEET OVER TIME (NUMBER OF INLAND VESSELS)


Sources: IVR, CCNR analysis
Note that 135 dry cargo vessels and 31 push and tug vessels have an unknown year of construction.
Furthermore, 255 additional tanker vessels, 1,876 dry cargo vessels and 496 push and tug vessels are recorded in the IVR database as being registered in countries other than Rhine countries.

 

CAPACITY MONITORING

DRY CARGO VESSELS

• The year 2023 was difficult for the dry cargo fleet. Weak economic prospects, consequently low industrial production in Germany and global trends such as energy transition, reduced transport demand for traditional commodities and containers. More locally, the nitrogen crisis in the Netherlands caused declining volumes in the construction sector and less demand for animal feed raw materials. The container market, which was for years an unprecedented growth market for the dry cargo fleet, also showed a sharp drop in volumes in 2023 across all transport markets, both domestic and international. This was partly due to global factors as all major seaports also saw declining figures. However, the decreasing volumes transported by inland navigation also indicates a possible reverse modal shift which in turn can be linked to reliability issues due to congestion in seaports and more frequent low water levels, as for instance in autumn 2018 and more recently, in summer 2022. Overall, a sharp drop in cargo volume for dry cargo vessels was observed and, despite continued high demand for vessel capacity in the Danube countries, this manifested itself in declining capacity utilisation.

 

FIGURE 13: EVOLUTION OF CAPACITY UTILISATION FOR DRY CARGO VESSELS IN WESTERN EUROPE


Source: Panteia
 
• From the viewpoint of capacity utilisation, it could be seen as a ‘blessing in disguise’ that the fleet capacity of the dry cargo fleet has fallen sharply in recent years, mainly due to exports of vessels towards the Danube basin. In the Danube region, as a result of the war in Ukraine, there is a high demand for small, medium and large dry cargo vessels to carry grain shipments in particular. Estimates for 2023 again show exports towards the Danube countries of around 50 motor vessels and a similar number of barges. As a result, the fleet capacity of the dry cargo fleet in western Europe has fallen very sharply in recent years. In 2023, a solid decrease representing around 3% of the total fleet capacity available, could be observed.
• The year 2023, unlike 2022, showed encouraging navigation conditions on the Rhine with relatively favourable water levels. Except for a short-lived period of about 2 weeks in the month of October, there were no significant restrictions on navigation depth. This contrasts sharply with the year 2022, during which water levels were very low over a relatively long period during the summer months. This forced goods destined for ports on the Middle and Upper Rhine to be switched via alternative modes of transport.
• It is important to realise that dry cargo shipping must once again start to position itself as an attractive alternative to road freight transport. Indeed, there is a risk of substantial overcapacity of large vessels in particular, in the short and medium term. Traditional cargo segments such as coal and ores will not show growth in the coming years. The same applies to agribulk, while in the construction materials market, national restrictions (especially in the Netherlands) are reducing volumes. Fleet capacity will continue to decline to a limited extent in the coming years.

 

LIQUID CARGO VESSELS

• In the liquid cargo segment, unlike in the dry cargo market, volumes remained relatively stable with only limited declines. Of particular note was the decline in chemical product volumes, while the petroleum product market remained stable. This, combined with more favourable navigation conditions than the previous year 2022, and fleet capacity expansion through new construction of several tankers, led to lower capacity utilisation rates in the tanker market. Nevertheless, the situation is still acceptable and comparable to recent years without prolonged low water periods.

 

FIGURE 14: EVOLUTION OF CAPACITY UTILISATION FOR LIQUID CARGO VESSELS IN WESTERN EUROPE


Source: Panteia
 
• The tanker shipping market characterises itself as hypersensitive to situations with extreme low water levels. Seen in this light, 2023 was a favourable year with only a brief period of not too extreme low water in the month of October. While this led to low loading rates of vessels in relation to the Middle and Upper Rhine, it did not cause extreme tightness on the market as water levels towards the Lower Rhine remained at an acceptable level. As a result, capacity utilisation of the tanker shipping market changed significantly compared to 2022, in which extreme low water levels occurred in the month of August. In that year, a substantial part of the fleet was unable to pass over the shallow water at Kaub, forcing refineries and chemical plants along the Middle and Upper Rhine to implement production restrictions. There were no such restrictions in 2023.
• The outlook is also favourable in smaller niche markets of the tanker sector. The edible oil tanker market shows stable volumes and is expected to continue to grow in the coming years. For powder tankers, products such as cement and fly ash (residue from coal-fired power plants) will be replaced by alternative materials in the concrete industry. As the construction sector – despite restrictions in the Netherlands and also in Flanders due to nitrogen – does have a favourable outlook in the longer term, these submarkets will also continue to be well used. For the more traditional market segments, such as petroleum products, bio-alternatives will generate more rather than less demand in the shorter term. In the longer term, some of the domestic petrol distribution traffic will be phased out. The chemicals sector is currently experiencing a downturn, partly due to investment decisions by major industrial players in north-western Europe. But as long as the population continues to grow, practically speaking, demand for chemical products will also continue to grow.
• There is, however, a threat of overcapacity in tanker shipping due to the large amount of new construction in the longer term. However, given high sensitivity to low water levels and the importance of security of supply, some degree of overcapacity is not necessarily a problem if it is contractually well regulated between carriers and shippers. The sectors on both sides of the chain currently seem to be aware of this.³⁸

 

INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE INLAND NAVIGATION FLEET CONTRIBUTING TO REDUCING EMISSIONS

• In accordance with the mandate given by the Mannheim Ministerial Declaration of 17 October 2018, the CCNR adopted in December 2021 a roadmap for reducing emissions from inland navigation,³⁹ which called for the creation of a database on innovative vessels.
• To develop such a database, available data on innovative inland navigation vessels was compiled within the framework of the Inspection Regulation Committee of the CCNR, with the following scope:
  – innovative vessel understood as designed to emit less air pollutants or greenhouse gases than a conventional diesel vessel;
  – freight and passenger vessels with a Rhine Vessel Inspection Certificate or a Union certificate;⁴⁰
  – vessels planned, under construction, in service or cancelled projects.
• Even if biofuels contribute to reducing – under certain conditions – greenhouse gas emissions, vessels running on biofuels were not taken into account in the analysis, as switching to biofuels does not call for a specific design or technical adaptation at the level of the vessel.
• For the purpose of this analysis, 64 vessels were considered: 46 freight vessels, 17 day-trip passenger vessels and 1 cabin vessel.⁴¹ The vast majority of the innovative vessels sail with a Rhine Vessel Inspection Certificate. They are mainly new built vessels (around 85%), but also retrofitted vessels (around 15%).
• The number of innovative vessels in service represent less than 0.2% of the entire inland navigation fleet in Europe, 34 of which built, retrofitted or planned from 2021 onwards. Six came into service in 2023, and eight are still considered as projects (newbuilt mainly). Several projects were foreseen to be built in 2022 and 2023 but suffered some delays. Several projects have also been cancelled before their finalisation.⁴² The reasons behind the cancellation of a project could be of a different nature, such as economic (not enough demand, lack of subsidies), organisational (withdrawal of a partner) or even technical (safety or operational issues). Most of the projects cancelled were LNG propelled vessels. Indeed, fossil LNG is no longer considered as a long-term option, notably for reducing carbon emissions in inland navigation. Two vessels operating with fuel cell systems were also cancelled or removed from service.
• This trend does not prejudge the evolution of the number of innovative vessels outside the scope of this database.
• These innovative vessels run or are expected to run on – as the primary energy carrier⁴³ – batteries, compressed natural gas (CNG), liquefied natural gas (LNG), diesel, methanol, compressed hydrogen (GH2) mainly in combination with batteries, or sodium borohydride with batteries (NaBH4).

 

FIGURE 15:NUMBER OF VESSELS USING ALTERNATIVE ENERGIES AS ONE OF THE MAIN ENERGY CARRIERS *


Source: CCNR database
* The category “GH2” includes 2 vessels operating with a combustion engine and 6 with fuel cell systems. The category “Methanol” includes 3 vessels operating with a combustion engine and 1 with a fuel cell system. The category “Diesel/batteries” consists solely of vessels which are capable of relying on batteries alone for propulsion. In this category, 7 of them are also equipped with a fuel cell system.
 
• Figure 15 above reflects the alternative energies used as one of the main energy carriers (for vessel propulsion). It often comes with other energy carriers onboard, notably diesel engines for redundancy purposes or as an emergency power source. In other words, it is anticipated that different (modular) options for zero-emissions powertrains, using mixes of energy sources/fuels, will play a role in achieving the ambitious emission reduction objectives set at international level. This is confirmed by the profile of the innovative vessels (in service, under construction or project) which almost all use multiple energy carriers.
• Moreover, there is no “one-size-fits-all” solution for achieving the energy transition. The choice of an appropriate emissions reduction technology depends on several factors, that include the sailing profile of the vessels, their type, the market segment in which they operate, but also the related technical constraints.
• This is reflected in the following figure, showing how innovative applications find their way into the inland navigation sector.

 

FIGURE 16: DISTRIBUTION OF INNOVATIONS PER VESSEL TYPE AND PRIMARY ENERGY CARRIER⁴⁴


 
• Most of these innovative vessels are equipped with a combustion engine as their main energy converter (38), of which 31 are also equipped with an electric motor. In addition, seven vessels running mainly on batteries are also equipped with a combustion engine for redundancy purposes or as emergency power source. This is a positive evolution which should facilitate a modular system approach. Indeed, the integration of batteries or fuel cell systems in existing vessels require a vessel to be equipped with an electric motor in the first place. Eighteen vessels operate with battery electric propulsion systems and nine with fuel cell systems. It should be highlighted that one vessel is designed to use swappable batteries containers. The number of vessels with similar design might grow in the coming years.

• In 2023, persisting geopolitical tensions, low economic growth, slowdown in world trade and high inflation significantly impacted maritime throughput in main European seaports.
• As a consequence, main European seaports such as Rotterdam, Antwerp-Bruges, North Sea Port and Hamburg registered a decrease in the volumes of inland waterway cargo handled. Yet, driven by a record increase in grain traffic, mainly attributed to Ukrainian grain transiting through Romania, IWT traffic at the port of Constanţa in 2023 was the highest recorded in its history.
• Most of the European inland ports were negatively impacted by multiple downward factors, except for the Danube ports, notably Ismail and Reni, which experienced a strong increase in inland waterway cargo handling.

MAIN EUROPEAN SEAPORTS

Sources: Ports’ statistics, Destatis, CBS, Eurostat [iww_go_aport] and Danube Commission
* For Szczecin, data are for 2022.
 

Source: Romanian national Institute of Statistics
 

ROTTERDAM

• In 2023, 89,175 inland vessels called at the Port of Rotterdam (82,763 in 2022).
• The volumes of inland waterway cargo handling at the Port of Rotterdam decreased by -6.9% to 140.9 million tonnes in 2023 (compared to 151.3 million tonnes in 2022). All cargo segments decreased. Overall, geopolitical tensions, low economic growth and high inflation are the main explanatory factors behind these negative results. This affected particularly containerised cargo, which sustained a -11.2% decrease for the second year in a row. The handling of dry cargo also sustained a strong decrease (-9.6%), driven mainly by a fall in coal throughput, because of low demand for energy coal for power production. Indeed, in 2022, demand for coal rose sharply due to concerns about energy security and large increases in gas prices, a demand which returned to normal levels in 2023. Lower demand for raw materials from the European industry also contributed to these negative results in the area of dry bulk. Liquid cargo fell, with a smaller decline (-2.5%), mainly attributable to the low demand and stock reductions observed in the chemical industry and to a lesser extent, a decrease in mineral oil products.

 

FIGURE 1: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN THE SEAPORT OF ROTTERDAM (IN MILLION TONNES) *


Source: CBS
* Note that data from the Port of Rotterdam based on CBS data were used in previous years, which can explain a difference in the numbers reported in the last years. However, the overall trends remain identical.
 

FIGURE 2: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN THE SEAPORT OF ROTTERDAM PER CARGO SEGMENT (IN MILLION TONNES) *


Source: CBS
* General cargo is not taken into account in these calculations. In 2023, the volume transported for general cargo amounted to 3.1 million tonnes.

 

ANTWERP-BRUGES

• The ports of Antwerp and Zeebrugge have been operating under the name ‘Port of Antwerp-Bruges’ since April 2022. Most of IWW cargo handling at the port takes place on the Antwerp site. In 2023, the number of vessels calling at the port decreased to 55,604 (compared to 57,987 in 2022).
• Liquid bulk is the most important cargo type (59.9%), followed by containers (18.9%) and dry bulk (14.4%). The IWW cargo handling decreased in 2023 (-3.4% compared to -7.5% in 2022) reaching a volume of 97.8 million tonnes (compared to 101.2 in 2022), reflecting geopolitical tensions and slowing economic growth which are driving down industrial production and trade flows. This result was driven by a sharp decrease in the transport of containers (-19.3%) for the second year in a row (-10.9% in 2022 already), because of the disruptions in global containerised liner shipping, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. On the other hand, the transport of liquid bulk (+3.0%) increased, driven by petroleum products (+15.9%), thereby recovering from the losses observed in 2022 (-12.7%). It offsets the decrease observed for all other liquid products, chemicals in particular (-8.5%), an industry which experienced an economic slowdown in 2023. Dry bulk also slightly increased (+0.9%) driven by higher transport volumes of crude minerals and building materials while all the other dry product segments slightly decreased.
• The IWW modal split within total maritime throughput (excluding industrial traffic²⁸) in 2023 was 48.7% at the port of Antwerp (51.4% in 2022). The IWW modal split share within container transport to and from the hinterland was 34.0% (minus one percentage point).

 

FIGURE 3: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN THE SEAPORT OF ANTWERP-BRUGES (IN MILLION TONNES) *



Source: Port of Antwerp-Bruges
* From 2021 onwards, figures for inland waterway cargo handling at the Port of Antwerp and Zeebrugge appear under the name “Port of Antwerp-Bruges”.

 

FIGURE 4: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN THE SEAPORT OF ANTWERP-BRUGES PER CARGO SEGMENT (IN MILLION TONNES) *


Source: Port of Antwerp-Bruges
* Ro/ro, general and not assigned goods are not taken into account in these calculations (in 2023, the volume transported for these three cargo types amounted to 6.6 million tonnes mostly attributed to general goods).
* From 2021 onwards, figures for inland waterway cargo handling at the Port of Antwerp and Zeebrugge appear under the name “Port of Antwerp-Bruges”.

NORTH SEA PORT

• In 2023, 37,752 inland vessels called in at North Sea Port (Ghent, Terneuzen, Borsele, Flushing), compared to 40,645 in 2022.
• Because of the difficult geopolitical and economic conditions such as the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine, the energy crisis, the rise in commodity prices and the reduced global demand, inland waterway transhipment sustained a -4.8% drop in 2023 compared to 2022, reaching 61.5 million tonnes (this decrease reached -10.6% for maritime throughput). Both liquid bulk (-6.6% compared to 2022) and dry bulk (-7.9%) decreased while container transport strongly increased (+36.8%). Both imports (-5.6%) and exports (-4.3%) decreased.
• As for the modal split within hinterland transport, inland navigation ranks first with a share of 60.6% (including 2 additional percentage points taken from road) followed by road (28.1%), rail (9.6%) and transhipment or feeder traffic (1.6%).

 

FIGURE 5: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN THE NORTH SEA PORT (IN MILLION TONNES) *


Source: North Sea Port
 

FIGURE 6: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN THE NORTH SEA PORT PER CARGO SEGMENT (IN MILLION TONNES) *


Source: North Sea Port
* Ro/ro and conventional cargo are not taken into account in these calculations (in 2023, the volume transported for these two cargo types amounted to 0.1 million tonnes and 4.2 million tonnes respectively).

CONSTANŢA

• In Constanţa, 14,614 inland vessels called at the port in 2023 (10,890 in 2022). As for maritime traffic, IWT traffic in 2023 recorded at the Port of Constanţa was the highest recorded in history. It reached 21.8 million tonnes, an increase of -40% compared to 2022. This growth is mainly attributed to higher volumes of grain transport. Indeed, Ukraine is one of the world’s largest grain exporters, and Constanţa has become the largest alternative export route since the start of the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine. The cargo handled at the port of Constanţa in relation to Ukraine (covering both maritime and IWT) has registered 25 million tonnes, of which 14 million can be attributed to Ukrainian grain transiting through the port of Constanţa.
• Regarding IWT specifically, mainly dry cargo is handled at the Port of Constanţa, with a share of almost 85% of the total IWT cargo volume handled. Dry cargo volumes registered a +40% increase compared to 2022. While the largest increase in dry bulk was propelled by grain, an increase was also recorded for iron ore as well as steel and iron scrap. For the second year in a row, liquid cargo volumes almost doubled, which can be attributed mainly to an increase in the volumes of petroleum products handled at the port. Container transport also reached a record year for the second year in a row and more than doubled compared to 2022. It however remains at low levels compared to liquid and dry bulk. General cargo remained stable. IWT traffic mainly consists of transit traffic and cabotage.

 

FIGURE 7: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN THE SEAPORT OF CONSTANŢA (IN MILLION TONNES)


Source: port of Constanţa
 

HAMBURG

• IWT cargo handling dropped by -6.2% in 2023 (7.00 million tonnes) compared to 2022 (7.47 million tonnes): exports suffered a decrease (-15.6%) while imports increased slightly (+1.9%). This reduction is attributed to the unfavourable economic conditions closely linked to the worldwide geopolitical situation.
• Containers and dry cargo volumes decreased by -15.7% and -7.8% respectively between 2022 and 2023. For the containers category, which has been decreasing since 2021, this reduction has been mainly driven by the general difficult macroeconomic context which also affected many other European ports in 2023. Among dry cargo, the coal segment experienced a strong drop (-32.1%) compared with 2022 when there was a shift towards coal in the energy sector as a result of the war in Ukraine. This shift towards coal was no longer observed in 2023 and Germany has continued its energy transition, leading to sustainable electricity production and shifting away from coal-fired power stations.
• As to liquid cargo, volumes remained stable between 2022 and 2023.
• In 2023, the entire hinterland transport amounted to 85.3 million tonnes (compared to 88 million tonnes in 2022). With a share of 53.5% (-0.4 percentage point), railway transport is ahead of truck transport with 38.1% (+0.5 percentage point) and inland waterway transport with 8.4% (-0.1 percentage point).

 

FIGURE 8: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN THE SEAPORT OF HAMBURG (IN MILLION TONNES)


Source: Statistical Office of Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein
 

FIGURE 9: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN THE SEAPORT OF HAMBURG PER CARGO SEGMENT (IN MILLION TONNES) *


Source: Statistical Office of Hamburg and Schleswig-Holstein
* General cargo is not taken into account in these calculations (in 2023, the volume transported for this cargo type amounted to almost 0.2 million tonnes).

MAIN EUROPEAN INLAND AND SEAPORTS²⁹

RHINE PORTS

TABLE 1: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN MAJOR RHINE PORTS (IN MILLION TONNES) AND RATE OF CHANGE 2023/2022 *

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2023/2022
Duisburg	42.4	44.9	41.9	41.5	-0.9%
Cologne	9.1	9.8	8.2	7.7	-6.0%
Karlsruhe	6.2	6.4	6.8	6.4	-5.5%
Mannheim	6.9	7.3	7.6	6.3	-16.8%
Strasbourg	6.8	6.9	6.4	6.2	-3.0%
Neuss	6.5	6.6	5.6	5.5	-1.2%
Ludwigshafen	6.8	6.9	5.6	5.0	-11.0%
Basel	5.1	5.4	4.6	4.9	+8.0%
Mainz	3.8	3.1	3.5	3.3	-5.6%
Mulhouse	4.2	4.1	3.6	3.2	-12.8%
Kehl	4.4	4.4	3.2	2.7	-14.4%
Krefeld	3.0	3.4	3.1	2.7	-12.3%
Andernach	2.7	2.7	2.3	2.2	-5.3%
Wesseling	2.5	2.1	1.9	1.8	-6.4%
Wesel	2.0	2.1	2.1	1.8	-13.8%
Total	112.4	116.3	106.5	101.4	-4.8%


Sources: Destatis, Port de Strasbourg, Swiss Rhine ports, Port de Mulhouse
The “total” relates only to the ports mentioned in the table, not all Rhine ports.
* Data on German ports are based on the geographical approach, which means that all cargo turnover within a city is taken into account, and not only the cargo handled in a specific port.


 

TOTAL YEARLY WATERSIDE TRAFFIC (IN MILLION TONNES)


 

PORTS IN GERMANY OUTSIDE THE RHINE *

TABLE 2: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN MAJOR NON-RHINE PORTS IN GERMANY (IN MILLION TONNES) AND RATE OF CHANGE 2023/2022 *

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2023/2022
Hamburg	7.9	7.6	8.3	7.6	-8.3%
Frankfurt am Main	5.7	5.4	4.8	5.0	+4.6%
Gelsenkirchen	4.6	4.9	4.9	4.3	-12.6%
Brunsbüttel	2.7	2.8	2.8	3.2	+14.0%
Marl	3.2	3.1	2.9	2.9	+2.0%
Bottrop	3.1	2.8	2.8	2.8	+2.3%
Bremen	2.7	3.3	3.2	2.7	-16.7%
Saarlouis	1.9	2.6	2.8	2.7	-2.3%
Magdeburg	2.6	2.7	2.4	2.7	+14.0%
Salzgitter	2.2	2.7	2.7	2.5	-7.1%
Lünen	1.8	2.3	2.6	2.3	-9.9%
Hamm	2.7	2.1	2.1	2.0	-2.9%
Lingen (Ems)	1.9	2.1	2.0	1.8	-11.7%
Heilbronn	1.8	2.2	1.9	1.6	-14.0%
Berlin	1.8	1.8	1.7	1.3	-23.1%
Total	46.6	48.4	47.7	45.5	-4.7%


Source: Destatis
* Data on German ports are based on the geographical approach, which means that all cargo turnover within a city is taken into account, and not only the cargo handled in a specific port. For Hamburg, the figures in accordance with this approach are therefore higher than the figures of the Port of Hamburg, due to other transhipment places in the city.

 

TOTAL YEARLY WATERSIDE TRAFFIC (IN MILLION TONNES)


 

FRENCH AND BELGIAN³⁰ PORTS

TABLE 3: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN MAJOR FRENCH AND BELGIAN PORTS (IN MILLION TONNES) AND RATE OF CHANGE 2023/2022

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2023/2022
Antwerp	101.0	109.4 31	101.2	97.8	-3.4%
Paris	22.8	22.5	20.6	19.6	-5.0%
Liège	13.9	14.9	14.5	11.8	-19.2%
La Louvière	6.2	6.4	6.8	6.4	-5.9%
Strasbourg	6.8	6.9	6.4	6.2	-3.0%
Rouen	5.9	5.4	4.9	5.0	+2.9%
Brussels	4.9	5.4	5.1	4.8	-5.3%
Namur	3.8	4.3	4.3	4.8	+12.6%
Mulhouse	4.2	4.1	3.6	3.2	-12.8%
Le Havre	2.7	3.0	3.2	2.9	-10.7%
Dunkirk	2.9	2.6	2.1	2.1	+1.7%
Lille	2.0	2.3	2.4	1.9	-16.4%
Marseille	1.9	2.0	2.1	1.8	-14.4%
Metz	2.0	1.7	1.8	1.4	-18.5%
Lyon	1.0	1.2	1.2	1.1	-6.7%
Ports de l’Escaut32	1.1	1.2	1.2	1.1	-6.9%
Villefranche-sur-Saône	0.7	0.7	0.7	0.7	-2.7%
Total	183.8	194.0	182.0	172.6	-5.1%


Sources: Voies Navigables de France, Ports de Paris, Port de Liège, Port Autonome du Centre et de l’Ouest, Port de Strasbourg, Port de Mulhouse, Port de Bruxelles, Port de Namur, Nouveau Port de Metz, Port de Lille, Port de Dunkerque, Port of Antwerp-Bruges, Association française des ports intérieurs (AFPI)
The “total” relates only to the ports mentioned in the table, and not to all French and Belgian ports.


 

TOTAL YEARLY WATERSIDE TRAFFIC (IN MILLION TONNES)



 

DANUBE PORTS

TABLE 4: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN MAJOR DANUBE PORTS (IN MILLION TONNES) AND RATE OF CHANGE 2023/2022

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2023/2022
Constanţa	14.5	15.8	15.4	21.7	+41.0%
Ismail	3.2	4.1	8.9	20.3	+127.9%
Reni	0.8	1.4	6.8	10.1	+47.5%
Linz	3.4	3.5	2.9	2.9	-0.4%
Smederovo	2.6	3.2	3.0	2.8	-7.5%
Giurgulesti	1.2	1.8	2.1	2.7	+24.4%
Galaţi	2.8	3.3	3.0	1.9	-36.0%
Pancevo	2.0	0.9	1.6	1.6	+3.3%
Bratislava	1.5	1.8	1.9	1.5	-22.0%
Drobeta Turnu Severin	1.0	1.2	1.0	1.4	+29.5%
Regensburg	1.5	1.3	1.1	1.0	-5.7%
Prahovo	1.2	1.0	0.9	1.0	+13.0%
Budapest-Csepel	1.2	1.2	1.0	0.9	-9.8%
Novi Sad	1.6	1.4	0.9	0.9	-6.2%
Călăraşi-Chiciu	0.9	0.9	0.6	0.9	+66.4%
Măcin	1.2	1.2	0.9	0.7	-22.4%
Giurgiu	0.8	1.0	0.7	0.7	+9.1%
Vienna	0.8	0.9	0.6	0.6	+8.6%
Brăila	0.3	0.5	0.8	0.4	-55.9%
Enns	0.6	0.7	0.5	0.4	-24.8%
Baja	0.8	0.6	0.3	0.3	+14.6%
Tulcea	1.2	1.3	0.5	0.2	-65.1%
Total	45.1	49.0	55.4	75.0	+34.8%


Sources: Danube Commission market observation, Romanian National Institute of Statistics
The “total” relates only to the ports mentioned in the table and not all Danube ports. The data used in Figure 6 come from the Port of Constanţa while the data used in this table come from the Romanian National Institute of Statistics. This can explain the slight difference in the figures reported.

 

TOTAL YEARLY WATERSIDE TRAFFIC (IN MILLION TONNES)



 

SAVA PORTS

TABLE 5: INLAND WATERWAY CARGO HANDLING IN MAJOR SAVA PORTS (IN 1,000 TONNES) AND RATE OF CHANGE 2023/2022 *

	2020	2021	2022	2023	2023/2022
		Serbia
Other transhipment places	2,1	2,283	3,2	4,381	+37.0%
Sremska Mitrovica	486	693	1,194	722	-40.0%
Šabac	170	224	142	131	-8.0%
		Croatia
Slavonski Brod	138	192	161	180	+12.0%
Sisak	55	29	38	29	-2.0%
		Bosnia and Herzegovina
Brčko	73	31	41	61	+49.0%
Total	3,022	3,452	4,775	5,504	+15.0%


Source: International Sava River Basin Commission
* In 2015, the Port of Šamac in Bosnia and Herzegovina reported bankruptcy, therefore no transhipment of cargo has been recorded since then. The production process of Brod oil refinery has been at a standstill since 2020. Since 2018, data for smaller transhipment places in Serbia began to be collected as part of the category “other ports”.

 

TOTAL YEARLY WATERSIDE TRAFFIC (IN 1,000 TONNES)

• On the Rhine, the year 2023 was characterised by good navigating conditions with very few and short low water periods. The Danube had more critical navigating conditions, with a rather high number of low water days (= days when water levels were below the critical threshold ‘Low navigable water level’). The freight rates for dry cargo transport on the Rhine mostly recorded a decrease in 2023 compared to 2022. The strongest drop was observed for dry bulk spot market rates. This decrease in dry cargo freight rates can be explained by the decrease in dry bulk transport in 2023 compared to 2022 and the driving effect of extra coal demand observed in 2022 coming to an end in 2023. For containers, freight rates have on a yearly average been increasing since 2021.
• For liquid cargo, freight rates were on a rather high level in 2023. Although they were partly lower than in 2022, the freight rates level for liquid cargo was still higher than during the time before the low water period of 2022.

WATER LEVELS, AVAILABLE DRAUGHTS AND NAVIGATION CONDITIONS

• The overall performance of inland waterway transport is linked to – among other factors – water levels, which determine the amount of cargo that a vessel can load and transport under safe navigation conditions. The load factor (ratio of cargo loaded to loading capacity of the vessel) influences the unit costs of inland waterway transport. A high load factor represents a high volume of cargo transported per trip, and therefore lower costs per TKM. In addition, high water depths and the resulting high load factors enable inland waterway transport to reach a high degree of energy efficiency.
• Low water periods therefore reduce not only the load factor and overall cargo transport on inland waterways but lead also to higher costs. Although the reduction of the load factor could be compensated by putting more vessels into operation, there are obvious limitations to this.²¹ An example is the low water period experienced in both autumn 2018 and summer 2022 on the Rhine. The amount of cargo that a vessel can load at a certain water level, while keeping safe navigation conditions, is determined by the available draught, as can be seen in the next figure.

 

FIGURE 1: ACTUAL WATER LEVEL, ACTUAL DRAUGHT, EQUIVALENT WATER LEVEL, MINIMUM NAVIGATION CHANNEL DEPTH AND POSSIBLE OR AVAILABLE DRAUGHT AT KAUB/MIDDLE RHINE *


Source: CCNR based on the German Federal Institute for Hydrology (BfG) (2015)
* The distances in this drawing are not at scale. In this illustration, the date chosen to determine the available or possible draught is 3 September 2020, when the actual water level was 239 cm on average. For a sailing vessel, the actual draught also contains the squat effect. The latter results from hydrodynamic effects and leads to a higher draught compared to a vessel at rest. The squat effect is stronger the less water present under the keel, and the faster the vessel is sailing.

 

• One way of observing low water periods is to calculate the statistical frequencies of available draught²² values for different years. The frequency distribution shows that the year 2023 was characterised by a smaller frequency of low water days compared to the year 2022. For example, in 2023, there were 24 days at the gauge station Kaub when the available draught was in the interval between 1.31 m and 1.80 m. In 2022, this category counted 52 days.

 

FIGURE 2: NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR FOR AVAILABLE DRAUGHT INTERVALS AT KAUB


Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), provided by the German Federal Office for Hydrology (BfG)
 
• Another method for assessing the quality of navigating conditions over an entire year is based on the concept of counting the number of days when water levels are below a certain reference low water level, known as Equivalent Water Level (EWL) for the free-flowing sections of the Rhine and Low Navigable Water Level (LNWL) for the Danube. If water levels drop below this reference low water level, this indicates a situation of critical navigation.

NUMBER OF CRITICAL LOW WATER DAYS FOR RHINE AND DANUBE GAUGE STATIONS

RHINE GAUGE STATIONS

• The EWL is determined by the Central Commission for the Navigation of the Rhine (CCNR) for several gauge stations along the Rhine. The values are adapted every ten years, to take account of natural and anthropogenic changes.
• The equivalent water level 2012 came into force in 2014 and remained valid until the end of 2022. A new equivalent water level was introduced on 1 January 2023 (known as EWL 2022) and is applicable until the end of 2031.
• Although the equivalent water level is measured in centimetres, the starting point of its determination is a flow concept. Indeed, equivalent flow values (indicated in the unit m³/s) measured against the benchmark levels are recalculated every ten years as flows within a 100-year time series. The equivalent flow values are then used to recalculate the corresponding equivalent water level (EWL) values against the benchmark levels every ten years. The EWL consequently contains the following definition: “The equivalent water level (EWL) is the water level occurring along the Rhine at an equivalent water flow falling below the long-term average for 20 days [per year]”.

 

TABLE 1: HYDRAULIC PARAMETERS FOR IMPORTANT RHINE GAUGE STATIONS *

Gauge station	Guaranteed navigation channel depth	Equivalent water level 2022
Tiel (Waal, NL)	280 cm	255 cm
Nijmegen (Waal, NL)	280 cm	516 cm
IJsselkop (Nederrijn, NL)	280 cm	683 cm
Lobith (Lower Rhine, NL)	280 cm	733 cm
Emmerich (Lower Rhine, DE)	280 cm	74 cm
Duisburg-Ruhrort (Lower Rhine, DE)	280 cm	227 cm
Cologne (Lower Rhine, DE)	250 cm	139 cm
Kaub (Middle Rhine, DE)	190 cm	77 cm
Oestrich (Middle Rhine, DE)	190 cm	92 cm
Maxau (Upper Rhine, DE)	210 cm	372 cm
Basel (Upper Rhine, CH)	300 cm	501 cm


Sources: German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), Rijkswaterstaat
* Waal and Nederrijn are two branches of the Rhine delta in the Netherlands.

 
• For these 11 Rhine gauges, daily water level data were collected and analysed.

 

 

• The figures show the number of days below the equivalent water level for the above-mentioned gauge stations.

 
Number of days below Equivalent Water Level (EWL)
 

Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), provided by the German Federal Office for Hydrology (BfG), and from Rijkswaterstaat
 

• Between 2015 and 2023, the two years with the highest number of low water days were 2018 and 2022. Although the summer of 2022 experienced days of extreme heat and a period of rapidly decreasing water levels, the 2022 low water period (July to August 2022) did not last as long as it did in 2018 (August to November 2018). This explains the smaller number of days below the equivalent water level in 2022, compared to the year 2018.

 
Low water levels and low flows from a historical perspective
 

• For Kaub, on the Middle Rhine, data on the number of days with a discharge of less than 783 m³ per second (which is the equivalent flow value, corresponding to the equivalent water level of 78 cm at Kaub) are modelled statistically dating back to the year 1820. The aim of this procedure is to compare today’s flows with the past. The resulting values show that years of severe low water periods also occurred in the past. However, their impact on transport volumes was not as strong as in 2018 and 2022, due to smaller vessels with a lower draught, different logistics (less ‘Just-in-time’) and less competition from other transport modes.

 

FIGURE 3: NUMBER OF DAYS PER YEAR WITH A DISCHARGE Q < 783 M³/S * AT KAUB, MIDDLE RHINE INCLUDING 30-YEAR-MOVING AVERAGE


Source: German Federal Office for Hydrology (BfG)
* Corresponds to a water level of 78 cm (equivalent water level).

 

DANUBE GAUGE STATIONS

• The reference low water level of the Danube is known as ‘Low Navigable Water Level (LNWL)’. It is defined as the water level exceeded on 94.0% of days in a year (i.e. on 343 days) during ice-free periods with a reference to a 30-year observation period (1981 – 2010).²³
• Based on this definition, equivalent calculations can be carried out for the Danube.

 

 

• For 11 important gauge stations on the Danube, daily water level data were collected and analysed. The figures below show the number of days per year on which the actual water levels fell below the Low Navigable Water level.

 
Number of days below the Low Navigable Water Level (LNWL)
 

Sources: CCNR calculation based on data from the German Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration (WSV), provided by the German Federal Office for Hydrology (BfG), data from the Federal State of Lower Austria and the Danube Commission
For Calafat and Calarasi, data for 2023 were not available.
 

FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION

CBS FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR THE RHINE REGION

• Statistics Netherlands (CBS) collects freight rate data from a panel of Dutch IWT companies. The price levels are based on fixed routes for which questionnaires are sent out twice a quarter. They comprise the sailing costs including fuel and low water surcharges and exclude cargo handling costs. In 2023, taking into account all market segments together, freight rates decreased on average by -11.8% compared to 2022 (while they had increased by +42.5% between 2021 and 2022).
• More specifically, dry bulk and container freight rates had been following an increasing path since the third quarter of 2020, as the underlying transport demand recovered from the pandemic. In 2023, while container freight rates continued overall to follow this upwards trend, yet with less intensity between 2022 and 2023 as a result of a decreasing demand, dry cargo freight rates strongly decreased in 2023 on average (-21.4% in regard to the spot market and -10.6% in regard to contract prices). This decrease in dry cargo freight rates can be explained by the decrease in dry bulk transport in 2023 compared to 2022. More specifically, the temporary driving effect of extra coal demand in inland shipping which was observed in 2022 came to an end in 2023.
• Liquid cargo freight rates followed a decreasing trend between 2019 and 2021, stemming from a weaker development of transport demand compared to dry cargo²⁴ and a stronger expansion of its supply side, in terms of a higher newbuilding rate and thus more additional cargo carrying capacity. However, liquid cargo freight rates have been increasing overall since Q4 2021 driven by the effects of low waters and an overall increase in demand, despite a difficult year for the chemical sector. On average, liquid cargo freight rates increased in 2023 compared to 2022 (+3.9%).²⁵
• As for containers, freight rates have been increasing on a yearly average since 2021 (+2.2% between 2023 and 2022; +23.6% between 2022 and 2021).

 

FIGURE 4: CBS FREIGHT RATE INDICES PER QUARTER (2015 = 100) *


Source: CBS, Table 84050NED
* The prices of established routes are observed twice a quarter and include fuel and low water surcharges but exclude loading and unloading. The time of observation is in the middle and at the end of the quarter. All prices are nominal prices.

 

LIQUID CARGO FREIGHT RATES IN THE RHINE REGION

• Figure 5 illustrates the liquid cargo spot market freight rate index for gasoil for ARA-Rhine transport (yearly averages). Since 2010 an overall positive trend is seen. To some extent, this positive trend was driven by low water periods, which occurred in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022.
• The observed trends are almost identical for the three different geographical entities shown – two stretches of the Rhine (Lower Rhine, Upper Rhine) and the Main affluent.

 

FIGURE 5: INSIGHTS GLOBAL FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR LIQUID CARGO TRANSPORT IN THE ARA-RHINE AREA (2015 = 100)


Source: CCNR calculation based on Insights Global
 
 

CITBO LIQUID CARGO FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR THE FARAG REGION

Geography of the CITBO transport activity and product segment structure
 
• For the liquid cargo transport within the extended ARA region, between Amsterdam, Antwerp, Flushing, Ghent, Rotterdam and Terneuzen, a dataset on spot market freight rates provided by the tanker barge cooperation CITBO²⁶ was analysed. The shares of the different product groups within cargo transported were as follows:
  – Gasoil and components: share of 41% in 2023 (38% in 2022)
  – Gasoline and components: share of 37% in 2023 (29% in 2022)
  – Biodiesel: share of 18% in 2023 (26% in 2022)
  – Chemicals: share of 2% in 2023 (6% in 2022)
  – Heavy products: share of 0.2% in 2023 (1% in 2022)
• Of all liquid cargo transport in 2023, the five ports with the highest shares are represented as follows:
  – in loaded cargo, volumes accounted for 80% and,
  – in unloaded cargo, volumes accounted for 67%.

 


Port of loading	Cargo volume - share in %	Port of unloading	Cargo volume - share in %
Antwerp	34% (in 2022: 35%)	Rotterdam	21% (in 2022: 28%)
Rotterdam	28% (in 2022: 27%)	Amsterdam	18% (in 2022: 12%)
Amsterdam	8% (in 2022: 8%)	Antwerp	14% (in 2022: 17%)
Flushing	5% (in 2022: 6%)	Ghent	7% (in 2022: 6%)
Biowanze	5% (in 2022: 4%)	Wandre	7% (in 2022: 4%)
All other ports	20% (in 2022: 19%)	All other ports	33% (in 2021: 34%)


 
• The locations of other ports of loading and unloading are mainly found in Belgium and in the Netherlands, but locations in France, Germany and Switzerland also appear.

 
Results of the calculation of freight rate indices (spot market data)
 

• A freight rate index was calculated for the four main different product segments.²⁷ From these indices, it can be observed that low waters (in 2018 and 2022) had a strong influence on freight rates for all product segments. In the year 2023, spot market freight rates kept a high level, despite the fact that water levels were not as low as in 2022.

 

FIGURES 6, 7, 8 AND 9: CITBO FREIGHT RATE INDEX FOR LIQUID CARGO SEGMENTS (INDEX Q3 2017 = 100)








Source: CCNR analysis based on spot market data provided by CITBO
 
Influencing factors for CITBO freight rates
 
• Longer journey time leads to higher costs, thereby contributing to higher freight rates. The longest journey time observed is for the transport of gasoline. In 2023, the average duration of trips was 30 hours for gasoline and components, compared to 19 hours for gasoil and components, 17 hours for chemicals and 22 hours for biodiesel. The strong influence the journey time for trips has on the level of freight rates is confirmed in Figure 10.

 

FIGURE 10: RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN JOURNEY TIME OF A TRIP AND FREIGHT RATE INDEX VALUE (INDEX Q3 2017 = 100) *




Source: CCNR analysis based on spot market data provided by CITBO
* The dots in the graphs represent the combination of average journey time and average freight rate index for certain months between July 2017 and December 2023.

 
• Additional influencing factors for freight rates exist. Overall, it can be observed that chemicals have by far the highest spot market freight rates in absolute terms (€/tonne), followed by gasoline and its components. The high freight rate levels for chemical transports cannot be explained by journey times, as these are rather low for chemicals (see above). The high freight rates can be attributed primarily to the relatively expensive vessels for chemical transport, often with stainless steel tanks, as well as the high safety standards and high cleaning costs. The significant demand on the shippers’ side to transport their chemicals by IWW therefore contributes to higher freight rate levels for chemical products within the CITBO database.

 
CITBO time charter rates
 

• As well as the spot market rates, the CITBO data also contain time charter data. These data allow to calculate an index of average time charter rates, based on the rental prices of vessels per day. The quarterly index of average rental prices per day is shown in the following graph. All product segments are taken into account. The index shows an increase at the end of 2022 due to the low water period. In 2023, time charter rates were lower than in 2022, but remained at a higher level than before the 2022 low water period.

 

FIGURE 11: CITBO TIME CHARTER RATES (INDEX Q2 2017 = 100)


Source: CCNR analysis based on CITBO data

• Infrastructure represents a basic need for reliable inland waterway transport. Yearly data for infrastructure maintenance, as well as infrastructure investments, are reported for Rhine and Danube countries.
• Shortfalls in data arise due to varying methodologies in data collection.
• The data presented allow for an analysis per country but do not allow the comparison of trends in maintenance and investment spendings between different countries. For instance, maintenance spending can vary greatly between countries due to the length and nature of the waterway as well as the number of constructions on this waterway.

INTRODUCTION

• In order to ensure a year-round navigability, the state of the inland navigation transport network must enable efficient, reliable and safe navigation for users by ensuring minimum waterway parameters and levels of service (Good Navigation Status). To achieve this goal, IWT infrastructure needs to be constructed, maintained, and upgraded through investments within a coherent corridor vision. It must also consider the growing demand for fast, reliable, high-quality, seamless movement of goods and persons. In this regard, monitoring national investments in IWT infrastructure is essential.
• Maintenance, rehabilitation, and regeneration are key actions towards inland navigation reliability and performance. Any financial support ensuring more efficient maintenance, rehabilitation and regeneration activities positively impact infrastructure. However, it should be borne in mind that these are long-running activities, part of an investment life cycle approach.¹⁷
• Infrastructure spending can be broken down into two main categories: investment and maintenance spending.
• Maintenance spending focuses on already existing infrastructure and its upkeep. Maintenance spending, such as that related to dredging campaigns to maintain guaranteed navigable channel depth, is however, as of today, not eligible for EU co-funding in the context of the Connecting Europe Facility II programme (CEF II). Today, it is the responsibility of Member States to maintain their inland navigation networks, core and comprehensive, which is crucial for the development of the sector. Nevertheless, it is important to note that maintenance spending can vary greatly from one country to another, depending on:
  – the length of the navigable waterway,
  – its nature (free-flowing or not) and,
  – the number of constructions on this waterway (locks and dams generally represent the most important expenditure items).
• Investment spending embraces a new output in new projects such as the enlargement or upgrading of waterways. Such investments are eligible for co-funding at EU level, for instance via CEF II. In legal understanding, an investment must undergo an environmental impact assessment whereas maintenance spending is usually not tied to such legal requirements.
• Investments in port infrastructure are not within the scope of this chapter.

SHORTCOMINGS RELATING TO DATA COLLECTION ON INFRASTRUCTURE SPENDING

• It might be tempting to compare data between countries, but there are some important shortcomings to be discussed to allow for reasonable conclusions. Such shortcomings arise from differing methodologies of data collection and the definitions behind these, but also from differences regarding the types of waterways present in the countries. For example, countries with a high share of free-flowing rivers need a higher amount of maintenance activities than countries with a lower share in this regard. On the other hand, rivers which count numerous locks require high investment spending.
• Regarding differing methodologies, infrastructure maintenance equipment is included for one country under infrastructure maintenance spending but might not be included in another country. This could also partly explain possible discrepancies that may exist between one data source and another. Due to these different methodologies and different types of waterways, it is more advantageous to shed light on the trend for each country. In addition, the differentiation between investment spending and maintenance spending is sometimes not available.
• Another important aspect lies in the competent authorities for data collection. For instance, whereas in Croatia the hydrological institute is responsible for the data collection, in most parts of the Rhine and Danube countries it is the waterway administrations that are responsible.
• Last but not least, it should be mentioned that depending on the inland water CEMT¹⁸ class, the entity responsible for managing infrastructure investment might vary, for instance, it could either be the national authority or the regional authorities. The infrastructure spending related to inland waterways that are under the responsibility of regional authorities, generally regional waterways of CEMT class III or below, might therefore not be reported in the national infrastructure spending data. For those countries that count numerous regional navigable waterways of CEMT class III or below, it is likely that the total amount of infrastructure spending reported in this chapter is underestimated. This would be the case for the Netherlands and Poland.
• These observations call for improving the data collection process, perhaps through the development of harmonised criteria for reporting such infrastructure spending investments at European level.

OVERVIEW PER COUNTRY

RHINE COUNTRIES

• For the Rhine countries, relevant data regarding infrastructure maintenance and investment spending can be retrieved from the OECD. Due to the shortcomings explained in the above section, no country comparisons shall be made. This data serves to carry out a country trend analysis in the two given indicator variables. Note that data for the Netherlands, Switzerland and for infrastructure maintenance spending in Germany, is not available in the OECD data.
• The OECD database encompasses both land and waterside infrastructures. Indeed, it is based on the OECD definition of inland waterway infrastructure (and related costs) which includes both landside and waterway-related components: “Infrastructure includes land, channels and permanent way constructions, buildings, navigation locks, mooring equipment, toll collection installations, as well as immovable fixtures, fittings and installations connected with them (signalisation, telecommunications, etc.) as opposed to IWT vessels”.¹⁹
• Regarding infrastructure maintenance spending in Germany, national data on maintenance spending in waterway transport do not, in most cases, distinguish between inland and maritime waterways, which makes an analysis quite impossible.

 

TABLE 1: INLAND WATERWAY INFRASTRUCTURE MAINTENANCE SPENDING (IN MILLION EUROS)

Country/Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Belgium	65.0	58.0	71.0	66.0	27.0	82.0	103.0	87.5	60.0	61.0	55.0	94.0	n/a
France	60.0	61.0	61.0	61.0	60.0	59.8	59.6	62.2	65.4	65.1	64.2	65.2	68.2
Germany	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Luxembourg	0.3	0.2	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2	0.2	0.2	0.3	0.1	n/a	n/a
Netherlands	544.0	430.5	346.5	266.9	291.9	317.3	398.4	419.7	411.1	463.7	480.9	577.7	635.2
Switzerland	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a


Source: OECD
 

TABLE 2: INLAND WATERWAY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT (IN MILLION EUROS)

Country/Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Belgium	154.0	152.0	152.0	167.0	103.0	291.0	225.0	237.5	197.0	197.0	249.0	562.0	n/a
France	253.2	264.3	236.0	224.4	180.0	164.1	192.3	35.1	226.3	163.0	306.6	349.5	381.0
Germany	1,100.0	1,070.0	780.0	740.0	780.0	730.0	780.0	720.0	760.0	1,000.0	1,220.0	1,090.0	1,270.0
Luxembourg	1.0	1.3	0.7	0.1	0.3	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.1	0.1	0.1	n/a	n/a
Netherlands	252.0	460.7	470.6	558.6	589.7	578.7	357.9	511.0	430.5	532.7	555.7	826.2	810.3
Switzerland	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a


Source: OECD
 

DANUBE COUNTRIES

• For the Danube countries and Czech Republic, relevant data regarding infrastructure maintenance and investment spending in general can also be retrieved from the OECD database. In addition to the OECD data, more detailed data stemming from the FRMMP²⁰ are also available, covering waterside infrastructure only (no landside infrastructure) but discrepancies between the OECD and the FRMMP data exist mainly because of differences in the methodology, scope and definition.

 

TABLE 3: INLAND WATERWAY INFRASTRUCTURE MAINTENANCE SPENDING (IN MILLION EUROS)

Country/Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Austria	n/a	11.0	12.0	17.0	19.0	14.0	12.0	13.0	12.0	13.1	13.4	14.0	14.3
Serbia	13.3	23.0	17.6	16.5	17.3	29.8	28.7	32.9	35.3	43.3	32.6	30.5	40.6
Slovakia	2.0	2.0	3.0	4.0	9.0	3.7	0.3	7.1	1.8	n/a	2.0	2.0	3.0
Republic of Moldova	0.0	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Hungary	3.2	1.6	0.8	0.8	1.3	1.4	2.7	2.2	2.1	2.2	2.0	1.8	2.5
Bulgaria	1.0	1.5	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	1.3	1.4	3.4	3.6	3.6	3.1	2.6
Croatia	0.7	0.8	1.2	1.2	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Czech Republic	1.5	1.8	2.9	4.6	4.5	7.5	6.2	6.5	7.5	12.2	5.3	3.9	6.2


Source: OECD
 

TABLE 4: INLAND WATERWAY INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT (IN MILLION EUROS)

Country/Year	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Austria	11.0	2.0	3.0	11.0	10.0	2.0	2.0	3.0	3.0	4.5	3.7	4.3	7.0
Serbia	21.2	25.8	24.7	15.5	17.7	22.3	40.7	34.3	45.9	49.1	47.2	50.6	55.2
Slovakia	3.0	1.0	1.0	1.0	0.0	0.1	0.1	1.1	1.5	n/a	1.1	0.0	1.0
Republic of Moldova	0.0	0.7	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Hungary	0.8	0.2	0.01	0.1	0.02	0	10.3	0.2	1.1	0.9	3.1	1.1	0.0
Bulgaria	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.5	1.3	0.0	0.2	0.0	0.0	1.0	0.0	0.0
Croatia	2.6	3.5	3.3	1.7	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a
Czech Republic	57.8	22.3	17.2	7.2	9.6	15.1	9.8	7.2	2.8	51.1	55.5	30.2	24.1
Romania	423.5	519.0	279.5	268.1	314.1	505.9	236.9	105.1	189.7	n/a	n/a	n/a	n/a


Source: OECD
 

Figures for freight transport volumes on the Rhine updated in November 2024.
 

• European inland navigation was heavily hit by the difficult macroeconomic circumstances, with volumes decreasing in all main market segments – including containers, a segment previously projected to develop strongly.
• Cargo transport on the entire Rhine (from Basel to the North Sea) amounted to 276.5 million tonnes in 2023, compared to 292.3 in 2022 (-5.4%). In 2023, transport of goods on the Rhine was negatively affected by factors such as reduced aggregate demand due to high inflation, the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine and other geopolitical conflicts leading to a global economic slowdown.
• Container transport on the Rhine was notably reduced by -13.0% in 2023. This decrease reflects a weakness in maritime container transport. Data from the port of Rotterdam show a drop in maritime container throughput by -7%.

TRANSPORT IN EUROPE AND BY COUNTRY (TKM)

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN IWT ON THE NATIONAL TERRITORY OF EACH COUNTRY IN EUROPE – COMPARISON BETWEEN 2022 AND 2023 (IN MILLION TKM) *


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo] and [iww_go_nave], OECD (Switzerland, and the Republic of Moldova), UK Department for Transport
* The share of IWT performance in Europe in 2022 and 2023 for Ukraine and Italy is not available due to a delay in the publication of the data.

 

FIGURE 1: IWT TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE BETWEEN 2017 AND 2023 IN MAIN EUROPEAN IWT COUNTRIES (IN MILLION TKM) *


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo] and [iww_go_qnave], OECD (Switzerland and the Republic of Moldova), UK Department for Transport
* The values for Ukraine, Italy (2022 and 2023) and Serbia (2017) are not available.
Note: for the UK, IWT is defined as non-seagoing traffic which takes place entirely within inland waters and river-sea transport (seagoing vessels navigating partly at sea and on inland waterways). In this figure, for the sake of consistency with the methodology used by Eurostat, only the transport performance related to the traffic taking place wholly within inland waters is reported (amounting to 71 million TKM). However, it is worth noting that most of IWT in the UK consists of river-sea transport (amounting to almost 1.3 billion TKM). Overall, the IWT performance in the UK is reported to reach almost 1.4 billion TKM.

 
• In 2023, in terms of inland navigation for Europe (EU-27 plus Switzerland, Serbia and Republic of Moldova, and excluding Ukraine), freight transport performance decreased by -3.8% compared to 2022. Rhine countries (Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Switzerland) accounted for 80.1% of total inland waterway transport performance in the EU-27, plus Switzerland, Serbia and the Republic of Moldova. The share for Danube countries was 19.6% (excluding Ukraine).

 

FIGURE 2: INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES IN 2023 (IN BILLION TKM) *


Sources: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo] and [iww_go_qnave], OECD (Switzerland and the Republic of Moldova), UK Department for Transport
* Data for Ukraine and Italy were not available for 2022 and 2023.

 
• From the total inland waterway transport performance in Europe in 2023, which amounted to around 116 billion TKM (without Ukraine, Switzerland, Serbia, and Republic of Moldova), 75.1% represented transport that crossed a border in one way or another – whether it be in the form of export, import or transit traffic. Transit traffic taken separately had a share of 18.5% and export and import traffic had a share of 28.8% and 27.8%, respectively.

 

FIGURE 3: YEARLY INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE IN THE EU-27
(IN BILLION TKM) *


Source: Eurostat [iww_go_atygo]
* EU-27 according to member countries in 2023


 
 

TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE BY MAIN EUROPEAN RIVER BASINS




Sources: CCNR analysis based on Destatis, VNF, Eurostat [iww_go_atygo], UK Department for Transport
Figures for the Po are from 2022, the others are from 2023.

 

RHINE BASIN

Figures for freight transport volumes on the Rhine updated in November 2024.
 


 
Transport volume and transport performance on the entire Rhine (from Basel to the North Sea)
• In the past, this chapter reported on the volumes transported on the Traditional Rhine only, namely the Rhine from Basel to the German-Dutch border. From 2023 onwards, it became possible to report on transport volumes on the entire Rhine from Basel to the North Sea.
• Cargo transport on the entire Rhine (from Basel to the North Sea) amounted to 276.5 million tonnes in 2023, compared to 292.3 in 2022 (-5.4%).
  – The Traditional Rhine (from Basel to the German-Dutch border) amounted to 146.1 million tonnes in 2023, compared to 155.5 million tonnes in 2022 (-6.0%).
  – The Rhine delta in the Netherlands (from the German-Dutch border to the North Sea, including the link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link¹⁰) amounted to 227.2 million tonnes in 2023 compared to 237.8 million tonnes in 2022 (-4.5%).
• When calculating the total volume of goods transported on the entire Rhine, all steps were taken to avoid the double counting of volumes transported on both stretches. This is why the volumes on these two stretches cannot simply be added together, as certain volumes are transported on both stretches.

 

FIGURE 4: FREIGHT TRANSPORT VOLUME (IN MILLIONS TONNES) AND TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE (IN MILLION TKM) ON THE ENTIRE RHINE *


Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis and Rijkswaterstaat
* In earlier reports, only the volumes transported on the Traditional Rhine, namely the Rhine from Basel to the German-Dutch border, were reported. From now onwards, it will become possible to report on transport volumes on the entire Rhine from Basel to the North Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link). When calculating the total volume of goods transported on the entire Rhine, all steps were taken to avoid double counting.
 

FIGURE 5: FREIGHT TRANSPORT ON THE TRADITIONAL RHINE AND ON THE LOWER RHINE IN THE NETHERLANDS (IN MILLION TONNES) *


Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis and Rijkswaterstaat
* To avoid double counting, the volumes on the different stretches cannot be added together, as certain volumes are transported on both stretches.
Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the German-Dutch border
Lower Rhine in the Netherlands = Rhine from the German-Dutch border to the North Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)
 
 

Transport activity at different Rhine stretches, on Rhine affluents and on canals linked to the Rhine

• In terms of geographical structure, the transport intensity is highest on the Lower Rhine compared to the Middle and Upper Rhine, as illustrated in Figure 6. This higher intensity on the Lower Rhine can be explained by several reasons:
  – Dense delta network in the Netherlands, with important petroleum and chemical industrial hubs and a high number of container terminals.
  – Important steel and petroleum industrial hub in the Lower Rhine region in Germany.
  – High fairway depths on the Lower Rhine.

 

FIGURE 6 : FREIGHT TRANSPORT ON THE DIFFERENT STRETCHES OF THE RHINE (IN MILLION TONNES) *


Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis and Rijkswaterstaat
* To avoid double counting, the volumes on the different Rhine stretches cannot be calculated together, as certain volumes are present on several Rhine stretches.

 

Rhine transport by cargo segment

• In terms of global cargo transport volumes for the entire Rhine, the segments of mineral oil products, chemicals and sand, stones, gravel, were the top three contributors both in 2022 and 2023.

 

FIGURE 7: CARGO TRANSPORT ON THE ENTIRE RHINE * BY TYPE OF GOODS (IN MILLION TONNES) **




Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis and Rijkswaterstaat
* Entire Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the North-Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)
** For containers: net-weight

 
• Overall, in the year 2023, transport of goods on the entire Rhine was negatively affected by factors such as reduced aggregate demand due to high inflation, the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine and other geopolitical conflicts leading to a slowdown in the global economy. One example is the chemical production in the largest producer country (Germany) which decreased by -11% in 2023, due to less aggregate demand for chemicals. This decrease in production consequently impacted transport of chemical products on thei s entire Rhine (-8.3%).
• Also, for other goods segments, the decrease in inland navigation is explained by the decrease in other sectors of the economy such as world trade. Maritime statistics are representative for world trade, as 75% of all world trade is carried out by seaborne trade.¹¹ From this viewpoint, it is important to refer to maritime container transport in the Port of Rotterdam, which showed a -7% decrease in 2023 compared to 2022. The main reasons for this are lower consumption, lower production in Europe and the loss of volumes from and to Russia due to the sanctions. This rate of decrease is smaller than the rate of decrease in inland container barging on the Rhine (-13.0%). This leads to the conclusion that inland navigation lost market shares in container transport to other transport modes.
• The explanation of the rather positive result for iron ore is the replenishment of iron ore stocks in 2023. Iron ore stocks were replenished after only little iron ore was imported in 2022 due to low steel production. The negative result for agricultural products is due to drought and flooding and the resulting crop failures in the European agricultural sector.¹² Grain harvest results in Rhine countries were therefore low in 2023 (see also Chapter 9, short-term outlook).
• It can also be observed that there was no booming coal transport in 2023, unlike in the previous year. The reason is the drop in demand for coal in the energy sector.
• An analysis of cargo segments split between the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands and the Traditional Rhine enables a better understanding of the dynamics regarding transport of goods per type of products along the Rhine. The Lower Rhine in the Netherlands has a far greater amount of chemicals transport compared to the Traditional Rhine. Container transport as well as transport of sand, stones and gravel are also more intense on the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands. For commodities and final products of the steel industry, as well as coal for the energy sector, the volumes are rather evenly distributed between the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands and the Traditional Rhine.

 

FIGURE 8: CARGO TRANSPORT ON THE RHINE BY TYPE OF GOODS – SPLIT BETWEEN THE LOWER RHINE IN THE NETHERLANDS AND THE TRADITIONAL RHINE IN 2023 (IN MILLION TONNES) *


Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis and Rijkswaterstaat
* Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the German-Dutch border; Lower Rhine in the Netherlands = Rhine from the German-Dutch border to the North Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)

 
• Along with the overall cargo transport on the Rhine, cargo transport and vessel movements are registered at specific measurement points (locks or border points). The relevant volumes represent the transport activity only at these points and do not represent total Rhine transport. However, this approach reveals existing differences in transport intensity between different Rhine stretches, for example between the Lower and the Upper Rhine.

 

TABLE 1: MEASUREMENT POINTS FOR FREIGHT TRANSPORT IN THE RHINE BASIN

Rhine stretch or affluent	Measurement point	Name		Volume of transport (in million tonnes)			Number of cargo vessels passing
			2021	2022	2023	2021	2022	2023
Lower Rhine *	Border DE/NL	Emmerich	134.5	124.9	117.9	106,497	105,886	105,809
Upper Rhine	Border DE/FR	Iffezheim	19.1	16.3	16.0	23,631	24,274	22,272
Wesel-Datteln Canal *	Junction with Rhine	Wesel-Friedrichsfeld	19.1	17.9	16.2	18,961	16,52	15,255
Rhein-Herne Canal *	Junction with Rhine	Duisburg-Meiderich	13.6	12.4	10.7	11,688	15,4	11,079
Main	Junction with Rhine	Mainz-Kostheim	12.1	11.1	11.5	15,213	14,309	13,707
Moselle	Junction with Rhine	Koblenz	9.2	8.8	7.7	8,459	9,106	5,073
Neckar	Junction with Rhine	Mannheim-Feudenheim	5.7	4.5	3.9	5,663	5,484	4,463


Sources: German Waterway and Shipping Administration, Destatis, Moselle Commission
* The source for the volume of transport on the Lower Rhine and on the two canals is the German Statistical Office (Destatis), whereas for all other data in the table, the source is the German Waterway Administration.
 

Container transport on the Rhine

• Between 2018 and 2023, container transport on the Rhine was impacted by a series of negative events:
  – The low water period of 2018 and 2022 caused cargo losses in both years. The 2018 low water period led to modal share losses in the following years.
  – The introduction of new tariffs in world trade in 2019 caused a deterioration in the business environment and in world trade activity, which is impacting both seaborne container throughput as well as inland container barging.
  – In 2021, the overall business environment and world trade were still rather bleak due to disruptions in supply chains and rising inflation.
  – In 2022, the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine broke out, causing high inflation and further disruptions in world trade.
  – A long running factor is the ageing of the population in western Europe.
  – Over all these years, inland container barging suffered also due to congestion in seaports and related delays.

• Measured in million tonnes, the result for container transport on the entire Rhine (from Basel to the North Sea) in 2023 was -13.0% lower than in the year 2022 (-11.6% for the Traditional Rhine and -13.9% for the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands).
• In the TEU unit, the rate of decrease was -10.6% for the entire Rhine (-7.8% for the Traditional Rhine and -12.2% for the Lower Rhine in the Netherlands).

 

FIGURE 9: CONTAINER TRANSPORT ON THE TRADITIONAL RHINE AND THE LOWER RHINE IN THE NETHERLANDS (IN MILLION TONNES, NET WEIGHT OF GOODS IN CONTAINERS), 2014-2023 *


Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis and Rijkswaterstaat
* Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the German-Dutch border; Lower Rhine in the Netherlands = Rhine from the German-Dutch border to the North Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)
 

FIGURE 10: CONTAINER TRANSPORT ON THE TRADITIONAL RHINE AND THE LOWER RHINE IN THE NETHERLANDS (IN MILLION TEU), 2014-2023 *


Source: CCNR analysis based on Destatis and Rijkswaterstaat
* Traditional Rhine = Rhine from Rheinfelden (CH) to the German-Dutch border; Lower Rhine in the Netherlands = Rhine from the German-Dutch border to the North Sea (including link to Antwerp via the Rhine-Scheldt link)

 

DANUBE BASIN

 
Transport volume and transport performance on the Danube
• Cargo transport on the entire navigable Danube between Kelheim (Germany) and the Black Sea via the Danube-Black Sea Canal and the Sulina Canal lies in the range of between 34 and 40 million tonnes per year.¹³ Transport performance on the Danube (EU Danube countries plus Serbia) reached 23.9 billion TKM in 2022, a decrease of -20% compared to 2021.

 

FIGURE 11: FREIGHT TRANSPORT VOLUME (IN MILLION TONNES) AND TRANSPORT PERFORMANCE (IN MILLION TKM) ON THE DANUBE *


Sources: for transport volumes – viadonau, Annual reports on Danube navigation; for transport performance – Eurostat [iww_go_atygo] and [iww_go_qnave] (Serbia)
* Transport performance in IWT in all EU Danube countries
 

Danube transport at specific measurement points

• The waterway administrations register data at certain borders or measurement points which are described in the following table.

 

TABLE 2: MEASUREMENT POINTS FOR DANUBE FREIGHT TRANSPORT

Danube stretch or affluent	Measurement point	Name		Volume of transport (in million tonnes)
			2020	2021	2022	2023
Upper Danube	Border Germany/Austria	Lock of Jochenstein	2.3	2.2	2.2	2.1
Upper Danube	Border Slovakia/Hungary	Lock of Gabčíkovo	5.0	4.9	4.3	4.0
Middle Danube	Border Hungary/Croatia/Serbia	Mohács	6.1	5.8	4.0	3.4
Danube-Black Sea Canal	No specific point, total volumes on the canal are taken into account	Canal authority CAN13	16.5	17.3	17.3	23.4
Sulina Canal	No specific point, total volumes on the canal are taken into account	Waterway administration AFDJ14	4.5	5.1	10.6	16.4


Source: Danube Commission market observation
 
• Due to the high-water depths in the lower Danube section, in particular in the Danube delta region (also known as ‘maritime Danube’), cargo transport in the Lower Danube area attains much higher values than on river sections further upstream.
• This is notably the case for the Danube-Black Sea Canal, running from Cernavodă on the Danube River to Constanţa on the Black Sea (southern arm) and to Năvodari (northern arm) on the Black Sea.
• Another estuary arm is the Sulina Canal, which flows into the Black Sea in the Danube delta region near the Romanian-Ukrainian border. The exceptional increase of transport in 2022 and 2023 for both canals was driven by the need to support Ukrainian exports of grain via alternative routes (‘Solidarity Lanes EU-Ukraine’). In this respect, the Danube Commission undertook a number of initiatives to contribute to solving problems related to the proper functioning of the Lower Danube corridor and to facilitate existing IWT logistics. It also promoted a more active use of the transport potential of the Danube waterway based on a systematic analysis of identified cargo flows and throughput capacity of the ports on the Lower Danube, including the Port of Constanţa.

 

Danube transport by cargo segment

• The Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine led to the emergence of several factors weighing heavily on Danube navigation: the energy crisis, the shortage and rise in iron ore prices, restrictions to the export of grain and other food products as well as rising fuel prices. As a result, in 2023 and for the second year in a row, volumes of transport decreased for almost all cargo segments. For agribulk, the most important cargo segment transported on the Danube, a slight increase was observed in 2023 compared to 2022 (+32.8%), however, still remaining at -70% pre-war levels.

 

FIGURE 12: GOODS TRANSPORT ON THE MIDDLE DANUBE (IN MILLION TONNES) *


Source: Danube Commission market observation
* At Mohács (southern Hungary – border area with Croatia and Serbia)
 
 

CONTAINER TRANSPORT PER COUNTRY IN EUROPE

THE WHOLE EUROPEAN AND GEOGRAPHICAL STRUCTURE

• In 2022, with 12 billion TKM, more than 6 million TEU and over 52 million tonnes of cargo in containers, container transport on EU inland waterways represented 9.8% of the total IWW transport performance of approximately 122 billion TKM in the EU. Moreover, 99.4% of the container transport performance (TKM) took place in Rhine countries (the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France, Switzerland, Luxembourg). Container transport on the Danube accounted for 0.5% and container transport in Sweden accounted for 0.1%.

 

RHINE COUNTRIES

• In 2023, container transport measured in TEU regressed by -12.6% in the Netherlands, by -7.7% in Germany, by -18.7% in Belgium and by -11.1% in France. In the Netherlands, 39.6 million tonnes of cargo were transported in containers (-13.0% compared to 2022), making this country the frontrunner in inland waterway container transport in Europe.

 

FIGURE 13: IWW CONTAINER TRANSPORT PER RHINE COUNTRY (IN MILLION TEU) *


Source: Eurostat [iww_go_actygo] and [iww_go_qcnave]
* In Luxembourg, 17,436; 14,132; 9,995 and 10,750 TEU were recorded for 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively.

 

DANUBE COUNTRIES

• The two Danube countries with the highest container transport are currently Romania and Hungary. In 2023, 3,550 TEU were transported on Hungarian inland waterways. In Romania, container transport amounted to 34,594 TEU in 2023, which was a spurred increase compared to previous years. Considering the weight of cargo, container transport on Hungarian waterways represented 8,000 tonnes in 2023. In Romania, 475,000 tonnes of cargo were transported in containers. These values illustrate the immense gap towards Rhine countries. In 2023, 39.6 million tonnes were transported in containers on inland waterways in the Netherlands, 16.0 million tonnes in Belgium, 16.3 million tonnes in Germany and 3.5 million tonnes in France.

 
 

INLAND NAVIGATION AND OTHER MODES OF TRANSPORT

FIGURE 14: MODAL SPLIT SHARE OF INLAND TRANSPORT MODES IN THE EU-27 (IN %) 2009-2022


Source: Eurostat [tran_hv_frmod]
 
• Over the last decade, modal split shares have overall decreased for IWT and rail at the level of the EU-27, while those of road transport have increased. IWT lost 2.3 percentage points in the last 10 years, to reach 5.1% in 2022, its lowest level since 2005. It is well behind road transport (77.8% in 2022, +4.3 percentage points in the last 10 years) and rail transport (17.1%, -2.0 percentage points in the last 10 years). As many EU countries do not have inland waterways, the overall modal split of IWT at the EU level should not be used as a performance indicator for the success of inland waterway transport in the EU.

 

FIGURES 15 AND 16: IWW MODAL SPLIT EVOLUTION IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES (IN %, BASED ON TONNE-KILOMETRES) *




Source: Eurostat [tran_hv_frmod]
* Share of inland waterway transport performance in total (IWT + Road + Rail) transport performance

 
• Modal split shares of inland waterway transport (IWT) in main IWT countries have decreased in the last decade. In the Netherlands, the modal split share of IWT increased until 2012, to reach a peak at 47.2%. It decreased in the following years, reaching 41.0% in 2022. This decline also took place in Germany, as the IWT modal share fell below the 7.0% mark for the first time since 2005. Within Danube countries, Romania and Bulgaria record high IWT modal shares. However, after a first decrease in 2021, both sustained another strong decrease in their IWT modal shares in 2022 reaching respectively 20.5% (-4.6 percentage points lost to road) and 16.6% (-7.8 percentage points lost to both road and rail).

• The global macroeconomic context in 2023 has shown signs of improvement. Inflation decreased at a very rapid pace, and GDP growth, although relatively low, is steady. Uncertainty is still high however, as world trade has suffered from rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, leading it to stagnate in 2023 despite previous hopeful forecasts.
• In the wake of the pandemic, many countries questioned the free trade paradigm and started to gravitate towards more protectionist policies. The Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine and the resulting fears of natural gas shortages led these countries further towards this situation, with three times as many trade barriers being constructed in 2022 than in 2019. 2023 was no exception, with more than 3000 trade barriers put in place and a rising trend towards friendshoring and an overall fragmentation of trade relations between pro-Russian and anti-Russian countries.
• The price of most commodities has normalised, although the aforementioned tensions in the Middle East let uncertainty linger about the future price of crude oil. Natural gas prices have continued falling but remain in the upper range of historical prices.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW¹

• The global economy is showing signs of recovery in the aftermath of the Covid-19 pandemic and the initial disruptions after the start of the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine, with most indicators pointing to a soft landing. In 2023, economic growth has proven to be surprisingly resilient, given the energy and food crisis caused by the war, the global surge in inflation and the supply chain disruptions caused by the pandemic. Inflation, for that matter, has decreased, and is expected to reach 2% by 2025 in advanced economies, a rate that central banks usually aim for. On the other hand, trade has been subjected to more difficulties, with numerous trade barriers raised among a worldwide restructuration of trade patterns, hindering its recovery.
• Global GDP growth is steady but weak at 3.2% (compared to a pre-pandemic annual average of 3.8%), a rate that is expected to carry on until 2024 and 2025. This relatively low growth is explained by the adoption of restrictive monetary policies to fight inflation, the withdrawal of the exceptional fiscal support granted during the pandemic in many countries, as well as the long-term decline of productivity growth. It is important to note that economic growth is unevenly distributed around the world with, for instance, the GDP growth rate of the United States unexpectedly exceeding its pre-pandemic average. GDP growth in emerging markets should remain strong, stabilising at its current rate of 4.2% from 2024 onwards. In the euro area, growth is slow but resilient at 0.4% in 2023 and is projected to rise to 0.8% in 2024 and 1.5% in 2025, due to strong household consumption and labour markets. Meanwhile, low income and developing countries still show signs of scarring from the numerous crises of recent years, and thus their recovery is expected to be slower and more difficult.
• Inflation – one of the main concerns in relation to a potential recovery of the world economy – has been declining rapidly ever since mid-2022, with the global average headline inflation having fallen from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023 and expected to keep decreasing to 5.9% in 2024 and 4.5% in 2025. The same is true of the countries in the euro area, where the average headline inflation fell from 8.4% in 2022 to 5.4% in 2023 and should reach the 2% target defined by the European Central Bank in 2025. The energy price shocks that used to pull inflation up in the euro area are fading, which is likely to bring it down to this 2% target. The ECB and other central banks around the world should be able to ease their monetary policy as early as the third quarter of 2024, which would encourage private investment and restore purchasing power to consumers, and in turn fuel economic growth.
• Some risks remain, however, as geopolitical uncertainty is still high as the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine rages on and tensions in the Middle East are rising, affecting the safe passage of seagoing ships trough the Red Sea and threatening to prevent the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. This could hinder medium-term economic growth and alter the availability of food and energy, and hence cause a resurgence in inflation. Moreover, the decrease in inflation in the second half of 2022 and 2023 has mostly been due to headline inflation being dragged down by fuel and food prices; meanwhile, core inflation has proven more persistent and could stall disinflation, although it is expected to decline by 1.2% in 2024.

 

FIGURE 1: PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GDP, CONSTANT PRICES


Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, Outlook from April 2024
 

TRADE

• In 2023, global trade followed the same trends as in 2022: a larger-than-expected decline in trade volume (-1.2% from its peak in late 2022)² due to the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine and a shift in the composition of spending from traded goods towards services in the aftermath of the pandemic. Towards the end of the year, the Red Sea crisis further increased the burden on trade, leading it to almost stagnate during 2023 (+0.3%) despite a promising first semester. Global trade is however expected to recover and grow slowly in 2024 and 2025, at a rate below its pre-pandemic average (respectively 3.3% and 3.6%, against a previous average of 4.9%).³
• Indeed, on 19 October 2023, the Houthi movement in Yemen started to attack merchant vessels in the Red Sea. This incident, known as the Red Sea crisis, caused hundreds of ships to alter their course and sail through the Cape of Good Hope to avoid attacks. Despite efforts by the UN Security Council to enforce freedom of navigation, this crisis led to a significant drop in international container transport at the end of the year 2023. In Europe, where 75% of exports usually travel through the Red Sea, the fall was particularly severe. Overall, container throughput in Europe remained stable in 2023 despite a weak second semester and the difficulties caused by the crisis, ending the year with 0.3 percentage points lower than in January. European ports saw the beginning of a recovery at the start of 2024, as their container traffic rose by more than +13% from January to April 2024.⁴ However, this may be temporary, as international tensions and uncertainty remain high, and since this surge may be partly due to prospects of an economic recovery in Europe or ships having sailed around Africa instead of going through the Red Sea.
• Similarly to 2022, 2023 has witnessed a strong reinforcement of trade barriers, with three times as many being created in both years compared to 2019. This, combined with a decline in foreign direct investments and cross-border mergers, as well as a growing trend towards reindustrialisation, is expected to cause increased volatility in the price of commodities, including some that are transported in containers.⁵

 
 

COMMODITY PRICES AND THEIR IMPACT ON INLAND WATERWAY TRANSPORT (IWT)

CRUDE OIL

• Crude oil prices significantly increased between 2021 and mid-2022 due to oil production struggling to catch up with a quickly rising demand after most countries relaxed their pandemic-related restrictions, and to the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine. This, in the same time frame, drove up fuel prices in inland navigation with the crude oil prices. From August 2022 to February 2023, however, the latter fell by -15.7% because of a weaker growth in global demand and a fully caught-up supply. This decrease has continued throughout 2023 (-13.9%, to $83 per barrel) and carried on into early 2024. Financial markets suggest that crude oil prices will decrease by -2.5% year over year, to eventually average $78.60 per barrel by the end of 2024. The Red Sea crisis caused concerns as to the availability of oil imported from the Arabic Peninsula, but the impact on oil quantities and prices for European consumption turned out to be minor.
• Oil price is a leading indicator for the transport sector due to its essential utility for transport activities. The decrease of crude oil prices seen in 2023 and expected in the following years should translate into lower fuel costs for Rhine operators. In addition, the oil price influences the transportation of oil products.

 

FIGURE 2: COMMODITY PRICE INDICES (2016 = 100)


Source: IMF World Economic Outlook Database, Outlook from April 2024
 

GAS AND COAL

• The first six months of 2022 witnessed a significant increase in the prices of gas and coal; the second half of 2022, however, was marked by an equally sharp fall, with gas prices at the European trading hub⁶ plummeting by -76.1% from their record highs of August. This trend carried on until 2023, when natural gas prices at the European trading hub reached $16.7 per MMBtu⁷ in February 2023 as concerns about supply shortages faded. Increased LNG⁸ imports, as well as reduced gas demand due to high prices, an economic slowdown in China, and a substitution to alternative fuel sources such as coal helped prevent any shortage. Moreover, the weather in late 2022 and throughout 2023 was unusually mild – particularly in the winter of 2023 – contributing further to lower gas demand in Europe.
• Overall, Title Transfer Facility trading hub prices in Europe fell by -24.4% from August 2023 to February 2024, where they remained in the upper range of historical prices at $8.10 per MMBtu. Gas prices are however projected to rise slightly and average $9.45 in 2024, before slowly declining again to $8.73 in 2029.

 

AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES AND FOODSTUFF

• Food and beverage prices reached their peak in May 2022, amid the supply disruptions caused by the war in Ukraine. However, their increase slowed down after the Black Sea grain corridor initiative was renewed in November 2022, allowing Ukrainian wheat and other exports to re-enter the global market. Prices remained high, however, spurring increases in wheat production in the European Union and India, among others. The prices of raw agricultural materials declined by -9.1% between August 2022 and February 2023, then fell further during 2023, reaching their pre-pandemic levels by the end of the year due to abundant global supplies.

 

METALS

• After a first rise in 2021 and 2022, the base metal price index decreased below levels preceding the start of the Russian full-scale invasion and war of aggression against Ukraine. Slowing Chinese metal demand was an additional factor in this decline, as China usually accounts for approximately half of the global consumption of major metals. However, China’s reopening of economic and ports activities and increased infrastructure spending led to a record steel production, causing base metal prices to rise by +4.7% between August 2023 and February 2024 (after already increasing by +19.7% between August 2022 and February 2023).

ECONOMIC SENTIMENT – CONSUMER CONFIDENCE

• Consumer confidence provides an indication of developments of households’ consumption and savings. An indicator above 100 signals a boost in the consumers’ confidence towards the future economic situation and points to consumers being more inclined to spend money. Values below 100 indicate a pessimistic attitude towards future developments in the economy, possibly resulting in a tendency to save more and consume less.
• After a slight rise in the last months of 2022, consumer confidence started to degrade slowly from January 2023, before crumbling in March. The Economic Sentiment Indicator eventually reached a drop in October 2023 at 93.6, before reverting back to 95.9 in December 2023, a recovery mostly attributed to improved confidence among retailers, as well as the services and the construction sectors. It is still below its long-term average of 100, under which it lapsed in mid-2022.

MAIN CONSEQUENCES FOR RHINE AND DANUBE NAVIGATION IN BRIEF

• Despite a recovering European economy and falling inflation, Rhine and Danube navigation still declined in 2023, after a difficult year 2022. This is due to lingering geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East as well as structural shifts in global trade, with a high number of barriers being implemented and a trend towards onshoring and friendshoring.⁹ Commodity prices have stabilised after months of high volatility, but gas prices remain high.

• The year 2023 saw a strong decrease in steel production, but a small increase in iron ore transport, in both Rhine and Danube countries. Steel production is expected to rebound in 2024, although remaining less active than prior to the pandemic. Although the prices of most of the main agricultural goods decreased worldwide, their production in Europe stagnated. The chemicals sector is still suffering from economic and geopolitical uncertainty, but early signs of a recovery from 2025 are visible, though uncertain.
• The last six years have been difficult for container transport in Europe due to the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the low water episodes in 2018 and 2022 and more recently the stagnation of world trade. A recovery may be on the horizon, however, as early 2024 figures suggest an end to this long-lasting decline and the return to growth, however slow it may be.
• The long-term forecasts point to a stagnation or slow rise of the output in almost all main market segments across Rhine and Danube countries. The most notable exception is coal, where the demand will probably continue to decrease, as European countries strive to move towards renewable energy sources.

• Inland waterway transport in its present structure relies on traditional market segments. Examples are the steel, agricultural, chemical and food segments.

 

SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK FOR IWT MARKETS IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES

STEEL AND IRON ORE

• On the entire Rhine, around 17% of all cargo transport is related to steel production (iron ore, scrap steel, coking coal, metals, metal products). On the Danube, this share is even higher and amounts to 40% for the Middle Danube.
• Iron ore transport on the Rhine in general follows the same downward trend as steel production, despite a small divergence in 2023, due to a replenishment of stocks for iron ore. Steel production in Rhine countries decreased by -9.4% in 2023 compared to 2022, while transport of iron ore on the entire Rhine increased by +2.5%.

 

FIGURES 1 AND 2: STEEL PRODUCTION IN RHINE COUNTRIES AND TRANSPORT OF IRON ORE ON THE ENTIRE RHINE

Figures for transport of iron ore on the entire Rhine updated in November 2024.
 




 
Sources: World Steel Association, Eurofer, Destatis, Rijkswaterstaat, CCNR analysis
 
• Steel production in Danube countries⁶² amounted to 16.4 million tonnes in 2023, a decrease of -8.2% compared to 2022.

 

FIGURES 3 AND 4: STEEL PRODUCTION IN DANUBE COUNTRIES AND TRANSPORT OF IRON ORE ON THE LOWER DANUBE *



 
Sources: World Steel Association, Eurostat [iww_go_atygo]
* Lower Danube = Romania and Bulgaria
Data for Middle Danube countries were mostly missing.

 
Outlook for the iron ore and steel segment
• According to Eurofer, 2023 was still marked by persistent negative factors such as the conflict in Ukraine or rises in energy prices and production costs, which led to a contraction of steel demand (-9%). Improvements are foreseen for 2024 but volumes are still expected to be below pre-pandemic levels.
• However, despite these persisting adverse factors, steel-using sectors’ output has continued to grow in 2023 (+1.1%). Nevertheless, in 2024, steel-using sectors’ output is projected to drop (-1%), mainly due to the second recession in a row in the construction sector, before picking up again in 2025 (+2%).
• As to developments observed in 2023 and foreseen in 2024-2025 for important steel-using sectors:
  – The construction sector has experienced a negative trend throughout 2023 (-1%) due to multiple factors. This should continue impacting the sector in 2024, with a stronger drop foreseen (-1.9%). A recovery is expected in 2025 (+2.7%).
  – The automotive sector’s output remained below the pre-pandemic levels in 2023 due to rising trade tensions and a downturn in the manufacturing sectors. But there has been a continued output increase since Q2 2022 which was linked to consumer resilience. Indeed, demand for EU passenger car vehicles has improved consistently throughout 2023, supported by easing energy prices. However, the sector is foreseen to experience a marginal contraction in output in 2024 (-0.4%) and a modest growth in 2025 (+0.8%).⁶³
• The World Steel Association points out that the global economy continues to show resilience despite persistent economic downturns such as geopolitical uncertainties, high inflation and high costs. However, in the near future, the negative impacts of these factors are predicted to take their toll on global steel demand growth which should remain weak, as well as on market volatility which should remain high.
• The EU remains the region currently facing the biggest challenges, which resulted in a major drop in the region’s steel demand in 2023. However, the World Steel Association foresees a rebound of demand (+1.7%) in 2024 and a more meaningful recovery in 2025 (+5.3%).⁶⁴

 

AGRICULTURAL AND FOOD PRODUCTS

• Agricultural and food products have a share of around 10% in Rhine navigation and around 23% in Danube navigation. In general, agricultural transport on inland waterways in one specific year is partly determined by harvest results in the previous year. This effect is due to the stockpiling of harvest products.

 

FIGURES 5 AND 6: GRAIN HARVEST PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN RHINE COUNTRIES



Source: Eurostat [apro_cpsh1] and [iww_go_atygo]
 

FIGURES 7 AND 8: GRAIN HARVEST PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORT OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS IN DANUBE COUNTRIES



Source: Eurostat [apro_cpsh1] and [iww_go_atygo]
Missing data for Serbia in 2023

 
Outlook for the agri-food segment
• The war disrupted the Ukrainian and Russian grain exports, mainly due to the closure of Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea, and sanctions imposed on Russia. The increase in prices for agricultural commodities that followed lasted until the end of July 2022. In August 2022, the Black Sea ports were reopened. The supply shortage disappeared, bringing prices down to their pre-crisis levels. Until the end of 2022, maize and barley prices remained at the pre-crisis level, while wheat prices continued a downward trend.⁶⁵ Between April 2023 and April 2024, prices for barley, maize and soft wheat followed a downward
  trend.⁶⁶

 

• Wheat
  For soft wheat,⁶⁷ an increase is observed on a worldwide scale, as well as for the EU-27 and for France. The situation is very different for hard wheat.⁶⁸ In the harvest season 2023/24, worldwide harvest volumes of hard wheat have reached their lowest level since 2001/02. Smaller harvest volumes are observed for major exporting countries. Also in the European Union, the harvest volume of hard wheat is below the five-year average.

 

• Barley
  Worldwide production is foreseen to decrease in the 2023/24 season, to 146 million tonnes. Also, in the EU-27, barley production is smaller compared to the five-year average. In France however, an increase is observed.

 

• Maize
  Harvest results are expected to increase by +6.1% in the 2023/24 season on a worldwide scale. In the EU-27 and in France in particular, harvest production is smaller than in the 2022/23 season.

 

TABLE 1: HARVEST VOLUMES IN THE SEASON 2023/24 COMPARED TO FIVE-YEAR AVERAGES

Harvest season 2023/24 in million tonnes	World	EU-27	France
Soft wheat	758.4	125.6	35.0
5-year average	750.0	124.1	34.4
Hard wheat	31.4	7.0	1.3
5-year average	34.0	7.6	1.5
Maize	1,227	62.3	11.9
5-year average	1,157	66.4	12.2
Barley	146.0	47.5	12.3
5-year average	154.0	52.4	11.6


Sources: FranceAgriMer April 2024, Banque CIC agriculture, European Commission, Service de la statistique et de la prospective (SSP) du Ministère de l’Agriculture et de la Souveraineté alimentaire (France)

 

CHEMICALS

• As in 2022, the European chemical sector in 2023 continued to be impacted by the consequences of the war in Ukraine, in particular higher costs of energy and feedstock, the recession in Europe, and inflation – although decreasing – affecting the entire chemical value chain overall. Ultimately, while many in the chemical industry had anticipated a modest rebound in production in 2023, several chemical companies revised their expectations downwards. This phenomenon was worldwide and did not only affect the EU. Chemicals production worldwide grew by +2.3% in 2023, a result mostly attributable to Russia, China, and India while the usually strong USA chemicals sector, for example, has only grown by +1%.⁶⁹
• Within the total transport performance, the share of chemicals amounts approximately to 17% on the Rhine and 11% on the Danube. The transport performance for chemicals in Rhine countries has remained at somewhat stable levels over the last five years, with significant drops in 2018 (low water effect) and 2022 (as a consequence of the war in Ukraine and the low waters).
• In Rhine countries, chemical production came under heavy pressure in 2019 and 2020 from the Covid-19 pandemic, after which it recovered slightly in 2021. However, in 2022, the invasion of Ukraine was followed by important increases in the price of the sector’s petrochemical input factors, causing chemical production to drop sharply in 2022. This phenomenon continued in 2023. Indeed, the chemicals sector is very resource-intensive and the largest energy consumer in Europe, being severely impacted by the repercussions of the war.
  In Danube countries, the decreasing trend which had already started in 2022 for chemical production continued in 2023.
  For both rivers, the trend in transport demand roughly followed the trend in production.

 

FIGURES 9, 10, 11 AND 12: INDEX OF CHEMICAL PRODUCTION AND TRANSPORT OF CHEMICAL PRODUCTS IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES








Source: Eurostat [sts_inpr_a], [iww_go_atygo]
Missing data for France for chemical products transport in 2023.

 
Outlook for the chemical segment
• Given that 88% of all chemical products in the EU are produced in only eight countries, of which four are Rhine countries (Germany, the largest producer, followed by France, the Netherlands and Belgium), the development of the chemical sector in Rhine countries strongly influences the EU chemical sector. Overall, in 2023, chemical production in the EU fell by -8% compared to 2022, an even larger decline than in 2022 compared to 2021 (-6.2%).⁷⁰
• Any precise forecast is difficult to establish as the war in Ukraine is still ongoing, creating much uncertainty in the price and availability of energy (mainly gas) and feedstock. Moreover, the main drivers of the chemical sector, such as the automotive industry and the construction sector, have risen slightly or remained stagnant since October 2023 and May 2023 respectively. Despite this mixed outlook, confidence in the chemicals sector started to rise again in February 2024 as the trade balance is slowly recovering, and destocking seems to be coming to an end.⁷¹ Confidence is still low however and remains well below its pre-war Ukraine levels, with 45% of companies not expecting any improvement until 2025 at the earliest, and 15% of these being unprofitable.⁷² Indeed, energy prices remain high, with gas prices in Europe having stabilised at 50% over their pre-war levels despite a year-long fall that started in August 2022. The American and Chinese competition is strong, as energy prices are much lower (3.9x lower in the USA than in Europe,⁷³) creating an additional hurdle on the way to recovery. Moreover, a rebound of chemical production is expected for the American chemical industry, which should grow even stronger in 2025 and 2026 as some materials and chemicals are needed to support the energy transition, from battery materials and refrigerants to solvents and lubricants.⁷⁴

 

CONTAINERS

• Container transport in inland navigation has been declining for several years. The years 2018 and 2022 witnessed two extended periods of low water levels that restricted navigating the Rhine more in terms of volumes and led to a certain reverse modal shift regarding container transport. Moreover, the invasion of Ukraine by Russia in 2022 had a significant impact on trade either directly – by hindering Ukraine’s capability to trade – or indirectly – by causing a cascade of geopolitical fragmentations that weakened trade between countries which sided with Russia and those that opposed it.⁷⁵ Finally, in the aftermath of the pandemic, the consumption of goods has slowed down, while the consumption of services has increased, which also contributed to a negative impact on container transport.

 

FIGURES 13 AND 14: INDEX OF CONTAINER THROUGHPUT IN THE WORLD AND IN THE NORTHERN RANGE (2015= 100) AND IWW CONTAINER TRANSPORT IN EUROPE (IN TEU)




RWI/ISL Container Throughput Index, Eurostat [iww_go_actygo]
 
• Despite these difficult circumstances, a recovery might be on the horizon as container transport in Northern Range ports,⁷⁶ witnessed significant increases in container throughput: +3 percentage points in February and +11.2 percentage points in March 2024⁷⁷ (compared to January and February 2024 respectively). These figures point to an end of the long-lasting decline in container throughput in these European maritime ports that started in November 2023, after the first attacks by Houthi rebels on cargo ships in the Red Sea. Furthermore, maritime transport growth is expected to grow in line with trade, stabilising at around +3% per year from 2024 onwards in the short term. However, this growth for container transport remains low compared to the pre-pandemic average of +4.9%⁷⁸ and, regarding Europe, might also be partly due to the arrival of vessels avoiding the Red Sea and to the economic recovery in the Eurozone.
• The outlook for container transport in inland navigation is thus mixed, as geopolitical tensions remain high, and Europe is still recovering from a difficult macroeconomic context. While a short-term recovery appears possible, expectations should be moderated, with growth expected to remain lower than previously predicted as well as lingering uncertainty.

 

OUTLOOK FOR RIVER CRUISES

• The new building activity for river cruises in Europe remained low in 2023, and the active fleet shrank from 410 vessels in 2022 to 408 in 2023. Order books are however filling up, with an increasing number of cruise vessels being planned to be put in circulation in 2024 and 2025; this may mark the beginning of a reversal of the downward trend in the construction of new river cruise vessels observed since 2019.
  At the European level, business expectations for the upcoming season are positive as an increase in the number of river cruises is foreseen for the 2024 season. In addition, in line with the increase in passenger numbers, higher revenue is also expected for the 2024 season.⁷⁹
• Concerning projections for 2024 in France, on the one hand, the river cruise branch is optimistic as to the development of their activity, on the other hand, half of the operators feel worried about a decrease of reservations during the Olympic Games, a deterioration of margins due to higher operating costs and staff shortage. Nevertheless, these obstacles should not hinder investment, as 78% of the managers who took part in the survey expressed their will to invest in modernising or renewing boat installations and equipment.⁸⁰

 
 

LONG RUN OUTLOOK FOR IWT MARKETS IN RHINE AND DANUBE COUNTRIES

• Transport demand in IWT is derived from the development of underlying economic sectors and branches such as the construction and the energy sectors, the steel industry, the petrochemical and chemical industry, etc. In order to analyse the long- term development of transport demand according to goods segments, it is therefore crucial to look at long-term trends for the production of the respective goods.
• The forecasts below were established on the basis of data from Oxford Economics from January 2024. These forecasts do not therefore take into account events which took place after this date.

 

TABLE 2: SHARE OF MAJOR GOODS SEGMENTS WITHIN RHINE TRANSPORT

Product segment	Share in % in 2022	Share in % in 2023	Average share 2014-2023 in %
Mineral oil products	20.4	22.1	20.6
Chemicals	16.8	16.2	15.2
Sands, stones, gravel	16.4	17.2	17.3
Container	11.2	10.2	10.9
Coal	9.5	7.3	9.0
Agribulk and food products	9.4	9.4	9.2
Iron ore	7.3	7.9	7.6
Metals	5.0	5.0	4.8


Source: CCNR calculation based on Destatis and Rijkswaterstaat
 
• For the Danube, the major goods segments with the highest shares are agricultural products, food products and iron ores. Due to a great deal of missing data, it is not possible to indicate the exact shares per goods segment for the Danube.

 

AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND FISHERIES

• A strong correlation between harvest results and inland waterway transport of agricultural products has been found. As an example, Germany witnessed the rise in both these variables between 2008 and 2014 before falling, then somewhat stabilising in 2019. The same kind of correlation has been observed in France between 2014 and 2019.
• While IWT is the preferred mode of transport for long-distance shipping of agricultural and food products according to large shipping companies interrogated as part of a Royal HaskoningDHV study, the 2020 decade is likely to witness a decline in its use. Indeed, the period 2020-2030 is seen as a transition period for agriculture, with a trend towards smaller scale, more localised production. This tendency, coupled with a reduction in the number of small vessels (in which grain is most often carried), could negatively affect the volumes of agricultural products travelling on inland waterways.
• Long-term forecasts for the production of agricultural products foresee a decreasing trend in Germany, but an increasing trend in France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland. The gross real output in this sector is foreseen to decrease by -10% between 2023 and 2050 in Germany. For France, a growth of +11% is expected, +28% for the Netherlands, +7% for Belgium and +8% for Switzerland.

 

FIGURE 15: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY AND FISHERY PRODUCTS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• The output of the sector is forecast to fall by -24% in Bulgaria and by -15% in Croatia between 2023 and 2050. It is however expected to increase in Austria (+38%), Slovakia (+25%), Hungary (+6%) and Romania (+2%) in the same time period.

 

FIGURE 16: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF AGRICULTURAL, FORESTRY AND FISHERY PRODUCTS IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLAR)


Source: Oxford Economics
 

COAL

• The volume of coal transported on inland waterways is expected to decrease strongly in the next two decades, as European countries progress further in their energy transition. Germany, for example, has planned to close all of its coal power plants by 2038; as a result, the country’s coal imports fell significantly in 2019 (-15%), despite a slight increase in global trade of coal (+0.7%). The same dynamic has been observed in France, as well as in all Danube countries, where coal consumption is forecast to fall to historically low levels in the long run, even for major consumers such as Bulgaria and Romania. In western Europe, Germany has the largest coal consumption and is dependent on coal imports, which are, to a large extent, transported on the Rhine. Despite a short run boom in coal consumption in 2022, the long run outlook for coal demand is negative. Until the year 2050, the outlook for domestic coal demand points to a -89% decrease in Germany. For France, the expected decrease is -82%. For the Netherlands, the reduction is -86%, -73% for Belgium and -68% for Switzerland.

 

FIGURE 17: COAL, DOMESTIC DEMAND IN RHINE COUNTRIES, ANNUALISED (IN MILLION TONNES)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• As for the Rhine countries, coal consumption in countries in the Danube region is expected to follow the same downward trend despite a slight uptake during the Covid-19 pandemic. From 2023 to 2050, the domestic demand for coal is forecast to fall by -75% in Austria, -86% in Croatia, -79% in Hungary, and -64% in Slovakia. The two countries where demand is currently the greatest (Romania and Bulgaria) are expected to witness an even more severe downtrend (-95% and -93% respectively).

 

FIGURE 18: COAL, DOMESTIC DEMAND IN DANUBE COUNTRIES, ANNUALISED (IN MILLION TONNES)


Source: Oxford Economics
 

CONTAINERS

• It is estimated that about 75% of traded goods are shipped by sea.⁸¹ Container transport, in turn, is the dominant mode of transport in maritime trade: nearly 66% of goods transported by sea are containerised.⁸² In the absence of more specific data, and because container transport on inland waterways tends to reflect seaborne container transport and world trade, we are thus using the sum of all imports and exports of goods per country as a proxy to analyse the evolution of container transport on the Rhine. Danube countries are excluded, as container transport on the Danube is exceedingly rare. Similarly, we will use information related to world trade for our outlook for container transport in Europe.
• Container transport is likely to experience a steady growth in western Europe. The highest growth rate between 2023 and 2050 is expected to be seen in Switzerland (+109%). Germany should remain the country with the highest trade value, with an increase of almost +65% in the value of both its exports and imports. The growth of trade value in other western European countries is forecast to be similar to Germany’s, with an increase of +60% in Belgium, +63% in the Netherlands, and +75% in France.
• World trade is expected to recover from the current economic slowdown and geopolitical tensions and grow in volume at a steady rate, despite a structural rearrangement of trade flows due to the said tensions. Indeed, recent years have seen a marked interest in friendshoring and onshoring. The underlying reasons behind this are not only linked to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and with the concerns they caused regarding the apparent weakness of supply chains, but also to environmental concerns.
• Whether friendshoring will last and change the face of world trade in the long run is difficult to say. If it does, it will certainly cause an increase in container trade within Europe, as most European countries are geographically close to each other and generally entertain cordial diplomatic relations within the EU, making friendshoring and onshoring in the future likely. According to the IMF, trade growth between blocs – defined as western countries on the one hand and China, Russia, and countries that sided with Russia following its invasion of Ukraine on the other hand – has decreased by -4.9 percentage points on average between two periods: following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (from Q2-2022 to Q3-2023) and the five years leading up to it (from Q1-2017 to Q1-2022).⁸³

 

FIGURE 19: YEARLY SUM OF REAL IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF GOODS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN EUROS – IN BILLION EUROS)


Source: Oxford Economics
Switzerland’s exports and imports value was converted from 2015 Swiss francs to 2015 euros. France’s exports and imports value was converted from 2014 euros to 2015 euros using the European Central Bank’s reported inflation rate of 0.03%.
 

CHEMICALS

• Inland waterway transportation is likely to remain in a strong position for the transport of chemicals, as other modes of transport are generally not considered viable, with the exception of pipelines. The chemical industry supplies clients from many economic sectors, especially in agriculture (fertilizers), plastics, automotive, construction, and paper and pulp industries. Moreover, the worldwide trend towards reindustrialisation and friendshoring is planned to be encouraged by the European Commission’s Green Deal Industrial Plan, which should ensure consistent outputs for the chemicals industry.
• The transport of chemicals is a growth market in IWT. This is confirmed by the development of chemical production in Europe. It can be expected that the transport of chemicals on inland waterways will grow in line with the growing production of chemicals. Moreover, the chemical industry is estimated to support more than 75% of all emission reduction technologies needed to reach the 2050 net-zero goals, which will likely drive demand and production in the coming decades.⁸⁴
• In Germany and France, real gross output of chemical production is expected to grow by +25% between 2023 and 2050. A growth rate of +42% is foreseen for the Netherlands and of +17% for Belgium. For Switzerland, a decrease of -6% is foreseen.

 

FIGURE 20: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF CHEMICALS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• Bulgaria, currently the biggest chemicals producer in central and eastern Europe, is expected to experience a sharp increase in its sectorial output by 2050, placing it well ahead of the other countries, with a growth rate of +80%. While the other countries are foreseen to witness similar or even greater growth rates, their production is likely to remain far behind Bulgaria’s: +34% for Austria; +76% for Hungary, +92% for Croatia, +98% for Romania, and +113% for Slovakia.

 

FIGURE 21: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF CHEMICALS IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 

CONSTRUCTION MATERIAL, SAND, STONES, GRAVEL

• Shippers believe that inland waterway transport will remain the main mode of transport for construction materials such as gravel, sands, stones and others. No major modal shift is expected, but as larger companies are being created by mergers and acquisitions, the number of smaller concrete mortar plants and smaller sand and gravel companies along small waterways is expected to diminish. As larger entities concentrate along the waterways and look for more economies of scale, the demand for smaller vessels should also decrease. The upcoming years anticipate a surge in sand and gravel availability due to dredging efforts to expand rivers, coinciding with a growing demand for materials for dike reinforcement in the face of climate risks.
• The transport demand depends strongly on the activity of the construction sector. According to the outlook of Oxford Economics, the inflation-adjusted real output in Germany will grow by +37% between 2023 and 2050. For France, the expected growth rate of real output in the construction sector is +13%, +27% in the Netherlands, +19% in Belgium and +24% in Switzerland.

 

FIGURE 22: REAL GROSS OUTPUT IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• The construction sector is expected to grow by +56% in Bulgaria, +36% in Croatia, +54% in Hungary, +44% in Romania, and +42% in Slovakia between 2023 and 2050. Austria’s construction sector, currently the biggest in central and eastern Europe, is forecast to catch up and be followed closely by Romania’s, with respective growth rates of +29% and +44% in the same time frame.

 

FIGURE 23: REAL GROSS OUTPUT IN THE CONSTRUCTION SECTOR IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 

PETROLEUM PRODUCTS AND COKING COAL

• As countries progress through their energy transition, the demand for oil products is however expected to continue its current downward trend, leading to a decline in its transport through inland waterways. Even though there are financial and technical barriers to the development of carbon neutral propulsion technologies, it is assumed that oil products will gradually be phased out from the propulsion mix in the next two decades. Data from the port of Antwerp shows that mineral oil products volumes have been declining continuously since 2013, while the volume of transported chemicals has risen greatly.
• For the production of petroleum products (liquid fuels, heating oil) and coking coal or coke, a decrease is foreseen until 2050. This is explained by the gradual transition to alternative energy sources in the transport sector which is expected to lead to a decrease in the demand for petroleum products (refined liquid fuels). Concerning coking coal, a transition towards carbon free steel production is likely, which is also expected to lead to a decrease in the demand for coking coal in the future.
• For Germany, the outlook shows a decrease in the production of both products together of -37% until 2050. For France, a decrease of -49% is foreseen, and a decline of -47% for the Netherlands and for Belgium. Switzerland has a very low production level of petroleum products, which is the reason for rather high imports via the Rhine.

 

FIGURE 24: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF COKE AND REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• A similar outlook is foreseen in eastern Europe and Austria, with a decline in petroleum products and coke production: -2% in Romania, -8% in Slovakia, -26% in Hungary, and -29% in Austria. The only country where these sectors are expected to grow by 2050 is Bulgaria, with a +17% growth rate.

 

FIGURE 25: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF COKE AND REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 

STEEL AND IRON ORE

• As a circular economy is expected to play a more important role in the future, Dutch shipping companies have communicated strong opinions on higher metals recycling rates and a subsequent decline in steel demand and production across western Europe. This could cause a decline in the transportation of steel, but also iron ore, as it will likely be replaced by recycled steel and less emission intensive production technologies. However, the demand for high quality steel is increasing in developing countries, which could make steel remain an important input in European industry.
• In cases where steel production is located along inland waterways, a high waterborne transport of iron ore, coking coal and steel products is observed. Germany is the largest steel producing country in Europe and the Rhine is an important transport route for iron ore and steel products.
• Between 2023 and 2045, the outlook for German steel production points to a slight decline by -6%. For France, an increase of +22% is foreseen but based on a much lower absolute level of steel production. For the transport of iron ore and steel on inland waterways, the Belgian, French and German steel production is of high relevance as the steel industry in these countries is often located along inland waterways. This is not the case for Dutch and Swiss steel industry.

 

FIGURE 26: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF IRON AND STEEL IN RHINE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics
 
• Austria is expected to remain an important player in the steel sector along the Danube, with an +11% growth rate between 2023 and 2050. Romania’s steel production, after two sharp drops in the early 2000s and in 2020, is forecast to recover by 2050, growing by +68%. The forecasts from Oxford Economics point to high growth rates across central and eastern Europe: +47% for Hungary, +67% for Croatia, +47% for Bulgaria, and +44% for Slovakia.

 

FIGURE 27: REAL GROSS OUTPUT OF IRON AND STEEL IN DANUBE COUNTRIES (2015 PRICES IN DOLLARS – IN BILLION US-DOLLARS)


Source: Oxford Economics